Monday, September 29, 2008

Why I've More or Less Proven That You Can't Listen to Me.

Now that the regular season is more or less over other than the feces flinging between the Twins and White Sox, I thought this would be a good time to look back at my hilariously bad preseason predictions-

AL East-
Predicted:
1. Red Sox 97-65
2. Yankees 88-74
3. Rays 84-78
4. Blue Jays 82-80
5. Orioles 64-98

Actual:
1. Tampa BayRays 97-65
Okay, so I wasn't ready to stake the farm on them, but I had faith in this team. Nobody expected this though, but good for them.

2. Boston Red Sox 95-67
They more or less did what everyone thought they would do, and would have won the division but for the miracle Rays.

3. New York Yankees 89-73
I was only off by one game. This team is Old, and I think everyone but them (and Sports Illustrated) knew that.

4. Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
The injury prone rotation kept them short of the playoffs, as I predicted. Scott Rolen sucks.

5. Baltimore Orioles 68-93
Fuck Andy MacPhail.

I did a better job predicting this division than most, as you'll see with my AL Central and West Previews.

AL Central-

Predicted:
1. Detroit Tigers 95-67
2. Cleveland Indians 92-70
3. Chicago White Sox 77-85
4. Minnesota Twins 73-89
5. Kansas City Royals 71-91

Actual:
1A. Minnesota Twins 88-74
Oh come on, like you thought they'd be good.

1B. Chicago White Sox 88-74
I hate this division, I hate this team, I hate their manager, I hate their fan. I hate that they seem intent on dredging their way to a three game sweep at the hands of the Rays.

3. Cleveland Indians 81-81
I said Fausto Carmona wasn't a fluke. He was. I said Travis Hafner would rebound. He didn't. I said CC Sabathia would be great in his free agent year. He was. For Milwaukee. Fuck.

4. Kansas City Royals 75-87
They won 75 games, their best season since 2003. Wulf.

5. Detroit Tigers 74-88
I had them in the world series, and so did Sports Illustrated. Sadly, you'll see I whiffed worse on other teams.

AL West:
1. Seattle Mariners 89-73
2. California Angels 86-76
3. Oakland Athletics 76-86
4. Texas Rangers 72-90

Actual:
1. California Angels 100-62
I still don't know if they're as good as their record, but they sure told me to go fuck myself.

2. Texas Rangers 79-83
I was right, Josh Hamilton WAS a good pickup.

3. Oakland Athletics 75-86
Probably my most accurate prediction.

4. Seattle Mariners 61-101
This is what I get for doubting sabermetrics. Their pythagorean W-L in 2007 said they were worse than their 88-74 record, and I should have jumped ship when I saw that Jose Vidro was DHing. God. This is probably my worst call, but there's one more you'll laugh your ass off at.

NL East-

Predicted:
1. Philadelphia Phillies 92-70
2. New York Mets 89-73
3. Washington Nationals 83-79
4. Atlanta Braves 81-81
5. Florida Marlins 69-93

Actual:
1. Philadelphia Phillies 92-70
I got one! I got one!

2. New York Mets 89-73
On a roll baby!

3. Florida Marlins 84-78
This just proves that the Marlins are determined to screw with me at every possible opportunity.

4.Atlanta Braves 72-90
I overestimated my win total, but did say the following: "Glavine doesn't have much left in him in his second Atlanta go-round, Mike Hampton won't make it through the season, Tim Hudson has posted just one great season in his Atlanta tenure, and I don't think they even know who their fifth starter is. I see this team stumbling out of the gate and trading Teixera at the deadline" Eh? Pretty good prognostication, right? Remember that when we get to...

5. Washington Nationals 59-102
Seriously I'm not sure whether this is worse than my Mariners prediction or not. I thought that the new ballpark and a potentially talented lineup would get them a few wins. But seriously Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Ryan Zimmerman, and Paul Lo Duca all had below average seasons, and Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson both missed most of the season. Can I really be blamed for that much bad luck befalling Washington?

NL West-

Predicted:
1. Colorado Rockies 91-71
2. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
3. Los Angeles Dodgers 85-77
4. San Diego Padres 79-83
5. San Fransisco Giants 63-99

Actual:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 84-78
So I was actually pretty close on their record, I just underestimated how thin this division really was.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks 81-81
Their offense, which was hit or miss last year, was more miss.

3. Colorado Rockies 74-88
Their pitching just absolutely fell apart. I guess their total badassitude in High Heat 2002 has always made me wish that the Rockies could have sustained success. Oh the follies of youth.

4. San Fransisco Giants 70-92
Well, they sucked, but not as much as thought..so that's...good for them? Tim Lincecum is the balls.Other than this team is still screwed offensively.

5. San Diego Padres 63-99
Speaking of sucking offensively, how has Kevin Towers managed to justify letting this offense degrade year after year? They were mediocre or less than from 2004-2007, and showed absolutely no power, and yet no remedy was even attempted. One mediocre showing from their pitching staff and they sank into oblivion. They finished last in the NL in runs, OBP, and steals, and were damn near the bottom in every other category. I've had to watch some horrible Cubs teams in my life, but most of those could be attributed to horrible pitching, the hardest ones to watch are the ones with no semblance of an offense. Adrian Gonzalez probably weeps everytime he looks at the lineup card.

NL Central-

Predicted:
1. Chicago Cubs 95-67
2. Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
3. Houston Astros 77-85
4. Cincinnati Reds 75-87
5. St. Louis Cardinals 72-90
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 70-92

Actual:

1. Chicago Cubs 97-64
I was criticized for suggesting they'd win 95 games, but this team's proven over and over again that it's just too much of a juggernaut to slow down. There were no injuries, no excuses, no prima donna superstarts collecting paychecks from a hot tub, Lou Piniella knew all season just what buttons to push and this team posted its best record since 1945. Hopefully they've got 11 more wins left in them.

2. Milwaukee Brewers 90-72
They nearly blew it again, but managed to go 5-1 against the vaunted Pirates and the Iowa Cubs to outlast the choking Mets. They think they have momentum, but I won't be surprised when that falls apart against the Phillies.

3. Houston Astros 86-75
They think Bud Selig killed their season, but perhaps a 44-51 first half and the fact that they surrendered more runs than they scored (pythagorean W-L 77-84) deserves its fair share of the blame. Their pitching was as miserable behind Oswalt as expected. They'll be worse next year.

4.St. Louis Cardinals 86-76
I've come to the conclusion that this team will never be as bad as it should be, let alone as bad as I Want it to be.The difference is that now I just don't care. They can't touch the Cubs this year, and really we've had the upperhand head to head ever since Dusty's days. They just chucked a ton of money at Kyle Lohse and that will hopefully bite them.

5. Cincinnati Reds 74-88
They were about as bad as I expected them to be. Some people in the national media seemed to think that the combination of young talent and Dusty's "leadership" would spur them to a better record, but anyone with experience with Dustbag (i.e., Cubs fans), knew he'd play the wrong players (Corey, Bako) and run the good ones into the ground (Harang, Cueto, Volquez). They need to wake up and fire him before he ruins their future.

6.Pittsburgh 67-95
I just...I know only one Pirates fan, and he's a bald history teacher who developed a brain tumor and had to have it removed recently. Coincidence? I think not.

So there you have it....some hits, some misses, some total what-the-fuck-was-he-thinking calls. Just don't listen to me. Don't do it.