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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

For the Record: Week 1 Review and Packer Hate Edition


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EXCELSIOR



Iggins!
So let's start this shit with the Bears. How fantastic was that? It was exactly as we envisioned, right? The pass game opened up the run game, Forte looked explosive, Bush looked great, Marshall dominated, and once Cutler settled down he spread the ball out nicely. Plus we now have TWO wide receivers who will catch the ball in double coverage and maybe even three considering how fiery Earl looked. We haven't had ONE of those for... I can't remember. Have we had one of those? The defense gave up a Donald Brown TD, but otherwise looked stout. And Jennings really stepped up.

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Yeah. That was incredible. I try very hard to stifle the tiny voice of meatball pessimism in me (the one that’s currently whispering “but the Packerrrrrzzz neverss starts 0s-n-2sssszes. How we hatesss themmsss”), but I’d gotten used to the Bears responding to preseason hype with awful, awful debuts. Like the Cutler opener in 2009. That was the kind of dickpunch I almost half expected, and it opened up like that. I was seconds away from expecting Marshall to tear his hammy and the Bears starting Sanzenbacher by week 3.

Except, they recovered. That whole game plan really shows why Mike Martz should get punched in the mouth. They ran the ball effectively, threw short to get the passing game going, then went deep off of play action and with the tight end staying in to block. The result? A more effective deep passing game than Martz ever managed despite all of his attempts to force it.

God I love Alshon Jeffery. Marshall was everything he’s proven himself to be over his career. Earl was wide open on 3rd down because that’s just what he does. They used Devin effectively as well. The defense looked fine. It was 34-14 and they’d allowed less than 200 total yards when they called off the dogs and pulled Urlacher, Briggs, and Peppers (with Tillman already out). So we know if the Bears lose all four Pro Bowlers from last year they’ll give up meaningless yards. Who cares? Tim Jennings is a good ballplayer. So is Kelvin Hayden. I hope Tillman’s ready to go Thursday, because I’ll feel more confident with those three and DJ Moore matched up on Green Bay’s guys than I’ve felt in a while.

Prognostication Bukakke NCAA Week 3.

#1 Alabama @ Arkansas
Iggins!: It would be the most John L. Smith thing in the world to beat Alabama after losing to Louisiana-Monroe, but Tyler Wilson may be out of this one. Alabama wins.

Code Red: Last season I lost the progkakke because I picked against Nick Saban. I did it again in week one, and suffered once more. Never. Again. Alabama wins.
 
Mrs. Code Red: Alabama. Roll tide. 
 
North Carolina @ #19 Louisville
Code Red: Hmm. Louisville is ranked? This is a tough call. UNC just lost to Wake. Louisville is an overachiever with a mediocre offense. I choose UNC.

Iggins!: Good, we disagree on something this week! Shouldn’t that UNC just lost to Wake be a bright red, flashing deterrent? Because if Louisville is an overachiever with a mediocre offense, what does that make Wake Forest? You need to stop this UNC obsession while you’re still able. Louisville wins.

Mrs. Code Red: North...Carolina? I don't know. I tend to take state schools when I know nothing about either school, because, hey, they've got more money, right?

#18 Florida @ #23 Tennessee
Iggins!: Oh joy. Two ranked teams who should not be ranked. Take the home team? Tennessee wins.

Code Red: Fuck, I don’t know. Honor bound, still. Florida, I guess. 
 
Mrs. Code Red: Florida's been sucking lately, right? Tennessee.

Code Red: Only for about three years now. 
 
Arizona State @ Missouri
Code Red: That Arizona State offense was very impressive against Illinois, who did, for what it’s worth, have the #7 defense in the country last year. But they’re traveling east for this one, and Missouri’s offense is also explosive. Mizzou wins. 
 
Iggins!: Yup, just as disastrous as a B1G team heading west is a Pac-12 team heading east. Mizzou takes it.

Mrs. Code Red: Mizzou.

#2 USC @ #21 Stanford
Iggins!: USC has looked a little shaky. I’d imagine this game gets them back on track. USC wins.

Code Red: They’ve looked sort of like a #1 team that’s not coached by Nick Saban, that’ll dick around with shitty teams because they know they don’t have to work. I’d assume they’ll right the ship in conference play. USC wins. 
 
Mrs. Code Red: USC.

#20 Notre Dame @ #10 Michigan State
Code Red: Oh great. This fucking game. I never pick it right. I guess Notre Dame because they’re more experienced? Enjoy your win now, MSU.

Iggins!: Your picks seem unusually risk-takey this week? I thought we were going to agree on everything! I’ve got Michigan State by a lot.

Mrs. Code Red: Michigan State.

#25 BYU @ Utah
Iggins!: Utah got upset last week by Utah State. I don’t see a team as talented as Utah losing to their two in-state rivals two weeks in a row. Utah wins.

Code Red: But they just lost their quarterback. I mean, Jordan Wynn injured his shoulder so many times he just quit. I have to take BYU here.
 
Iggins!: Are we acting like losing Jordan Wynn is an issue here? Utah always plays without Jordan Wynn! I imagine having him on the field at this point just confuses them.

Mrs. Code Red: BYU.

Utah State @ Wisconsin
Code Red: God the Big Ten is so awful. I can’t see Wisconsin losing two in a row, though. Badgers win, still fucked. 

Iggins!: This Utah State team is tricky. They pulled a lot of near-upsets last year and I like Chuckie Keeton. Plus Wisconsin sucked against NIU, then got beaten by Oregon State. I’ll risk it and take Utah State to win.

Mrs. Code Red: Wisconsin. 
 
Virginia @ Georgia Tech
Iggins!: Were it not for one of the worst performances by an NCAA kicker ever, Virginia would have lost to Penn State. That’s enough for me to say Georgia Tech wins.

Code Red: This is true. Georgia Tech. 
 
Mrs. Code Red: Georgia Tech.

Wake Forest @ #5 Florida State
Code Red: UNC is one thing, Wake. This is a whole different animal. Florida State wins. 
 
Iggins!: Wake was the team that first reminded the country that FSU was still FSU last year. I’ll take FSU to win but this is a tricky game.

Mrs. Code Red: Florida State.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Prognostication Bukakke, NFL Week 2

Prognostication Bukakke Standings:

After one week, I am back where I belong. Standing atop Iggins! in the prognostication bukakke standings. Sure, it's just one game, but it is the sign of things to come. The standings:

NCAA
Code Red: 5-5
Iggins!: 5-5
Mrs. Code Red: 4-6

NFL
Code Red: 9-7
Iggins!: 8-8
Mrs. Code Red: 8-8

Overall
Code Red: 14-12
Iggins!: 13-13
Mrs. Code Red: 12-14

The Picks:

Bears @ Packers
Code Red: There's no reason to believe the Bears can't win this game. Their defense is clearly better at this point. Their offense is no longer outgunned, and they in fact have a considerable advantage if you factor in the superiority of their run game. Rodgers and desperation are not to be underestimated, but this game should belong to Cutler & Company. Bears 38-24.

Iggins!: The Bears certainly demonstrated that they are the superior team here. They have a similarly-powered passing attack, a far superior run game, and a better defense. Bears 45-28

Mrs. Code Red: Bears 27-24.

Buccaneers @ Giants
Iggins!: The Bucs won last week by being fundamentally sound. It was one of the most boring and structured things I have ever seen on a Sunday. The good part, for me, is that I have Doug Martin, and they run their entire offense through him. The bad part, for them, is that the Giants have a great defense and are pissed off. Giants win.

Code Red: Indeed. I feel the Bucs win last week bodes more ill for Carolina than it does good for Tampa. Giants win.

Mrs. Code Red: Giants.

Browns @ Bengals
Code Red: Brandon Weeden had the worst debut for a rookie quarterback since 1960. That's serious suck, since most rookies fail epically at the start. The Bengals played better than the final score against the Ravens, since that game turned late on Dalton's pick six. Bengals win.

Iggins!: Eh, the Bengals fell apart worse than that, even worse than the Chiefs, but it won’t matter against the worst team in the league. Bengals win.

Mrs. Code Red: Bengals.


Raiders @ Dolphins
Iggins!: Ugh. This is going to be a game filled with suck. The Raiders seemed to move the ball well last week, and their defense looked solid, but miscue after miscue doomed them. I can’t imagine Tannehill winning this game. Raiders win.

Code Red: The Raiders will not make the playoffs, but if Palmer and McFadden stay healthy there will be 2-3 games where they wake the fuck up and upset people big time. This game won’t be an upset, though. Raiders win.

Mrs. Code Red: Raiders.

Chiefs @ Bills
Code Red: Both of these teams got the shit kicked out of them, but at least Kansas City was competitive for one half. I've now lost all faith in the Bills. Or would have, if I'd ever had any? Chiefs win.

Iggins!: The Chiefs looked competent for a while against Atlanta. Their defense should tighten up and perform better than they did last week. And the Bills are terrible. Chiefs win.

Mrs. Code Red: Bills.

Ravens @ Eagles
Code Red: The Ravens looked incredibly impressive. The Eagles looked like shit against the Browns. I'll take the Ravens, but I expect Cam Cameron to throw too damn often against a stout Eagles secondary and ignore Ray Rice until Michael Vick gives the Ravens enough opportunities to win that Cameron finally takes one. Ravens win.

Iggins!: Based on simple observation I have to go with the Ravens here. Ravens win.

Mrs. Code Red: Ravens.

Vikings @ Colts
Iggins!: Both of these teams looked fairly competent last week, but not spectacular. I’ll give the nod to the Vikings because they’ll run Purple Jesus all over the Colts. Vikings win.

Code Red: I’ll take Andrew Luck. Just a feeling. Colts win.

Mrs. Code Red: Colts.

Cardinals @ Patriots
Code Red: Kevin Kolb saved the day! Won't matter at all against the Patriots, though. Pats win.

Iggins!: Won’t be close. Patriots win.
Mrs. Code Red: Patriots.

Texans @ Jaguars
Iggins!: So the Texans get two FCS schools to start their schedule? Texans win.

Code Red: Their schedule’s pretty soft until they have to face the Bears and Packers. That is good, because they deserve a smooth road to a second chance after the playoffs after Matt Schaub’s injury crippled a Superbowl contender last year. Texans win.

Mrs. Code Red: Texans.

Saints @ Panthers
Code Red: This could go either way. I feel like the Panthers didn't really upgrade their defense at all (they drafted a LB, the one position on defense they Didn't need), so Brees could have a field day. On the other hand, the Saints couldn't even dream of stopping RGIII when the Skins used the zone read, which Cam Newton has absolutely NO experience running. Nope. Definitely unlikely that Panthers will have any success running the ball with their QB. Coin flip. Saints win in a high scorer.

Iggins!: People mistakenly believed that the Panthers would be a dark horse this season. But they didn’t change anything. Cam Newton STILL can’t do everything, guys. Saints win.

Mrs. Code Red: Saints.

Redskins @ Rams
Iggins!: Watching the zone-read in the NFL is strange but also pleasant. RG3 ran it like a master last week, and the Rams almost beating Detroit was more an indictment of Detroit than a proclamation for St. Louis. RG3 wins.

Code Red: What he said. RG3 wins and Redskin fans lose all sense of perspective. RETURN TO GLOREEEE COOCH!

Mrs. Code Red: Redskins.

Cowboys @ Seahawks
Code Red: I expect Tony Romo to make a few horrible passes against that fairly stout secondary, but there's no way the Seahawks can hang in this one for four quarters. Cowboys win.

Iggins!: It would be a very Romo thing to do to lose to the Seahawks after beating the Giants, but I have to take Dallas to win.

Mrs. Code Red: Cowboys.

Titans @ Chargers
Iggins!: The Chargers looked pretty bad while beating the Raiders. Were it not for three botched punts, 1200 penalties on Tommy Kelly, and the golden foot of Nate Kaeding, the Bolts would have lost. On the other hand, the Titans have a second year QB and a terrible running back. Chargers win, go 2-0, people get excited, then they start losing A LOT.

Code Red: I don’t think the Chargers looked that bad. Their defense looked considerably better than last year, at least. They’ll have enough to beat a severely injured Jake Locker. Chargers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Chargers.

Jets @ Steelers
Code Red: The whole “Tebow inspired Mark Sanchez to not suck!” bit will end abruptly when he regresses back to Rico Mirerez against the Steelers. Steelers win.

Iggins!: What did I tell you about the whole “whoever wins, someone is overreacting” thing? The Jets should get brought right back to earth here. Steelers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Steelers.

Lions @ 49ers
Iggins!: The Lions and especially Matt Stafford showed their true colors Sunday. The 49ers should tear these guys to pieces. 49ers win.

Code Red: Courtland Finnegan was pretty damning when he said “we know what Matthew Stafford likes to do, so we just took it away.” He’s a pretty one dimensional quarterback. Imagine what a defense as good as the 49ers can do if the Rams provided the blueprint.

Mrs. Code Red: 49ers.

Broncos @ Falcons
Code Red: Peyton Manning was Peyton Manning, and that's good enough for me. The Falcons were impressive on offense, but I'll not ignore that they allowed Matt Cassell to put them on their heels for most of the first half, and they just lost their best cornerback in Brent Grimes. Broncos win.

Iggins!: I really feel a Peyton Manning come-back-to-earth moment here, but all your points have convinced me. Broncos win.

Mrs. Code Red: Broncos.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Bears 41, Colts 21

Admit it, you were worried. Jay was 1-10 for 13 yards and a pick six. The offensive line had a sack and penalty on the first drive. It was all going to go horribly awry. We've seen this movie before! Every time they tell us the shiny toy will change things it just blows up in our faces.

Except... maybe not. Maybe these Bears are different. Because after that Jay Cutler was 20 of 25 for 320 yards and two TDs. Two glorious TDs to his shiny new toys, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. New acquisition Michael Bush threw in two more, and, hey, Matt Forte's still here, and he's still awesome.

Maybe these Bears can score some points. Maybe these Bears are pretty good.

The breakdown;

THE GOOD:

The Offensive Line: I want to single these guys out, because the Bears were hammered all offseason long for their faith in the guys they had. Things looked ugly early, with a sack and penalty on the first drive, but they spent the rest of the game providing Cutler with the kinds of clean pockets he has rarely seen in Chicago, and he responded. They gave up just 1 sack the rest of the way and paved the way for 114 yards rushing and 3 rushing TDs from Bush and Forte. All told, the offense finished with 425 yards of offense and 41 pts, largely due to the guys up front. Let's hope this keeps up.

Jay Cutler: I've never seen Jay Cutler look as awful as he did on those first ten throws. Nor have I seen him look quite as dominant as he did afterward. The result? A final line of 20/35 (60%) for 333 yds (9.5 YPA)  2 TDs, 1 INT, and a sparkly 98.9 rating. His old rapport with Brandon Marshall clearly hadn't missed a step, and I can't remember anything in my life more beautiful than that laser 42 yard toss to Alshon Jeffery. Jay is back, people, and he may be better than ever.

Two-Headed RB Monster: Forte and Bush combined for 28 carries for 122 yds (4.4)  and 3 TDs, and the Bears actually converted multiple times on short yardage. So. Much. Talent.

Brandon Marshall: Is this...is this what a wide receiver does? 9 receptions for 119 yards and a TD? Cutler hit Marshall repeatedly on slants, posts, comebacks, and one gorgeous back shoulder toss. Marshall created space and got open in the red zone for the Bears second TD of the game, and it's obvious that Cutler trusts him implicitly. He pulled in catch after catch despite double and even triple teams, and it's obvious that the attention he generated opened things up for Jeffery and the others. It was nice to have Cutler and Marshall justify the hype right away. Now they can just go play football.

Alshon Jeffery: For a guy who is supposedly fat and slow, Alshon sure got down quick on his 3 catches. He had a couple of nice catch and runs and then, well, you saw it, and it. was. awesome. He finished with 3 catches for 80 yards and TD.

Earl Bennett: The BBE threw in 3 receptions for 50 yards, all of them for first downs, two of them on third down, because he's a stone cold mother fucker. For the whole, the Bears wide receivers combined for 17 of Cutler's 21 completions for 276 yards, making it the most productive day for the Bears perimeter players since...maybe ever?

Henry Melton: The entire defensive line was disruptive all day, from Shea McClellin announcing his presence with an excellent hurry on 3rd down early in the game, to Julius Peppers making yet another awesome fumble recovery, to limiting the Colts to just 63 yards rushing (even Corey Wootton had his second career sack!), but Henry Melton stood out all day. He had 2 sacks late in the game after he'd keyed the entire defensive line for much of the afternoon. If HenMel can take advantage of lining up right next to Peppers and be the young Tommie Harris that he has the potential to be, look out.

Tim Jennings: After Tillman went out (God I hope he's ready to go for Green Bay), Jennings stepped up in a big way with 2 interceptions and a tipped ball that Conte picked off in the end zone. He was solid in coverage all day and really answered Lovie's challenge to generate more turnovers. Nice job, Tim. For the record, Kelvin Hayden played very well and may not be DOOM if he has to play in GB.

Brian Urlacher: He wasn't a huge factor, but, in the best of both worlds scenario, he played And the Bears were up big enough to pull him out early. Hope he knocked the rust off for Thursday.

THE BAD:

1st Quarter Offense: It never happened. Never. Happened.

Andrew Luck: The kid will be fine, and he held up well despite constant pressure, but I know I'm going to hear people fellate him (and Bears meatballs panic) over the 300 yards he put up, mostly after the Bears were up 34-14 and pulled Urlacher, Peppers, and Briggs. He threw 3 picks and mostly gained garbage time yardage. He looked completely ineffective before the Bears called off the dogs. Let's not crown his ass yet. Now RGIII....

Charles Tillman Leaving the Game: That's never good. Please let it be minor.

 THE UGLY:

Nothing. Football is back, the Bears won big, and that offense is unlike anything we've ever had the privilege to watch. Life is good, man.

Go Bears. Hate Week begins....NOW.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Prognostication Bukakke, NCAA Week 2

The schedule is still fairly light this early in the season, so none of these are earth shattering matchups. That said, tradition demands we start them both the same week, so here are the college picks:

Also, the Mrs., who still hates college football, had this to say before her picks:  "Here are my selections. I don't feel like giving any sort of explanation for them, so I won't. Maybe next week."

Miami (FL) @ #22 Kansas State
Iggins!: K-State looked about as blah as you possibly can in a 51-9 win (35 of those 51 points came in the fourth quarter), but there’s absolutely no way Miami wins this here. Their team is in disarray, has a new QB, is just waiting for a massive NCAA sanction hammer, and is from the ACC. K-State wins.

Code Red: Miami is a disaster and I just don’t know how they’re going to get out of it. I also don’t care. K-State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Kansas State.

#19 Oklahoma State @ Arizona
Code Red: Okay. 84 points is impressive regardless of opponent. OK State reloads fast, generally. They can handle an inexperienced AZ squad. OK State.

Iggins!: Richrod put up 600 yards of offense last week. And scored 17 points. What the hell? Oklahoma State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: OK State.

Auburn @ Mississippi State
Iggins!: Jesus, you pronounce Kiehl like Kyle? That name is ridiculous. Auburn put up a solid fight against Clemson. Of course, Clemson didn’t have Sammy Watkins, and Andre Ellington demolished them on the ground. Auburn is not good. Gene Chizik is not good. Mississippi State wins.

Code Red: I always feel uncomfortable picking Miss. State to win a game that may require them to score at least 10 points. I will do so anyway. MSU wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Auburn.

North Carolina @ Wake Forest
Code Red: Damn you, week 2. These games suck. I’ll take UNC because I think that’s what I did when we predicted this division. UNC. They have a QB I’ve heard of.

Iggins!: I believe you did, and I picked Wake here. I’m not a UNC believer this season, and I WANT to believe in Wake. That is foolish, because they are Wake Forest, but what the hell? Wake Forest wins.

Mrs. Code Red: UNC.

#1 USC @ Syracuse
Iggins!: They say this is a neutral field, but since they’re playing in New York I’m going to go ahead and say this is a home game for ‘Cuse. Impressive comeback by the Orange last week, but in the end it fell short just like Syracuse seems to have done since McNabb left. USC destroys.

Code Red: USC murders everything in sight.

Mrs. Code Red: USC
Iowa State at Iowa
Code Red: Iowa State won last year. They looked more impressive last week. Iowa may not be very good at all. I thoroughly enjoy when Iowa State beats Iowa. But they’re in Kinnick and this is clearly just a trap. Iowa wins.

Iggins!: So scared. So very, very scared. Iowa has retooled their defense for just such an occasion as this. They’re good against running QBs who run the spread now, and worse against the offenses they traditionally dominate (pro-style). So in Kinnick, yeah, Iowa should get this win here easily. But their red zone offense was atrocious last week, Greg Davis is a moron who has no idea how to call passes downfield, and Iowa ran Damon Bullock like he was Shonn fucking Greene. If Iowa lost last year, they should lose this year, but fuck it. I’m not picking Iowa State to beat Iowa in Iowa City. PLEASE GOD WIN HAWKEYES.

Mrs. Code Red: Iowa.

#23 Florida @ Texas A&M
Iggins!: Somehow, Florida is ranked. God I hate these polls. Driskel won the starting job last week by… going 10/16 for 116 yards and a TD against Bowling Green. Huh. At least the Florida run game looked solid. Texas A&M got hurricaned out of their opener last week, so they get to debut at home against the Gators. So long as the A&M run game can move the ball on the Florida defense the Aggies should get the win here at home.

Code Red: Yeah…the ranked Florida think is a bit premature. I don’t even think they’re going to win but I picked them for some reason before the season so I’m honor bound. Florida wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Texas A&M

#12 Wisconsin @ Oregon State
Code Red:
Also seems like it could be a trap, since that’s a tough road trip and my heart tells me Oregon State’s not as bad as it has been the last two years. Still, I’m going to assume UNI’s comeback rid Wisconsin of their complacency. Wisconsin wins.

Iggins!: UNI is a good team, and they tend to put up a great fight against BCS conference opponents, plus Wisconsin tends to almost lose to a terrible team in their non-conference schedule every year. They should mop the floor with OSU. Wisconsin wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Oregon State

Code Red: Jesus. I wish she'd given an explanation for that one, at least.

#17 Nebraska @ UCLA
Iggins!: UCLA had three extra points blocked last week. They also let Rice run all over them for the first two quarters before tightening up in the second half. I’m not sure this whole “Taylor Martinez Passing Effectively” thing is going to continue, but even if it doesn’t Nebraska should own UCLA’s shit. Nebraska wins.

Code Red: I’m riding Nebraska because that’s what I do, but there’s no way in hell Taylor Martinez will keep passing like that. Nebraska wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Nebraska.

Illinois @ Arizona State
Code Red: Illinois did nothing last week to show me they were anything more than the great defensive team with a weak offense that they were last year. That team would lose in Arizona because Big Ten teams always do, so I’ll take AZ State.

Iggins!: Big Ten team in the desert? Instafail, especially considering Illinois’ shortcomings. AZ State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: AZ State.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Prognostication Bukakke 2012: NFL Week One

It's back! Praise be to Jebus, football is back. As is the prognostication bukakke. Last year Iggins! won for the first time in our three years of competition. The wife finished just a few games back of second. Unfortunately, she now understands football and is no longer the blank slate control in this experiment. Oh well. We'll see if Iggins! and I can avoid the shame of losing to a girl in predictions and in fantasy football (she is our reigning league champion).

To the picking!

Cowboys @ Giants
Code Red: Is there anything that's more of a sure bet than Tony Romo losing to the Giants in a primetime game? Giants.

Iggins!: The Cowboys and Chargers have followed a similar path. The last 4 years both have been huge preseason favorites to win stuff because their rosters look great, then they’ve fallen on their face one creative way after the other. At least it seems (some) people are avoiding that pitfall this year. Giants win.

Mrs. Code Red: Superbowl? Giants.

Falcons @ Chiefs
Iggins!: So yeah, one time Red and I went to a Cubs game against the Royals in KC (the stadium is literally fifty feet from Arrowhead) and my wife looked at Arrowhead, paused, and decided she would be a Chiefs fan. I chuckled, but then she went home, memorized the players, positions, part of the team’s history, and requested tickets to a game. So the Chiefs made my wife enjoy football. I am slanted towards them, but I think we have to admit at this point that the Chiefs are extremely talented everywhere but at QB. Sadly, that position matters a hell of a lot, but at home, in the opener, I’ll take the Chiefs to win this one 17-14 or something because the Falcons are the Chargers two years ago. They’re always RIGHT ON THE CUSP. But they aren’t.

Code Red: That's touching. So, so touching. They have a solid core. They're hardly “extremely talented” everywhere but QB. The Falcons will win.

Mrs. Code Red: Falcons.

Eagles @ Browns
Code Red: I'm sure the Eagles may find a way to make this look tougher than it should be. Eagles win.

Iggins!: Rookierookierookie and a #1 wide receiver who wouldn’t be a number 3 most anywhere else? I would laugh so hard if the Eagles lost this. Eagles win.

Mrs. Code Red: Eagles.

Redskins @ Saints
Iggins!: People seem to think the absence of Payton somehow hurts the Saints? THEY’RE THE SAME TEAM. Vilma isn’t even that good anymore. Saints win.

Code Red: They signed Curtis Lofton, who is both younger and better than Vilma anyways. Saints win.

Mrs. Code Red: Saints.

Rams @ Lions
Code Red: Oof. Calvin Johnson running loose in the Rams secondary. That's going to get ugly fast. Sam Bradford against the Lions defensive line? Looks like his shoulder injury may come early this year. Lions win.

Iggins!: Development is a tricky thing to predict. The Rams had a godawful year last season, but they have an acceptable core of young guys. My steal of the draft was Isaiah Pead, and my prediction was that he would be… Steven Jackson. Huh. If I were to highlight any game as being a potential shocker in week 1, this would be it, but I’m taking Megatron. Lions win.

Mrs. Code Red: I don't want to say the Lions, but come on. Lions win.

Patriots @ Titans
Iggins!: Hm. You know, I actually really like the Titans this year. CJ2K should get a small bit of his mojo back, Locker seems acceptable, and Britt+Washington is a pretty good receiver combo if they both stay on the field. That said, I can’t pick against the hoodie in game 1. Pats win.

Code Red: I actually really like the Titans to go 8-8 this year. Pats win.

Mrs. Code Red: Patriots. Rob Gronkowski.

Code Red: Yes dear, we get it.

Dolphins @ Texans
Code Red: Well, Tannehill should have a joyous first start. Texans win.

Iggins!: Total annihilation. Texans win.

Mrs. Code Red: Texans.

Mrs. Code Red:
Bills @ Jets
Iggins!: Ah jesus, no matter what happens in this game, ESPN is overreacting about it. Bills win, because Sanchez.

Code Red: I have a hard time picking the Bills in this game, but, damn the Jets are a mess. Bills win.

Mrs. Code Red: Bills.

Jaguars @ Vikings
Code Red: Tough call here. Both of these team's have this game circled as one of the few games they could win this year. I'll roll with the only good unit out of the four in this contest, the Jags defense. Jaguars win.

Iggins!: The Jags do have a good defense, but I expect Ponder to be further along the development conga line than Gabbert, and in order to win games you need the pointz. Vikings win.

Mrs. Code Red: Eww..God..Vikings?

Colts @ Bears
Code Red: I'm sure the Bears will win 28-9, but they'll allow Andrew Luck to look very poised as he tosses a bunch of short completions for no points and meatballs will curse Charles Tillman. The Colts are better, but the Bears are one of the most improved teams in the NFL and were playoff bound last year before doom struck. It all begins here. Bears win.

Iggins!: How are the Colts better? People keep saying that! I disagree. Luck threw some swell five yard passes this preseason when nobody cared. How nice for him! Different beast here. The game’ll be over by halftime. Bears win, 45-6

Mrs. Code Red: Bears 27-10. Duh.

Panthers @ Buccaneers
Iggins!: Don’t trust Schiano, Freeman, Vincent Jackson, or any of the mediocre players the Bucs overpaid this offseason. All you can be sure of is an RB is going to get the ball a lot and Cam is going run rampant. Panthers win.

Code Red: Says the Doug Martin fantasy owner. Don't trust any Buc, period. Panthers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Panthers.

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Code Red: Oh, Jesus. Coin flip says the Cardinals.

Iggins!: Haha, no. No, no, no. Seahawks win.

Code Red: Iggins! Is back in midseason form. Taking shots at Andrew Luck for throwing 5 yard passes in the preseason (Luck averaged 7.9 YPA and 12.7 YPC, btw) while apparently chugging Russell Wilson dong so hard he can dismiss the possibility that the rookie might lose his first start on the road with a wanking motion. He may be right, he may be wrong, but the important thing is he's emphatic.

Mr.s Code Red: I'll go with the Seahawks because they're my fantasy defense?

49ers @ Packers
Iggins!: Holy crap, how is this game not one of the Monday nighters? Thus begins the hard fall back to reality for the Niners. Packers win.

Code Red: Not sure. Fox must have protected it somehow. I want so badly to believe the 49ers will stun the Packers, but I don't buy Alex Smith outscoring Rodgers even against that shitty Packers D. Packers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Sigh. Packers. Least this way we can all enjoy it if the 49ers do win.

Steelers @ Broncos
Code Red: I'm aware that the Steelers got Tebow'd in their last meeting, and now the Broncos have Manning, but I'm not going to just hand him a win against one of the league's elite in his first appearance in two years. Steelers win.

Iggins!: Ryan Clark can’t play in Denver. That is not good. The Steeler defense is on decline and the Bronco defense is on the rise. I’ll take the Broncos to win, everyone to proclaim Peyton as Jesus, then for him to fail miserably the next week for no reason.

Code Red: I don't buy for one goddamn second that the Broncos defense is on the rise. They have Von Miller and that's it. DJ Williams is suspended. Dawkins retired. Champ is old. Elvis Dumervil is only terrifying as a 3-4 OLB and they're back in a 4-3. Humbug.

Mrs. Code Red: I'm going to go with the Broncos. I want Peyton to do well. I think?

Bengals @ Ravens
Iggins!: The Bengals have a nice team, but the Ravens are on a different level still. Ravens dominate.

Code Red: I think the Bengals will take a step back this year win-wise, while having more talent. Their schedule was sooooooft last year. Then Bengals fans will hate Marvin Lewis even more and he still won't get fired and they'll bounce back to another first round playoff exit next year before going 4-12 again after that, because life as Bengals fan is purgatory on Earth. You want hell on Earth you go to Cleveland. Ravens win.

Mrs. Code Red: I just have a thing for Andy Dalton. Bengals. Why not?

Chargers @ Oakland
Code Red: For some reason I never get tired of Oakland's horrifying performances in their yearly prime time double-header opener. It warms the heart to begin the season with Raiders fail. Then again, the Chargers are fantastic at losing games like this. Tough call. Chargers win.

Iggins!: Without Mathews the Bolts are basically running out a ragtag group of mercenaries at RB, Malcom Floyd as their #1 WR, and a nearly decrepit Antonio Gates at tight end. I just… can’t… pick them. Raiders win.

Mrs. Code Red: Chargers. They're my AFC team.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Your Bears 53 Man Roster: The Defense and ST

DE's: #90 Julius Peppers, #71 Israel Idonije, #99 Shea McClellin, #98 Corey Wootton, #95 Cheta Ozougwu
It's difficult to say which unit needs to improve more this year between the offensive line and defensive line. Julius Peppers, of course, needs only to stay healthy and match his usual production, but the others all have tons of potential and plenty of questions. Izzy is still solid against the run, but can he pass rush like he did in 2010? Can Shea McClellin be enough of a presence on third down and in passing situations to justify his draft slot? Can Corey Wootton stay healthy and be something other than the man who ended Brett Favre's career? Can Cheta Ozougwu be more than just an awesome name and keep himself on the roster all year?

I still like this unit's potential. The Idonije/McClellin combo will provide more than enough spark to improve on last year's production and for once provide the numbers you'd expect from the bookend to Julius Peppers. Wootton needs only to develop into a guy who can spell Peppers for 5-6 plays a game. Cheta has an awesome name.

DTs: #69 Henry Melton, #92 Stephen Paea, #75 Matt Toeiana, #91 Amobi Okoye, 
The Bears usually keep 9 defensive linemen, and this year is no exception, although it's surprising to see them go with just four DTs. It helps that Idonije, Melton, and Okoye all have experience playing both inside and out.

Melton was spectacular last year at times, as he finished with seven sacks, which was just a half sack behind Geno Atkins and Tommy Kelly for most by a DT in the NFL. He also disappeared for several games, however, so the important thing for him this year is finding consistency in his second full year on the interior of the line. The Bears were extremely fortunate that Greg Schiano's tough guy routine apparently led to him cutting a player who missed all of the preseason even though he was on pace to play in week one, so now they get Amobi, an extremely valuable backup three technique who contributed four sacks in part time duty, for a bargain bin price once again.

Paea had a great camp and was named the starter before he suffered an ankle injury that's seemingly taking forever to heal. If he can ever put it all together and stay in the lineup his skillset makes him the rare 4-3 nose tackle who has quickness to go along with his ability to draw double teams. He'll vastly upgrade the line if he's healthy, but they may end up with another season of solid-but-boring Matt Toeiana.

SLBs: #53 Nick Roach, #58  Geno Hayes
Nick Roach has quietly been a pretty solid player at the most unappreciated position on the Bears defense. For a guy who mostly slams himself into fullbacks in order to give Urlacher and Briggs room to make plays, he does pretty well. He's not a liability in coverage and he can play some MLB.

Geno Hayes was a solid signing. He's got a great deal of starting experience at WLB in Tampa Bay, but he can back up either OLB spot and has looked solid at SLB in the preseason.

MLBs: #54 Brian Urlacher, #52 Blake Costanzo
Urlacher's obviously the biggest question mark right now (he practiced on Monday solely because Telander made sure Emery was on to his ruse), but even if his knee is an issue you can still expect him to be one of the better middle linebackers in the game. In many ways his ability to get other people in position is even more valuable than his physical ability at this point.

Costanzo is a special teams ace and actually looked half-decent at MLB in the preseason. If Urlacher can't go Roach will get first crack, but it may not be DOOM if Costanzo has to play a game or so.

WLBs: #55 Lance Briggs, #97 JT Thomas, #59 Patrick Trahan
Lance Briggs is awesome, and just got a contract extension that he'll wait at least three games to bitch about.

JT Thomas seemed destined for the waiver wire after a year off with an injury and an offseason arrest, but he made plays in camp and during the preseason and now gets a shot to make an impact on special teams. It would be nice if they've managed to find one decent developmental linebacker. Trahan's a special teamer and nothing more.

CB: #33 Charles Tillman, #26 Tim Jennings, #30 DJ Moore, #24 Kelvin Hayden, #27 Sherrick McManis
P'Nut had a bad preseason game and it naturally brought the idiots who still don't understand zone coverage and ignore the fact that he MADE THE GODDAMN PRO BOWL last year. He's the very definition of a prototypical Cover 2 corner and hopefully has several years of ball-punching awesomeness left.

Tim Jennings was actually better than Tillman in coverage (THAT'S A COMPLIMENT YOU TILLMAN-HATING MORONS) last year but hasn't forced as many turnovers as he should. He held onto his job but will be in trouble the next time he fails to hang onto another dropped interception.

DJ Moore is an awesome nickelback and his best feature is that he's irritating as shit. Try to watch the wide receivers that DJ covers sometime. They can't fucking stand him.

Kelvin Hayden seems to be healthy, and that's good, because he's got the most experience of all four main corners on the outside and at the slot. He's great depth and may just force his way into the lineup regardless of how well Jennings plays.

Sherrick McManus was a surprise addition to the roster after he was traded by the Texans for Tyler Clutts. There's little in the way of stats or film for him, so the only thing we know about him is that the Bears apparently liked his potential on special teams better than Josh Wilhite, Isaiah Frey, or Greg McCoy.

FSs: #47 Chris Conte, #37 Anthony Walters, #46 Jeremy Jones
Sure, the safety position has plagued the Bears for nearly a decade, but at least they addressed that in the draft by taking Brandon Hard--oh fuck. He's on injured reserve already?

Okay. The situation at safety scares the piss out of all of us, and with good reason. Last year the Bears five game winning streak coincided with the pairing of Major Wright and Chris Conte at safety. Unfortunately, both of those players are made of glass and are still largely unproven. So we will sweat it out if any one goes down.

For what it's worth, I think Conte's a pretty good player who should make more plays on the ball this year. Anthony Walters is a hard hitter who hasn't gotten many reps on defense, but doesn't inspire much confidence. Who the hell is Jeremy Jones?

SSs: #21 Major Wright, #20 Craig Steltz
Major Wright is, as far as I can tell, made entirely of wet newspaper and he tears everything at the slightest misstep. He's also a feast or famine player in coverage, as he had three huge interceptions during the winning streak last year but also got badly burned in the loss at New Orleans. At best, his hold on the job is tenuous since, God in heaven, Craig Steltz was actually the most effective safety on the team last year. Guh.

Let's just hope that Wright and Conte stay healthy and don't just let Calvin Johnson roam free behind them. That's all.

Special Teams:

K: #9 Robbie Gould
No discussion required. Moving on..

P: #8 Adam Podlesh, #1 Ryan Quigley
Podlesh is out for a little while with a hip injury, which sucks, because he had the best season by a punter in franchise history (presented without sarcasm. I swear). Quigley will hopefully be on the roster for no more than a week or two, at which point he'll  be cut and I would assume someone like Brian Price or the suspended Nate Collins may make their way back on the roster. Or Josh McCown, which would make less sense.

LS: #65 Patrick Mannelly
Is it wrong to be this emotionally attached to a long snapper? Patrick Mannelly has been the Bears long snapper since I was in 3rd grade. I will be sad someday when he is gone.

That's it. Those are the 53 men who will charge onto the field on Sunday. Well, 45 of them will. Actually it'll be less than that since several that dress won't play. Then there's always the backup quarterback who you hope won't pla...what was I saying? There are roster moves to come in the future of course, since Podlesh is coming back at some point, Nate Collins is only suspended for one game, and Johnny Knox has six weeks to work his way back into playing shape before the Bears have to decide whether or not to shelve him all year.

In all, I'd say you can list QB, RB, TE, WR, LB, and CB as strengths. The OL and the DL will hopefully be much improved, and the safeties will hopefully just avoid doing really stupid shit (see Meriweather, Brandon). For the whole, this is appears to be the most talented team of the Lovie Era, and thus since the 1980s, at least. Hopefully that's enough. We'll find out starting Sunday.

Go Bears.

Your Bears 53 Man Roster: The Offense

HOLY SHIT PEOPLE. IT IS GAME WEEK. Really! We got a bit of college football to whet the ol' appetite (and I tell you as an Illinois fan, there's nothing like watching Nathan Scheelhaase's noodle arm to get you excited for Jay Cutler) this awesome Labor Day weekend, and now we get Bears football. Hell, they're even throwing us a game on Wednesday this year because THEY KNOW YOU NEED THIS. The new season of the Prognostication Bukakke should be up soon (in case we're too slow to have it up by tomorrow, all three of us have chosen the Giants).

All of that out of the way, it's time to break down the Bears 53 man roster and predict awesome career years for everyone:

QBs: #6 Jay Cutler, #2 Jason Campbell
I love that the Bears, now rid of Martz and his constant desire for a project QB, have decided to go with 2 QBs. There's no reason to waste a roster spot on "We're Fucked if this Guy is Playing Anyway." I'm betting Josh McCown will be available again. If not, Donovan McNabb will be. No one will care at that point anyway.

As for the two guys who are still here, well, Jay Cutler's improved every year as a Bear and there's no reason not to think that this won't be his best year yet. Jason Campbell is already the best backup quarterback in Bears history (and probably would be in the top ten of starting QBs). This part of the roster is definitely as strong as it has ever been.

HBs: #22 Matt Forte, #29 Michael Bush, #38 Lorenzo Booker
One of the things I love about Phil Emery so far is that everything he's done has made so much damn sense. So much scary, un-Bearslike sense. He signed Kahlil Bell to a decent contract and brought in Michael Bush in order to squeeze Forte. When Forte signed, he deemed Bell superfluous and dumped his high price tag for a cheaper player who adds more value on special teams. That's just the kind of shit Jerry Angelo would never have thought of.

This is a strong unit as well. Forte and Bush are both well-rounded backs who can run, block, and catch. Bush is (hopefully) the answer to the never-ending search for a quality short yardage back. Booker's been dynamic on returns and can probably add the occasional change of pace. Again, it's hard to remember any time when the Bears had so much talent AND depth at all three major offensive skill units.

FB: #88 Evan Rodriguez.
I wasn't surprised to see the Bears get rid of the overrated Tyler Clutts. Rodriguez is listed as a FB but is much more of an H-Back, a confusing hybrid that the Bears haven't ever really employed but really isn't much of a fullback at all. He'll shift around a bit and will mostly be used as a receiver, while Davis and Spaeth do most of the in-line blocking. Rodriguez is very intriguing. If he's over the personal issues that plagued him in college and develops his blocking, he'll be  a very valuable asset in the passing game.

TEs: #87 Kellen Davis, #89 Matt Spaeth, #86 Kyle Adams
With Clutts getting tossed and Rodriguez listed as a FB, Kyle Adams gets to stay on as a third tight end. Good for him, as he's a nice blocker and has actually flashed a mild amount of receiving ability this preseason.

Davis is a great blocker (no pressures or sacks allowed the last 11 weeks of last season) and has great athleticism. I think he'll probably haul in around 30-40 balls for about 500 yards this season, although he may see his targets diminish in favor of Rodriguez. Matt Spaeth is just a loveable red zone blocker and nothing else.

WRs: #15 Brandon Marshall, #23 Devin Hester, #17 Alshon Jeffery, #80 Earl Bennett, #14 Eric Weems, #18 Dane Sanzenbacher
So my long-awaited Sanzenbacher cut day has been delayed. Curiously, the Bears placed Johnny Knox on the PUP rather than IR, so Sanzenbacher may only get a six week reprieve. Either way it hardly matters since the Bears sixth wide receiver will hopefully never take the field on offense.

Marshall is obviously the number one wide receiver that's been missing since...forever. Hester will be a starter in name only, as his reps at this point are nearly equal with Alshon between the 20s and Alshon will get nearly all of the red zone work. Before long even the formality will give way. Earl Bennett is healthy, and is actually now in an offense where he can simply be the slot receiver. That's a good thing. Eric Weems can return kicks and may catch 10 balls this year if Hester gets the flu again. This, again, is the deepest receiving corps in Bears history.

OTs: #73 J'Marcus Webb, #72 Gabe Carimi, #74 Chris Williams
Not surprisingly, Webb won the left tackle competition that he was clearly supposed to win. I still don't hate him quite as much as I probably should. He's still a guy with a ton of talent who made the long jump up from Division II and who has basically had two rookie seasons, one at right tackle and one at left tackle. He'll also be less exposed this year, which is good. I don't really understand moving Chris Williams back to LT if he wasn't really going to win the job. He's still got a lot of potential and doesn't make much sense on the bench. They either never should have moved him to left guard or they should have left him there.

Carimi performed well in preseason and hasn't had any trouble with his recovery, so hopefully he's set to man the right side for a long time, as he's the biggest key to the offensive line's improvement this year. I was also happy to see that they got James Brown through waivers and onto the practice squad, as he's got the potential to develop into the swing tackle role when Williams moves on.

OGs: #67 Chris Spencer, #60 Lance Louis, #70 Edwin Williams, #62 Chilo Rachal
This is actually a pretty solid unit in the interior of the offensive line. Spencer and Edwin Williams allowed just 2 sacks total between the two of them last year. Lance Louis got manhandled at times at RT, but he's only allowed 1 sack when he's starting at guard the last two years. He's also a mauler in the run game. Chilo Rachal is a great run blocker who may work his way into the lineup if he fixes his footwork in pass protection. The tackles are still a question mark, but the guards are deep and solid, if not necessarily spectacular.

C: #63 Roberto Garza
Roberto is getting up there, but it's hard not to be impressed with how well he handled the move back to center last year. He certainly made fewer errors than his overrated predecessor, and he earned the small extension that he got. That said, should he falter, Edwin Williams is waiting in the wings.

That's it for now. I'll post the defense when I have time. Go Bears.


Thursday, August 30, 2012

College Previewkakke: BCS Predictions and JESUS FOOTBALL TONIGHT

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So here we are, my friends. Both at the end of this series of college football previews and at the end of the worst sports drought all year: the football offseason. Tonight, South Carolina plays at Vanderbilt. Tonight, Mike Leach makes his return against a bunch of mormons. Tonight, my friends, there is football.

So here you go, Red and mine's predictions for the BCS bowl games:

Orange Bowl:

Iggins!: Clemson vs. USF
Code Red: Virginia Tech vs. Shitty Big East Champion

-Thank you for the specifics, Red. The only difference here is in our predicted ACC Champs.

Fiesta Bowl:

Iggins!: West Virginia vs. Wisconsin
Code Red: Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

-So we have the B1G #2 in this game vs... well, Red picked West Virginia to win the Big 12 but then put them in a bowl game as an at large. WAFFLER.

Sugar:

Iggins!: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Code Red: LSU vs. West Virginia

-Once again, I contend Red is a flip-flopper. SEC Championship Game loser vs. Big 12 #2 here.

Rose Bowl:

Iggins!: Michigan State vs. USC
Code Red: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

-B1G Champ vs. Pac 12 #2 in the Rose it looks like. All of these pairings seem too likely. Hopefully Louisiana Tech goes 12-0 and screws this thing up.

National Title Game:

Iggins!: LSU vs. Oregon
Code Red: Georgia vs. USC

-And we both agree that the SEC champ will face the Pac 12 champ in the title game.


Well, that's it boys and girls. Football starts tonight; our national crisis has ended. I'm gonna go cook some bratwurst and yell at my TV until it starts.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Rick Telander is the Dumbest Man Alive

It's concerning to all Bears fans that Brian Urlacher may not be ready for the season opener. It's possible a knee injury may slow him down all season long. No one, however, has just suggested in any way even the slightest possibility that Urlacher may miss all off the season. That doesn't stop Rick Telander, however, from somehow deciding that the Bears may (and probably should) cut Brian fucking Urlacher. I don't even know where to begin. As usual, he's in italics, I am not.

He didn’t play.

Telander is correct. Brian Urlacher did not play in the Bears most recent preseason game. This is the last factual and sensible thing you'll see in this article.

And the question is: Can he play?

No, Rick. The question is when he will play. Which nearly everyone with any degree of medical knowledge agrees will be sometime within the next month at the latest. I mean the guy was practicing and running around at traning camp less than a few weeks ago. I don't think the surgery somehow made things Worse.

Brian Urlacher may be the heart of the Bears, but if the pump in the middle of the machine is busted, you either fix it or get a new one.

Or if that heart happens to be a future hall of famer with a swollen knee who just had an operation to fix said knee and is projected to be back soon, maybe you just duct tape that shit and wait for the part to get back in operation. You don't chuck him overboard because he may miss some regular season time for just the second time in his 12 year career.

Nick Roach filled in for Urlacher at middle linebacker against the New York Giants — doing what he has been doing this preseason — and was . . . OK.
 
One play stood out early on. It was a sweep that Giants running back David Wilson took around left end for 15 yards. Roach was blocked to the ground on the play.
 
Then, early in the second quarter, Roach broke up a pass from Eli Manning to running back Henry Hynoski, and the Giants were forced to punt. Nice job.

Acceptable backup starter played like acceptable backup starter. Thanks, Rick.

But is this what it’s come down to: Nick Roach for Brian Urlacher? Six-one, 234 pounds for 6-4, 258? Good for superior? Steady for Hall of Fame?
 
What has what come down to? No one but you is trying to make this a decision. Nick Roach is just there until Urlacher gets back. Everyone else but you says he's coming back.  This isn't a choice. This is just a temporary solution, you moron.

Sure, you can say such speculation is premature. Urlacher just needs more time to rehab his injured left knee. He’ll be fine by the season opener, 14 days from now, at Soldier Field against the Indianapolis Colts.

Premature was't the word I had in mind. Asinine? Paranoid? Attention-whoring headline from a hack writer desperate for material? Damn. That's more than one word.

That’s what Urlacher has been saying. That’s what coach Lovie Smith has been saying. That’s what teammates have been saying.
But how do they know?

Probably beacuse they see him daily. Or have access to his medical records. Or to the doctors who've operated on him and given a timetable. You know, people who have actual information as opposed to shit-brained columnists trying to make a stir by playing on the paranoid fears of meatball fans.

They don’t.

You don't know that. You have absolutely no evidence to support this idea that Urlacher is concealing evidence that he'll be unable to play this year. God, I hate you.

And here’s the thing. The Bears have to decide no more than 13 days from now — the Saturday before that opener — if Urlacher is all that he’s supposed to be, all that he once was, or at least a good-enough replica of his eight-time Pro Bowl self that he can hold down his expensive spot in the middle.

That Saturday, Sept. 8, is the last day the Bears could release Urlacher and be off the hook for his $7.5 million 2012 salary. Keep him until Sunday and they owe him everything.

Or you know, whether to decide on starting him week one or waiting until week two. That feels like a far cry from deciding whether or not to toss the best Bears player of the last twenty years beacuse his knee injury might force them to play Nick Roach for a couple of games.

You could say, what’s the harm in just keeping the guy, no matter what? He’s been a great leader, a great representative at the position the Bears are known for, middle linebacker, the position of Bill George, Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary?

Or, instead of keeping him as a symbolic gesture they keep him because the idea that he'll be unable to start all season goes against all of the information they've been given by medical professionals and Urlacher himself, rather than, say...you?

And you would have a point.

Thank you. You do not.

But $7.5 million is a lot of cap space. It’s money that can’t go to free agents. It’s money that can’t be used to tie up quarterback Jay Cutler for more years.

It's money they're committed to for just this year. I don't think there are any free agents out there in fucking August that they're going to need 7.5 mildo of cap room to spend on. I also know that Cutler's contract runs through 2013 and an extension would start next year, not this year, so that has absolutely no bearing on the situation. Let's just make shit up at this point, Rick.

People, this is a bottom-line business. If the 34-year-old Urlacher can’t regain his speed and sideline-to-sideline range and his drop-back quickness, he becomes a very nostalgia-laden, shiny-headed cheerleader.

Fair point. But there's no reason to believe, until we see him on the field, and again, EVERY OTHER PERSON WITH ACTUAL INFORMATION SAYS WE WILL, that he can't. He made the goddamn Pro Bowl last year. Cutting him for a slowly-healing knee sprain would be epically stupid even for an organization that had an ironclad grip on worst personnel decisions in their division until Matt Millen bumbled in.

All the secrecy and irritability emanating from questions about Urlacher’s healing knee have made Halas Hall seem like more of a closed camp than usual.

There's no secrecy involved. The irritability comes from conversations like this:

Rick Telander: Will Urlacher be ready for the opener?

Lovie Smith: We hope so. The doctors told us that was a realistic timetable. Nick Roach had a scope done in 2010 and came back in 2 weeks, so there's precedent. This was a minor operation and Brian had been taking part in practice before it happened.

Rick Telander: So you're saying you have no idea whether or not Urlacher will be available at all this season and you're considering cutting him?

Lovie Smith: What the fuck is wrong with you? 

Rick Telander: *eats paste*

Smith is halfway in love with Urlacher, and releasing him would be akin to taking his favorite dog and shooing it off a cliff. Indeed, the very thought of it ending like this for Urlacher in Chicago is painful.

 
Or cutting the best player on his defense over the last decade because he might miss one, or even two games. The thought of Urlacher's career ending like this is not only painful, but horrifying, as it would mean the front office was run by a bunch of panicked, ill-informed idiots who piss in the face of reliable medical information.


But how is that knee?


We don’t know. 


He's right. The only logical answer is that it can only be horrible and irreperable and we must get rid of him. You didn't come to that conclusion? Would you like to try some of this paste?


The best answer is, not good. Eight months of rehab for a bad sprain? A secret trip overseas to — maybe or maybe not — get blood-cell therapy? Arthroscopic debridement surgery two weeks ago?


Okay. The mysterious trip to Germany is odd, I'll grant you that, but Kobe supposedly had the same operation and missed no time. There's nothing to suggest that that would slow his rehabilitation. And calling a scope by it's full name to make it sound more terrifying doesn't actually make it anything more than the routine operation that football players have all of the time and return from in a matter of weeks. This, again, is a Telander scare tactic.


And then, what, the guy is supposed to come back with barely any team practice and no game time-ups and lead the way?


Barely any team practice? He participated in the first two weeks of camp. He had a full offseason of rehab and workouts. Only Rick Telander would assume that Brian Fucking Urlacher would fall completely out of shape and forget the defense he's played in for nine years in a matter of weeks.


Urlacher will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, which means he could go anywhere he wants for whatever he could wrangle. And he could just continue rehabbing and take his Bears millions this season.


Yes, Urlacher has just one year left on his deal, meaning the team can easily part with him with no hard feelings should he be unable to fully return from his injury this year. That's a good thing. He may come back completely fine within the next few weeks and sign a team friendly extension to end his career in the right place. Instead, just cut him now because they need that money for....well, nothing. Surely they need the roster spot! Oh, they can IR him whenever they want if this should somehow turn into a season ending injury? Only Telander's scenario would result in bad blood and horrible press for the Bears, so of course he, the guy who would be quickest to pounce on them if they followed his own advice, wants them to do it.

Oh, and of course Urlacher would just rehab and swindle money from the Bears so he can focus on his next contract. It's always a good idea to miss an entire season in order to boost your stock in free agency.


Yes, he wants to play. And, yes, he came back from that serious wrist injury three years ago — the one we thought might ruin him — and has been a rock. Indeed, except for that 2009 season, Urlacher has started 96 straight games over seven years.


Always good to throw in points that completely contradict your agument, folks. Take notes.

But so what?


What about this convenient note that completely contradicts my "Brian Urlacher is fragile and used up" narrative? I should never have even put it in here!"


Bottom line, baby.


The bottom line? You mean like the salary cap completely unaffected by money already committed to
Urlacher?


In fact, this is a poker hand combined with high-stakes chicken. 


Over here you’ve got Urlacher. Over there you’ve got first-year general manager Phil Emery.


Urlacher’s good at bluffing. Rookie Emery, well, what do you think?
  
I think Emery probably pays Urlacher's doctor, and knows the actual status of his knee. Only Telander assumes that Urlacher can just say "knee's fine!" and the Bears won't ask to see his medical records or an MRI or anything that would validate or invalidate what he says.


Would you have the stones for your signature move to be releasing the greatest Bears linebacker of the last quarter-century? Would you be soft enough to keep him if he’s done? While realizing nobody will know if you’re right, either way, for months or years?
 
Or you could just keep him on the roster and find out, since, again, the 7.5 million he's owed has never factored in their plans nor would it. In fact, the floor is now set at 90% of the cap, so the Bears would arguably have to overpay someone else to make up the money from cutting Urlacher. Brilliant!


Imagine No. 54 retiring. Imagine him starring again for the Bears. Imagine him as a Green Bay Packer. Gag at the thought.
 
Where? What? How?


But anything’s possible when your cards are down and nobody knows what’s in the hole.


I'm willing to bet the Bears know what's going on. The only person here who seems to belong in a dark, miserable hole from which no one should ever emerge is you, Rick. Please, stop playing doctor or writing.

Your 2012 SKO Quarterback Rankings: 21-32

21. Josh Freeman: Oh, what a precipitous fall. It turns out people should have looked at how many potential interceptions Freeman had dropped in 2010 (according to Pro Football Focus, at least 10), and how incredibly weak the Buccaneers schedule that year was. Freeman got into the "elite" category on many lists last year because of his inflated 25:6 ratio that year, since the rest of his stats (61.4%, 3451 yds, 215 YPG, 7.3 YPA) ranged from average to slightly-above average. Last year Freeman had the season he probably should have had the year before, making incremental improvements with his accuracy and total yardage while still turning the ball over a ton (16:22 ratio). While the luster has come off, I still wouldn't give up on Freeman. He's still an impressive player, talent-wise, and he was a project coming out of Kansas State to begin with. His aberration of a 2010 season led us to assume he was a year ahead of schedule, but he could still get there.

22. Carson Palmer: This may be overrating Carson Palmer a bit. Do you have ANY IDEA how much it hurts me to say that it's generous to claim Carson Palmer as the 22nd best passer in the NFL? It's painful. Goddamn, I loved Carson Palmer. Remember this, young athletes, at any given moment Kim Von Oelhoefen or a torn rotator cuff can drop you from the top of the world to the Oakland Raiders real quick. Be grateful for your beautiful armcocks while they're still spitting hot fire before your biggest fans refuse to watch your games because it's too damn depressing to see yet another deep ball die hopelessly in midair like a Russian airliner, when you used to do it with such ease.

23. Matt Cassel: Okay, Matt Cassel fans. Do any of you still exist? Is there anyone out there who is still willing to use his Jamaal Charles induced, red-zone TD inflated, weak schedule-boosted 27:7 TD-INT ratio in 2010 to argue that he's anything more than this generation's Scott Mitchell? No? Okay. Carry on then.

24. Mark Sanchez: Oh, how I wanted to rank Mirerez lower. I have hopes that some of the plebeian passers below him on this list will leapfrog him this year. For now, however, Sanchez's 3474 yards and 26 TD passes last year, however hollow, give him a better resume than anyone below him on the list. That said, if there's anyone left who thinks that a guy who has a weak arm, who has never been accurate enough in college or through three seasons in the NFL to compensate for that weak arm, who turns the ball over at an incredibly alarming rate, and who is nothing more than the product of two massive hype machines (USC, the NYC media) will somehow magically transform into a Pro Bowler on a team with less offensive talent than he's had around him in the past, I'd like to meet you so I can punch you in the face.

25. Sam Bradford: I thought Sam Bradford was an average player coming out of college. I railed against those like Ross Tucker who thought his "good" rookie year justified crowning him as a top 15 quarterback last year. His "good" rookie year was actually just a media overreaction to an 18:15 TD:INT ratio and the usual crap about poise and intangibles. Bradford actually just threw an ungodly amount of short passes and didn't turn the ball over that much (for a rookie). Last year was an unmitigated disaster that can't be entirely blamed on Bradford, but a guy who threw for 6 TD passes in ten starts in his second year doesn't inspire much confidence. That was actually the fewest number of TD passes for any QB with 350 or more attempts in a season since Trent Dilfer threw 4 in his second season. That's not good company, Sam.

26. Jake Locker:  Iggins! and I spent some time trying to project Jake Locker's stat line for the season and decided that something around 55-57% completions, 3300 yds, 22 TDs, and 15-17 INTs would make sense. I love Jake Locker's talent, but it's always hard for me to accept that an inaccurate college passer will become a consistent NFL thrower. I'm guessing his ceiling is somewhere around Joe Flacco while his floor is Rex Grossman with speed. A likely middle ground would be Derek Anderson circa 2007.

27. Christian Ponder: Christian Ponder has the skill set of Chad Pennington without the incredible accuracy and with far more turnovers. That's....well. That's not going to end well. I wouldn't worry, though. He's got all the trademarks of a guy destined to have a long NFL career. With a clipboard.

28. Brandon Weeden: This is probably not justifiable either. The idea that a rookie starter for the goddamn Browns could put up better numbers than four other quarterbacks in the NFL is probably not tenable, but I like Weeden's talent and think he's a better pocket passer than Tannehill and maybe even RGIII. It may have been stupid to invest the franchise in a 29 year old, but that doesn't diminish his on field value. I think he might surprise.

29. John Skelton/Kevin Kolb: If Kolb wins the job, he'll probably be game manger-ish enough to move up a few spots on the ranking. I have no doubt that Skelton is just Derek Anderson all over again. He's the classic case of "fan favorite who got lucky in meaningless games" and will no doubt shit all over that goodwill when he gets an extended chance to start. Skelton hasn't even been Average in a single statistical category in 14 career starts. Besides, their line is atrocious and is going to get both of them killed anyway.

30. Russell Wilson: The list of rookie quarterbacks who were first or second round quarterbacks and had immediate success is short. The list of rookie quarterbacks who came from later rounds and had immediate success is much, much shorter. I've been a huge fan of Wilson since his first year at NC State, and I think it's a sad failure of the NFL scouting system that a guy fell so far simply because he's 5'11'' and not 6'', but to expect anything other than typical rookie struggles from the guy is absurd.

31. Ryan Tannehill: Last year an NFL team took a mediocre Big 12 quarterback solely due to his measurables. Most seasoned experts said he needed to sit a year before he started because his glaring flaws needed time for correction and the team around him lacked the talent to do anything but destroy his confidence. The Jaguars started Gabbert anyway and the result was a crime against the very profession of quarterbacking. This year it's the Dolphins who are pissing into the face of conventional wisdom, and they'll get the reward of watching turnover-prone, happy-footed Tannehill throw to what may be the worst receiver corps in the NFL (thanks for trading Brandon Marshall and taking the Bears out of that conversation, guys!) while his "star" runningback stands idly by following his annual week four injury. Sorry, Tannehill. We barely knew ye.

32. Blaine Gabbert: Oh, and here's Blaine Gabbert. Hell, I'm just going to quote directly from the Football Outsiders almanac:

"Watch Blaine Gabbert's tape last year and you will see a boy playing with men. There were a few minor signs of improvement, and a few nice throws down the stretch, but nothing that would lead you to suggest that he had turned a corner. This is a quarterback that made the vast majority of his throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. This is a quarterback that showed signs of panic even when his pocket was relatively clean—though he did get a bit better at this as the season wore on. What was most galling about watching him was his footwork. He correctly stepped into maybe one of every nine throws, and that absolutely killed his accuracy."

That's pretty much exactly what the book was on Gabbert coming out of college. The guy failed to get 7.0 YPA in a fucking spread offense in the Big 12, where Jim Abbott could throw for 200 yards a game with his Other arm. He has a great arm but no ability to throw a consistent deep ball. He can run, but doesn't do it effectively. He scrambles when he has a pocket and stands frozen when everything goes to Hell around him. The Jaguars have rightly tried to load up on wide receiver talent (although the whole Not Paying MJD thing is kind of unintentionally ratcheting up the pressure on Gabbert), but few of Gabbert's issues had anything to do with his targets. He's. not. good.

That's everyone. I counted only the starting QBs, but if Tebow takes over for Sanchez you can probably slot him somewhere around Weeden. He's easily the worst passer, but his ability to run at least makes him more of a threat than Blaine Fucking Gabbert. Matt Flynn, meanwhile, would probably belong in Matt Cassel territory even though, long-term, Wilson probably is a better option.

 Phew. That was long. I hope at least one of you made it to the end of all three of these.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Your 2012 SKO Quarterback Rankings 11-20

The rankings continue!

11. Matt Schaub: Matt Schaub is an unlucky bastard. For years he toiled in obscurity to anyone who didn't play fantasy football, putting up great numbers for a Texans team that couldn't keep San Jose State from dropping 30 points. This year, the Texans defense made one of the great turnarounds in history and they were playoff bound when Schaub went down. He was deprived of that first playoff start and potentially much more.

Sadly, that's been Matt's issue his whole career: he's fragile. Since coming to the Texans in 2007, Schaub's missed at least 5 starts in all but two campaigns. This year the Texans are one of the preseason favorites in the AFC and Schaub himself is bidding for an extension. We'll see if he can pull it off.

12. Matthew Stafford: 5,000 yards and 41 TDs just don't buy you what they used to. Stafford is undeniably talented and certainly had an impressive season for a guy who spent most of the previous two seasons at home nursing his various shoulder injuries. That said, can anyone shake the feeling that Stafford, without Calvin Johnson, would be lucky to be Joe Flacco?  Stafford struggled in games against Green Bay, New Orleans, and Chicago when Johnson averaged just 66 yards and scored just 1 TD. Add that into his 1-6 record (including playoffs) against playoff teams this last season (and that 1 playoff opponent they beat was f*&king Tebow) and you have some questions as to how good Matthew Stafford can be when Calvin Johnson can't just run roughshod over non-contending secondaries. That said, Megatron or no, one more season of that kind of production and Stafford belongs well into the top ten. Also, I did say he'd be better than Mark Sanchez, Iggins! champion of the 2009 NFL draft, so, Ha.

13. Matt Ryan: I've been a frequent critic of Matt Ryan, even though I'm fond of the guy. He has definite limitations. Before last year, he was overly conservative, struggled to go deep with any consistency, and had watching his YPA decline every year of his career. The addition of Julio Jones helped greatly, as the Falcons finally opened up the playbook and Ryan responded with a 4,000 yard campaign and a greatly improved 7.5 YPA. Unfortunately, all of that good will went out the door when he failed to muster a single offensive point in his third one-and-done playoff appearance. I hate to say Ryan can never be More than just a very good game-manager, because others have made the leap, but at this point it's safe to say that he should get comfortable in this tier of QBs.

14. Joe Flacco: Flacco and Ryan. Forever linked by their excellent shared rookie campaigns and their never-ending playoff frustrations since. Here's the thing about rookie quarterbacks: not that long ago, and still in some cases, it used to be that rookie QBs were expected to struggle until they broke through in years two and three. If a guy like Dan Marino or Peyton Manning had an outstanding rookie year, well, he was clearly destined for greatness. Nowadays high schools are installing pro style offenses with passing camps and colleges have more preparation then ever. Players enter the NFL better-prepared than ever before. What this has done in the case of guys like Flacco and Ryan (and I'm guessing Andy Dalton) is that it's inflated people's sense of their potential. Ryan and Flacco played so well as rookies that clearly the sky was the limit! Unless, maybe, they were just really NFL-ready and were never actually going to progress that far past said rookie seasons. Flacco, especially, seems to have peaked and hasn't made much measurable progress since his second campaign. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since he's a perfectly acceptable starting QB in the NFL, especially for a defensively minded team like the Ravens, but it leads to undue pressure on a guy who may never really be That guy.

15. Michael Vick: If you look at his numbers since the Vikings upset the Eagles in 2010 by using Antoine Winfield to nickel-blitz the shit out of Vick and gave him one of his many rib injures, Vick's supposed transformation into an elite passer was really just modest improvement into an acceptable one: he has 59% completion % and an 83.6 rating in his last  15 games. Paired with his running ability, that makes him a dangerous player. Unfortunately, that running ability has led to his frequent injures, which limits his value and has him now reducing his rushing attempts (and consequently the value added by his rushing ability). What this means is Vick is now an average passer who can sometimes run and is often injured. Sounds good for #15.

16. Andy Dalton: Damn, has it really been long enough for us to designate someone as "the next Matt Ryan?" Because that's Dalton.

17. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick is a perfectly adequate passer when he's healthy and his protection holds up. In Buffalo that's worth $59 million. Woof.

18. Andrew Luck: Yeah, I'm doing it. You look at the guys that are coming up and tell my you really think I'm stiffing any of them. Luck may not even have the 18th best passing stats in the NFL this year, but I'd rather have him than anyone left on this list.

19. RGIII: Okay. Maybe I'd rather have him. His rushing ability should make him more of an immediate threat than Luck, and he throws a majestic deep ball. Hopefully the Redskins won't ruin him.

20. Alex Smith: Congratulations, Alex Smith! Top 20! The 49ers will tell you they think he'll take the next step with a geriatric Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and AJ Jenkins (I'm sorry, I'm an Illini fan who loves AJ Jenkins, but, c'mon). I think a guy who has been in the NFL for nearly a decade now has taken all of his steps, and should just continue to avoid mistakes and hope his defense will carry his ass.

That's it for now. Part 3 to come!