Pick Someone on the Other Team and Play Defense- Everything I Know about Football is Wrong

It's been a while since I've given someone a good, hard fisking, as Rick Morrissey seems to have eased up on the Bears and his replacement of DOOM, Rick Telander, seems more clueless than smug like Rick #1, so I've found him too boring for my wrath. Last week, however, someone dropped me a gold mine from a fellow blog, one known for it's frequent moaning and groaning over everything from Cristobal Huet to (hehe) "professional" wrestling. This piece, entitled "Why the Bears will Suck This Year", simply calls out to me, so without further ado, the man known only as FroDog shall be in italics:

I have seen all I need of the Chicago Bears this season.

Well that's nice. So I can assume you won't be doing this the rest of the fall?

I know it’s only the preseason but judging from last year’s preseason, the average fan indeed can tell how their team will do just by watching the third game of the preseason.

Dennis Green approves this sentence.

Now before I get to anything else, I want to point something out before fuck tards like Irish Yeti come here (The worse site on the internet) to point out certain stats.
Always professional to call out individual readers. Fuck you, Mike D. Also, fuck those guys and their stats. Damn stats. THE AVERAGE FAN KNOWS WHAT HE SEES WITHOUT YOUR NUMBERS, EGGHEAD.

One stat that I think he will point is the 1985 Bears team that was winless in their preseason yet went to win the Super Bowl that year.

That's true. It's also true that in the Bears last 10 playoff seasons, they've had winning records in the preseason only 4 times. While I've mentioned before that correlation =/= causation, that should at least be evidence enough that the preseason does not matter one god damn bit. Also, the 2008 0-16 Lions? 4-0 in the preseason.

The response I have to say to that is those two teams are totally different.

Seriously. Would you believe there's not a single member of the 1985 Bears on the 2010 roster?

The 1985 team had a better team.

Careful on that limb, son.

This 2010 team could be the worse we have seen since the 2002 team that went 4-12 in my opinion.
It could also be much better. Because, you know, they haven't played a game yet.

Even last year, myself along with the guys over at Fire Ron Turner (Now Fire Mike Martz) were saying that this team just doesn’t look like a contender even with Jay Cutler at quarterback.

Congratulations. Really. Go celebrate with Morrissey.

We were worried about the offensive line which turned out to be shitty. We worried about the secondary. That turned out to be a disaster. And we worried about the defense as a whole which once again turned into a shit fest.

So you worry about everything? And you lucked out in a bad year? That's the great thing about saying every part of a team will suck. You're always going to be right about something.

Yes. Brian Urlacher was a factor in that shitty defense. But even with him, they probably win one or two more games which puts them at the bubble of the playoffs.
So they didn't look like a contender before the season with Brian Urlacher presumably healthy, but if Brian Urlacher had been healthy they'd have been a contender? Mind. Blown.

Just like last year, the same questions are there for this 2010 Chicago Bears team:

This is just a really, really bad sentence.

1. If Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith knew the offensive line sucked the last couple years, why haven’t they tried to make it better?

Okay, pay attention to this sentence. Which I have bolded for emphasis.

Yes. They draft Chris Williams though they knew he had back problems. That was a bust. They signed Frank Omiyale and that hasn’t done much. So I can’t say they aren’t trying

Holy shit. YOU JUST ASKED WHY THEY HAVEN'T TRIED? It took the kid two lines to contradict himself.

but unfortunately, they haven’t signed the right players. Due to the lack of a decent offensive line, we will not know how well Jay Cutler can be on this team.

How well Cutler can be? Are you worried about his health? I mean we're all concerned about the injury risk, but I think he's okay. Is it the diabetes? Are you Wilford Brimley?

God knows I've been angrier than most at Jerry Angelo's failure to address the offensive line over the last decade. The problem isn't his refusal to sign free agents to address the problem. Hell, most of them have worked out for at least a few seasons (John Tait, Fred Miller, Roberto Garza, etc.). The problem is his failure to DRAFT good offensive linemen. Apparently Fro just thinks there's a heaping pile of pro-bowl linemen out there that Angelo passed on in favor of Frank Omiyale.

2. Will Charles Tillman ever learn how to actually play cornerback?

Say what?

This guy has won some games for the Bears. No doubt about it. He can cause fumbles and get the occasional interception.

Oh, so he forces turnovers and helps win games. What position was he playing when he did all this, since he can't play cornerback?

However as I stated in the past, if you ask him to actually cover a receiver, you are basically fucked as a team.

THE AVERAGE FAN CAN SEE THIS! Never mind the fact that opposing QB's quarterback ratings were over 30 points lower when throwing to Tillman's side of the field. FRO SAW HIM GET BEAT THAT ONE TIME. IN THE THIRD PRESEASON GAME. Case. Closed.

Football is a simple game to figure out. It’s 11 on 11. A player should be able to pick someone on the other team and play defense.

Oh. My. God. This is diamond-encrusted gold. Remember where you are at this exact moment, because you will never see football the same way again. This is absolute brilliance. But what if the safety decides to cover the left guard? What if the entire team decides to cover the X receiver? Is the defense supposed to yell out who they have before each snap? I think the offense might figure that one out. Thank God we have Fro and his AVERAGE FAN OBSERVATIONS to completely refute the concept of a zone defense.

3. The defense as a whole. .

Glad you're specific.

Is Brian Urlacher finished? It sure looks like it.

He sat out of two meaningless games, and therefore will never play again.

Even before his injury last year, he looked slow on reading the offense.

How the hell could you tell that? Do you have any idea what schemes Urlacher was calling out to his guys? Now, in 2008 Urlacher had more trouble than usual shedding blockers and making plays from sideline to sideline, as he has slowed down. But he was still a sure tackler, and the one thing that was EXTREMELY noticeable last year, particularly during the Falcons game when the entire defense was out of place multiple times after Matt Ryan went to the hurry up, was that Urlacher's ability to get guys in the right place was sorely, sorely missed.

How about the rest of the linebackers? Lance Briggs always seems to bring it but will guys like Hillenmeyer and Tinoisomoa help out?

These aren't reasons why the Bears will suck this year. These are questions that, if answered negatively by their performance on the field during the REGULAR SEASON, will result in a poor showing by the 2010 Bears ball club. It's almost as though you do Not know all you need to know from 3 preseason games.

Julius Peppers gets signed to big money does that mean he will do well when no one else on the defensive line is great?

Name one other person on Carolina's defensive line last year. Exactly. He seemed to do okay then.

4. Special teams. Let me continue to beat the dead horse on this issue. Devin Hester will be good being a third wide receiver. Forget him winning two or three games alone taking back kicks and punts. Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo think he’s the next Jerry Rice. This is for a lack of a better term, pathetic. The ineptitude and lack of football knowledge by Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith will prove to be costly once again this season.

Jesus H. Christ. For the last fucking time, it does not hurt Devin Hester as a returner to have the opportunity to make plays on offense. He is the most dangerous person on this team when the ball is in his hands. It is a good idea to try to get that ball to him more often. Do you really think that Devin Hester can't return kicks as well anymore because he's sitting there thinking "okay, on Z right Deep Post I need to go 15 yards...OH SHIT THERE'S A PUNT COMING AT ME?" No. The reason Devin Hester has fallen off as a receiver the last few years is because the Bears no longer have the best special teams blocking unit in football. Guys like Brendan Ayanbedejo and Dante Wesley are gone. That happens when you have a salary cap. You can't afford to pay guys starter money just to be special teams blockers. Good lord.

Also, Devin Hester demanded a big money contract with most of that money tied to incentives that he receives for playing receiver. He WANTS to play receiver. It would be absolutely dishonest for the Bears Not to play him.


So buckle up Bears fans. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. I would love to be totally wrong on all of this but I don’t see it.

I don't think you see a lot of things.

I want the Bears to win and win a lot. I just don’t see it with this team. Too many questions and no answers to go with any of them.

No answers because they haven't played meaningful games yet. Because you can't learn all you need to learn from watching the preseason.

I would like 11 or 12 wins but I think at best, 8-8 sounds just about right.

So you think they're going to be 8-8, despite declaring that they are even worse than the 4-12 2002 club? That makes sense. I think you're probably an idiot. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it with this post.

Roster Cutdowns and Week One College Football Observations

The Bears made some interesting cuts recently. Juaquin Iglesias, Jarron Gilbert, Dan LeFevour, Al Afalava, and Josh Beekman all got the axe with the final cutdown. Iglesias and Gilbert were only surprising in that Angelo had the guts to part ways with a couple relatively high and recent failed picks of his (Iglesias has come back to the practice squad, so nothing lost there). Why he can't seem to do the same and simply bench Danieal Manning is another question. The writing was on the wall for LeFevour well before final cuts, so I'm not surprised to see him go at all. I'm also not shocked that the Bengals claimed him quickly on waivers. The kid has talent. If the Bengals are willing to spend the roster spot and the time necessary to make him into an NFL quarterback, they're probably getting a good deal.

Beekman and Afalava truly shocked me, however. I never swallowed the Afalava kool-aid before the start of last season, but it's very shocking to see him go from week one starter to the unemployment line in the course of one season. I at least felt he was better than Josh Bullocks or Craig F%*king Steltz.Considering the injury issues of Manning, Wright, and Chris Harris, I'd have thought it wise to keep Al. Beekman performed adequately as a guard the last two years and seemed to be a natural fit at center when Kreutz is finally done. Hopefully this means that Kreutz has looked healthy enough this offseason to remain an effective starter all year long. It bugs me, however, that this team still lacks a succession plan.


ON TO THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL!

-Illinois is doomed. DOOMED I SAY. God I hate my obligatory rooting interest. Curse my place of birth. I wish I'd been born on vacation.

- Ole Miss-Jacksonville State was hilarious and awesome in a thousand different ways. Tough break, Coach Giggity.

- Lost in the hubbub over North Carolina's valiant comeback effort against North Carolina was the fact that they may not have been down 30-10 in the first place if John Shoop could have been moved to attempt downfield passing BEFORE falling behind by 20 points. Glad to see somethings never change in this crazy world, John.

-I realize UConn isn't a powerhouse, but if Denard Robinson has truly learned how to operate Rich Rodriguez's system with Pat White-ian efficiency, then the Big Ten had best be prepared for some terrifying spread-option chaos.

-Arkansas, SKO's 2010 Mancrush Based Entirely On My Vaguely Homo-Erotic Admiration for Said Team's Quarterback and His Throbbing Armcock, looked pretty damn good in their first cupcake game of the year, with the dreamy Ryan Mallett posting a 225.77 passer rating and 3 TDs in their blowout of Tennessee Tech. Armcock.

- Shame on you if you didn't watch TCU-Oregon State. Here's to a Horned Frog-Boise State national title showdown and BCS anarchy once more.

-Currently watching Boise-VT, and Boise's defensive line looks like it could devour worlds with Cthulhu-esque flair.

That is all for now, minions. I shall post my updated College Football Rankings tomorrow. Football is back. Let us weep the tears of salvation and acknowledge once more the presence of the all-powerful God of Fall.

College Football is Back! and Time to Twat!

Well, just like bottled water, cell phones, Facebook, and codpieces, Twitter has now become yet another thing that I've gone from despising to utilizing regularly. So go now to the new Start Kyle Orton twitter! I'll try to update it semi-regularly, so most likely not often.

Also, REGULAR SEASON FOOTBALL HAS ARRIVED. Sure, I'm simply given the choice right now between watching Ohio State curb stomp Marshall or watching South Carolina be South Carolina, but those games count, senor. GLORIOUS IS THIS DAY!

Oh Good God.

All of you, especially Rick Telander (what is it with Ricks?), need to shut the hell up about the preseason. Perhaps last season's 3-1 record preceding a 7-9 shitfest wasn't enough of an indicator to you that the preseason just doesn't matter? What about when they went 1-3 in 2006? Or 0-4 in 1985? No, I'm not saying that their shitty performance this preseason is indicative of future success. That's also retarded. Correlation =/= causation. Howevah, it's time to take a deep breath and wait until they drop a game that matters to the Detroit Lions in week one before popping in some Fiona Apple and sinking into a bathtub full of your own blood. Good lord.

The offensive line looked less than stellar and their performance in both pass and run blocking wasn't inspiring. Jay Cutler just made two bad throws. He also made some good ones. His completion % has been pretty low, but Martz has really only had him attempt long passes, because why wouldn't you just go for broke when you're trying shit out?

The linemen also haven't even attempted any kind of double teams or slide protections or anything of that nature, as they've simply been trying "power" football, something they probably won't utilize as much during the regular season with their zone schemes.

All of the injuries to the linebacking corps are minor and the Briggs-Urlacher-Tinoisamoa triumvirate is supposed to start week one. Major Wright should also be back, which will move Manning to nickel and strengthen the pass defense as a whole.

The defensive line has gotten some consistent pressure, even if the sack totals haven't started climbing. I'm confident that they will, even if it's the only prediction I feel bold enough to make about this team.

I don't know what to make of the 2010 Bears. I really don't. I've seen just as many reasons for optimism as I have for doom and gloom. Johnny Knox is going to break ankles and destroy worlds. The problem is that these games aren't going to give you any indication either.

Nobody Takes the 3rd Preseason Game Like It's Bullshit. Bullshit!

Yes, I'm sure every other blog in America is using that line for this upcoming preseason game, but my team is the one that both inspired the line and is playing a rematch with the team whose former coach uttered those famous words, so I can use it.

Anyway, we all know that people say the third preseason game is the only one that "matters,"but that's bullshit because none of them matter (sorry, Denny). However, this is the first game that they've practiced for like a regular season game and the starters should play into the third quarter. THINGS TO LOOK FOR:

-If you haven't already guessed that "Can the offensive line keep Cutler alive?" is going to be my first bullet, you should probably stop breathing and spare the rest of the human race your continued existence. I'd like to see less than 4 sacks total in this game (I have very, very low standards at this point.)

-Can Greg Olsen not piss me off for one game? C'mon, Greg. Don't drop any easy passes. Spring a block. Perhaps even outmuscle a cornerback. Any one of those and I'll stop sticking pins in my #82 voodoo doll for a week.

-Will Danieal Manning do anything to keep himself from losing the safety job? The most encouraging news I've heard all week is that, barring disaster, Wright will take over at safety and Manning will move to nickel once Wright is healthy. This is good because Wright has looked great and Manning has always performed best at the nickel.

-Can the defensive line get even more pressure against a couple of immobilie quarterbacks? Neither Matt Leinart or Derek Anderson (who's getting the start Saturday night because Ken Whisenhunt would like to see some long incompletions rather than short ones) has the mobility of Jason Campbell, who barely escaped and extended a few drives last week. If the d-line keeps up the same amount of pressure they should get a few sacks of these guys, which would be encouraging to see.

That's really all I'm looking for in this game, although I'd love to see the team humiliate Matt Leinart, because f*&k that guy, that's why.

Todd Collins? Why? Damon Huard Wasn't Available?

The Bears signed former Redskin/Chief/Bills clipboard holder Todd Collins today. The 38 year old Collins went to Michigan, so I hate him, and is now the insurance policy in case Hanie can't return before the season starts and Matt Gutierrez is somehow more awful than Todd Collins and Dan LeFevour. LeFevour, who I had high hopes for, is currently staring at a line of 5/20 (25%), 60 yd, 0 TD, 1 INT, 18.8 rating, and would seem an unlikely candidate of doing anything other than a Henry Burris impersonation if forced into a regular season game, so I suppose someone had to be signed off the street.

But why Todd Collins? I know he's been in the system before but outside of one three game stretch in Washington back in 2007 (and you might remember who he padded his stats against that year), he's been a bland, boring, worthless back up quarterback. After 1997 (his only year as a full-time starter when he was the first schmuck to fail miserably in a Bills uniform while trying to replace Jim Kelly), he threw exactly 27 passes over the next decade. He blows.

My point, however, is not that there are better candidates out there for serving as a back up that knows the Martz offense. No, my point is, as I pointed out with the story about Tom Moore and Jim Sorgi last week, if Cutler goes down this team is royally boned anyway, so the Bears should sign up someone interesting who will make the season worth watching, rather than some boring joe like Todd Collins. Some candidates:

JaMarcus Russell- He can throw the football 80 yards and see if Devin Hester or Johnny Knox can run under it, and he help Chris Williams on the line on running plays.

Jeff George- Why not? They did it once before, and Jeff is Still lobbying for someone to sign him. He's also such a notorious asshole that Rick Morrissey would finally think Jay Cutler was a good teammate by comparison, and he made this sweet workout video:


Jeff George, the Kenny Powers of the NFL.

Tim Couch- because the man's taken HGH just to get back in the game and he deserves a shot for that kind of commitment. Also because it WASN'T HIS FAULT.

Tommy Maddox- Hear me out on this one. First we have to send Tommy Maddox to the upstart UFL so that he can win the UFL championship. Their season ends in November, so the Bears could sign Tommy in time to give him another chance at being a one shot wonder making a comeback in the NFL after a stint with a shitty alternative pro football league.

Jamie Foxx- If he's good enough for the Miami Sharks, he's good enough for me.

Joey Harrington- He's unemployed and I need yet another excuse to sing "Piano Man" without seeming gay.

Brian Griese- Nah, I'm just fucking with you. Todd Collins is a better quarterback than Brian Griese could have been even if he was actually Bob Griese's son and not the child of the Faulknerian idiot manchild who mowed their grass and whom Bob's lonely wife cottoned to.

Matt Grothe- You may not know who Matt Grothe is. That's fine. You just need to know that "G to the R O T H E is a Beast From Da Big East"

So there you have it, just a few suggestions that will keep the Bears hilariously relevant, if not competitive, if Cutler should go down. Because Todd Collins will do neither.

The Parking Lot Attendant at Halas Hall Just Ran Around Chris Williams and Sacked Jay Cutler

Well, there's plenty that you can take away from the first half that the starters played on Saturday night (all of it hasty, reactionary, and based on a ludicrously small sample size as all good opinions are), starting with:

-HOLY SHIT CHRIS WILLIAMS IS AWFUL AND JAY CUTLER WILL GET KILLEDZ, OMGZ!
Yeaaah. All the excuses in the world (and I've got some stashed somewhere...did I mention they're trying like, a new zone blocking scheme?) can't hide the fact that Kamerion Wimbley absolutely wrecked Chris Williams' shit. Wimbley went under, around, and straight by Williams while making Cutler's life a living hell. That just can't happen. I'm really shocked at this, as at no point even in his relatively weak showing at right tackle last year, and especially not in his stellar end of season run at left tackle, did Chris ever look this overmatched. I can only hope the SOB was out drinking whiskey out of the navel of a co-ed on Friday night and just had a Rex Grossman on New Year's Eve style nonchalance toward a meaningless exhibition game in August. Otherwise, yikes.

-Urlacher suffered an injury that could simply have been a cramp and probably would have kept playing had said injury occured during the regular season, but hey, that's no reason not to overreact and describe him as fragile and unable to finish a game, right Rick Telander?

- All of those bullshit puff pieces about Matt Forte looking like a new man may not have been bullshit puff pieces.
The 89 yard run was a thing of beauty that combined a perfect play call with perfect blocking and Forte absolutely burned the defense with his speed. However, Forte averaged 5 yards per carry on his other 4 rushes as well and several times used a quick burst to get out of the backfield and turn what would have been a loss last year into a pretty good gain. He's ready to go, and here's hoping he can stay healthy and keep Chester Taylor as a third down specialist.

-Johnny Knox is still really freaking good.
That's really all there is to it.

-Martz knows how to use Devin Hester
Hester had a nice 29 yard reception (although he dropped another ball that hit him in the hands) and had two solid runs on end-arounds. Martz seems to have a much better grasp on when to run those things than Ron Turner did.

-Jay Cutler will be really good if he can stay alive
Jay is clearly pretty comfortable in this offense. He moved the ball well despite being brutalized. Although he was only 7/15 (46.7%), Hester and Olsen dropped easy passes that would have put him at 9/15 (60%). As it was, he finished with a 90.7 rating and his touchdown toss to Knox (after extending the play) was a thing of beauty. He also had a nice 11 yard scramble.

-The defensive line looked good
Yes, the Raiders have a notoriously horse shit offensive line. However, after that first drive Campbell was harassed mercilessly like he should be behind that line and was just 5/15 with an interception and a sack/fumble after starting 5/5. Less mobile quarterbacks would probably have been sacked...well, about as often as Cutler was.

-Greg Olsen will still cause my blood to boil with regularity.
Did you enjoy the juxtaposition of Greg Olsen failing to plow through a smaller defender for a first down followed shortly thereafter by a Raiders drive being extended when tight end Zack Miller (listed as the exact same size (6'5'', 255) as Greg) plowed through a bunch of smaller defenders? Yeah, me neither. Olsen also ended a drive by dropping a pass that hit him right in the middle of his hands, because G-Reg don't like 'em easy, baby. He's soft and I hate him. I'll also bitch incessantly if Martz doesn't throw to him, because I like Having and Eating when it comes to my cake.

-I'm not going to lie, I was drunk the entire second half.
And Dan LeFevour looked like total garbage.

Preview: Raiders at Bears

Tomorrow night is the second playoff game. The starters (including Cutler) should play anywhere from the entire first quarter to the entire first half. Hopefully this'll give us a chance to see if Cutler's 2-2, 47 yard performance to start last week's game is going to be an aberration or possibly a regular occurence this year. A few other things to watch:

The offensive line: Of course. The pass blocking was Okay when the first team offensive line was in the game, but shitty when the back-ups came in. The run blocking was shitty no matter who was out there. I'd expect them to try to establish the run a little bit to see if they can average more than 2.6 yards per carry and calm people down a bit.

The Safeties: Major Wright's performance last week should have been another step on the way to earning the starting job, but the injury to his finger will probably keep him out until the season opener and will cost him the starting job to begin with, most likely. This sucks, as it means yet another healthy dose of Danieal Manning. Now, it's not that I dislike Danieal. He seems like a nice guy, always does what he's asked, and he's a hell of a kick returner. But he sucks ass as a safety. Hairy guy ass. He can't tackle to save his life and his instincts are absolutely terrible. He's going to lose his job to Major Wright eventually, it's just a shame that probably won't be until week two of the regular season at the earliest. Oh, and Craig Steltz got hurt, so at least we don't have to worry about him lining up with the starters, which would be the only scenario worse than handing the job back to Manning. I'm not sure why I said you should watch the safeties. I mean, it's not like one preseason game is going to change how much they all suck (outside of Chris Harris). We've been seeing that for years. I guess maybe you should look away, lest you suffer some kind of horrible disappointment.

Pisa and Roach: I have a feeling the team really wants Pisa to win the SAM linebacker spot, but to their credit, and according to all observers, the reps have been split equally between the two. Whichever one of these two guys plays better this week and next week will walk away as the starter.

Dan LeFevour: Unless Matt Gutierrez is some kind of wizard who can pick up the Martz offfense in three days, LeFevour will be the back up quarterback until Hanie returns. We should hope that he plays a bit better than he did last week, although the possibility of LeFevour playing an actual regular season game if Cutler goes down reminds me of this conversation about Jim Sorgi and the Colts reported on Kissing Suzy Kolber earlier this week:

"One of my friends used to work/intern for a sports show. One day, he was helping a reporter interview Colts OC Tom Moore. The Colts, of course, were set at QB with LaserRocketArm, so the reporter decided to question Moore about the backup, Jim Sorgi. One part of the interview went a little something like this.

Reporter – How many reps does Sorgi get with the first team offense during the week?
Moore – None.
Reporter – Why is that?
Moore – Because he doesn’t play with the first team during games.
Reporter – So you don’t want him to get any practice with the first team, in case Peyton goes down?
Moore – Well, if Peyton goes down, we are fucked.
Reporter – So why not give Sorgi some first team reps just in case he does?
Moore – Why would we practice being fucked?"

Found here. And that's pretty much exactly how you should feel if #15 (how did they not retire Jim Miller's number?) takes the field in any meaningful game this year.

The runningbacks: Despite all the good we've heard about them this offseason, they collectively dropped a load in the first preseason game. They all missed blocks (very, very crucial for backs to block in this offense) and they averaged little-to-nothing on their carries. It'd be nice to see those things improve.

More pressure from the defensive line, please: The Chargers were pretty good at going with short passes to keep the defensive line from being much of a factor. The Raiders don't tend to work that way, so there should be opportunities to get at Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski, Kyle Boller, or Colt Brennan (Wow. That's some depth chart). Hopefully they take advantage.

That's about all I'll be looking for, especially since it's still the preseason and 99% of the conclusions I draw will be wrong (whereas in the regular season I'd like to believe that number hovers around 85%). Enjoy the game, I'll be back with reactions either Sunday or Monday.

Bears-Chargers Notes

I'm not going to lie, I barely watched this game, and stopped watching long before Dan LeFevour ever came into the game so that I could watch Tim Tebow revert to his loopy delivery while racking up yards against the Bengals' practice squad. But anywho, just a few things:

-Jay Cutler threw his two passes really well. The deep ball to Knox was a text book Martz route, with Knox reading the coverage on an option route and putting on the brakes to make a nice catch.

-As I just said, Knox did a great job of running routes during his time on the field. I'm growing more and more adamant that Knox will be the #1 receiver on this team.

-I'm less down on the first team o-line's performance than most, as I think they did an OK job with pass blocking, but the run blocking was indeed awful. We'll have to see more next week.

-Major Wright is a bad ass. Hopefully he's healthy.

-That's about it.

Bears @ Chargers, First Preseason Game

The Bears take on the Chargers in Glorified Scrimmage #1 this weekend, and while Lovie typically only plays the starters for a few drives in the first quarter during this game, there are a few things worth looking for:

1. Does Lance Louis look totally overmatched?
It sounds like Garza is moving permanently to left guard and Louis is the guy who has emerged as the probably starter at right guard despite the early buzz over Johan Asiata. While I like the willingness to commit assault in my offensive linemen, it remains to be seen whether Louis can actually maul guys on the field. Just watch closely to see if he's getting pantsed.

2. Do Urlacher/Tommie Harris/Pisa Tinoisamoa/Matt Forte appear to be back up to full speed?

That one's kind of self-explanatory.

3. If Jay Cutler and Devin Hester have a communication issue resulting in a bad throw, how soon will Rick Morrissey write an editorial deriding Cutler as a bad teammate?

As is this one.

That's about it. Enjoy the game, football is back, even if no conclusions can even remotely be drawn until the 2nd preseason game. Oh, and don't overreact this year.


Unless they win.

Your SKO Training Camp Preview: The Defense

Yes, I know that in order to be a preview it has come Before training camp starts, but sometimes people have to actually Do work at work. Anywho, the first indications out of camp are that Lovie is trying to regain the love of Ditkas and Buffones everywhere by running a harder camp than he ever has before. Marcus Harrison has responded by again joining the injury list. Because he's fat.

Anywho, onto the defense:

DEFENSIVE ENDS: #90 Julius Peppers, #97 Mark Anderson, #69 Henry Melton, #71 Israel Idonijie, #96 Barry Turner, #98 Corey Wooten

Pepper is obviously the big man here. I don't really think his reputation for taking plays off is deserved. He was a guy that had to be accounted for every single time you played Carolina. He should have a few years left in the tank. He's the biggest key to the defensive turnaround that this team needs to compete.

Anderson gets one last chance to start, with Izzy Idonijie biting hard at his heels. My guess is Anderson will remain a 3rd down pass rushing specialist, with Izzie doing the grunt work. Wooten was a nice pick. He and Melton will provide the depth. Who is Barry Turner?

DEFENSIVE TACKLES: #91 Tommie Harris, #95 Anthony Adams, #93 Jarron Gilbert, #99 Marcus Harrison, #70 Averell Spicer, #75 Matt Toeaina

The yearly "Tommie is Healthy!" stories are out in full force. With Tommie I'll just wait until prime time to decide what he's going to do this year. He plays when he wants to play. He'd better want to this year or he'll be out of a job. Anthony Adams is a perpetual overacheiver, but they could stand an upgrade. Gilbert may be a bust. Harrison should have locked down a starting job a long time ago but continues to suffer from debilitating obesity. Fatass. Spicer and Toeaina will find their way to the practice squad or stashed on the IR. Idonijie will move inside a lot on passing downs.

LINEBACKERS: #54 Brian Urlacher, #55 Lance Briggs, #59 Pisa Tinoisamoa, #92 Hunter Hillenmeyer, #62 Brian Iwuh, #52 Kevin Malast, #94 Matt Mayberry, #53 Nick Roach, #58 Tim Shaw

Urlacher and Briggs are locked in, obviously. Briggs is still in his prime and is the leader of the defense, no matter what Urlacher thinks. Urlacher will not be "back in form." He'll be a competent tackler and he'll do a fine job of getting everyone else into position to make plays. That's all he needs to do at this point. Pisa and Roach will battle, and I'd like to see what Pisa can do if he stays healthy. Roach is no slouch, though. Iwuh, Malast, and Mayberry are all probably goners. Hillenmeyer is good depth at both SAM and Mike. Tim Shaw is the guy who'll get the roster spot reserved solely for a special teams player, me thinks.

SAFETIES: #46 Chris Harris, #27 Major Wright, #38 Danieal Manning, #20 Craig Steltz, #36 Josh Bullocks, #24 Al Afalava, #37 Quentin Scott

Harris is locked in as a starter. He was a good player when he was here the first time and he never should have been sent away. He got better while he was gone. He's a huge upgrade. Danieal Manning is still lining up with the first team, but I don't expect that to last (and neither should you). Wright is going to be the guy, and I'm excited about that. Manning, for all his talent, has never been able to anticipate where the ball is going. Wright is very, very good at that. Steltz may see more playing time on defense this year, and that's not a good thing. He's solid on special teams, though. Afalava fell hard and fast after starting last year strong. He may very well be on the bubble, battling Bullocks for a spot. Quentin Scott won't make it through the preseason.

CORNERBACKS: #33 Charles Tillman, #35 Zac Bowman, #26 Tim Jennings, #30 DJ Moore, #31 Josh Moore, #47 Woodny Turenne, #39 Cornelius Brown

They've decided to flip Tillman and Bowman, which is interesting, but just crazy enough that it might work. Tillman always worked best as the #2 corner, as he lacks top-flight speed and struggles against elite receivers, but typically manhandles the rest. Bowman has better speed and improved a lot as last year went on, but I'm not sure he's ready for this yet. I'd expect him to struggle early. Jennings struggled with the Colts, but has a lot of talent. Josh Moore should make the team since he was a high pick this year. I would also expect DJ Moore to make the roster as well. Turenne and Brown are likely goners.

Special Teams: Kicker #9 Robbie Gould, Punter #4 Brad Maynard, Long snapper #65 Patrick Mannelly

These guys are all good. Although I'm still pissed at Patrick for that idiotic snap to Garrett Wolfe against Green Bay.

Your SKO Training Camp Preview: The Offense

I spent the last week visiting the Pacific Coast. It was sunny, cool, and humidity free. I spent the days camping, hiking, and swimming, and discovered that it's probably better to spend my time doing that than sitting at my desk and work and hitting "refresh" on NFL.com and ProFootballTalk just to see if anything worth discussing has popped up. Alas, I had to return, and just as I come home from camping, the Bears are putting up the tents. Hopefully this year's training camp will avoid the frenzied coverage that Cutler's arrival brought to it last year, even though there's (rightfully) more pressure on all involved to get things done this year. With all that said, on to unit by unit previews of your 2010 Chicago Bears, starting today with the offense:

QUARTERBACKS- #6 Jay Cutler, #12 Caleb Hanie, #15 Dan LeFevour, Mike Teel

Cutler is obviously the player under the most scrutiny this year, and while my own position on the guy's struggles last year has been made abundantly clear, that's just part of the job description for an NFL quarterback. I've waxed and waned all spring and summer with regards to how good of a fit Jay really is in Martz's offense. Right now I'm optimistic. Martz has really only coached one quarterback in his career that had a truly dynamic arm, and that was Warner. In the case of Marc Bulger, Trent Green, Jon Kitna, and whatever refuse he started in San Francisco, Martz has managed to at least improve quarterbacks who would most likely have struggled or even failed to receive an opportunity without him. With Cutler's undeniable talents, this is a marriage that Should work. Right now, I'm willing to believe that it will.

Hanie is a meathead favorite, a guy with a big arm and good mobility who should keep the back-up job he held last year. I don't see Mike Teel offering much of anything, and he should be cut as soon as camp breaks. LeFevour is obviously the most intriguing of the back-up options, and he'll stay simply because Martz likes his projects.

RUNNINGBACKS- #22 Matt Forte, #29 Chester Taylor, #32 Khalil Bell, #25 Garrett Wolfe, and #48 Harvey Unga

Matt Forte had a pretty craptacular year last year. The usual pieces have been written this year about how he's "recoverd his burst" and "looks like a new guy," and if you want to believe them, go right ahead. I don't think the kid was ever that hurt. He seemed to lose the willingness to hit the hole, but that happens when you get used to getting clobbered in the backfield before you've even secured the ball. If the line improves (you'll hear me say that alot), he'll thrive in this system, which utilizes both his running and receiving skills. If it doesn't, the rookie Unga and his greater size may be the best bet at any kind of running game. Either way, Taylor and Forte will catch more passes than they probably ever have at any level this year. Bell and Wolfe are as good as gone (and in Wolfe's case, it's about f*&king time).

WIDE RECEIVERS- #23 Devin Hester, #19 Devin Aromashodu, #80 Earl Bennett, #13 Johnny Knox, #81 Rashied Davis, #83 Freddie Barnes, #17 Juaquin Iglesias, #16 Greg Matthews, #11 Eric Peterman, #18 Antonio Robinson

Hester will probably be the #1 again this year, and it'll ensue more debate, and it won't matter because arguing over who's #1 is nonsensical when it comes to receivers, especially in this offense, as there's no major difference between #1 or #2. For what it's worth, Hester was well on pace to catch 75 balls and have over 1,000 yds before he missed some time with injuries last year. Aromashodu is everyone's fantasy sleeper this year, which probably means nothing. Cutler does seem to enjoy having one big target among this group, and he's more "miscast" in his likely role in the slot than Hester is as a #1. If they were going to make that switch, it would be to see what Aromashodu can do as a starter, not because Hester can't do the job. Johnny Knox seems to be the guy making the biggest strides this offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up leading the team in yards this year. Bennett is a quality possession guy who reminds me a lot of Bobby Engram. That's a good thing to have, depth-wise. Iglesias has all the makings of a bust, while Barnes, Matthews, Peterman, and Robinson get to compete for the coveted Mike Hass Award for Fan Favorite Wideout Who Impresses in the Preseason and Never Comes Close to the Active Roster (MHAFFFWWIITPANCCTTAR, for short).

TIGHT ENDS- #82 Greg Olsen, #88 Desmond Clark, #86 Brandon Manumaleuna, #87 Kellen Davis, #89 Richard Angulo

As usual, this position is a strength on the team. The big debate has been over whether or not Martz will "use" his tight ends, but I think that's all a load of crock. As I've said before, there's very little schematic difference between the Martz Rams offense and the Vermeil Chiefs offense, and those guys had no trouble utilizing Tony Gonzalez. The lack of fullbacks on the training camp roster (Eddie Williams and Will Ta'ufo'ou are the only ones listed, and neither of them has much experience or a pedigree) has me convinced that Manumaleuna is likely to spend most of his time as an H-back, and thus will be on the field with Olsen most of the time. I wouldn't be surprised to see Desmond Clark cut. I like Desmond, and he's certainly been the best tight end the Bears have had in my lifetime, but his skills are diminishing and it's hard to argue that the young and promising Kellen Davis couldn't offer similar production at a lower price. I've never even heard of Richard Angulo.

OFFENSIVE TACKLES: #74 Chris Williams, #68 Frank Omiyale, #78 Kevin Shaffer, #79 Levi Horn, #72 James Marten, #73 J'Marcus Webb.

Chris Williams is one of three locked-in starters on the line. Last year was essentially his rookie season, and he had to start out at right tackle, a position he wasn't used to. He struggled mightily at first, and was nearly as much to blame for the early season run-game struggles as his fat, worthless counterpart Orlando Pace. However, when Pace was finally sent off to live on the Old and Worthless Tackle Farm with Big Cat Williams and Fred Miller, Williams played exceptionally well on the left side and even earned the commendation of the statheads at Football Outsiders. He's a keeper.

Frank Omiyale is built like a tackle and played tackle in college and in Carolina. The Bears paid him tackle money before deciding to go after Orland Pace. To justify the big contract, they moved Omiyale to guard, where he was predictably awful. Absolutely, Brian Griese-level awful. Hopefully the move back to right tackle will help. Until he proves he can actually block something more than the Bears' playoff aspirations, however, Frank remains on my shitlist.

Kevin Shaffer is fine in small doses, but I don't expect much from the right side if he starts. J'Marcus Webb seems likely to get the "medical redshirt," meaning he'll be placed on IR with some vague-sounding injury and allowed to compete for a spot on the roster next year. Horn and Marten are just tackling dummies who can talk (in theory).

Offensive Guards: #62 Johan Asiata, #63 Roberto Garza, #67 Josh Beekman, #60 Lance Louis, #70 Vince Vance

The Bears have tried to get younger at this position, but it remains to be seen whether any of these guys outside of Garza can be effective starters. Beekman looked okay in 2008, but has since become the heir presumptive to Olin Kreutz at center (a switch I think could happen as early as this year). Asiata seems the most likely option to start at left guard, as the staff believes he has the most potential and he's got more experience at guard than Vance or Louis. I'd look for Garza and Asiata to start, with Beekman officially moved to center and Louis as the main back up. Vance will probably hit the streets or the practice squad.

Centers: #57 Olin Kreutz, #64 Tim Walter

Kreutz has declined marginally in each of the last few seasons. He just had surgery to remove a bone spur. The Bears are selling that as a good thing, but I'm not sold. I hope Olin can still be a starter, but I also hope the Bears don't allow sentimentality to prevent them from making the switch to Beekman if it becomes necessary. Walter's just another guy.

That does it for the offense. I think as a whole the team should see improved play from all of these units. The area most in need of improvement is obviously the offensive line. I'm one of many who have complained that the Bears didn't do enough to fix this position, but I'm also well aware that it's a position that varies wildly from year to year and often defies most predictions. It'd be hard to imagine them playing much worse, but I wouldn't rule it out. An improvement from atrociously bad to "not embarassing" would allow these team a shot at having a playoff-caliber offense. I'm hoping that's what will happen.

Walter Payton=Pure Awesome

Via the always excellent SmartFootball.com, Walter Payton playing QB in the shotgun. While not the Wildcat per se (no unbalanced line), it's pretty cool for having pre-dated Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams by almost a quarter century.

Bears QB Controversies, Part II

Earlier today, inspired by NFL Networks Top Ten QB Controversies of All-Time, I decided to compile a list of the Top Ten Bears QB Controversies of my lifetime (1988-Present). Here's the rest of the list:

4. Jim Miller vs. Cade McNown, 2000

During the 1999 NFL Draft, the Bears tabbed Cade McNown, quarterback from UCLA, with the 12th overall pick. As you may have figured out, I was not a fan of this pick, and things didn't turn out too well. The Bears entered the 1999 season with the plan that Shane Matthews would start until McNown was ready. Miller was simply a journeyman who'd managed to beat out Moses Moreno for the third spot on the depth chart. Matthews was the starter for most of the season, while McNown started a few games after Matthews got hurt, and Miller started a few games after both Matthews and McNown were knocked out. Miller performed the best of the three, but was given a suspension for taking a banned supplement.

Going into the 2000 season, the Bears held a "competition" for the starting job, with McNown getting the majority of the reps. The second year QB started off the season in a promising fashion, racking up 377 total yards and 3 total TDs in a losing effort against Minnesota, but as the weeks went by his performance regressed drastically. After 8 games under McNown, the Bears stood at 1-7, with the fans chanting for Miller every week. Dick Jauron, likely pressured by management to support the "QB of the Future," continued to state that McNown gave the Bears the best chance to win. In that 8th game, McNown went down after a tremendous hit by Eagles DE Hugh Douglass (who would ironically knock Miller out of the playoff game a year later), and Miller finally got his chance. While the Bears lost that game, Miller won his first start against the Colts, 27-24, but blew out his ankle the next week against Buffalo. The controversy ended there, as McNown's career was essentially over thanks to his injury and his ineffectiveness, and Shane Matthews took most of the snaps the rest of the way.

3. Kyle Orton vs. Rex Grossman, 2005 and 2008.

The Bears selected Rex Grossman with the 22nd overall pick in the 2003 NFL Draft. He started three games his rookie year and looked very promising, and his first three starts of the 2004 season were mostly impressive as well, but then his bad luck began. A torn ACL in the 3rd game of 2004 wiped out the rest of that season. In 2005, Grossman was joined on the depth chart by 4th round pick Kyle Orton out of Purdue. The Patron Saint was supposed to hold a clipboard as the third stringer during his rookie year, as Grossman's back-up was Chad Hutchinson, who saved the 2004 Bears season like Neifi Perez saved the 2005 Cubs. The star-crossed Grossman broke his ankle in the second preseason game of 2005, which left Hutchinson holding the keys to the starting job. Not surprisingly, he fumbled. Hutchinson was so abysmal in the third preseason game (completed just 1 of 12 passes against the Bills), that Lovie rightfully concluded that the rookie was the best option at quarterback.

Orton then started the first 14 games of the season, and the Bears were a surprising 10-4 in that span. Orton was playing fairly well for a rookie outside of one 5 interception abortion against the Bengals (57% comp., 73 rating in his first 10 games excluding CINC.).

As Grossman became healthy and available to play around the time of the Tampa Bay game, however, Orton went into the tank. Orton was terrible against the Bucs, Packers, and Steelers, and the fans really began to clamor for Grossman. Orton went just 2-10 for 12 yard in the first half against the Falcons, and that was the end. Grossman entered to a standing ovation in the second half, started the next game against the Packers (a division-clinching win) and then started the playoff game against the Panthers after Orton got one more start in a meaningless game against the Vikings. The controversy seemed at an end as the Bears signed veteran Brian Griese to back up Rex in 2006, and Kyle was quickly forgotten.

The controversy arose again, however, in 2008. Grossman's notorious struggles in 2006 and 2007, and Griese's failure to do much of anything at all in his stead, led the Bears to open the QB job to a competition between Grossman and Orton. Despite many (yours truly included) thinking the Bears were sure to hand the job to Rex, Kyle won, and shocked the hell out of everyone by leading the Bears to a 5-3 record while averaging 222 passing yards per game, throwing for 10 tds, and posting a 90.8 QB rating. Unfortunately, Orton injured his ankle in the 8th game of the season against Detroit, leading to Rex's last start in a Bear uniform the next week against Tennessee. Grossman had clearly lost his touch by then, and had just a 59.7 rating in his three appearances. When Orton returned, he was much less effective and the Bears missed the playoffs. Jerry Angelo decided to end this controversy by jettisoning both, with Grossman headed to free agency and Orton traded for Jay Cutler.

2. Jim McMahon vs. Jim Harbaugh vs. Mike Tomczak, 1987-1990

This one I'm going to cite from the history books, as I'm too young to actually remember a game started by Tomczak or McMahon. McMahon was the Bears first round pick in 1982 and was without a doubt the best quarterback the Bears have had since Sid Luckman, at least in terms of ultimate results (46-15 as a starter, Super Bowl Champion), but was undeniably brittle, as he never started more than 13 games in a season during his Bears career, and only started more than 10 games twice in his seven years with the team. Because of McMahon's frequent stints in the trainer's room, the Bears drafted Jim Harbaugh in the first round of the 1987 draft. This was despite the fact that some in the locker room (primarily just McMahon and Tomczak himself) thought that Mike Tomczak was a better option as McMahon's back-up. McMahon and Tomczak were close friends while both were bitter rivals of Harbaugh and barely spoke to him at all, according to rumor. The saga of the McMahon-Harbaugh-Tomczak trio plays itself out in the number of starts each had from 1987 until Harbaugh became the undisputed starter in 1990.

1987: McMahon- 6 starts, 210 attempts, Tomczak- 6 starts, 178 attempts, Harbaugh- 0 starts, 11 attempts (replacements Mike Hohensee and Steve Bradley started a combined 3 games during the strike)

1988: McMahon- 9 starts, 192 attempts, Tomczak- 5 starts, 170 attempts, Harbaugh- 2 starts, 97 attempts.

McMahon was traded to San Diego after the season, leaving Tomczak and Harbaugh to battle it out.

1989: Tomczak- 11 starts, 306 attempts, Harbaugh- 5 starts, 178 attempts.

1990: Harbaugh- 14 starts, 312 attempts, Tomczak-2 starts, 104 attempts.

Tomczak departed after the 1990 season, leaving Harbaugh as the winner of the contest. As I mentioned before, however, Harbaugh's hold on the job was always fragile, as Ditka never seemed to embrace him and he found himself in another controversy with PT Willis soon enough.

1. Rex Grossman vs. Brian Griese, 2006-2007.

The top spot should surprise no one. The paint had barely dried on the "savior" label that the fans had applied to Rex after he relieved Orton in 2005 when Rex found himself on the other end of the fans' support. During the 2006 preseason, Grossman compiled just a 60.7 quarterback rating while Griese led the NFL at 141.7. Some fans and pundits argued that Lovie Smith shouldn't risk the Bears Superbowl aspirations by going with Rex Grossman and his 7 career starts over a "proven" veteran like Griese (although I maintained that the only thing Brian Griese had proven was that he wasn't a good quarterback at all). That controversy seemed to end, however, when Rex won NFC Offensive Player of the Month in September of '06 after leading the Bears to a 5-0 record, throwing for 10 touchdowns, 3 ints, 1243 yards, and a 100.8 rating. All Bears fans know what happened next, however, as Grossman melted down with a four interception game against the Cardinals and had a 61.4 rating and 17 interceptions over the last 10 games of the season. By the time the playoffs rolled around, many felt that Griese should have been the postseason starter, and they only grew louder after Grossman's 2 interceptions in the Superbowl helped Indianapolis seal the game.

In 2007, Grossman vowed to cut down on turnovers, but instead seemed indecisive and regressed even further, and was benched after he posted a 45.2 rating during a 1-2 start in the first 3 games. Griese finally stepped in and responded by throwing 3 interceptions against the god damned Detroit Lions. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm supposed to keep my rational, analytical "professional" tone while writing about Brian F*&king Griese? Not going to happen. Brian Griese sucks. Brian Griese sucks so hard that bystanders have been injured by the vortex of suck that he generates while walking. Brian Griese is a god awful journeyman so bad that he goes to bed with delusions of one day being Jeff Garcia. Sure, you may argue, Griese's 75.6 rating in 2007 was way better than Rex's or even Kyle's that year. But you, sir, are an idiot. Do you realize how hard it is to throw SEVEN interceptions and choke away two games to the DETROIT LIONS? Let's compare the passer ratings of Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and Jay Cutler when it comes to Detroit:

Cutler: 112.6
Orton: 102.2
Grossman: 82.2
Griese: 54.3

That's right, folks, when it comes to facing the Detroit Lions, Brian Griese morphs into Ryan Leaf. Now some of you may have realized by now that the reason Start Kyle Orton was founded actually had less to do with our love of the Patron Saint (not that we don't love him) but with our hatred of the weak-armed, hair-brained Griese. Because seriously, f*&k that guy.

Anyways, Griese started 6 games, lost 3 of them, got injured against the Raiders, and was relieved by Rex who won the game with a bomb to Berrian. Rex then started the next four games and played much better, but was injured against the Redskins and replaced by Griese (who, not surprisingly, threw 2 interceptions as the team lost by a touchdown), who was then replaced for the last three games of the season by the Patron Saint, who was the only quarterback the Bears started that year who had a winning record (2-1). So remember kids, when asked the following question:

When Brian Griese and Rex Grossman face off, who wins?

The answer is Kyle Orton.

Matthews, McNown, or Miller and Death is Not an Option

I was watching NFL Network's brilliant Top Ten series the other day as they counted down the the Top Ten Quarterback Controversies of all time. There were some great ones in there (Flutie vs. Rob Johnson, Rivers vs. Brees, Morton vs. Staubach, Montana vs. Young) and it got me thinking of all the epic quarterback controversies the Bears have had in my lifetime. I thought it might be fun to recap some of them and look back at how utterly braindead we all were to think any of these guys would lead the Bears to a championship. So without further ado, here are the

TOP TEN QUARTERBACK CONTROVERSIES OF MY LIFETIME (1988-Present)

10. Jonathan Quinn vs. Craig Krenzel vs. Chad Hutchinson vs. Jeff George vs. my Burgeoning Alcoholism, 2004

It's hard to remember now, but the Lovie Smith Era could have conceivably started off with three straight playoff appearances. The 2004 NFC was pathetically weak, with TWO 8-8 teams (the Vikings and the Rams) making the playoffs. The Bears actually had the NFL's 13th ranked defense and were by far the best in the NFC North on that side of the ball. After Rex Grossman went down after the team's 1-2 start, the offense dropped from an average of 20 PPG and 345 YPG to an average of 13 PPG and 214 YPG. The culprits? The first three quarterbacks listed above. Quinn came in after Rex was injured late in the 4th quarter against the Vikings and was absolutely abysmal in three starts against the Eagles, Redskins, and Buccaneers, as well as in relief against the Cowboys. Fans clamored for rookie 5th round pick Krenzel to start. Krenzel relieved Quinn against TB and won his first three starts against the 49ers, the Giants, and the Titans, despite averaging only 142 yards passing in those three games (and completing less than 40% in two of them). The Bears defense stopped winning games singlehandedly, however, and Krenzel lost his next two starts against the Colts and the Cowboys before going on IR with an injured ankle. Hutchinson came in because why the fuck not and somehow threw three touchdowns against the Vikings before leading the offense to just 9 ppg in a four game losing streak to end the season. Oh, and at some point they signed the 38 year old Jeff George, who hadn't played since 2001. Mercifully, he didn't get a start. If you'd managed to forget this whole mess, good for you, but just remember: At one point in your life, you thought Craig Krenzel would be an upgrade at quarterback. And you were Right.

9. Jim Harbaugh vs. PT Willis, 1992

You may be asking yourself who the hell PT Willis is. That's okay. I don't remember him that much either, but I was 5 when he made his last start in a Bears uniform. PT was the back up for Jim Harbaugh after Mike Tomczak left, and his preseason exploits against 3rd string defenses made him look capable at that job. Given that Mike Ditka's relationship with Harbaugh was always tenuous at best, it's no surprise that PT got a chance to start towards the end of Ditka's last year with the Bears dead in the water. He sucked. Horribly (54.9 career QB rating). The Bears were 0-3 in games started by Willis between 1992-1993 with the average score being 21-8. Just so you know, if you're coaching for your job, starting PT Willis isn't a good move.

8. Kordell Stewart vs. Chris Chandler, 2003

I'm not sure this was a controversy, as I don't remember wanting either of those two guys. Does that make it a controversy? I guess. Stewart was the Bears "big" free agent signing after the 4-12 2002 season, and for some reason that was supposed to help them back to the playoffs. Stewart sucked (56.8 rating) and led the Bears to a 1-4 start in 2003, including such whoppers as a 49-7 loss to San Francisco and a 38-23 loss to the Packers on MNF in the first game of the "new" Soldier Field. Chandler came in and went 3-3 over the next six games, despite not playing all that much better than Kordell (61.3 rating), but he was injured against Denver. Kordell had the only good passing game either had all season long in a 28-3 victory over the Cardinals, but any victory over the Cardinals before 2007 doesn't count. The Bears had somehow backed their way into playoff contention, and had a 14-0 lead over Green Bay in Lambeau. After the Packers had managed to regain the lead at 19-14, Stewart drove the team all the way to the Green Bay 10 yard line, but threw an absolutely awful interception which Mike McKenzie returned 90 yards for the clinching score. The Bears were then eliminated from contention, and the Rex Grossman Era began, leaving Absolute Failure as the definitive winner of the Chandler-Stewart debate.

7. Erik Kramer vs. Rick Mirer, 1997

This, sadly, was only a controversy because Dave Wannstedt was the only man left alive in 1997 who thought Rick Mirer could still be a starting quarterback in the National Football League, and the mustachioed bastard traded a first round pick to Seattle in order to acquire the legendary double first round bust. Erik Kramer was only one season removed from the greatest passing season in Bears history, but had lost Wannstedt's confidence after an injury plagued and ineffective 1996 season. Wanny had every intention of starting Mirer from day one, but Rick was supposedly so bad in offseason mini-camps that offensive coordinator Matt Cavanuagh was seen throwing his clipboard at the ground in frustration after yet another Mirer mistake. Kramer started the first three games of the season, but the team was winless in those three games and Mirer was given three starts to show what he could do. They were easily the worst three games a quarterback has ever managed in Bears history, as the team failed to score a single offensive touchdown under Mirer's direction and were outscored 78-23. Mirer was benched, Kramer "led" the team to a 4-6 record the rest of the way, and the Bears parted ways with Mirer after the season. I hate you, Dave Wannstedt

6. Shane Matthews vs. Jim Miller, 2001

Matthews and Miller had both entered the 1999 seasons as the guys who were simply supposed to watch Cade McNown's rise to glory. Both of them had NFL careers that lasted longer than Cade. Miller was the fan favorite of the two, but he had been banned for steroids in 1999 and had made just one start in 2000 before blowing out his ankle. Matthews had been solid but unspectacular in 1999-2000, and since "unspectacular" is the quality John Shoop most admires in his quarterbacks, Matthews got the start at the beginning of the 2001 season. Matthews started the first two games, a loss to Baltimore and a win against Minnesota, but was injured at half time of the Vikings game, and the "win" belonged to Miller, who threw for the Bears only two touchdowns of the season to that point. Miller started the next four games, all wins, for the surprisingly 5-1 Bears. In the fourth game, against the 49ers, Matthews was the one with the late game heroics, rallying the team to an overtime win. Matthews got the start against Cleveland the next week, and came back from a 21-7 deficit to tie the game on a last second Hail Mary (although I maintain that Shane Matthews is the only NFL QB for whom 34 yards constitutes a Hail Mary). The Bears won in overtime for the second consecutive week, but the controversy ended there as Miller came back and the team went 7-2 the rest of the way to finish 13-3. In the playoff game against the Eagles, Miller was knocked out early and Matthews failed to muster much offense as the team lost 33-19. Matthews departed after the season, and Miller suffered through yet another injury plagued season in 2002 before departing as well.

5. Steve Walsh vs. Erik Kramer, 1994

Jim Harbaugh had an absolutely awful last season in Chicago in 1993, and so Wannstedt and Co. decided to replace with Erik Kramer and Steve Walsh, who had previously played for the Lions and the Saints, respectively. While Kramer was the starter from day one thanks to his stronger arm and better track record (10-5 as a starter, 75.5 rating in Detroit vs. Walsh's 11-13 record and 69.1 rating), the Bears were 1-2 in the first three games under Kramer (despite his 254 ypg and sparkling 107.5 rating in those three games) and he was injured in the third game. Walsh started the next three games, which the Bears won to bring their record to 4-2. Kramer came back after the bye, but threw three interceptions in a Bears loss to the Lions and was benched during a blowout against Green Bay. Walsh started every game the rest of the way as the team went 8-3 under his direction, made the playoffs, and even won a first round game against the Vikings before bowing out. While Kramer seemed to simply be the recipient of bad luck (the defense allowed 27 PPG in Kramer's 5 starts but only 16 PPG in Walsh's 11, while the offense actually averaged More points under Kramer's direction), Walsh earned praise as a "game manager." The competition was re-opened in 1995, and while Kramer won and broke every Bears passing record in the book and the team finished an identical 9-7, his bad luck continued as they failed to make the playoffs. Walsh left after the 1995 season, but Kramer had to endure three more years of bad luck and losses in Chicago.

I'm stopping this here for today because I just looked up and realized how incredibly long it's getting. You can look forward to the rest tomorrow or Monday.

Boredom=Preseason Rankings

I'm as bored as one person can possibly get these days. The Blackhawks brought home the title but neglected to think of what I was going to do with my time without them giving me something to watch. The Cubs are so far beyond listless that I can't even bear to feign interest in them. All of this adds up to me engaging in an activity I usually mock: ranking college teams in June. Sure, I usually rank teams in August, but by that point rosters have shaken out and you have a good idea of who is going to take the field for the season opener. At this point a lot of that stuff is still up in the air. But whatever, here's my first go at it:

The SKO College Top 10 Rankings:

1. Alabama- Time tested formula: Last year's champion+Returning Quarterback=Preseason #1

2. Boise State- They have a shit ton of returning starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore. I am focusing all of my positive karma on getting Boise into a national championship game.

3. Ohio State- I'm pretty high on them this year, which is odd, as I'm usually convinced that Ohio State is a paper tiger, but they appear to have closed the gap between them and schools from other BCS conferences. I'm not sure they could handle an SEC champion in the title game, but I think the embarassments of the past are over.

4. Texas- Their defense is largely intact, and it's good enough to carry them while they get things sorted out on offense. Garrett Gilbert didn't embarass himself on the national stage in the championship game, and I think he'll be a fine quarterback.

5. Iowa- I feel...so...cold. I feel this pick is really going to bite me in the ass. Hell, I hope it does. The frustrating thing is that I don't dislike Iowa. I think Kirk Ferentz is an outstanding coach who can somehow make cliches come to life ("It all starts up front!" "Teamwork trumps talent!" "Defense wins (shares) of (Big Ten) championships!"), and you know without a doubt that they're going to have a great offensive line and a great front seven on defense every year. They're everything a Big Ten football team should be. But my God, if you've ever spent an hour of your life in Iowa during football season you want to strangle every single one of their fans. For that reason, I root against them out of spite, because I live amongst the mouth-breathers. Honestly, though, the defense will be as good as expected (it always is), the running game should be much better, and if Ricky Stanzi can cut down on the turnovers while keeping his invincibility in the fourth quarter, the Big Ten will boil down to a two man race between Iowa and OSU.

6. Florida- John Brantley will be a better passer than Tim Tebow ever was, and, while he's not a total behemoth running the ball like Tebow, he can run the option well enough to help move the ball. They return their trio of talented runningbacks, and have enough returning starters on defense to keep them in the top third of the nation in that category.

7. TCU- The team that's gone 23-3 the last two years returns 16 of 22 starters, including most of their stellar running game and senior quarterback Andy Dalton. I'd be shocked if they failed to make another appearance in the BCS this year.

8. Virginia Tech- They only return four of their starters on defense, the key to last year's team, but it won't matter because Frank Beamer always puts out a respectable defense. The important thing for this team is the 8 returning starters on offense. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor became a legitimate threat with his arm down the stretch last season, and he was already a threat with his legs before the year. He'll take a huge step forward this year, helped by the 100 Proof Backfield (brilliance courtesy of these guys ) of halfbacks Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. Williams was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2009, rushing for 1655 and a whopping 21 TDs, while Evans (who missed last year with injury) rushed for 1265 yds and 11 TDs in 2008. As I said last winter, Taylor, Evans, and Williams may dominate like Jason Campbell, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams did while leading Auburn to an undefeated season in 2004.

9. Georgia Tech- My love of the triple option continues unabated, despite their disheartening loss to Iowa's stingy defense in the Sugar Bowl. While they lose man beast Jonathan Dwyer at runningback, they still return their other two starting runningbacks from last year as well as quarterback and 1,000 yard rusher Josh Nesbitt (who should be better at throwing the ball this year as well). They also return eight starters from last year's defense, so that experience should hopefully help them improve on that side of the ball.

10. Penn State- I'd have had Oregon here before Jeremiah Masoli went all Marcus Vick on everybody and ended his college career early in a cloud of arrests. PSU loses Darryl Clark, who could always be relied upon to suck in big games, but returns most of the starters on their stout offensive and defensive lines as well as RB Evan Royster. I guess they make the top ten.

I'm wrapping this up here because I don't like to do 11-25 during the season when I have way more information at hand, and I hate it even more during the preseason.

A Quick Note on Pressure

In reference to my previous post about Aaron Rodgers actually having more protection than Jay Cutler, the awesome website ProFootballFocus.com keeps statistics on how often a quarterback is pressured and how they perform under said pressure. Cutler was, in fact, pressured on a whopping 32.3% of his passing attempts last year, vs. 31.7% for Rodgers. So Cutler was pressured more often. However, I can't lie, Rodgers response to the pressure that he faced was otherwordly. He had a 104.2 rating under pressure, which was the best in the league by 35 points. Cutler was at 51.2, which was about league average.

My only caveat, however, would be that, like sacks, not all pressure is created equal. One pass rusher coming at a quarterback from around the right tackle is not the same as the complete and total breakdowns in protection that Jay often encountered. Either way, however, the stats tend to bear out the fact that Cutler fares about as well as most other quarterbacks when under severe pressure. He just got pressured more often than all but four others (David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, and Alex Smith). Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is some kind of amazing quarterback. I hate you, Aaron Rodgers. At the bottom of my gut, with every inch of me, I plain, straight hate you. But dammit, do I respect you!

The Meatheads Were Right, it was Turner's Fault

This article is obviously pretty old (and came before Jay's two game hot streak to end the year), but I found it to be an extremely good explanation of Jay's struggles last year, and why I think he'll improve this year.

While the author agrees that Jay's problems tend to stem from "the cumulative effect of a lot of things. One is an offensive line that is probably the worst in pro football. As you play more and more games, and there's more and more pressure, a quarterback who is not naturally mechanically sound, will become worse because no one likes to have people in their face all the time. Very often, when quarterbacks take shots early in games, you see them start to lose their mechanics over the course of a game, get rid of the ball too early, start to play too fast..." all of which is accurate, I found his critique of Ron Turner's abuse of Jay and terrible play-calling to be most interesting.

"But what happens to that talent if there's no room for it? Against the Vikings, Cutler came out of the box in a way that told me two things: First, the Bears' coaching staff was setting things up to eliminate risk. Second, anything but dink-and-dunk when you're looking at a Jared Allen-Orlando Pace matchup is just nonsensical. On Cutler's second throw of the game, on second-and-3 from his own 42 with 10:58 left in the first quarter, Allen got around Pace with no resistance whatsoever, and Cutler bailed out to Earl Bennett at the line of scrimmage for a loss of two yards. When Cutler hit tight end Greg Olsen for a three-yard out on third-and-five, Olsen could gain only one more yard after the catch because cornerback Cedric Griffin and linebacker Chad Greenway were playing close in, waiting for the short pass, and knowing that the Bears had admitted defeat in a strategic sense. Three quick passes, and a three-and-out.
It was difficult to know what to make of Cutler's mechanics early on -- the guy's obviously talented enough to complete quick outs -- but I was astonished to see Pace get no help with Allen on any of those plays. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner managed to combine the protection leakage of wide sets with the inflexible non-production of a quick-screen-only offense. It was mind-blowing."

One of my biggest problems last year was watching Ron Turner completely obliterate the faith that I'd shown in him before last year. Before last season I had, optimistically, chosen to dismiss the Bears offensive struggles under Turner with the notion that a "real" quarterback would fix them. It didn't. Now, Turner's problem lays not with his "predictability" or whatever lame excuse the media chose to pin his struggles on, but his adaptability. He simply has no idea how to react to changing situations. It was apparent early on that the Bears offensive line was not good enough to run the power offense that Turner wanted to run. His response was to continue calling plays as if it was, based on some miniscule hope that the line simply needed to "gel." It wasn't until Chris Williams took over at left tackle and the line play improved slightly that Turner even attempted to mix things up. During the Vikings and Lions games to end the season he did a good job of moving the pocket and taking advantage of Jay's ability to throw on the run, something the statuesque quarterbacks Turner has dealt with the in the past (Orton, Griese, Grossman, Kramer, Walsh) were unable to do.

This was a recurring problem for Turner throughout both of his tours with the Bears. When he can run the offense he wants to run, like in 1995 and the early parts of 2006 and 2008, and his offensive line blocks and the run game works well, he can score a lot of points. When teams figured him and Rex Grossman out in 2006 and started to put pressure on Rex, Turner failed miserably at adapting and adjusting protection schemes and finding ways to take advantage of the defense's emphasis on blitzing. Last year he seemed overmatched and completely unable to adjust to utilize Cutler's natural talents to overcome the schematic and protection deficiencies of the offense.

If I dare say it (and again, Every positive prediction I make about Jay Cutler and the Bears offense this year hinges on whether or not the offensive line can improve), I have hope that Mike Martz can improve both of these problems. Martz has justifiably acquired a status as a quarterback guru, as guys like Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Jon Kitna were undoubtedly better under his tutelage then they were beforehand (or in Bulger's case, afterwards). He knows how to preach the fundamentals of the position, such as proper footwork, Jay's biggest problem area. I truly believe he can make Jay a more technically sound player.

Schematically, I think Martz is a much brighter individual than Ron Turner. He has shown an ability to adapt to poor personnel in order to generate some semblance of offense. People can criticize the Lions or 49ers win-loss records during Martz' tenures as offensive coordinator, but both teams scored significantly more points under Martz than they had without him. The 2006-2007 Lions were the only Lion teams since 2002 to score more than 300 points in a season. Martz' 2008 49ers scored more points than any 49ers team since 2003. He made Jon Kitna into a 4,000 yard passer in two straight years. I've said over and over again that he has far more talent to work with in Chicago than he has since St. Louis. He'll figure out how to utilize that talent much better than Ron ever would have.







I still don't like him, though.

Fun with Hyperbole

A while ago, Mike Martz made waves when he compared this years Bears to the 1999 Rams when speaking with SI's Peter King. Many people mocked the statement, and understandably so. Hyperbole of this sort is common during this period of the offseason, and Martz is no stranger to empty bravado. But since this is the long death march of the offseason, I'm actually going to play devil's advocate for a bit and suggest that perhaps there's a nugget of truth to Martz' statement. Now, in hindsight, knowing what the Rams did from 1999-2003 when they scored 500 points in a season three times (and 447 in 2003), went 56-24, appeared in two Superbowls, won one, and went to the playoffs four times, this statement looks utterly ridiculous. However, no one knows yet what the 2010 Bears offense will do, as it's the preseason. So perhaps it's best to look at what the 1999 Rams looked like BEFORE taking the field, and compare them to the 2010 Bears.

The 1998 Rams (whom Martz was not affiliated with) had gone 4-12. They had the league's
27th ranked offense in yardage and 24th ranked in points. They were 29th in rushing offense and 22nd in passing.

The 2009 Bears were 7-9. They had the league's 23rd ranked offense in yardage and 19th in points. They were 29th in rushing and 17th in passing.

The quarterback of the 1999 Rams was Kurt Warner. Before the 1999 season he was an undrafted nobody who'd only thrown 11 career passes. After Martz' arrival he became a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback.

The quarterback of the 2010 Bears is Jay Cutler. He's often regarded as the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL. In 2008 He led the NFL in passing yards. He was the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 2 or more touchdown passes in his first four games. Even in the worst year of his career last year he was 13th in the NFL in passing yards and 8th in touchdown passes. He arguably has far more potential than any quarterback Martz has ever worked with, including Warner.

The runningback of the 1999 Rams was Marshall Faulk. He was an undeniably great runningback, and a dual threat as a runner and receiver, but look at his career averages before Martz:

Rushing: 1,064 yds , 8 tds, 3.8 ypa
Receiving: 561 tds, 2 tds, 9.4 ypc

And compare that to Matt Forte, the presumptive starter for the 2010 Bears:

Rushing: 1,084 yds, 6 tds, 3.8 ypa
Receiving: 474 yds, 2 tds, 7.9 ypc.

Forte's numbers are remarkably similar, and he's actually drawn a great deal of comparisons throughout his career to Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook, and other Pro-Bowl caliber dual threat runningbacks. The potential is there for Forte to explode in a similar manner to Faulk.

The top four wide receivers of the 1999 St. Louis Rams were Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ricky Proehl. The top four wide receivers of the Chicago Bears will be (in some order) Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and Earl Bennett.

Of the Rams group, only Isaac Bruce was a proven quantity. He was a 6th year veteran who had averaged 932 yards receiving and 6 tds during his first five years. The Bears don't have anything quite close to Bruce's level, but they do have Devin Hester, a guy with certifiably great skills who was on pace for a 1,000 yd receiving season before suffering a series of injuries last year.

Torry Holt was an unproven rookie, so second year man Johnny Knox at least has the edge in experience, as he showed great promise last year by catching 45 passes for 527 yards and 5 TDs, despite making the leap all the way from FCS school Abilene Christian. Knox also has comparable speed to the young Holt.

Az-Zahir Hakim made a name for himself as the slot receiver in Martz' offense, but before Martz' arrival he had just 20 receptions for 247 yards and a TD, much like Aromashodu, who showed great potential when given a chance last year has only amassed 31 catches for 394 yds and 4 tds in his career.

Ricky Proehl was a savvy veteran who'd carved out a niche for himself as a great possession receiver and had averaged 634 yds receiving and 4 tds a season before 1999. Earl Bennett also established himself as a reliable, chain-moving possession man, with 54 receptions for 717 yds and 2 TDs in his first year starting.

At tight end, the Rams had Roland Williams, a quality blocking tight end who had just just 15 receptions for 144 yards in his career before Martz' arrival.

The Bears arguably have a great advantage here, with Brandon Manumaleuna as a great option on the line at tight end and Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark as pass catchers, a new element Martz claims he will utilize this year.

On the offensive line, the 1999 Rams had future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace, who at that time was a promising young tackle entering his third year. At guard, they had another Pro-Bowler in fifth year starter Adam Timmerman, and first time starter Tom Nutten. At center they had unhailed third year starter Mike Gruttadaria, and at right tackle they had fourth-year man and future Pro Bowler Fred Miller.

On the offensive line, the 2010 Bears also have a third year, former first-round pick at left tackle in Chris Williams, who has received a lot of praise for his work towards the end of last season. That's pretty much where the comparisons end. Somewhere out of the group of Kevin Shaffer, Lance Louis, Johan Asiata, Olin Kreutz, Josh Beekman, Frank Omiyale, and Roberto Garza the Bears have to craft a capable offensive line. I don't know if they can do it, but perhaps it's worth noting that the Rams, who cleared the way for the league's top ranked passing attack and 5th ranked rushing attack, had been downright awful the year before as well, giving up 47 sacks.

So what does this all mean? Well, I'm going to put this part in bold because mindless trolls who read this would most likely ignore it and say something to the effect of "this guy thinks the Bears are gonna score 526 points and win the Superbowl LOLZ?", what it means is that the Bears may actually have more talent on offense than people realize, and that Martz may not be crazy in thinking that the Bears have more talent (on paper) going into this season than the 1999 Rams appeared to have going into that season. Does that mean they'll be able to do what those guys did? Probably not, but a capable offense seems within reach if the offensive line keeps Jay Cutler alive (a dubious proposition, indeed).

Start or Sit Bradford? It May not Make a Difference.

I read an article a few weeks ago by a St. Louis journalist (I can't remember which one and I didn't want to look it up again because it sort of sucked, but I'd bet it was Bernie Miklasz. If it's St. Louis and it's awful, it's Bernie) who said that the Rams should start Bradford all year. My knee jerk reaction was to say that that was a terrible idea, since St. Louis' offense is royally boned outside of Steven Jackson (do the names Daniel Fells, Donnie Avery, Mardy Gilyard, or Keenan Burton mean anything to you?) and Bradford and his injured shoulder would have to be under fire behind a terrible offensive line with very little to throw to at wide receiver. Knee jerk reactions never last, however, so I decided to crunch the numbers on 1st round quarterbacks and the number of games they start their rookie year. The conclusion I came to, surprisingly, is that it doesn't appear to matter whether Bradford starts 0 games or 16.

For this study, I looked at all 61 quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 1983 (the greatest quarterback draft ever and the one that featured three of the first truly modern quarterbacks of our era in Marino, Elway, and Kelly) and the present. I threw out every player who hadn't been in the league for three years, since, fair or not, that seems to be the evaluation period given to everyone in the NFL, which dropped the number down to 54. Of those 54, I came up with 23 that I considered "Busts", 18 "Average" QBs, and 13 "Franchise" QBs.

Out of those 54 quarterbacks, 13 didn't start a single game their rookie year. Four of those quarterbacks became Franchise players (Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Jim Kelly (for fairness sake, it should be noted that Kelly spent two seasons playing for the USFL's Houston Gamblers), five became average, serviceable starters (Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, Jim Harbaugh, and Ken O'Brien), while four went bust (Brady Quinn, JP Losman, Kelly Stouffer, and Todd Blackledge). Obviously the results of this group show that sitting the bench for one's rookie year has no quantifiable effect on future performance, as the distribution is almost identical for each group (4 franchise, 5 average, 4 busts.)

The biggest, and least successful group, were the 20 quarterbacks who started 1-5 games their rookie year. Only one Franchise quarterback is in this group (Steve McNair), while there are a whopping 11 busts (JaMarcus Russell, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Jim Druckenmiller, Trent Dilfer, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Andre Ware, and Chuck Long), and 8 average QBs (Rex Grossman, Michael Vick, Vinny Testaverde, Chris Miller, Jim Everett, Tony Eason). My logic as to why this group is so unsuccessful? Looking at those busts, almost all (outside of JaMarcus), were guys with overrated skills that would probably not be first round picks today.Ware and Klingler were average guys who had inflated numbers in a Run N' Shoot offense, Long was simply a guy who started a lot of games at Iowa and thus set a bunch of records, while the others all were lacking in talent as well. The most logical explanation for why those busts failed to start more than 5 games is simply that they weren't talented enough to be the best quarterbacks on the roster, which doesn't appear to be the case for Sam Bradford.

The 6-10 games started group is mostly hit or miss: John Elway, Dan Marino, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb were/are all franchise players, while Kyle Boller, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, and Cade McNown went bust, and only Alex Smith appears to be blossoming into an average quarterback.

The 11-15 games group has only a few names at the extremities (Aikman and Roethlisberger are franchise guys, Joey Harrington and Matt Leinart are busts), but plenty of average players (Tim Couch, Byron Leftwich, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Jeff George, and Drew Bledsoe).

Only five rookies have started all 16 games in that time period, two of which don't make this list yet (although if I had to guess, both Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan will be in the Franchise category). Of the three who do, the results are complete polar opposites, with Peyton Manning representing the Franchise QBs and David Carr and Rick Mirer hanging out with the busts.

So what does all this mean for Sam Bradford? Does it really not matter at all how many games he starts? I'm submitting that (outside of the injury risk, which is huge no matter when you play), it really doesn't matter whether he starts or sits. What matters more is the team's approach to him in the future, meaning how do they build their team to help Sam Bradford?

Let's look at the Busts and Franchise QBs on this list and determine why they succeeded or failed, outside of the # of games they started as rookies:

Busts-

JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller, Trent Dilfer, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Chuck Long, and Todd Blackledge.

Now, first of all, in many of these cases, as I mentioned above, the scouting system simply failed and these guys were unsuccessful because they lacked the talent (McNown, Shuler, Maddox, Klingler, McGwire, Ware, Stouffer, Long).

Another group consists of guys who had NFL caliber arms but had accuracy issues and decision-making problems that were destined to preclude them from being consistent NFL starters (Losman, Boller, Ramsey, Akili Smith, Druckenmiller, Dilfer, Blackledge)

All of those guys above were simply just poor draft decisions by the team that took them. The last group (Russell, Quinn, Leinart, Carr, Harrington, Leaf, Mirer, and Marinovich) all failed for a number of reasons. JaMarcus Russell has been dissected a lot since his release, and there are two main reasons for his failure: poor work ethic and a dysfunctional organization. Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart both struggled by being blocked by two guys that weren't Supposed to block them (Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner) and have had to endure changes in the coaching staff and a lack of support from the new regimes. Ryan Leaf , Rick Mirer, and Todd Marinovich all failed for mostly personal reasons (Leaf's immaturity, Mirer's stupidity, and Marinovich's drug habits).

Harrington and Carr, however, arguably failed because of terrible supporting casts. Carr had a god awful offensive line that allowed him to get sacked 72 times as a rookie and 249 times total (an average of almost 3 1/2 sacks per game) during his time with the Texans, and was never the same afterwards. Harrington had a good offensive line, but mediocre talent at runningback (James Stewart, Kevin Jones), notoriously terrible draft picks at wide receiver (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams), and a truly dysfunctional organization that had no idea how to handle a young quarterback. No one can ever truly absolve Harrington or Carr of All of the blame, I suppose, but they were placed in extremely difficult situations.

Now, looking at the 13 franchise quarterbacks-

Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly

-One theme is fairly common here. Almost all of them played for good teams when they were rookies. Rivers, Palmer, Rodgers, and Kelly didn't play their rookie years, but the Chargers were a winning team the two seasons in which Rivers sat the bench and had an extremely talented core around him when he finally did take over in 2006 and went 14-2. Carson Palmer's Bengals were 8-8 in his rookie year and his first year as a starter in 2004, and featured a talented group of wide receivers with Chad Ochocinco (nee Johnson) and TJ Houshmanzadeh, as well as a strong running game with Rudi Johnson. Rodgers sat beyond Brett Favre, and while he went 6-10 as a starter his rookie year, he inherited a team that went 13-3 the year before (and 11-5 the year after) and had an extremely talented offensive unit, with wideouts like Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and a strong running game behind Ryan Grant. As I mentioned, Jim Kelly played for the Houston Gamblers of the USFL, and by the time he came to the Bills in 1986 they had the brilliant Marv Leavy at head coach and already had wide receiver Andre Reed. Despite going 4-12 in Kelly's "rookie year", the organization was clearly on it's way up.

Of the quarterbacks who did start games their rookie year, 4 of the 9 (Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, John Elway) played for team's with winning records that had talented offensive players around them.

Of the 5 quarterbacks who started for losing teams their rookie years (Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Steve McNair), 4 of the 5 had non-losing records the next year, while 3 of them (the Mannings and McNabb) took teams to the playoffs in their second year, meaning they had teams that rebuilt quickly in other areas as well (the Giants adding Plaxico Burris on offensive to help Eli, the Colts drafting Edgerrin James). McNair's Titans built up a strong offensive line and drafted Eddie George to help in the run game, while Aikman's Cowboys added Emmitt Smith the year after Aikman (as well as Michael Irvin the year Before Aikman) to create the famous "triplets."

So what's the secret to sucess for Sam Bradford? Play for a winning team. Since that looks unlikely, hope to God that the Rams recognize that the most important thing for Bradford's development is to spend high picks the next few years on getting him offensive talent. Steven Jackson should help, but I'm not sure the Rams have the wide receivers or tight ends needed to make plays for Sam, and I'm definitely sure their offensive line is atrocious.

In conclusion, history tells us little as to whether it's better or not for Bradford to start. What it does tell us is that, assuming that he has the talent to be an NFL quarterback to begin with (and I think he does), his team's approach to the 2nd and 3rd years of his career will be far more important. Do they keep the same coaching staff and ensure stability? Do they draft players at their areas of need on offense? Far too many times there are teams like the Lions with Harrington and the Texans with Carr who just assume that quarterbacks will just keep "progressing" until they transform into Pro Bowl quarterbacks. It doesn't work that way. Yes, players should improve each year (Harrington and Carr both did, actually), but they can't take that proverbial "next step" without NFL-quality talent around them. Bradford won't be able to, either.