Thursday, September 24, 2009

Start Kyle Orton Roundtable- Week 3 NFL Picks

Yesterday we gave our picks for College, today it's every NFL game.

Washington @ Detroit

Iggins!:God this game will suck. I think the lions will take this chance to finally get a win, but who cares? Lions Win.

Code Red: I’d love for this to be Detroit’s chance at a win. I really would. But Washington’s defense is actually good and so far Stafford has yet to note that a linebacker is Not an offensive player. Washington wins, but Detroit will get theirs in week 8 against the Rams, or week 11 against the Browns. Or both. Skins.

Green Bay @ St. Louis

Code Red: Green Bay. St. Louis remains remarkably shitty. It’s already race between them and Cleveland for the #1 overall pick.

Iggins!: Wow the Packer’s offensive line is terrible. I’m going to assume losing to the Bungals was due to the Bengals being much better. For now. Green Bay wins.

San Francisco @ Minnesota

Iggins!: The Vikings have shown two things: 1) They were down at halftime to the two worst teams in the NFL and 2) Adrian Peterson is their only form of offense. Samurai Mike won’t let the Vikings beat them with that kind of predictable bullshit. 49ers win.

Code Red: The 49ers will actually force Brett Favre to throw more than 5 yards downfield, and that will lead to bad things. The Fightin’ Singletary’s will take it.

Atlanta @ New England

Code Red: Falcons. And man will I savor the 1-2 Patriots.

Iggins!: Wow New England should be 0-2 LEODIS MCKELVIN I’M TALKING TO YOU. They look bad and Atlanta looks great. Atlanta wins.

Tennessee @ NY Jets

Iggins!: I believe in the NY Jets and Rex Ryan. The Titans both scare AND confuse me. Easy choice. NY Jets win.

Code Red: I like the Jets and Rex Ryan, but their bound to suffer a drop off in intensity after the circus of the New England game. Tennessee is too good to start 0-3. Titans win.

Kansas City @ Philly

Code Red: Philly. I don’t care if McNabb is still out, the Chiefs suck and I hate Matt Cassell, aka, Scott Mitchell the Deuce.

Iggins!: I don’t think the Chiefs are this bad. I can’t believe that yet. They played the Ravens hard and for some reason the Raiders are keeping it close in every game despite having nothing that anyone could call an offense. But Philly is just too good. Philly Wins.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

Iggins!: This really isn’t so much about the Giants being good as it is about the Bucs being really, really bad. NY Giants win.

Code Red: What he said. Giants.

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Code Red: Baltimore. Holy shit, Baltimore. The Browns are awful. So awful. Brady Quinn is utterly incapable of throwing a deep ball. Jeff Garcia mocks his temerity.

Iggins!: The Ravens could win this game with their 2nd string. Baltimore wins.

Jacksonville @ Houston
Iggins!: You know people were picking Jacksonville to contend for the division title? You know those people have now been put into mental institutions? Houston wins.

Code Red: I don’t remember people picking Jacksonville for a division title. They blow. Houston.

Chicago @ Seattle

Iggins!: SENECA WALLACE YOU WILL PAY. Bears win.

Code Red: Perhaps a story is necessary. For those of you who aren’t Hawkeye fans, Seneca Wallace led the Cyclones to hand Iowa its only regular season defeat during the 2002 season. Iggins! has never recovered from this. He’s totally right though. The Bears will finally run the ball, and Cutler will have a chance to use the play action pass to set up the deep ball. Bears, 28-14.

Miami @ San Diego

Code Red: Miami held the ball for 3 full quarters against the Colts and still lost. Despite his great season last year, Chad Pennington’s arm strength is already leading the Dolphins to discuss starting Chad Henne. The Chargers will look to bounce back after the Ravens loss. San Diego will stop the wildcat, and Miami will have no offense. Chargers.

Iggins!: Sigh. I really don’t want to put Miami down to go 0-3… But I don’t think they have a chance. Chargers win.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Iggins!: This is very spicy. The Bengals might be having a mini-resurgence. Benson (the bastard) is running really well and the passing game is deadly. Couple that with the loss of Polamalu and, well… I think I convinced myself. Bengals win.

Code Red: You are bold, my friend. But are you daring? I agree that the Bengals look much improved, but they aren’t at that point yet. Steelers.

Denver @ Oakland

Code Red: It’s really sad. I should be ecstatic that some nice plays by Brandon Stokely have allowed KO to post some decent numbers, even if he’s looked shaky most of the time. I should be happy that Denver fans might stop hating him. Except I’m so god damn tired of jackasses like Peter King saying “here’s an interesting stat, Kyle Orton 1-0, Jay Cutler 0-1” without considering the fact that the Broncos have won on the flukiest fluke play in the history of fluke, and the other win was also hardly convincing. Broncos fans are ecstatic that their defense held the Browns without a touchdown, ignoring the fact that the Browns have scored exactly one touchdown against the entire league since last November. With that said, Oakland’s defense is legit, and they’ll be able to run the ball against Denver. Oakland wins a close one. Sorry, Kyle.

Iggins!: How has Oakland managed to have two close games with perhaps the worst QB ever at the helm? Hell they aren’t even running the ball well! I don’t get it. So the Broncos win and then promptly lose their next 5 games in a row.

Indy @ Arizona

Code Red: Indy’s defense looked like shit against the Dolphins. This game should be a fun one to watch, but the Cardinals will win the shootout.

Iggins!: I don’t believe you, Indianapolis. Arizona wins.

Carolina @ Dallas

Code Red: Romo vs. Delhomme. Which one will throw more mind-numbingly stupid picks? I say Delhomme. Cowboys win.

Iggins!: Both of these teams seem to get every major sports outlet to jump on their cocks every season. Which is why I enjoy watching both of them lose, and is also why this game is so hard for me. Cowboys win, I guess.

Statistics revisited

In response to my post yesterday Code Red (who loves his advanced metrics) pointed me to footballoutsiders.com, a website that attempts to satisfy my need for better statistics in football. It's not a bad website for statistics, and the DVOA and DYAR are good parameters for running backs. The defensive and offensive line statistics are relatively sound too, but there is still the all-encompassing problem of separating line play and running back play from one another. I think the running back statistics are pretty well formed. The aforementioned Frank Gore sits at the right spot.

However, the statistics at that website don't work for wide receivers and only semi-work for quarterbacks. To me, a quarterback makes a wide receiver look good. You can have Randy Moss and Andre Johnson on your team, but if Jonathan Quinn is your starting QB their stats are going to reflect that. Because of this, wide receiver statistics are consistently misleading. Even on footballoutsiders they make note that their catch rate statistic only involves the percentage of catches made when that receiver has been thrown to, and does not only include drops. So essentially, If Cutler throws a pass over Johnny Knox's head, that counts against him, which to me makes their wide receiver statistics largely irrelevant.

Knox
I use the example of Johnny Knox because his catch rate is currently a 63%, even though I only remember him dropping one pass. It also doesn't factor in wide receivers who aren't given many opportunities. Another Chicago example would be Devin Hester. He's made some truly great catches this year and has done everything very well, but he hasn't had many opportunities to show off his abilities yet, making it difficult to rank him compared to other receivers. Also, if dropped passes aren't factored in, I can't truly get a number on how poorly Greg Olsen has been playing.

Also, there should be a way to account for the "one bad game". Cutler had a terrible game against Green Bay, but let's say that was the exception, not the rule (so I can keep my sanity). How do we account for that? If by the end of the year that was his one bad game, should those statistics be weighted less?

This is just food for thought. Honestly I think football is too complicated a game to get very many true statistical measures. Basically, I encourage people to watch the football games and then make an assessment of a player based on what you saw. Statistics can often be hollow and misleading in the great sport of football.