Bills 23, Bears 20- Sigh

And so it begins. You might be expecting another impassioned speech of mine as to why you're all morons for overreacting to this garbage. Maybe I'll cite some anecdotal evidence (Mark Potash pointed out that 13 playoff teams in the last 12 years have opened their seasons with losses at home to non-playoff teams, that's a good one). Maybe I'll point out where other good teams fucked up this week, too (I mean did anyone see a 13 point Dolphins win or Atlanta managing to beat New Orleans?). Maybe I'll make reference to past Bears playoff teams that had their share of embarrassing moments on the way to the playoffs (see the 2010 Bears and, well, really just about any game they lost, but particularly that Redskins game. Woof). In the end I'd point to the yardage advantage the Bears posted, the considerable talent they possess on offense, point out that the defense actually improved considerably on a per play basis and in getting third down stops vs. last year even if they did undo themselves by allowing three long runs, and I'd tell you all not to worry.

Well, worry. Go ahead. I don't know what this team can do. My heart and mind are both trying to tell me that a team with this much talent, particularly offensively, can't possibly win less than 10 games. Then again, Dallas has made a cottage of industry of doing just that, and so did last year's Bears. I'm not giving up on them. That's foolish. I can easily see them getting those 10-11 wins they need, even still. They're never going to be out of any ballgame with the guys they have, but they certainly can't afford to put themselves out of games like they did yesterday.

So no, I can't tell you it's all going to be okay. Maybe the sky is falling. I  doubt that, too. We're just going to have to do this the old-fashioned way and watch. And pray.

Your 2014 Bears Training Camp/Roster Breakdown: The Offense

FOOTBALL IS BACK. Sure, we're a few weeks away still from a meaningless exhibition game that will serve the purpose of angering all of the wrong people in all of the wrong ways, but people are out there, RIGHT NOW (depending on when I post this) hitting each other in football pads. We have almost made it through the tyranny and oppression of that terrible no man's land where no sports are played except for something called baseball, which I'm told is a pastoral game not unlike cricket. Football has come to save us all, as it always does, until the terrifying, heart-attack inducing reality that is football season actually sets in and my wife spends every Sunday trying to cool me down as I sweat like an Illinois governor at an ethics hearing and my skin turns redder than than Krypton's sun. 

So now it's time to do the breakdown of what is, honest to God, the strongest unit on the Bears this year: the offense. There's going to be some breathless, erotic analysis coming here so I warn you, you may want to loosen the pants. I certainly did.

QUARTERBACKS:

#6 Jay Cutler, #8 Jimmy Clausen, #2 Jordan Palmer, #12 David Fales

There's a lot of talk this year about Cutler maturing, finally being at peace with himself and his surroundings, taking on the true responsibilities of leadership and well, OK. Here's the thing: all of that may be true. Hell it probably is true. He's got a lot to feel comfortable about as he's finally entering year two of a system he likes (and that he knows actually fucking works), he's got everyone back on offense around him, and in a nice change of pace that's actually a really awesome thing. But there's probably not much of a difference personality-wise in this year's Cutler than in last years. The people writing those stories just know that Jay was doing damn well last year before he got hurt, and there's nothing but injury that's going to stop him from having the best year a Bears quarterback has ever had at the minimum (and probably a hell of a lot more than that). They just don't want to be caught hanging onto their manufactured Jay Cutler bullshit from years past when it happens.

He's Baaaaack

You can never say that Phil Emery is lazy. When he makes up his mind, he gets things done--fast.

Today, as you undoubtedly know, Phil opened his end of the year press conference with the nonchalant announcement that the team had agreed to deals with Matt Slauson, Tim Jennings, and some jerk with bad sideline demeanor. Then he dropped the mic and walked off stage.

I'm kidding. Because this is Phil Emery, he talked for 90 more minutes and left no doubt that he was undoubtedly the smartest S.O.B. in the room. Because of that, he made the smart move and brought back his franchise quarterback for at least three more years (yes, the deal says 7, but if there's no guaranteed money after year three it's a 3 year deal, folks. The rest is monopoly money).

Sure, there are questions about this. Was Jay worth $18 million a year? Probably not. Few people are. But you pay to play in this business, and  if you can honestly say you don't think Jay's market value was right where he landed (somewhere between Tony Romo and Matt Ryan in terms of guaranteed cash), you're a fool. Can Jay stay healthy? I'll admit that's certainly my biggest concern.

Despite this, I am obviously in favor of the extension. I'm not going to lay out the financial arguments since I have no idea where exactly the the 2014 cap hit will fall and I am interested in seeing what else Phil is able to do in free agency after this. I will say that Phil Emery is as straightforward and honest as a general manager gets, and if he says the team will have the flexibility to sign who they want in free agency, I believe him.

From a football standpoint, Jay is worth the money. Jay had his best year this year in many categories, with a career high QB rating of 89.2 and a completion % of 63.1, his highest since 2007. He also had a career high TD% of 5.4, putting him on pace for 30 TD passes had he played the whole season. If you're into advanced metrics like myself, Jay finished 10th in the NFL with a +13.7 grade from Pro Football Focus and finished 6th in their adjusted QB rating statistic (takes into account dropped passes, throwaways, passes where the QB was hit before throwing, and more) at 91.7. If you're into weird statistics invented by Trent Dilfer that put way too much emphasis on Clutchitude, he was 8th in the NFL in Total QBR.

To me, the most encouraging thing was Jay's growth in the offense as the season went along. After he compiled an 85.7 passer rating and 6.8 YPA through the first four games as his comfort level in the offense and his protection grew, Jay and Trestman unleashed the deep ball as the season went on. In his final 6 full games as a starter (excluding the 8 passes he threw vs. the Redskins before the groinsplosion) Jay completed 63.3% of his passes for 264 YPG, 8.0 YPA, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 95.9 rating. Provided he stays healthy, I'd expect those numbers to be what we can expect going forward in year two of this offense (and it's worth noting this is just the third time in Jay's career he will be in the same offense for two straight years). That's worth paying for.

Putting aside any kind of argument whatsoever, I'll admit that I am happy about this because I like Jay Cutler. I like rooting for him, and I think he's fun as hell to watch, especially when he's in an offense like this that let's him thrive. I am glad I won't have to spend next year watching Josh McCown regress to the mean or some potentially hapless rookie and wonder what Jay could have done with another offseason of Trestman's tutelage. For better or for worse, we're going to get the definitive answer to what Jay is capable of in the years to come. The debate is now over. All that's left is to ride that beautiful armcock to the Superbowl.

Oh, and good job on the Slauson/Jennings thing, Phil. Those guys are good too. Go Bears.


Unrelated: if you're wondering when the hell we're going to do a SKOdCast and discuss all of the exciting shit that's gone down lately, the answer is soon. We're working on a new day of the week now that our schedules have changed once more. You'll not miss us for much longer, I assure you.

Opinionating: Ten Thoughts on the Bears and Beyond

1) Marc Trestman loves him some bunch formations. I first noticed this watching highlights this summer of Trestman's offense up in Montreal, but he really likes the mismatches created by bunch formations, shotgun or not. They even lined up a few times with Fiametta, Martellus Bennett, and Kyle Adams or Steve Maneri in the bunch and just a single wide receiver. Between the size of the Bears receivers and the versatility of Bennett...this should be a very profitable formation for the team throughout the season.

2)Matt Slauson looks like a great pickup. I didn't single him out in my recap, but PFF had Slauson as the Bears' second highest graded lineman after Mills at a +2.3, and he really has done a great job in the preseason and now in week one setting the pocket. He doesn't look dominant in anything he does, but he he doesn't make many mistakes. He's just now entering the prime of his career at 27 and it's possible some of that money Emery has been moving around to create cap room might be headed his way as part of a midseason extension. His beard is epic, too.

3)Jamie Dukes said what? Apparently Jamie Dukes of NFL Network said the Bears offense looked no different than it did under Lovie while he was a guest on the Score. If Dukes can find me tape of any game in the entire Lovie Era where the Bears ran 30+ plays out of the shotgun (as they did Sunday), I'll eat my laptop.

4) I was really impressed with Trestman's utter refusal to panic. 21-10 seemed pretty pants-shitting worthy at the time, but Trestman continued to mix up his playcalling with runs and passes and focus on high % plays. The offense finally established a rhythm and the Bengals had no answer for it. It was a far cry from the days of Mike Martz screaming "fuck this" and calling 52 passes and only 12 runs like he did against the Saints in 2011 even though they only trailed 16-14 into the 3rd quarter.

5) His day was rather unremarkable from a statistics standpoint, but I was really pleased with Alshon Jeffery on Sunday. Three of his five catches were for first downs, and after looking at it again I'm pretty sure he actually caught the pass on 3rd and 2 that was ruled incomplete on the Bears first drive. He'll have bigger days, but with all of the attention Marshall draws and with M. Bennett now stretching the middle of the field, Jeffery just needs to be a reliable chain-mover, and that's something that Jay didn't have when Jeffery was injured or shuffled in and out of the lineup last year.

6) I've never made any secret of my love of Carson Palmer, even though he's hardly the QB he once was before the injuries. I am glad to see that he was productive in his first day in Bruce Arian's offense. I was less pleased to see that the Cardinals o-line, unsurprisingly, still has some major issues, especially without Cooper. Between Arians gung-ho vertical approach and that line's protection, I predict Carson will be well on pace for another 4,000 YD season when he dies on the field in week seven.

7) Clay Matthews and Suh should both be suspended. They won't be, of course, because good players are often inexplicably immune to Goodell's banhammer. In Matthew's case especially I cannot fathom the hypocrisy of a league that hammers away at "player safety first" and then just ignores when a linebacker who spent all week vowing to hit the quarterback launches himself at said quarterback several yards out of bounds. I mean, does Greg Williams have to offer money to a player to get him to try to intentionally hurt a quarterback in order to make it wrong?

8) Danny Amendola is hurt again. You may not be surprised by this, but I would think the Patriots must be, because the only way I can understand passing on giving Welker a modest extension in favor of signing Amendola is if they were somehow kept in the dark about the fact that Amendola's injury history makes Bob Sanders look like a regular iron man. Bill Belichick the GM is rapidly falling into that AJ Smith territory where early success has convinced him all players are replaceable and thus not worth paying, and it's possible the Pats O could start to suffer the same regression that's plagued their defense since 2007.

9) The tempo of Chip Kelly's offense and it's radical effect on the NFL is going to be widely overstated. Even after running 53 plays in a first half where Washington did everything it could to avoid picking up first downs or maintaining possession, the Eagles only finished with 77 plays (the Skins managed to finish with 70, which is impressive given their weak showing in the first half), not the 80 or so that Kelly desires. I'm willing to bet the Eagles will average little more than the 74 plays a game that New England managed while leading the league last year. That's not to say the offense isn't going to be very successful. As long as Vick stays healthy and makes good decisions (and we know those are big ifs), that offense will do good things, I just think people should be focusing more on the quality of the plays the Eagles run, and not the quantity.

10) The Colts struggling to put away the Raiders reinforced what I already predicted this season for Indianapolis: Luck himself will be more accurate and productive now that he's reunited with Pep Hamilton (most famously known as Rex Grossman's QB coach in 2006, or Luck's old OC at Stanford, I guess), but that Colts defense will keep them from sniffing anywhere near 11 wins again this year.

Opinionating: Ten Thoughts on the Bears and Beyond

Welcome to this week's installment of Opinionating, where I use my inflated sense of my own self-worth to share my musings on the Bears assuming you care.

1) Brandon Marshall will be fine.  There was some fuss today from the media because Marshall made some cryptic comments about feeling rushed in his recovery from surgery and his hip not being 100%, and Trestman made a seemingly innocuous but mildly concerning comment about Marshall putting up big numbers "if he plays all 16 games." I have to say I'm not worried. I cannot possibly imagine the Bears putting Marshall into two preseason games and then having him unable to compete in the regular season because of his recovery isn't complete. If that's the case, the entire training staff should be fired. Either way, I'd expect Brandon to tough it out considering he had an All-Pro type year with the hip injury that required the surgery, anyway.

2)Moon Mullin is insane, and apparently has the memory of a house fly. Mullin was one of the main pot-stirrers this morning, writing this piece of crap about Marshall's comments. I don't even think the bullshit comes from him writing about Marshall's injury comments, which were admittedly odd and seemingly out of the blue, but from him overreacting to Marshall saying he's still finding his place in the offense. Mullin states that Marshall may be worried about being passed up by Jeffery, and uses Jeffery getting twice as many targets in one half of preseason football as Marshall as evidence. This just a week after Mullin, I shit you not, was one of the chorus of reactionaries criticizing Jay for targeting Marshall too much. The Chicago media can't go one fucking PRESEASON GAME without sticking their own heads up their asses just to argue with their colons about what they want to shit out on their next column.

Brandon Marshall has played in four different offenses in his NFL career, and he's never had less than 1000 yds in any of those seasons. I think he can handle whatever role he's given.

3) I think Marquess Wilson will not only make the roster, but could work his way into a 50/50 timeshare with Earl Bennett as the third wide receiver well before the midpoint of the season. This isn't an overreaction to a couple of nice preseason catches so much as affirmation that the talent he put on display at Washington State has rightfully overrode any concerns about his personality that dropped him to the seventh round. Also, sadly, if Earl even makes it to the midpoint of the season healthy I'll be amazed.

4)I don't know how I'll ever get over the Bears cutting Matt Blanchard. He was their best backup QB prospect since Caleb Hanie.

5)He's been forgotten in all the buzz about Long and Mills and even Bushrod (who plays the "glamor" spot of the OL), but Matt Slauson looks like a fantastic pick-up. We'll see how the season shakes out, but if he can repeat the solid performance he put up as a Jet last year I think an extension for him would be high on Phil's list, with the rest of the OL (assuming Mills and Long stay starters) under contract for the next few years.

6)Lance Louis was released today. That's a fact, not an opinion, but it's worth mentioning. I am glad that Phil decided not to trust the guard spot to a guy with one working leg, even though many at the time were quite upset to lose the best Bears offensive lineman from the past several years. Louis has always had issues with injuries, though, so it'll be interesting to see if anyone takes another chance on a one-dimensional, injury prone guard.

7)Also, the Louis news has me thinking that Jeff Ireland may be taking the Jerry Angelo approach to building around a franchise QB. Build an offensive line out of washed up veterans and a second year tackle who sucked on the right side as a rookie but will somehow play better at left tackle because "it's his natural position." I'll admit to thinking Tannehill would be a bust, when it turns out the kid can probably play, but he's going to have a hard time developing behind that protection.

8)I still feel really, really bad about Kevin Kolb. Robert Mays of Grantland said that Kolb's issue was an inability to avoid hits, which, even if true (and I don't believe it is. Kolb was sliding after a scramble when he took a knee to the back of his head. How the hell could he have avoided that?), seems unnecessarily cruel. Let's blame a guy who may suffer from a debilitating brain injury for the rest of his life for the death of his career while its body is still warm. I'd really like to put Mays behind last year's Cardinals offensive line to demonstrate the proper way to avoid a hit in that situation. You'd have a better chance of avoiding a hit if you ratted on Aaron Hernandez than playing behind that line (Last Hernandez joke I'll ever make. I swear. Unless you thought it was funny).

9) I love Mike Leach way more than I should, and his reaction to Jeff Tuel (his QB last year at Washington State) starting week one was classic.

10) I am terribly sad that no one in all of this quarterback insanity has signed JaMarcus Russell. Come on, that would be hysterical, and you know it. Nobody in the NFL knows the value of losing in hilarious fashion, except Rex Ryan. Clearly. Pull the trigger, Rex. JaMarcus is the way.

2012 Bears Position Reviews: The Offensive Line

How hard is it to fix an offensive line? I ask this not in a sarcastic way, like "Jesus, how dumb are you people to not have fixed this yet?" but legitimately. The Bears problems on the offensive line go back many years, ever since the 2001 Bears were one of the league's best, and yet oldest, groups. Angelo, in his first go round at running a draft, took Marc Colombo in the first round in order to provide youthful talent to the unit. Colombo, to Angelo's credit, was a solid left tackle for several years...for the Cowboys, after he lost nearly all three years of his rookie contract with the Bears to a devastating knee injury.

The Colombo experience seemed to sour Angelo on investing premium draft picks on offensive linemen, and from 2003-2010 he drafted just one offensive lineman, Chris Williams, above the fourth round (in that time he spent one fourth round pick on Josh Beekman, and spent six seventh round and one sixth round pick on various projects, with only two middling "successes" in Lance Louis and J'Marcus Webb) before public fury forced his hand on picking Gabe Carimi.

With such a low investment of draft resources on the unit, Angelo had to find his answers in free agency. In a lot of ways, his rise and fall as a general manager had more to do with his declining success at signing free agent offensive linemen than his much-maligned misses on high draft picks. After Angelo completely overhauled the line in 2004-2005 with the additions of John Tait, Ruben Brown, Fred Miller, and Roberto Garza (and you can say what you want about Angelo or about Brown, Miller, and Garza's performance in their later years, these were great pickups), the Bears had a very effective run and pass-blocking unit that played a major part in the team's 2006 title run by clearing the way for Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. 

Unfortunately, if you are forced to rely on highly-paid free agent offensive linemen and you don't invest in providing depth behind them with valuable draft picks, you're in for a bad time once those veterans age out of effectiveness. In 2007 Miller and Brown utterly collapsed, and Olin Kreutz began his slow decline as well. Tait retired after 2008, leaving the Bears with a gap at left tackle they've spent four years struggling to fill.

As we know, Jerry whiffed with Chris Williams and later Gabe Carimi, leaving the success of the line again dependent on low-round projects and free agents. Jerry failed to duplicate his earlier success in this department, throwing away millions on has-beens like Orlando Paces and oh-no-fucking-way-will-he-ever-bes like Frank Omiyale. The result was a line that's ranked 31st, 32nd, and 30th overall in the last three years according to Pro Football Focus. Some will give Angelo credit for "getting good value" in finding seventh rounders like Louis and Webb who developed into passable starters, but this team suffered greatly as those two took their lumps, and the other three spots around them still sucked this year. Not to mention the fact that Webb didn't show enough even in his best year to stave off getting replaced on the blind side and Louis left in free agency.

So what does it take to fix this mess? Money, in the form of contracts handed out to Bushrod and Slauson, who are both on the right side of thirty and have plenty of proven experience, which wasn't the case for the worn-out Pace or the unproven Omiyale. It's also going to take a willingness to continually invest at least second day draft picks in the position on a continual basis, whether the team feels confident in their current batch of guys or not. Experience has shown that injury, inconsistency, and age will strike at any time. I still think they'd be best served, even with Bushrod and Slauson on board, to take an interior lineman in round one.

Now that I've spent six paragraphs without reviewing a single player, I'm going to try and keep this short and sweet:

Tackles:

#73 J'Marcus Webb: 16 games, 16 games started, 7 sacks allowed. 

I really don't mean to sell J'Marcus short. He made huge strides last season, and he's still young and talented enough to be a good tackle. I'm glad that Phil Emery understands that potential can only buy you so much time, and that the team is still better served throwing a proven, reliable left tackle on Jay's blindside and letting Webb have the chance to take his talent and his developing skills as a run blocker over to the right side, where his still-too-frequent mental lapses in pass protection will hopefully be less devastating. If not? Too bad. I doubt anyone will shed a tear and say the Bears didn't do everything they could for J'Marcus.

#72 Gabe Carimi: 16 games, 14 games started, 6.5 sacks allowed.

To be clear, Gabe doesn't necessarily have to be the next Chris Williams. He's an absolutely elite run-blocker, ranking 9th among all offensive tackles in the NFL according to PFF. There's reason to believe he can still be a productive player inside at guard (where his +4.2 rating in four games would have made him a top 15 guard in the NFL if he managed to do it for a full season), or even at tackle if he can find a way to be something less than a complete waste of space in pass-blocking. There are those who believe his recovery from the knee injury wasn't complete, and that the resulting lack of speed and agility crippled him in pass-blocking. I hope they're right. It would be a terrible waste if he can't become a valuable contributor somewhere, but I also hope the Bears aren't banking on him starting. As of right now I'm not really sold on a competition between Carimi and James Brown at guard being a good thing. The team needs to add one more guard in the draft so the team isn't forced to rely on either of those two panning out as a quality starter.

#79 Jon Scott: 12 games, 7 games started, 1 sack allowed.

Scott is about the very definition of a swing tackle. He can play left or right tackle and he won't get utterly embarrassed in pass protection. He'll give up hurries and hits but not necessarily sacks. He also gets zero push in the run game. He was an adequate band-aid last year, and I'm not upset that the Bears re-signed him, so long as they don't start him for any reason other than injury. 

#74 Chris Williams: 3 games, 0 games started, 1 sack allowed.

He was bad, and it's over. I've wasted too many lines on him already. Sigh.

Guards:

#60 Lance Louis: 11 games, 11 games started, 2.5 sacks allowed.

Lance Louis is a very good pass-protecting guard. He's also a very bad run-blocking guard. On the Bears offense, you'll take the good pass-blocking every time. If Lance had never gotten hurt, I think he'd have gotten himself an extension and would still be a Bear. With the injury, however, he was never going to get what he wanted from the team. In the end Phil managed to grab a player of similar age with more experience, who is an even better pass blocker, and is a slightly less-bad run-blocker to replace Lance, one who isn't coming off a knee injury (and doesn't have a history of missing games with injury every year of his career, as Lance has). I kind of love you, Phil Emery. I wish Lance well in Miami, though.

#67 Chris Spencer: 10 games, 5 games started, 1.5 sacks allowed.

After a very good 2011 that led both the Bears and myself to think he was somehow just a guy who found his untapped potential after six season, Spencer regressed last year and lost his job early, and never really re-claimed it despite numerous opportunities. While he allowed just one sack, he allowed frequent hits, hurries, and disruptions, and his shoddy run-blocking performance was more in line with the rest of his career than his 2011 anomaly. No one will shed tears over his departure.

#62 Chilo Rachal: 9 games, 8 games started, 2.0 sacks allowed.

I was pretty enthused about the Chilo Rachal signing. He was always a dominant run-blocker in San Francisco, grading out as the top run-blocking guard in all of football in 2010 according to PFF, and his mental lapses in pass protection were often overrated by 49ers fans. In Chicago, however, he was an unmitigated disaster. He was actually worse as a run-blocker than Spencer, his mental-lapses in pass protection became complete systemic collapses, and he committed seven goddamn penalties in just eight starts, and Mike Tice fucking complemented him on his personal foul because he gave the team "an edge." Just not, like, an edge in competition against the opposing defense. He quit in a bitch fit after the 49ers game and will probably never take a snap in the NFL again.

#78 James Brown: 5 games, 3 games started, 3.0 sacks allowed.

*Don't Make James Brown Joke* *Don't Make James Brown Joke*...James Brown may have soul, but as a guard in 2012, he was super bad. Goddammit. Actually, after a horrible debut, Brown was somewhat less than awful in his last two starts, but there's nothing to give any evidence that he's got true potential. Again, I hope Emery has a plan to draft one more guard, because a James Brown/Carimi competition at guard could just be two wrongs failing to make a right.

#70 Edwin Williams: 6 games, 2 games started, 0.0 sacks allowed.

Edwin Williams has allowed just 1 sack in 14 career starts at guard. The reason he hasn't started every single game possible for the Bears is because he doesn't do much else besides provide adequate pass protection. He's not a dominant pass-blocker, as he allows plenty of pressure whether it gets home or not, and he's never been much of anything in the run game. This is why many people think his future is inside at center, where he played in college, and I'd certainly like to see him get a shot, since his lack of power and his smaller frame would be more suited in that role. Also because Roberto Garza is shitty.

#63 Roberto Garza: 16 games, 16 games started, 5.0 sacks allowed.

No offense, Roberto. You seem like a nice guy, and for a long stretch there you were a very, very good guard. That stretch ended in 2008. Since then you were a mediocre guard for two years, and a mediocre center for a year after that. Jerry Angelo gave you a f*&king contract extension for this. Now you're just plain bad. Garza allowed five sacks, a fairly high total for a center, and was still somehow a better pass blocker than a run blocker, mostly because he was utterly useless in that department. He can still get out there on pulls and screens, but he's otherwise beaten up and tossed in the trash by any half-decent nose guard. He also committed four false starts this year. My God. Roberto Garza is Olin Kreutz. We just can't get rid of that sonofabitch.

That's all for now. After 44 sacks allowed last year, and 149 allowed since 2010, the Bears have finally made it a real priority to upgrade this dumpster fire of a unit. Marc Trestman's scheme will certainly help, but we've heard that story before. The important thing is that Emery has shown a willingness to spend money on protecting his quarterback, and I hope he's willing to invest draft picks on it as well. We can only hope Bushrod, Slauson, and the hopeful rookie-to-be-named-later can lead to the first truly productive offensive line the Bears have had since Superbowl 41.