Week 6 NFL Picks

After last week the picks race on the NFL side stands on the exact opposite side of the spectrum, with me being up 30-12, and Red coming in with a 25-17 record. This puts us at a tie overall, which is unac-fucking-ceptable.

(2-3) Houston @ (4-1) Cincinnati

Iggins!: Clearly the Bengals are for real, and the Texans are more inconsistent than that case of herpes you got 2 years ago, and much like the Texans, they always show up at the wrong times. Cincinnati wins.

Code Red: The Bengals are certainly for real, but at some point they have to come down off this high they’re on, at least briefly. The Texans are dangerous enough to do it. Texans win.

(1-4) Detroit @ (2-2) Green Bay

Code Red: Green Bay is teetering on the brink. If this game were in Detroit I’d be tempted to go for the upset, but alas, Rodgers will be too much for the Lions in Lambeau. Packers win.

Iggins!: I totally agree with those sentiments. Packers win.

(3-2) Baltimore @ (5-0) Minnesota

Iggins!: DIE VIKINGS DIE. Ravens win.

Code Red: No seriously, fucking die. Ravens win.

(5-0) New York Giants @ (4-0) New Orleans

Code Red: This game should kick total ass. That is all. Breesus shall be the hand of victory, however. Saints Win.

Iggins!: Though shall not pick against Breesus. Saints win.

(1-4) Cleveland @ (3-2) Pittsburgh

Iggins!: Cleveland managed to participate in the worst game… ever, last week. The Steelers almost lost to Detroit, but that says more about the Lions than the Steelers. Steelers win.

Code Red: God damnit, Cleveland. You have fucked up my bet that you’d win the #1 overall pick by winning a game so ugly that it disgraced the very name of football. Pittsburgh shall make you pay. Steelers win.

(1-3) Carolina @ (0-5) Tampa Bay

Code Red: Carolina. And please, sweet jesus, get DeAngelo Williams some mother f*&king carries!

Iggins!: Tampa will win their first of the year. Tampa Bay wins.

(0-5) Kansas City @ (2-3) Washington

Iggins!: Wow, the ‘skins schedule is really easy early on. I keep picking the Chiefs and they refuse to get their first win. DO IT THIS WEEK DAMN YOU. Kansas City wins.

Code Red: Holy shit, I could not care less about the result of this football game. I’ll pick the Chiefs, just so this game is a wash.

(0-5) St. Louis @ (2-3) Jacksonville

Code Red: Jacksonville. They still blow, but the Rams are epically bad.

Iggins!: Hooray for shitty games? Jaguars win.

(2-2) Arizona @ (2-3) Seattle

Iggins!: Wow I really have no opinion as to who wins this game. Home team? Seattle wins.

Code Red: Nay. Cardinals win.

(3-1) Philadelphia @ (1-4) Oakland

Code Red: Oakland against a finally healthy Eagles team? Dear god. Eagles win.

Iggins!: The Raiders… jesus they’re terrible. Eagles win.

(0-5) Tennessee @ (3-2) New England

Iggins!: Well at least Vince Young will get to play again. New England wins.

Code Red: Oh yeah, that’ll be great. Maybe he’ll refuse to go in again after the fans are mean to him. New England wins.

(1-4) Buffalo @ (3-2) New York Jets

Code Red: The Jets have now dropped two straight, the Bills three. Only one of these teams is actually talented and well coached, and that’s the one that’ll break the skid. Jets win.

Iggins!: The Bills are just about as terrible as the Raiders. Jets win.

(3-1) Chicago @ (3-1) Atlanta

Iggins!: The Bears defense, special teams, and Cutler will be able to keep this one close and win it at the end. DA BEARS.

Code Red: The Bears should be out for blood after the debacle that was last year’s Falcons game. They’ve had their entire bye week to game plan for the Falcons and get everybody healthy. The Falcon’s defense is only allowing 15.8 ppg, but their low rankings in total yards (21^st in the league at 355.8 ypg), run defense (24^th in the league, 127.0 ypg), and pass defense (23^rd in the league, 228.8 ypg) suggest to me that luck has been on their side. They rank behind the Bears defense in every category other than PPG (Bears 19.5, Atlanta 15.8), interceptions (tied at 3 a piece), and forced fumbles (Bears 4, Falcons 5). The Bears have far more sacks (14 to 8), and the Bears offense is just as dangerous as Matt Ryan and company. Those defensive stats tell me the Falcons have some serious weaknesses that can be exploited. Cutler and Forte will do just that. BEARS, 27-23.

(5-0) Denver @ (2-2) San Diego

Code Red: It’s unthinkable that Denver could win this game to go to 6-0. It was also unthinkable that they make it to 4-0 and 5-0, but they did. The Chargers look completely inept against the run without Jamal Williams, as they’re allowing 151.0 ypg on the ground, good for 27^th in the league. The Broncos are averaging 139.0 yards rushing on offense, good for 5^th in the league. You tell me how this ends. Broncos win.

Iggins!: I acknowledge, begrudgingly, that the Broncos are a very good team. But methinks they’ll still lose to these guys and the Steelers. Chargers win.

Kyle Orton and Cedric Benson- Lovie and Ron's Fault?

My God, that's Hideous.

I've been hearing a lot the last few weeks how Lovie Smith and Ron Turner should be under scrutiny since they seem to be the most likely candidates as to why Cedric Benson and Kyle Orton didn't perform as well in Chicago as they have in their new towns. This is Grade A bullshit, and I'll tell you why. Let's start with the Patron Saint.

I've said all along that Josh McDaniels' offense is the perfect scheme for Kyle's strength. It makes use of multiple wide receiver sets, it features a lot of underneath throws and crossing routes, it makes the most of his two good runningbacks (Buckhalter and Moreno, who've combined to give Denver the league's 4th ranked rushing attack), and his four quality wide receivers (Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokely, and Jabar Gaffney), and his two quality tight ends (Daniel Graham, Tony Sheffler). The Broncos offense is basically the closest you'll find to a true spread offense anywhere in the NFL, and that naturally favors our friend Kyle, who ran the "basketball on grass" spread offense of Joe Tiller at Purdue.

A lot of people act like McDaniels' version of the spread, which has worked so well in New England, is the first version of it to hit the NFL. It's not. The Run and Shoot was pretty much the same attack back in the '80s and '90s. A closer version to a pure spread like the ones seen in the NCAA came to our very own Bears in 1999 under Gary Crowton. Remember 1999? The Bears actually had the 3rd ranked passing offense (yardage wise) in the NFL, which was the team's highest finish in that category in the modern era, and that was with the pathetically weak arms of Shane Matthews and Cade F%&king McNown at the helm for 13 games. That team scored just 17 ppg and went 6-10, however. The reason for this was the criticism common to all spread offenses- that they struggle in the red zone.

The problem is that when teams move from the "bend but don't break" philosophy that most defenses are forced to employ to their red zone defenses, the underneath stuff is taken away and teams have to revert to conventional out routes agains tighter coverage, the kinds of throws that NFL quarterbacks are made of. Orton, as we know, struggles with these, and the Broncos offense is a perfect example of the tendency of spread offenses to rack up yards and not points. The Broncos, despite Orton's 1,236 passing yards and the great run game leading to a 6th place ranking in total yards, are just 22nd in the league in scoring at 19.8 ppg.

This offensive scheme worked in New England two years ago and many people took it as proof that the spread could consistently succeed in the NFL. This isn't quite true. The Patriots attack of 2007 worked because it had in Tom Brady and Randy Moss a quarterback who can make all of the throws and a holy terror of a wide receiver. This opened up countless opportunities for Wes Welker underneath and made the whole spread work. Orton, no matter his great stats, isn't Tom Brady. Teams still don't have to cover every inch of the field, and the threat of the deep ball isn't a factor on every single play. Right now the Broncos are getting by on defense, and this offense is controlling the clock and scoring just enough points to win. At some point that probably won't be enough. The Broncos defense isn't the 2000 Ravens or the 2002 Bucs. They'll need an offense that can challenge downfield to win a big game, either to get into the playoffs or to win in the playoffs. We'll see if that works out.

This still doesn't address the original point, I suppose. Why wasn't Kyle Orton as successful in Chicago as he has been in Denver? My answer: He was. Throw out Kyle's rookie season, where he played the most conservative offense I've ever seen, and for good reason, and let's just focus on 2008. As I've mentioned, the 2009 Broncos are averaging 19.8 ppg, good for 22nd in the league. The 2008 Bears averaged 23.4 ppg, good for 14th in the NFL. Also interesting to note, here are Orton's current stats:

5 games, 5 games started, 104 of 165 (63.0%), 1236 yards, 7.5 ypa, 247.2 ypg, 7 tds, 1 int, 97.4 rating.

Now compare that to Orton's stats last year before his ankle injury:

7 games, 7 games started, 143 of 230 (62.2%), 1669 yards, 7.3 ypa, 238.4 ypg, 10 tds, 4 ints, 91.4 rating.

Now, his numbers in Denver are slightly better, but there's no doubt that Ron Turner's offense wasn't the complete misuse of Orton's skills we've been led to believe. Orton's ankle injury changed his entire throwing motion and the team's fortunes. He was hesitant to step into throws, he was less mobile, the offensive line wore down as the season went on (they gave up 19 sacks in the second half of the season, as opposed to 10 in the first half), and Kyle's stats went into decline. It's true that Orton isn't the perfect fit for the vertical based Coryell offense that Turner would prefer to run, and that the Bears scheme has worked best under strong armed passers like Erik Kramer, Rex Grossman (at least Good Rex), and now Jay Cutler. But Turner isn't a moron completely incapable of handling a quarterback like Kyle. Hell, he was able to adjust his scheme enough to allow the weak armed Steve Walsh to guide the Bears to the playoffs in 1994. It's just a system that traditionally works best when it has a downfield element, as exemplified by the original Coryell quarterback, Dan Fouts.

It's true that Orton is playing great in Denver, and I for one am happy for him. The problem is in ignoring the complexities of NFL offensive systems and also in paying too much attention to yardage and quarterback rating and not to scoring. The Bears under Cutler, for example, are scoring 26.2 ppg, good for 7th in the NFL, despite their 22nd overall ranking in yardage (which should improve anyways as the year goes on and one strong or weak performance won't represent a drastic rise and fall in the rankings, as the Bears' yardage numbers were hurt by consistently playing on a short field against Detroit...which is a good thing, but I digress). I'm not denying that Orton fits better in McDaniels' system, but Turner used him just fine, and has also been quite successful with his new quarterback as well. So once more, no, the Bears would Not be better with Orton, and no, it's not Ron Turner's fault.

As for Benson, well, his problems were less to do with schemes than with attitude, and I'm saving That article for next week's buildup to the Bengals.

NCAA Picks Week 7

The records for this week stand as such: Red is 20-10 after an impressive 8-2 week and I stand at 15-15 after an impressively mediocre 5-5 performance. After two weeks of disagreeing on 70% of the games we pick in the NCAA, we disagree on only 3 this week. On to the picks...

#5 Boise State @ Tulsa

Iggins!: Tulsa has a very good offense, and playing at home for only the 2^nd time this year will be an advantage, but Boise State should be in a bigger conference. Boise State wins.

Code Red: Not much of a problem here. Boise State Wins.

#8 Cincinnati @ #21 South Florida

Code Red: As much as I hate Iowa, I’m happy they’re 6-0, because right now they and Ohio State are the only teams keeping the Big Ten from being the Big East. Does ANYONE really buy Cincinnati as the 8^th best team in the country? Alas, they’re BCS bound. Cinci wins.

Iggins!: Why do you hate Cincinnati so much? They’re actually quite good. Be pissed off at TCU, not Cinci. Cincinnati wins.

#20 Oklahoma vs. #3 Texas (In Dallas)

Iggins!: I feel like this will be Texas’ one stumble this year. Oklahoma losing three games by the halfway point? The earth would break apart. Oklahoma wins.

Code Red: I’m with my comrade on this one. It’s not so much that I think Texas will stumble, but Bradford is back and Oklahoma just needs it more. Oklahoma wins.

#11 Iowa @ Wisconsin

Code Red: Mindless, god awfully stupid turnovers ruined Wisconsin’s chances against Ohio State. I’m sure that won’t play into Iowa’s hands. Not one bit. Sigh, Iowa wins an ugly one (as if they have any other kind).

Iggins!: Iowa wins everything ugly. And you’re right, at this point, 6 games in, you have to say that turnovers against Iowa aren’t a fluke; Iowa just hawks the ball (no pun intended). Iowa wins and then I start to hyperventilate because they have to go to MSU at night after this.

#6 USC @ #25 Notre Dame

Iggins!: Notre Dame has a very good offense and a pile of shit on defense. That being said, I think Notre Dame will stick with USC and pull out a close one in the end (because I made this pick 3 weeks ago and I am sticking with it, damnit). Notre Dame wins.

Code Red: A Haiku-

Fuckin Notre Dame

They coast on easy schedule

Good team they are not.

USC wins.

Texas Tech @ #15 Nebraska

Code Red: As much as I’d love to call the Texas Tech upset, Nebraska’s defense is just outstanding and they’re at home. Nebraska wins.

Iggins!: Well I don’t have a vagina, and my theory is that the Big 12 North is so superior to the South that even the 5^th best team in the North can beat the best in the South. Texas Tech wins.

#4 Virginia Tech @ #19 Georgia Tech

Iggins!: God I hate the triple option. Virginia Tech wins.

Code Red: The triple option is 14-5 since it moved to Georgia Tech. It works. Why my esteemed colleague must hate that it’s because some teams can actually do shit like run the triple option that makes college football great, I don’t know. Virginia Tech will win this game, because they’re an outstanding team with a fantastic defense, and then Iggins! will point this out as proof that the triple option sucks, to which I’ll point out that VT’s defense has had no problem shutting down spread offenses and the like as well, and he’ll deny all logic and evidence and I’ll be forced to jab a pair of scissors in his throat and laugh as the blood bubbles out and the wheezing sound of his last, forced breaths hits the air. Virginia Tech wins.

Iggins!: Hey, if you can hate Cincinnati for no reason I can hate Ga Tech for no reason.

Stanford @ Arizona

Code Red: Stanford will rebound from last week’s disappointment against Oregon State, but Arizona will not overcome their 4^th quarter collapse against Washington. Stanford wins.

Iggins!: Arizona got screwed hard and long last week on an interception returned for a TD that hit the ground. The Pac-10 has 6 quality teams. Very impressive. Arizona wins.

#22 South Carolina @ #2 Alabama

Iggins!: Alabama and Florida are far better than the rest of division 1. Alabama wins.

Code Red: I would throw Texas in there too, but that’s beside the point. Alabama wins.

Arkansas @ #1 Florida

Code Red: This could very well be a trap game. Tebow’s not 100% yet and the hangover from the LSU game could be considerable. Arkansas is downright dangerous with Ryan Mallett, who will be a top ten pick at quarterback whenever he comes out. Urban Meyer’s not the kind of coach that allows a letdown, however. Florida wins, but Mallett’s golden arm will give them a scare.

Iggins!: Florida is better than Arkansas. Florida wins.

Week 7 College Rankings

I'm not even going to bother with recaps this week, as nothing greatly surprising happened. Without further ado, here are the rankings-

#1 Florida- They did a good job of keeping Tebow from taking unnecessary abuse, since they realized they wouldn't need to score many points with their defense doing whatever it wanted to LSU.

#2 Texas- They get their first real challenge on Saturday against Oklahoma

#3 Alabama - They have tag teamed with South Carolina to incinerate Jevan Snead's draft stock. You may want to stay for senior year, kid.

#4 Boise State- Idle last week.

#5 Virginia Tech- They jumped over Ohio State for kicking Boston College's ass harder than Ohio State kicked Wisconsin's. It'll be an interesting match up for them this week as they draw the UNSTOPPABLE TRIPLE OPTION of Georgia Tech.

#6 Ohio State- All signs point to November 14th, in Columbus against Iowa, being one hell of a game.

#7 USC- They get Notre Dame this weekend, and that should either prove that the Washington game was a fluke, or continue to piss me off by allowing a not-really-that-good Notre Dame team to keep winning games.

#8 Oklahoma State- They're as shaky as it comes for a top ten team, but we'll see how they handle Texas in a few weeks.

#9 Cincinnati- Idle, and the Big East still sucks.

#10 Iowa- My esteemed colleague Iggins! seems to think Michigan State will be their biggest test, but I personally think the only thing standing between them and the BCS is Ohio State. And believe me, I f*&king hate that fact.

#11 TCU- They stay on track for BCS busting with a win over Air Force.

#12 Georgia Tech- The triple option made for one of the more exciting ACC games in years with its 49-44 win over Florida State. The game against Virginia Tech is definitely a must watch.

#13 Miami- Their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way.

#14 Penn State- A big win over Eastern Illinois means nothing, so..yeah.

#15 Oklahoma- It's a bit high for a 3-2 team, yes, but they're better than that. The game against Texas is a must-win.

#16 Oregon- They've fully recovered from the Boise State debacle, and the game against USC is looking like the Pac 10 game of the year.

#17 LSU- Their offense leaves much to be desired.

#18 Kansas- Todd Reesing is a man.

#19 Nebraska- Their defense is really good. The way they took over the fourth quarter against Mizzou was extremely impressive.

#20 BYU- I don't trust them, but they've played well since the anomaly of a loss to Florida State.

#21 South Carolina- This won't last. At all.

#22 Notre Dame- Neither will this.

#23 South Florida- Seriously, I'm just pulling shit out of my ass here. It's a bad year for competence.

#24 Central Michigan- I like their quarterback, Dan LeFevour (and so does Mel Kiper. I'm smarter than Mel, of course, but keep an eye on him come combine/draft time), and they're 5-1 with their only loss being a tough one to a pretty good Arizona team.

#25 Oregon State- Because they beat last week's number 25?

NFL Power Rankings

1. (4-0) New Orleans Saints

2. (5-0) Indianapolis Colts

3. (5-0) Minnesota Vikings

4. (5-0) New York Giants

5. (4-1) Cincinnati Bengals

6. (5-0) Denver Broncos

-These teams are unquestionably at the top of the league right now. I still think the Vikings and Broncos will fall quickly, but to this point you can't argue with undefeated records and the teams that Cincinnati has beaten. (and Cinci is above Denver because that was a goddamned fluke).

7. (3-1) Chicago Bears

8. (3-1) Atlanta Falcons

9. (3-2) New York Jets

10. (3-2) New England Patriots

11. (3-2) Baltimore Ravens

12. (3-1) Philadelphia Eagles

-Before I get ripped for being a homer consider the teams who you would put ahead of the Bears. Atlanta had a great win last week but they totally melted against a New England team who has lost twice already and has yet to look great in any game. The Ravens have had a couple of tough losses, but losing to New England means that, with the same record, they have to be below them. And the Eagles haven't proven shit yet, so I'm waiting for them to actually play a tough opponent and win.

13. (3-2) San Francisco 49ers

14. (3-2) Pittsburgh Steelers

15. (2-2) Arizona Cardinals

16. (2-2) San Diego Chargers

17. (2-3) Miami Dolphins

18. (3-2) Dallas Cowboys

19. (2-2) Green Bay Packers

-This is where things get tricky. The 49ers and Steelers are headed in opposite directions but I think the margin of loss against Atlanta was more fluky than the Steelers almost losing to everybody. The Cardinals and Chargers are pretty much the same team at this point. Mediocre even though they have loads of talent. The Dolphins have finally kicked it into gear, but I can't move them up higher at 2-3. The Cowboys and Packers are both good teams with bad parts that are going to cost them lots of games.

20. (2-3) Seattle Seahawks

21. (2-3) Jacksonville Jaguars

22. (2-3) Houston Texans

23. (1-3) Carolina Panthers

24. (2-3) Washington Redskins

25. (1-4) Detroit Lions

-These teams all have something in common. They suck, but they've managed to suck less than the bottom of the league. None of these guys will contend for anything.

26. (0-5) Tennessee Titans

27. (0-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

28. (0-5) Kansas City Chiefs

29. (1-4) Cleveland Browns

30. (1-4) Buffalo Bills

31. (1-4) Oakland Raiders

32. (0-5) St. Louis Rams

The Titans... oh the Titans. What the hell happened? Tampa Bay and Kansas City both have enough pieces to have a 7-9 season, so I don't think they belong with the bottom 4. Speaking of which, the Browns have managed to be ranked above 3 other teams, which says nothing about Cleveland and EVERYTHING about how godawful Buffalo, Oakland, and St. Louis are. I really think Oakland is the worst team in the NFL but until the Rams win, they get the bottom spot.

The UFL...Actually Not That Terrible.

The next Tommy Maddox?

If you were one of those people back in 2001 who, like me, were excited about the start of the XFL, you probably remember the crippling disappointment that came from the truly awful quality of play by everyone not named Tommy Maddox. The low scoring and ineptitude, in my opinion, contributed more to the downfall of that league than anything else. So, when I tuned into the UFL opener, with the Las Vegas Locomotives and the California Redwoods squaring off in Vegas, I was fully expecting more incompletions and god awful play than a Tuesday night game between Louisiana Lafayette and North Texas.

Instead, I was pleasantly surprised with how enjoyable the game, which Las Vegas won 30-17, actually was. Former 1st round pick and Bills quarterback JP Losman had a stellar game, going 21 of 31 for 226 yds, 2tds, and a 110.4 rating, and his counterpart, former University of Kentucky quarterback Shane Boyd, made some nice plays with his arm and his leg. It was also interesting to see some aging ex-NFLers like former Cardinals runningback Marcell Shipp and former Bears safety Tony Parrish get some playing time. Hell,the Las Vegas kicker even made a 53 yard field goal.

Honestly, I really think the UFL could achieve its stated goal of becoming a developmental league for the NFL. With former NFL coaches and a decent level of competition, the veterans and rookies that participate in the UFL have to be in better game shape by the end of their season in November than they would be coming in off the street. If an NFL team worn down by injuries needs a few players to fill out the roster for the stretch run, who's to say the UFL isn't the best place to find them? A guy like Losman, with NFL talent and a live arm, who has been in competitive shape, will probably make a better option for a team suffering from injuries or ineffectiveness at the quarterback position than a simple street free agent. I fully support the UFL, and I hope it lasts.

Week 5 NFL Picks

Onto the NFL Picks (also, God damn do I hate the bye week, oh well, at least I have the debut of UFL football tonight):

(0-4) Cleveland @ (1-3) Buffalo

Code Red: Buffalo. And please god throw TO the ball. My fantasy team NEEDS THIS.

Iggins!: Cleveland showed signs of a pulse last week, and the Bills are in meltdown mode, but I still can’t bring myself to pick Cleveland. Buffalo wins.

(2-2) Dallas @ (0-4) Kansas City

Iggins!: I’m way ahead of Red so far so I can go with my gut and pick the Chiefs here, which will result in the explosion of Jerry Jones like Ted on Heroes. Kansas City wins.

Code Red: Your gut has let you down sir. I suggest you punish it by eating a 1,000 Baconators. Dallas wins.

(4-0) Minnesota @ (0-4) St. Louis

Code Red: Yeah, St. Louis doesn’t stand a chance. Minnesota.

Iggins!: God I hate Minnesota, but there is no way they lose this game. Minnesota wins.

(1-3) Oakland @ (4-0) NY Giants

Iggins!: The Raiders are a disaster, and the fact that they won a game shocks and appalls me. NY Giants win.

Code Red: I actually spent most of my afternoon arguing whether JaMarcus Russell has a shot at supplanting Ryan Leaf as the greatest QB bust of all time. What does that tell you? Giants win.

(0-4) Tampa Bay @ (2-1) Philadelphia

Code Red: Eagles. Holy shit Tampa is awful. I used to think Jon Gruden was a terrible coach, but now I must commend him for getting 9 wins out of this franchise last year. Then I take away that commendation for the fellatio he performed on Favre during MNF. “OMG, Did I show you guys my Brett Favre practice footage from 1992?? I KNEW HIM WHEN!” Eagles Win.

Iggins!: That’s enough words spent on Tampa for the year. Eagles win.

(2-2) Pittsburgh @ (1-3) Detroit
Iggins!: The Lions look better than the bottom tier of the NFL. But not by THAT much. Pittsburgh wins.

Code Red: Someday the Lions will be good. Not this week, though. Pittsburgh wins.

(2-2) Washington @ (0-3) Carolina

Code Red: Carolina will win, because Williams and Stewart will rush against a weak Washington run defense, but Campbell will throw for plenty of yards, because all three of those events will benefit my fantasy team. Carolina.

Iggins!: I don’t think they’ll win for quite those reasons, but Washington is way worse than 2-2. Carolina wins.

(3-1) Cincinnati @ (3-1) Baltimore

Iggins!: The Bengals are good, but the Ravens defense won’t allow a comeback like they got against Pittsburgh, and it won’t let them dick around like they did against Cleveland. Ravens win.

Code Red: If the Ravens had won in New England, I’d have picked the Bengals for the upset win over the undefeated team. Alas, they did not, and the Ravens will be mad and at home. Ravens win.

(2-1) Atlanta @ (3-1) San Francisco

Code Red: This will be a good game, but Atlanta has the offense necessary to pull this one out. Falcons win, setting up an awesome Sunday Night game between two 3-1 teams when they meet the Bears on October 18th.

Iggins!: I am picking the Falcons to win because if they lose, the Bears won’t be able to beat a very angry and wounded Atlanta team in Atlanta. Falcons win.

(2-2) Jacksonville @ (1-3) Seattle

Iggins!: The most impressive thing about the Jaguars beating Tennessee is they barely ran the ball at all. Maybe they’ve turned a corner. Jacksonville wins.

Code Red: I don’t know that they’ve turned the corner. I think Tennessee just turned the corner from “good team off to a bad start” to “maybe just a bad team.” Still, I think the Seahawks aren’t very good either. Jacksonville wins.

(2-2) Houston @ (1-2) Arizona

Code Red: Oh good, two maddeningly inconsistent teams with high powered offense that can explode at any time. I guess Houston, just because that’s the team I Want to win?

Iggins!: I wish Houston would win, but their defense is terrible and Arizona is at home. Arizona wins.

(3-1) New England @ (4-0) Denver

Iggins!: Crap. Now I have to listen to some ESPN shlock about the master and the student. If Denver wins I have to acknowledge them, and I can’t have that, so New England wins.

Code Red: I’ve already acknowledged the Broncos as being a better team than I expected. But I expected 5-11. 8-8 or 9-7 seems about right. New England will be better than that. New England wins.

(4-0) Indianapolis @ (0-4) Tennessee

Code Red: Well this is easy. Colts win, Vince Young gets to play, and I can get even more evidence to crush Iggins! one time hope that he’d be a great NFL quarterback.

Iggins!: Tennessee really DOES suck. Huh. Colts win.

(3-1) NY Jets @ (1-3) Miami

Iggins!: That was a nice game for the Dolphins last week but it only proved that they’ve become one dimensional with Henne, and the Jets can take that away. NY Jets win.

Code Red: Henne and the university that shat him out both suck. Jets win.

Week 6 NCAA Picks

After last weekend's disaster I had fallen 5 games back of Iggins! in our combined NCAA and NFL predictions, but fortunately I was able to rebound with a 16-8 effort (9-5 NFL, 7-3 NCAA), which overcame Iggins! 14-10 ( NFL 10-4, 4-6 NCAA) week to cut my deficit to just three games. The combined standings after two weeks:

Iggins!: 31-18 (NFL 21-8, NCAA 10-10)
Code Red: 28-21 (NFL 16-13, NCAA 12-8)

Here are our NCAA picks for this week (NFL to come tomorrow):

#21 Nebraska @ #24 Missouri

Iggins!: Watching Big 12 North teams play each-other is a lot like watching Debbie Does Dallas. Even if you win, you’re still gonna get fucked by Texas. Missouri wins.

Code Red: Damn. That’s a good line. Damn fine line indeed. Mizzou is a good team, as is Nebraska, and they looked tough against Virginia Tech. I’m going to ahead and do this for argument’s sake. Nebraska wins.

#3 Alabama @ #20 Ole Miss

Code Red: Jevan Snead is an enigma. EDSBS uses the Favre comparison, I use the Grossman. Both SEC players, both were fairly inaccurate college passers, both agree that ball security is for women. He could go off on Alabama for 400 yds and 4 tds and I wouldn’t bat an eye, but I think Saban will manage to get to the gunslinger in him. Alabama wins.

Iggins!: I don’t believe you, Ole Miss. Alabama wins.

#13 Oregon @ UCLA

Iggins!: I have a feeling I’m going to wish I picked UCLA, but Oregon has been crushing teams left and right. Oregon wins.

Code Red: Oregon’s back with a vengeance. They’re just punching opponents left and right. Oregon wins.

#17 Auburn @ Arkansas

Code Red: Auburn is 5-0 and their offensive turnaround has been remarkable, but Arkansas and Ryan Mallet are ready to upset someone and are probably still smarting over the beatdown Alabama gave them a few weeks ago. Arkansas wins.

Iggins!: Auburn is legitimately good which makes you wonder; since Gene Chizik is enjoying this much success at Auburn and he failed miserably at Iowa State, does that mean Iowa State is the worst program in the nation right now, all things considered? Auburn wins.

Stanford @ Oregon State

Iggins!: Interesting fact, Oregon State is unbeaten on the road, and 1-2 at home. I love Harbaugh but I don’t think they can make OSU 1-3 at home. Oregon State wins.

Code Red: Argument’s sake. Stanford.

#10 TCU @ Air Force

Iggins!: TCU should be nowhere near #10, and unfortunately they only play one ranked team this year (BYU) so nobody will know until bowl season. Unless Air Force takes this one. Air Force wins.

Code Red: Good luck with that. TCU wins.

#1 Florida @ #4 LSU

Code Red: If Tebow were 100% this one’s an easy call. But it looks like Jeff Brantley will get the start. Hmm. Logic says go with LSU. I’ll stick with Florida.

Iggins!: I still don’t think LSU is great, and they would have lost if not for perhaps the worst excessive celebration call ever. Florida is one of only 3 teams in the nation who deserves a shot at the title under any circumstance. Florida wins.

Michigan @ #12 Iowa

Iggins!: Michigan finally paid for starting slow and coming back late last week, and the close call against Arkansas State means nothing: at this point Iowa is 2002 OSU. They almost lose every game but just keep on winning. The real problem game is at Michigan State a couple weeks down the road. Iowa wins.

Code Red: I’m not seeing anyone on Iowa’s offense as dynamic as Maurice Clarrett. I hate to pick against Iowa, because they typically burn me, and I’m really convinced they are a great team, but I feel like if they’re going to lose one, it’ll either be here or against Ohio State. I’ll go ahead and start here. Michigan Wins.

#22 Georgia Tech @ Florida State

Code Red: Florida State could rally around their embattled coach, help salvage his legacy and come out firing in order to defeat the triple option. It won’t though. Georgia Tech Wins.

Iggins!: An ACC team is ranked in the 20s and is playing away from home at an unranked ACC team who isn’t Duke? I take Florida State.

Arizona @ Washington

Iggins!: Washington has taken some tough losses (LSU, @Stanford, @Notre Dame) so it’s hard to tell if the USC game was a fluke just yet. I think this will prove it. Arizona wins.

Code Red: Iggins! only wants Arizona to win in order to justify Iowa’s win over Arizona as legitimate. Washington Wins.

College Football Rankings, Week 6.

Just like last week I'm not going to do a recap of every game involving the Top 25, especially since half of them were idle, but here's just a few of the games that surprised me-

#9 USC 30, #25 Cal 3
Holy shit, Cal. I had you picked to win the Pac 10 and you've been outscored 72-6 the last two weeks by the two teams you needed to beat to do it. Farewell from my rankings.

Michigan State 26, #21 Michigan 20
Michigan State proves that it will forever remain an inexplicably erratic and dangerous football team.

UTEP 58, #22 Houston 41
The same UTEP that just got destroyed 64-7 by Texas tore up the Houston team that had torn up Oklahoma State. Chaos, I would say, except this leads to less chaos by eliminating the chance of Houston being a BCS buster.

#7 LSU 20, Georgia 13
I OWNED YOUR SHIT, IGGINS!

#24 Miami 21, #5 Oklahoma 20
EXCEPT HERE.

Anywho, onto the new rankings-

#1 Florida (-) No change for the Idle, but there's a very good chance they'll be without Tebow against LSU, which could make that game very, very interesting.
#2 Texas (-) Also Idle.
#3 Alabama (-) They whomped on Kentucky, but that doesn't mean what it meant two years ago.
#4 Boise State (-) A win over UC Davis keeps them on track for BCS bustin'
#5 LSU (+2) WHAT? WHAT NOW MOTHER F*&KER?
#6 Ohio State (-) On they roll to a Big Ten title and a disheartening BCS loss.
#7 Virginia Tech (+1) Meh, it was natural for them to come out a little slow against Duke after last week's big win over Miami.
#8 USC (+1) Officially back on track. They take on Oregon on Halloween. I'll be watching.
#9 Oklahoma State (+1) Idle.
#10 Cincinnati (+1) Sigh, I kept the Big East out of the top ten as long as I could.
#11 TCU (+3) Moved up three spaces for an awesome mascot and a 39-14 drubbing of SMU.
#12 Iowa (+3) Don't be fooled by the mere 3 point win over lowly Arkansas State. Kirk Ferentz is just doing what he does best- Sucking the life out of every football game he touches. You think people enjoy watching Iowa football? Even Iggins!? No, they don't. They watch in agonized pain as their team eliminates the very concept of offense and then slugs it out with whoever's on the other side. Its slow, its painful, and god f&%king damnit, it works. Plus I wanted to move them above Penn State.
#13 Georgia Tech (+3) INSULT THE TRIPLE OPTION AGAIN, IGGINS! WATCH AS IT CRUSHES ALL WHO OPPOSE IT (Except for Miami...and most likely Virginia Tech)
#14 Miami (+10) This is a comfortable spot for them after an impressive win against Oklahoma.
#15 Penn State (-3) Dropped three places due to the Hate Clause after they raped Illinois while I was there to witness it live. Thanks for ruining Juice William's career, guys. (Kidding of course, Ron Zook is solely to blame for that).
#16 Oklahoma (-11) Sam Bradford's soon to return, and maybe in time to save their BCS chances, although their national championship hopes are now out the window.
#17 Ole Miss (-4) I dropped them four spots because A) Jevan Snead (or as I call him, Baby Rex), threw 3 interceptions (and 3 tds) against Vandy, and because putting them at #13 last week was a total accident. Honestly, I thought I had them at #17.
#18 Oregon (-) No change, since 52-3 against Washington State should just be expected.
#19 Kansas (-) Idle.
#20 Nebraska (-) Idle.
#21 Missouri (+2) Idle.
#22 Auburn (NR) They're 5-0, which is very surprising. They're also scoring 41.4 ppg, astonishing given last year's average of 17.3 ppg. Welcome to the Top 25.
#23 BYU (NR) They've rebounded with two straight wins after the Florida State debacle, but the true test will be their game against TCU on October 24th.
#24 South Florida (NR) Why the hell not? You try filling out a Top 25. It's slim pickins', and I'm not buying into Notre Dame.
#25 Stanford (NR) Jim Harbaugh's get it for being 4-1 and because I love Jim Harbaugh.

Time to Talk About the Patron Saint..

Thank you, Kissing Suzy Kolber. Thank you so much.

On April 2nd, the day Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton switched teams, I said the following:

"In all honesty, Jay Cutler is probably as talented as a quarterback gets. Kyle most certainly is not. Cutler has the arm strength and mobility that Kyle will never have. While Jay's maturity is no doubt in question, this was the right move for the Bears. I hope Kyle finds a niche for himself in Denver. I'm sure with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal catching his passes he'll probably put up great numbers, and hell, if Josh McDaniel's offense could make Matt Cassel look good, I'm sure Kyle will look like Steve Young."

I really meant that at the time. Over the summer the constant Bronco fan bashing of Cutler and the few meathead Bears fans who insist on comparing the two after every pass drove me to the point where I just wanted the Broncos to lose. I apologize for this. Kyle Orton is still our hero, and it's time I go back to being the bigger man and coming out and saying:

Go Broncos. I hate Josh McDaniels and his godawful smarmy, snarky little face. But his system works, and it is the PERFECT system for Kyle. Any meathead moron who thinks that Cutler and Orton's numbers would be the same as they are if they were still on the same teams they were last year is a moron. The Coryell offense that Turner runs thrives on having a strong armed passer. McDaniel's offense works with a quarterback who can manage the short and intermediate passing game without making mistakes. Kyle's done that so far, with a 97. 7 rating, and as I said before, if that hack Matt Cassell can do it, Kyle can too. Yes, the lucky pass to Stokely has inflated those numbers, but one stat doesn't lie- 0 interceptions on 117 attempts. Even without the Stokely fluke he'd have a 91.8 rating.

The Broncos defense is actually legitimate thanks to upgrading with Brian Dawkins and rookie Robert Ayers and the addition of Mike Nolan, and while the Broncos will struggle to score points at time, they have the same recipe that helped the Bears win when Orton was at the helm. Next week against the Patriots will be a tough test, as Orton still struggles to get the ball to his receivers (he was just 7-16 when targeting wideouts, and 13-13 when targeting backs or tight ends), and Belichick knows that offense well enough to know what to take away. If Orton and the Broncos make it through that, everyone should be impressed.

I don't need to succumb to flame wars with Broncos or Bears meatheads who'll come screaming everytime Cutler throws an interception. Cutler is 3-1 and giving Chicago everything we hoped he'd give them. Orton is 4-0 (though yes, he should be 3-1) and he's shutting up the Broncos fans who acted like he was the world's worst quarterback.

Kyle, forgive me. I still love you. Sometimes both teams win a trade.

Awful Secondary+Great Pass Rush+Run Game??+Johnny Knox=24 Point Blowout?

I like the killer instinct, Walleye, but Tommie is on Your team. Heel, heel!

The good from yesterday's game:

-Matt Forte. Thom Brennaman will go on a rant about how "deceiving" his stats were yesterday, but who the hell cares? The fact that he gained 98 yards on 2 carries and 23 yards on the other 10 doesn't somehow make the 98 yards not count. They both led to touchdowns for the offense. Give me a runningback worth 14 points a game and I'll take it every time.

-The offensive line. I'll go ahead and put you big fellas in the positive for once. They opened up two holes to spring Forte, and that was enough. Cutler had plenty of time to pass, although his accuracy was a bit off and the receivers struggled to get open downfield once Hester went out. The two sacks the line did give up were coverage sacks, so I'll let them slip the blame.

-Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and the punt/kickoff return teams- Holy shit, nice job. The blocking was absolutely outstanding, and even with Hester out the team gained 277 total return yards. That's outstanding. Shirtless man hugs for all.

-Jay Cutler. He was off a bit yesterday, and I think he'd tell you that. But he was mistake free and made the big play when it counted, with two touchdown passes (why hasn't anyone figured out the play action pass to Olsen in the endzone on 4th and goal? The Bears have scored like 1,000 touchdowns on that play since 2005. Hell, of Orton's 9 touchdown passes his rookie year, half of them were probably that exact play to either Desmond Clark or Marc Edwards). Also impressive, as the game recap on Chicago Bears.com points out, Cutler is the first Bears quarterback since the NFL merger in 1970 to post a rating of 100 or more in three straight games. Of course, the website is wrong, because he's the second, since Jim McMahon did it in 1984. My point being, of course, that I know everything, and Jay Cutler is really fucking good.

-The defensive line, and, by extension, Rod Marinelli. If anyone needed proof of how important Marinelli has become to this year's team, note the first half of yesterday's game. The defensive line struggled to pressure Stafford as he was sacked only once in the first half, and he ripped the secondary a new one, going 14-23 for 221 yds and a TD. In the second half the team went ballistic and sacked Stafford 4 times and held him to 10-13 for 75 yards before knocking him out of the game. Hell, Tommie Harris even registered an interception. The defensive line play has been nothing short of outstanding this year, and it's the one thing other than Lance Briggs that's keeping this defense respectable.

-Robbie Gould- way to drill your first career 50+ yard field goal, buddy. We're all proud of you.

The Bad-

-The secondary. Guh. From Afalava jumping offsides to give Detroit second life after the defense had held them to a field goal to Calvin Johnson just doing whatever the hell he felt like doing out there until he'd racked up 133 yards receiving, this was just an awful performance by the secondary, and there's not much else to say. Continue to pray that Marinelli manages to figure out how to rush the passer every week or it'll just be a repeat of last year's defense all over again.

-Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick. Those guys just annoyed the shit out of me, and I don't think I was alone. From the always renowned and revered Desipio.com-

"The announcers are our old pal tHom Brennaman and the always full of himself Brian Billick. The windows are off their press box booth to accommodate both egos. Not that they aren’t deserved. Billick has won a Super Bowl as a head coach, Brennaman has…um…well, his daddy got him a broadcasting job.

Billick says the Bears are “deficient” in the linebacking corps, then says, “I don’t mean deficient, I just mean they don’t have a lot of starters there.” No, you meant deficient."

The list goes on and on, but there were also frequent references to Billick's refusal to pronounce the r in Pettigrew, and the "l" in familiarity.

Either way, it was nice to the Bears come out in the second half and play like the superior team. The bye week comes at the perfect time with Hester and Knox dinged up, Forte battling a sore knee, Tinoisamoa and Hillenmeyer on their way back from injuries, Desmond Clark still dealing with a broken rib, Alex Brown still fighting an ankle injury, Charles Tillman's pride deeply wounded by Calvin Johnson, and Jay Cutler's back hurting from carrying the offense against Pittsburgh and Seattle. Everyone should be nice and healed up in time to take down the Falcons in Atlanta.

Go Bears.