Jay Cutler's Value: Embracing the Unquantifiable (Sorta)

Earlier today, one of the author's at Yahoo Sports posited that Jay Cutler deserves consideration for league MVP, despite his underwhelming stats. As evidence, he used the fact that the Bears are 25-10 in their last 35 games with Jay Cutler, and just 2-6 without him going back to 2010. It's probably also worth noting that two of the losses attributed to Cutler, the 2010 Giants game and this year's Texans game, were fairly close contests in which Cutler missed the entire second half. The argument, therefore, is, basically, that Jay Cutler "just wins games."

This is unsettling to me. Not that it's untrue. It's absolutely true, in the sense that the Bears are an immeasurably better team with Jay Cutler at the helm than they are without him. What's unsettling is that this line of logic requires me to do something I'm not comfortable with. I have to disregard statistical performance and embrace some vague, unquantifiable "winning" quality that Jay Cutler has. At first glance this is terrifying, leading me somewhere into a realm dominated by people like Trent Dilfer, Skip Bayless, and Iggins! on a bad day.

Looking closer at the situation, however, I ask myself if it's really that crazy to say that Cutler's value to the Bears really does go beyond his production. Frankly, stats do still tell a major part of this story. In the eight non-Cutler games since 2010, Bears QBs have compiled a horrid stat-line, completing just 53% of their passes with a 5-17 ratio and a QB rating of 41.8, with 36 sacks in those 8 games.

Cutler, in that time period, has completed 59.8% of his passes with a 49-34 ratio and an 84.7 rating with 104 sacks in those 35 games. While those numbers seem underwhelming when compared with the NFL elites, the comparison between him and his backups really drives home what Jay has managed to do with a woeful supporting cast. It's mind-boggling, especially when you realize that, even though Jay has taken an average of 3 sacks per game during that time period, he's clearly bailed out his offensive line repeatedly (despite the narrative often stating the contrary) since they've allowed 4.5 sacks per game without him. Yesterday seemed to drive home that point, as Cutler scrambled several times to avoid sacks and had two very notable plays where he bounced outside to extend the play, with the pass to Marshall that led to interference in the end zone and the ridiculous laser to Spaeth for a a TD.

Now, it's fair to say "well, Cutler's backups suck. That doesn't excuse him for posting mediocre numbers just because they were worse." Fair point. Todd Collins and Caleb Hanie were dreadful, but Jason Campbell in his career was considerably better, even on middling Redskin and Raider teams, than he's played in two games as a Bear. Even with his history of poor protection, he seemed overwhelmed by the relentless pass rush that he faced behind the Bears line. Regardless of the dubious talent of Jay's backups, a disparity that great has to give one pause. 

The idea going into this season was that, with the acquisition of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Bush, the return of a healthy Matt Forte, and a more "Cutler-friendly" offense run by Mike Tice and Jeremy Bates, Cutler would have no more excuses for statistically average production. In reality, it hasn't played out that way. Forte has been injured, under-used, and underwhelming compared to past years. The offensive line has been a roller coaster all year. Alshon Jeffery has missed half the season, and only Brandon Marshall has proven to be what we thought he'd be out of that group. Earl Bennett missed several games and has also seemed to disappear for long stretches. The team hasn't gotten even mediocre production at tight end, and Tice has called himself out for inconsistent play-calling. It hasn't been pretty, frankly. So Cutler does have excuses for an 81 rating and an average 13-11 ratio. He's also suffered from 25 dropped passes, with his receivers dropping nearly 9% of his throws, including several touchdowns.

So in the end it is safe to say that Cutler's value does, in fact, go beyond the numbers. I suddenly, mysteriously, find myself on the opposite side of the winning argument, a far cry from the days of the Cutler trade, when I had to duel with Broncos fans who cited Cutler's 17-20 record in Denver despite his excellent production as justification for getting rid of him. This, however, is not a case of football correlation not equaling causation. This isn't Tim Tebow winning while scoring less than 20 PPG as the media ignores his defense's contributions or the string of non-contending squads they defeated. Nor is this Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton riding the coattails of a masterful defense in a weak division to ride to a crown. Jay Cutler is a contributing factor, if not always the most noticeable one, to the Bears winning a lot of football games.

While the Bears may not throw the game on Jay's shoulders and tie their hopes to his right arm, like the Green Bay Packers do with Aaron Rodgers (a proposition that's been less profitable this year than in the past), they do rely on him to make an otherwise hopeless offense into a non-liability. Acknowledging this may require some uncomfortable acceptance of old-school axioms and seemingly outdated concepts like the "eyeball test", but the results are quantifiable on the scoreboard, and right now that really is all that matters.

The Story so Far (and Why it is Dumb)

Like the others, allow me to apologize for my extended absence from the airwaves. In my case, I was away simply because my job didn’t need doing. Everything coming out of Chicago was surprisingly positive for the last two weeks, and there just didn’t seem to be anything worth saying that Red or Iggins couldn’t say better.

Even the intrepid crew at the Sun-Times was pretty much on the same page as we were: the Bears are still leading their division and these losses came with a backup QB to two of the best teams in the NFL. Cutler’s absence was the death knell against the Texans, but people calmly noted that a single TD at any point in the second half would’ve changed the game completely and Cutler probably could have gotten one.

The 49ers loss was, in my book, an unfortunate repercussion of Cutler’s injury. The defense played poorly, but to me it looked like it was because they weren’t prepared. Colin Kaepernick threw the passes, but Jim Harbaugh was the one who beat the defense. He had them on their heels all night with plays they had clearly never seen before. Cutler being present does more than put numbers on the Bears’ side of the board, it gets the defense off the field. They get time to rest, to think about what they saw and try to adjust to it. Maybe they still lose, but at least they have a chance. As it was, Campbell gave them enough time to get some water and strap their helmets back on before they had to get back in there.

However, due to what I’m assuming is the magic of my birthday, the Bears got back on top of the division after a thrashing of the Vikings and an even worse Giants thrashing of the Packers. And it is with that that I get to the point.

When the Bears lost to the Texans after a punishing illegal hit that took Cutler out of the second half, people were talking about how they “showed who they truly were” and “got exposed as pretenders.” Nevermind that their offense has statistically been about three times as effective after halftime, Cutler’s presence would have been good for at least one TD in that game, and a TD might have been all it took to turn that one around; the team that lost was the real Chicago Bears, and the team that won seven games fooled us all into thinking they could play football well.

Today, the Packers were torn apart by the then-6-4 Giants. They got slaughtered at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, their superstar receivers were unable to break open in coverage, and Aaron Rodgers got sacked five times for the fourth time this season. Despite his admittedly incredible mustache, he just couldn’t get it going in the face of a fierce pass rush.

Not one person is talking about who the Packers “really” are. For three hours, not one commentator or reporter said word one about the Packers being “exposed.” The same way nobody was doing so after they lost to the Colts. The same way they weren’t when Aaron Rodgers had a hard time getting started this season. And it’s really pretty simple to explain.

Bears 28, Vikings 10: Terror Alert Lowered to Orange

First off, I thank Iggins! for apologizing on my behalf for my annual disappearance. The back-to-back losses had less to do with it than my thesis, Thanksgiving, and a long road trip to North Dakota, where my brother has the gall to not pay for sports programming that he won't watch, so I missed the debacle in SF. I'm back now and shall not abandon you again, except when I go up to Minneapolis to watch Bears-Vikes 2 live. Now with the recap!

The Bears came out today on offense looking like the seeping puddle of diarrhea they've been the last few weeks, with a Matt Forte fumble and a sack of Cutler by Roberto Garza's foot on their first two plays from scrimmage. After that, however, things got much better as they took advantage of turnovers, a renewed commitment to the run, and, most importantly, the return of Jay Cutler to put up 28 points in a one-sided beatdown of the Vikings. The win put the Bears at 8-3, leaving the pressure on Green Bay to win tonight in New York, and most importantly helped to ease some of our still-present concerns over this team's title chances. Next week they get Seattle at home, which should again be another good test for this offense.

The Good:

Jay Cutler: As unspectacular as the final numbers are sometimes, is there really anyone left out there who doesn't appreciate that Jay Cutler alone can make this offense look something less than completely fucked. He keeps plays alive by scrambling and makes plays downfield outside the pocket like few can. Today he was a very efficient 23 of 31 for 188 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, and an 86.5 rating, although Marshall dropped two TD passes (one of which he was interfered with, to be fair) and the interception was also off of Marshall's hands as well. Most importantly, he came back, they won, they converted most of their 3rd downs, and he is healthy.

Brandon Marshall: I don't mean to harp on him for the drops, since he caught 12 balls for 92 yards and is now the first Bears 1,000 yd receiver in a decade. Greatest trade in franchise history.

Secondary: Tillman recovered a fumble (he left the game with an injury, but seems okay), Conte had an INT that set up a TD and nearly had another, and altogether they held the Vikings to 144 net yards passing.

Defensive line: Although they had just two sacks (one by Henry Melton, of course, and a split sack between an Idonije and McClellin sandwich) they harassed Ponder all day and forced him to try and make plays outside the pocket all game long, which he mostly failed to do. 

The Offensive Line: It wasn't a dominating performance by any measure, as their run game was hit or miss outside of one long, beautiful drive in the second quarter, and Cutler managed to avoid several sacks, but it was a step in the right direction. Chris Spencer played well before suffering what hopefully was a minor injury, although Edwin Williams looked good in his place. Jonathan Scott avoided any major errors at right tackle, which is an improvement on it's own. This is a tough Vikings defensive line, one that racked up seven sacks against this unit last year, and this was a baby-steps improvement.

Mike Tice: He's been a shitheel most of the year, frankly, and my patience is very thin, but I thought Tice called an excellent game today. There was some shitty execution, but for the most part he dialed up the right calls for the situation all game long. I appreciated the play action kill shot to Marshall, even if Brandon didn't come up with it, and the commitment to the run game, especially on that long touchdown drive that ended with the TD to Spaeth. Even the interception came on a great play call, as Marshall was wide open. More like this and I'll calm down, Mike.

The Bad:

Injuries: Forte went down with another ankle injury. Hester was concussed. They lost both Lance Louis and Chris Spencer. Tillman left, but appears to be okay. Now reports say Lance Briggs left the locker room with his foot in a boot. Hopefully none of these are terribly serious, but this win was costly. Can't possibly expect all of them to be back by next week. Guh.

First Drives: The Bears have been awful on their first drive of the game all year long, and today was no different. For the second time in three games they fumbled on their first offensive play. Maybe just take a knee next time.

The Ugly:

Christian Ponder: For a guy who was supposed to make his living as the next Chad Pennington, he's not very accurate and is fairly careless with the football. This is a talented Vikings team that would be legitimately frightening if they had a QB who could actually take advantage of the tremendous benefit that is Adrian Peterson.

That's all for now. Hopefully the injury situation improves throughout the week, but there's no reason not to be happy about the Bears stemming the tide and maintaining their spot at the top of the division. Go bears.

Conference Realignment Thoughts

So I realize now we posted naught of this: these last two weeks have been our annual "bye week(s)". It happens every year: Red and I have to take trips, finals, get swamped with work, are burnt out, and the Bears lose in depressing fashion. It all combines into us taking a week or two off to refresh, eat a lot, have something called Friendsgiving and Christmasian, and ignore the pain we feel about the Bears. We'll be back Monday! In the interim, some thoughts on realignment:


At some point we all have to admit that the "doomsday" theorists were right, don't we? Back when this whole thing started we all heard the theories of how the NCAA landscape was slowly turning into a Pangaea-esque 4 conference super-league that would leave the NCAA smoldering in its wake. Of course, when things "calmed down", everyone laughed at those peope.

"Ha!" they said, "You see, nothing is ever as bad as it first seems! You overreacting fools!"

Then everyone went back about their business. They watched whilst chuckling as the Big East tried to become the Big... Thing... adding teams from every coast imaginable (they probably offered colleges in Canada, London, Mexico, and semi-pro teams in the Congo). People got a bit more nervous when Syracuse and Pittsburgh decided they were done with the Big East.

"But that's natural," they said, "because the Big East just isn't relevant anymore. Of course this was going to happen!"

These are the same people that said realignment was done not months before. And here were two founding Big East members leaving the conference... but people still refused to accept that this thing was not over, would not be over, and will not be over until everyone has been assimilated.

But it got considerably harder to deny over the last week, didn't it? Maryland and Rutgers are now members of the B1G. Some fans are angry because they don't fit regionally. Some are angry because they don't fit athletically. Plenty are angry because Maryland was a founding member of the ACC. They say there is no loyalty anymore.

But what the hell does that even mean? Maryland (and Florida State) voted against the massive exit fee the ACC passed such a short time ago (a ridiculous $50 million) in part because the leadership of that conference had failed so mightily at cashing in on lucrative TV contracts. The conference had failed its members. Maryland felt it was riding a sinking ship.

How bad was it? Well, Maryland is literally willing to pay FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS to leave. Of course, that isn't the only factor: there is also the fact that the B1G is still, despite the dominance of the SEC and the terrible years the B1G has had the past two seasons, the most lucrative conference in the country. Lucrative enough to lure a founding member of an established power conference away from it's home. Maryland's athletic expenses are going to skyrocket! Instead of taking a "long" trip to Clemson every season, now they'll have games against Nebraska and Iowa!

Deja Vu and Prayers for a Time Jump: This Year's Bulls

Sigh. Where to begin?

I only actually started caring about the Bulls after Jordan left. That might sound strange, but I was born in 1989 and as such, until he left, had rarely known a season in which the Bulls weren't champions. At the same time as the Bulls were winning all those titles so were the minor league teams in the Quad Cities area, where I grew up. Being of an age in the single digits, and also being a pretty naive kid for that age, I was almost positive these things were being rigged for my enjoyment, so I just couldn't be happy about them. I was a precocious kid, winning a local NFL game picking competition at 5 and causing the editor to call my parents to make sure my Dad wasn't attempting to put two entries into the competition. My parents handed me the phone, and I proceeded to tell Mr. Nessler about why the Bears had lost on Sunday, why I was sure the Jets would win, and what a 4-3 defense was. He was convinced enough. I believe I took the $200 I won and bought comic books. Good times!

I suppose I related that story to show you that, if there was one thing I knew at that age, it was sports. I've been obsessed with them since I could talk. Yet I just couldn't care about the Bulls. Not until that title team got dismantled and the "rigging" of my NBA team ceased. Suddenly I cared a whole lot. While most Bulls fans were slowly drifting away from the NBA (half because Jordan left, half because the Starburys and Iversons of the world were coming in) I was just becoming interested in it. I "suffered" through Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry, expressed frustration that the Bulls would trade for Jalen Rose, and got excited every draft day for who was going to be the next player to fill out the Bull's young core. I sat. I waited. I knew, eventually, the Bull's young pieces would mature and turn into a good team. Then, finally, the team got good enough to make the playoffs. And not only that, it was with a team centered around guys the Bulls had drafted! Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng. This was 2004-2005.

Halftime in Chicago: The Defense

The midseason review rolls on with the defense. I could waste a ton of time throwing out superlatives to describe the play of the Bears defense this year. They're doing things right now that are just beyond what anyone could have imagined. 28 takeaways. 25 sacks. 7 interceptions for TDs. 2nd in scoring defense. A 7 TD: 17 INT ratio on defense, with an opposing QB rating of 62.9. They're allowing just 88 yards per game rushing, which drops to 78 ypg if you throw out Chris Johnson's 80 yard scamper against the second-stringers in last week's blowout.

The comparisons to the 1985 or even the 2006 team (even though the 2005 defense was actually better) will continue to come at a nauseating pace, but even those teams didn't take the ball away and score at this year's absurd pace. Naturally, the critics will say that they can't keep this up, and perhaps they can't, but the "turnovers are random" axiom often fails to apply to Lovie Smith's teams, since they've led the league in it for nearly a decade now. While the schedule is undoubtedly tougher in the second half, that's got more to do with the opposing defenses left on the docket, rather than the elite offenses, so I'd expect more of the same from these guys going forward. The only question is how many games they'll play.

DEFENSIVE ENDS:

#90 Julius Peppers: 14 tackles, 5 TFL, 5 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries.
Peppers this year hasn't actually been as dominant as he has been the last two years. It's funny to say that since he's tied for the lead in sacks, on pace for another double-digit sack year, and is still clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league, but he was such a menace the last two years that it's worth noting that he's dropped off just a slight bit this year. Part of the reason is his ailing foot, but the main reason is that he's simply got more help this year. He's playing fewer snaps than he has in each of the last three years and the team is still getting a better pass rush. Pepper's has still dominated in big games against Green Bay and Detroit, and he will be there when they really need him in the second half.

#71 Israel Idonije: 21 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks
I'm not a big believer in grit, hustle, heart, or all of the other recycled crap that gets thrown at us as sports fans, but I'd have a hard time believing there are many people out there who don't like Izzy. He's just a relentless, solid football player who is never the fastest or strongest player out there and yet always seems to make an impact. He's given a lot of playing time away to McClellin and Wootton (although some of his loss of PT at end is mitigated by the snaps he gets at DT in sub-packages), but he's still one of their best run-stopping defensive lineman and his pass-rushing productivity is way up from last year. I'm glad we haven't seen the end of Izzy yet.

#98 Corey Wootton: 11 tackles, 2 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 PD, 1 TD
With all due respect to Shea McClellin, the biggest newcomer on defense for the Bears this year has been Wootton. After missing much of his first two seasons with injury, Wootton appears to have recovered all of the burst that made him a potential first rounder before his knee injury his last year at Northwestern, and he's been a holy terror despite his limited reps at DE.

#99 Shea McClellin: 9 tackles, 3 TFL, 2.5 sacks
Despite what Hub Arkush would have you believe, Shea's been a pretty good player this year. Fortunately for the Bears, Izzy's resurgence and Corey Wootton's development have allowed them to pick their spots and avoid having to put too much on McClellin's shoulders, but he's been very effective on 3rd down and on obvious passing downs, racking up over 10 hurries and pressures in addition to his 2.5 sacks and 3 tackles for loss, despite just barely over 40% of the snaps. I'm not sure how to deal with a first round pick actually making an impact in year one. Frankly, I didn't know that was allowed.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES:

#69 Henry Melton: 26 tackles, 5 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles.
Henry Melton is a monster of a man. Last year he was an inconsistent pass-rusher who racked up gaudy sack totals while struggling against the run and disappearing for long stretches. This year he's evolved into the most disruptive interior defensive lineman in the conference, with only Geno Atkins of the Bengals keeping him from claiming the top spot for the NFL. If you ever hear someone try to talk about Ndamukong Suh like he'd be anything other than Henry's backup, punch them. He's not even succeeding in Pepper's wake anymore, as he's done much of his damage with Julius rotating off the field. Hopefully he gets his extension soon and avoids a Tommie Harris-style injury, because we're seeing a guy develop into a pretty special player.

#92 Stephen Paea: 13 tackles, 3 TFL, 1.5 sacks
Stephen Paea is also a guy who is turning out to be quite the football player. While he'll never put up the gaudy pass-rushing statistics of Melton, he's a better pass-rusher than most of the nose guards that have played the position in Lovie's tenure and is just as effective against the rush. Paea's kept Matt Toeiana, a very solid player, on the inactive list most of the year and hopefully he can stay healthy and continue to progress, because the early returns are very promising.

#93 Nate Collins: 6 tackles, 1 PD
Collins gets the third spot in the recap since he's managed to play his way into that spot in the rotation. This is somewhat surprising, considering he was suspended for the first game of the season and Amobi Okoye has performed well as a Bear, but Collins has certainly made the most of his opportunity. It's good for Lovie to have a guy like Nate that he can point to as an example of someone who earned his spot in the lineup simply through his hard work in practice.

#91 Amobi Okoye: 6 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
Again, it's not like Amobi Okoye was under-performing. Just like last year, he's been a very effective rotational DT, but Lovie felt Collins gave them more and was playing better, and he's proven Lovie correct so far. You have to love that this unit, which for so long was just the Julius Peppers Show, now has so much depth and talent that a guy like Okoye can't even dress on Sundays.

#75 Matt Toeiana: 3 tackles
Toeiana, like his predecessor Anthony Adams (and his predecessor Ian Scott) was a hard-working gap plugger, but he just lacked the upside that Paea offered and has lost out on the numbers game, being inactive for the last seven games.

LINEBACKERS:

#53 Nick Roach: 17 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PD
Roach, like every other SAM backer in Lovie's system, will never get the credit he deserves, but he's been very effective this year, hasn't been caught out of position, and has made a few more big plays than he's used to, since he has been asked to do a bit more with Urlacher's range somewhat limited. I appreciate you, Nick. I swear.

#54 Brian Urlacher: 41 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 Fumble Recoveries, 6 PDs, 1 INT, 1 TD
It appears that the reports of Urlacher's demise were somewhat premature. Fortunately the Bears managed to restrain themselves from following Telander's sage advice that they cut Urlacher before the season, since he's rounded into form the last three weeks, culminating in his awesome effort against the Texans. While guys like Dan Bernstein may constantly moan that the Bears will be in trouble once teams "test" "#54's lateral motion, I'm guessing they'll fail if they try. He's on his way back, folks. He'll be there when it counts, like always.

#55 Lance Briggs: 48 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 FF, 1 Sack, 6 PD, 2 INTs, 2 TDs
That said, the torch on defense has clearly been passed to Lance Briggs, who is just playing out of his f*&king mind right now. I never grow tired of opposing runningbacks turning on that second gear as they zoom toward an opening, only for Briggs to swallow them alive in the backfield. Don't f*&k with Lance Briggs.

CORNERBACKS:

#33 Charles Tillman: 43 tackles, 1 TFL, 7 FF, 1 Fumble Recovery, 6 PD, 2 INTs, 2 TDs
I can't add anything new about Charles Tillman that you haven't already heard or seen in recent weeks. One of the most underrated players in Bears history thanks to a zone defense that's always led to meatballs blaming Tillman for every opposing completion ever, Tillman's finally getting national recognition for being a badass, turnover-producing machine. All that's left for him in the second half is to find out if he can make history. He's only 4 forced fumbles away. He just got four of them in one f*&king game. Sorry, this defense just brings out the expletives.

#26 Tim Jennings: 42 tackles, 1 TFL, 15 PDs, 6 INTs, 1 TD
You're always welcome to avoid Charles Tillman if you'd like, so long as you're comfortable throwing at the NFL's leading interceptor. Jennings, like Tillman, has always been an underrated cover corner, but he's finally capitalizing on turnover opportunities and the results have been mind-blowing. 6 INTs is amazing, but 15 pass deflections after just 8 games is probably more impressive. Goddammit, I'm not even wearing pants at this point. I love this defense.

#30 DJ Moore: 25 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 PDs, 2 INTs
So far DJ's done a pretty good job this year of being DJ Moore. He's said whacky shit about Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford. He's gotten two more interceptions. He's gotten several pressures on his signature "oh f&*k, it's that little pest" nickel-blitz.  He's given away some playing time lately to Kelvin Hayden since he's missed some tackles and got badly burned by Brandon LaFell against the Panthers, but I don't think DJ's going to be down for long.

#24 Kelvin Hayden: 10 tackles, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 PD
It's also possible that Lovie just wants to give Kelvin Hayden some more opportunities, because he's a very good player when he's healthy, which he appears to be this year. He was very effective in the opener when P'nut went out for a bit with an injury, but he's mostly split reps at nickel. This was a very good signing. Can I high five Phil Emery for padding the depth on this defense? I'll put my pants back on for it.

SAFETIES:

#47 Chris Conte: 40 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 fumble recovery, 6 PD, 1 INT
The Bears first started Major Wright and Chris Conte at safety together in week six last year. Since that time, in games where those two have paired up together, the Bears pass defense has a 10 TD: 25 INT ratio. They're always in position, they don't get beat deep, and they can come up quickly despite starting most plays at least 15 yards back from the line. You don't always hear their names called much, which is good, but they're both maturing into good players. Conte had a rough game against the Panthers, but has been very solid for a converted corner with just 17 career starts, and, as PFF noted, his closing speed is incredible as he's been one of the most efficient run-stopping free safeties in the NFL despite starting nearly every play deep.

#21 Major Wright: 32 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 FF, 4 PD, 3 INTs, 1 TD
No single player on the Bears roster has improved more than this year. Pro Football Focus has him on their NFC midseason all-star team, and noted that he's one of the best run-stopping safeties in the NFL this year. While he's not the world's greatest safety in coverage, he's made up for it with big plays, including the first of the seven pick-sixes the Bears have managed this year. Major was undoubtedly my biggest concern on defense going into the season, and he's responded by actually earning some of those comparisons to Mike Brown that people made on draft day.

That's it for now. It's rare to write one of these and not have to criticize someone. I'd feel like a rabid homer for all of the positivity, but there's really nothing about this defense you could criticize right now. Glorious.

Go Bears.

It's Halftime in Chicago: The Offense

Clint is unimpressed

The last couple of years I've been able to break down the Bears at the bye week, since it's come very close to the mid-point of the season. This year the bye came a bit too early for that much perspective, so I've waited till now. As in the past, I'll break things down in thirds by offense, defense, and coaching.

On offense the story, as we know, has been inconsistency, but count me among those who think their struggles are a bit overrated. I've seen bad offense. I am a f*&king connoisseur of bad offense. This is not a bad offense. Is it a bad offensive line? Possibly, although they've been a dominant run-blocking unit when they commit to it. Their protection issues are still irritating, but the sacks tend to come in fits and starts and there are long stretches of competence (two sacks or fewer in four games, 5 or more in three). Bad offenses, regardless of opponent, do not rack up 500 yards of total offense, as they did against the Jaguars. They do not score 41 points against what is currently a 5-3 team. Bad offenses do not have Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Matt Forte. They may not have figured out how to find that consistency and balance that great offenses have, but they're far closer than they've ever been in recent memory.

QUARTERBACKS:

#6 Jay Cutler: 144/241 (59.8%), 1774 YDs, 12 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.4 YPA, 85.3 Rating
The statistics aren't mind-blowing, but outside of the debacle in Green Bay he's having the best season of his Bears career. He's mostly kept his composure and avoided putting the defense in bad situations, he's gone for the big play when it will put the dagger into the heart of opposing defenses, he's clearly relishing having Brandon Marshall back, and he also shut up more than a few of the idiots who questioned his toughness by taking a bone-shattering hit from Ndamukong Suh and coming back in after one play. In his last four games he's got a 7-2 ratio with a 94.7 rating despite some typically shaky protection. The second half of this season is probably the most important stretch of his career to this point. He's either going to be the guy we all hope he can be, or he's going to get all of the blame for what could only be considered a major disappointment after this start. I think he's going to seize the opportunity, but to do it he's going to need to stay patient early in games, get the ball out of his hand quicker, and look off of Marshall earlier in his progressions.

#2 Jason Campbell: 1/1 (100%), 0 YDs, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 0.0 YPA, 79.2 Rating
I mostly just posted Campbell's stat line to demonstrate how incredibly flawed passer rating is. Jason, unfortunately, had to actually take meaningful snaps in a regular season game becuase of Jay's ribs. He didn't really do anything, and the scare ended as soon as it had begun, so we'll have to wait and hopefully never find out what Jason would do as head of the offense. I'm at least 72% sure that he'll be better than Hanie if that opportunity comes. I'm willing to leave that question unanswered, though.

RUNNINGBACKS:

#22 Matt Forte: 107 rushes, 539 yds, 5.0 ypr, 3 TDs, 20 receptions, 179 yards.
The offense still runs through Matt Forte, even if Mike Tice tends to forget that at times. He's averaging 103 yards from scrimmage per game, down from last year's ridiculously high total, but understandable given that he's no longer the team's best receiver, he was slowed for a bit with his ankle injury, and he actually has a true complementary back in Michael Bush. The team's going to need to lean on him more in the weeks to come. When they do, they tend to win a lot of ball games.

#29 Michael Bush: 77 carries, 236 yds, 3.4 ypr, 3 TDs, 7 receptions, 66 yards.
He's a beast. His yards per carry is rather low since the Bears basically used him to grind out the clock for three quarters against the Rams, but he's been extremely effective in the short yardage and goal-to-go situations that they brought him in for, he tends to wear down defenses on the few series that he gets each game, and he's actually shown some pretty good elusiveness as a receiver, twice hurdling defenders for first down receptions. So far he's everything we thought Chester Taylor and Marion Barber were going to be.

#25 Armando Allen: 17 rushes, 90 yds, 5.3 ypr, 1 TD
I don't want to make too much out of his garbage time yardage, but he's shown some nice burst and he hits the hole fast. A nice change of pace back.

#32 Kahlil Bell: 12 rushes, 32 yds, 2.7 ypr, 1 reception, 11 yds.
Cut in the preseason. Re-signed when Forte got hurt. Ineffective in his few opportunities, cut again. Always a bridesmaid...

RECEIVERS:

#15 Brandon Marshall: 59 receptions, 797 yds, 13.5 yds/rec, 7 TDs
There really aren't enough superlatives to describe the joy that watching Brandon Marshall brings me after years of Johnny Knox, Bernard Berrian, Roy Williams, Muhsin Muhammed, and all of the other impostors the Bears have thrown out there as "#1 receivers." This guy is everything you could possibly want. He's big, he's surprisingly fast, he changes the way defenses approach the team, and the little things that he does as far as adjusting to under/overthrown balls, leaping for jump balls, and catching back shoulder throws are a breath of fresh air after decades of shit. He's on pace to shatter nearly every franchise receiving record, and, well, what more do you want me to say?

#80 Earl Bennett: 16 receptions, 178 yds, 11.1 yd/rec.
Unfortunately, in a fairly common pattern for his career, the BBE missed several games early with a hand injury. He's been back the last couple of weeks and used somewhat sparingly for various reasons (Cutler injured and the passing game shut down against Detroit, Cutler getting killed for an entire half against Carolina, Tennessee couldn't cover Marshall), but he's hopefully working his way back, with 6 receptions in the last two games. When he caught consecutive first downs against the Panthers it seemed to change the entire momentum of the game, so hopefully Cutler can remember that Earl was his guy before Brandon was his guy again, and that's it okay to have two guys, and is in fact really good for an NFL offense to use said guys.

#17 Alshon Jeffery: 14 receptions, 184 yds, 13.1 yd/rec, 2 TDs
In Jay's defense, he did look for Alshon Jeffery when Marshall was taken away from him early in the season. Jeffery, like Marshall, has been everything we could have hoped for from a second round draft pick. Unfortunately, he broke his wrist while making a great touchdown grab against Jacksonville and his still working his way backs. Most reports say he'll be back against the 49ers while a few optimists have speculated his return against Houston. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later, because the passing game, especially the quick game, is much more effective when he and Marshall are both on the field.

#23 Devin Hester: 13 receptions, 13.5 yd/rec, 1 TD
He's had a few great moments, like his TD against the Cowboys and his great diving grab against the Jaguars, but the song's mostly been the same for Devin. Hopefully he'll be relegated to an even smaller role once Jeffery and Bennett are both available for only the third time all season. Sorry, Devin, but this experiment's over. On special teams, he's been mostly hesitant and somewhat awful at times, but he still impacts opposing coaches and sent Ron River into full-blown hysteria, apparently. So that's nice.

TIGHT ENDS:

#87 Kellen Davis: 10 receptions, 144 yds, 14.4 yds/rec, 2 TDs
For all of the fuss about Tice making greater use of the tight end than Martz, Davis is barely ahead of last year's pace. Of course, it'd help a lot of if he didn't drop every third pass thrown his way, but he's trying. His touchdown against Carolina was super awesome? He's also regressed a bit as a pass protector, with 3 sacks and several hurries allowed. Hopefully he'll play better in the second half, because they need production from that position, either as a receiver or giving Jay time to find his other guys.

#89 Matt Spaeth: 1 reception, 4 yds. 4.0 yds/rec.
On twitter, during the Panthers game, several media members tore into Jay for overlooking a wide-open Spaeth and forcing an incompletion to Marshall. On the very next play, Jay hit Spaeth for a first down with tons of room to run...and Spaeth had an absolutely brutal, unforced drop. He's also been poor in pass protection based on his usual standard, getting beat against Carolina and Tennessee. He'll need to step it up to avoid losing playing time to Evan Rodriguez.

#86 Kyle Adams: 2 receptions, 24 yds, 12.0 yds/rec.
Be honest. Do any of you remember either of these passes that Adams has allegedly caught? That's really all I have to say here, honestly. Haven't paid much attention to him.

#48 Evan Rodriguez:
He hasn't contributed much on the stat sheet, yet, but in his limited snaps in four game's he's been Pro Football Focus' highest-rated lead-blocker. Considering the knock on him out of college was that he was more of a receiver than an in-line blocker, it should be interesting to see what kind of problems he might pose if the Bears ever make an attempt to get him the ball against a defense that's been lulled into believing he's merely a crash-test dummy.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

#73 J'Marcus Webb: 5.5 sacks allowed, 1 false start, 1 hold, 1 illegal hands to the face.
J'Marcus hasn't actually been terrible this year. He's actually been adequate, and sometimes more than adequate. The 5.5 sacks is a high total, but below what he's done the last couple of years and is more impressive when you consider that 3 of those sacks came in one game when Tice left him alone against Clay Matthews on 11 different occasions. The biggest improvement in J'Marcus has been in his run-blocking, where he's graded out positively almost every game, and in his discipline, as she's cut down on his false starts and holdings dramatically. His facemask against Tennessee that caused a safety was pretty bad, but I pin that one on Tice for passing in the end zone on 2nd and 14 with the lead in the first quarter. Keep it up, J'Marcus.

#62 Chilo Rachal: 1 sack allowed, 2 false starts, 1 unnecessary roughness.
Chilo had some trouble with his run-blocking against the Titans, but he's otherwise been a pretty solid, if not spectacular, player on the left side. He's certainly an improvement over Spencer or Chris Williams. Congratulations, Bears, after five years, you've upgraded the left side of your offensive line from total disaster to "possibly average, from time to time."

#63 Roberto Garza: 1 sack allowed, 3 false starts. 
After committing just 1 penalty all of last year (a hold) Garza has put on his best Olin Kreutz impression with three false starts at center in the first half. Please stop that. He's also been largely ineffective as a run-blocker.  It might not hurt to see if Spencer could be an upgrade at his natural position of center.

#60 Lance Louis: 2 sacks allowed, 2 false starts.
In 13 career starts at guard, Lance Louis has graded positively as a run blocker and allowed just 3 sacks. As a right tackle last year he allowed 10 sacks in just 11 starts. This year he's been the most consistent performer on the line and is the best-all around blocker on the team. He also flashed his old tight end skills with his first career reception on a tipped pass against the Titans. So far three of Tice's projects, Louis, Rachal, and Webb, are starting to pay dividends. Hopefully they can continue to make progress, because they'll be severely tested in the weeks to come.

#72 Gabe Carimi: 4.5 sacks allowed, 3 false starts, 3 holds, 1 unnecessary roughness.
The numbers don't really do justice to how bad Gabe Carimi has been in pass protection. He's allowed over 20 hurries and hits. He is, to quote Iggins! once more, " a dumpster fire." Now, he is also one of the highest ranked run-blocking tackles in all of football and he's the best run-blocker on the Bears. That doesn't make you feel less panicked about the future, does it? Me neither. He's a gaping hole in pass protection and that's what's going to count more than his run-blocking excellence down the stretch. There are plenty of excuses to be made about his knee injury, his relative inexperience, and that's fine, but there's been no evidence of progress throughout the year, and that is certainly concerning. Hopefully it gets fixed, but if there's one Bear that I'm struggling to find my optimism for, it's Gabe.

#67 Chris Spencer: 1 sack allowed, 1 holding.
He was mediocre throughout the preseason and was bulldozed in the run game against Indy and Green Bay. He played very well at right guard last year, but the switch to left just wasn't his thing. Would be interesting to see what he or Eddie Williams could possibly do at center if Garza continues to falter, but, much like his predecessor, Garza is a long-tenured, well respected veteran and it will take a complete disaster to get him benched.

That's it for the offense. Later this week I get to splooge all over the defense. Looking forward to it!

Go Bears.

It Was Only a Matter of Time, Rick.

I knew when I took this gig that it wouldn’t be long before I crossed swords with two-time Highlights magazine Contributor of the Month Rick Telander. He has a well-documented history of ass-flapping lunacy when it comes to these Chicago Bears, and Monday’s column “Bears Offense Needs to get on the ‘D’ Level” is no different.

Right off the bat, the title is steering into classic Telander waters. What he’s saying is that, in order for the Bears to win games (the 7 Deserved Losses negate their existing wins), the offense needs to perform as well as the defense. The defense that is currently performing at an unparalleled level both within franchise history and, potentially, league history. The defense that is currently on pace to absolutely shatter the pick-six record and has already broken several defensive scoring records this season. The defense that is ranked in the top 5 in the league in nearly every category but yards which, as we’ve discussed before, are not points and are therefore of little concern.

Anyway, to the meat of the column! He’s in italics, as always.

Anybody who thinks the Bears’ defense could win a game by itself doesn’t need to read the rest of this column.

Anybody who wants to see me eviscerate Rick Telander and wear his innards as a jaunty chapeau, however, should stick around.

Bears 51, Titans 20. Good Old Fashioned Ass Whuppin'

The Bears dominated the Titans in all three phases, with two phases showing up from the start and the offense kicking it in sometime around the start of the second quarter. From the very first play for the Titans, when Matt Hasselbeck fired a perfect throw to Kenny Britt only for Charles Tillman to pop it for an immediately-deflating fumble, things were clearly going to go the Bears way. In the end they got 37 points from the offense, 7 from the defense, and 7 from special teams, to go along with 358 yards on offense, a 229 yards, 3 TD, 138 rating day for Jay Cutler, 100+ yard efforts from Forte and Marshall, the startling return of the real Brian Urlacher, and Charles Tillman just doing that thing that leaves opposing ball-carriers double clutching the football and dropping to the ground whenever his fists come near.

The Bears finished with 51 points, their most since 1981. They had the most points they've ever scored in a first quarter, 28, and they're now 7-1 at the halfway point for the first time since they last went to a Superbowl. We supposedly have to wait one more week to find out whether we have a good team in Chicago, but I've already made up my mind regardless.

To the specifics:

THE GOOD:

-Brian Urlacher: He's certainly not what he used to be, but it was comforting to see him rack up tackles and make a great break on the ball to get the interception. I sure as hell enjoyed watching him shove Matt Hasselbeck out of the way like a minor nuisance. Someday, maybe as soon as next season, Brian Urlacher won't be a Bear, and I will be sad because of that.

-Corey Wootton and Nate Collins: Wootton's been stellar all year in reserve, but he got a chance to shine today with a blocked punt return TD and a sack to add to his growing list of great plays. Nate Collins justified his spot on the active roster for the second week in a row with a a pass deflection and three tackles. This defensive line's depth is utterly terrifying. In a good way.

-Sherrick McManis: blocked a punt, reminded me that he was on the roster.

-Charles Tillman: The man forced four fumbles today. FOUR. Jesus. He's just on another level right now. For a guy who was always better than he's been given credit for, Tillman's surpassed his own previous bests this year.

-Jay Cutler: He was patient when he needed to be, he took his shots when the opportunity opened up, the sack-fumble, unlike last week, was not his fault since he got killed before he even had a chance to go to his second read, and all three of his touchdown passes were a combination of arm strength, improvisation, and great accuracy. The second one, in particular, was placed right over the corner and safety where only Marshall could make the play. He finished 19/26 for 229 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 138.1 rating, and his passer rating on the season is now back to a respectable 85.3. If he can keep making chickensalad out of this chickenshit offensive line, good things are in the forecast.

-Brandon Marshall: Noted SKO fan RV noted on twitter that Marshall's stats for half a season this year (797 yards, 7 TDs) would both have led the team for an entire year in 6 of the last 9 seasons. Real receivers are awesome. Hopefully Alshon will be back soon, so Marshall can stop carrying this entire offense on his back.

The Bad:

 -Gabe Carimi: the "he's still young" excuse only works if he gradually gets better, not worse. He is, as Iggins! put it, a dumpster fire at right tackle right now. Webb had a hold and the illegal hands to the face that led to the safety, but he wasn't terrible otherwise, but Gabe is just a disaster and it's holding the entire offense back. Mike Tice had better have a damn good plan for keeping Cutler upright against Houston.

-Mike Tice: Just stop getting fucking cute. Oh, look! The Hester reverse when you're up 31-2. HahahahFuck you. Empty backfield on 2nd and 1 in the red zone? Brilliant! Your offensive line is always stellar when you broadcast "WE ARE PASSING" to the opposing D! Just stop it. Run the ball till they load the box, then play-action.

The Ugly:

Brian Billick: Okay. We fucking get it. The Bears are feasting on easy first-half schedule. Get over it. It'd be one thing if they were just scraping by, but other than the Carolina game their average margin of victory over these patsies is 23 points. They're dominating the weak half of their schedule. We don't know HOW great they are yet, but we can at least say they are good without immediately having to dredge up a "but...".

That's it for now. The Bears have done all that we could possibly have hoped for in the first half of the season. The long haul begins next week, but have faith. This team is capable of doing great things. It's doing them right now.

Go Bears.

NFL Prognostication Bukkake: Week 9

Chiefs @ Chargers


Code Red: A Chargers loss here wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest…but Kansas City is so awful it’s impossible to pick them. Chargers win.

Iggins!: The Chiefs winning anything would surprise me. Chargers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Chargers.



Bears @ Titans

Iggins!: The Titans suck, hopefully Tice remembers to run the rock. It might not even matter. The defense is going to do some things. Bears win, 27-9.

Code Red: Another week, more complaints about Mike Tice. Just stop overthinking everything. Bears 24-10.

Mrs. Code Red: Bears 30-10.



Lions @ Jaguars

Code Red: The Lions will be back at .500 and their fans will peak their heads out from under the rock they’ve buried themselves under since the Tigers got swept. Don’t worry, folks. You’re not making the playoffs. Lions win.

Iggins!: The Jags gave GB a scare last week, but even at home it’s hard to pick them. Lions win.

Mrs. Code Red: Lions win.



Cardinals @ Packers

Iggins!: Should be quick and painless. Packers win.

Code Red: Should be, but the Jaguars gave them a run, too. The Cardinals seem ready for a gigantic blowout to punctuate their collapse, though. Packers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Packers win.

Prognostication Bukkake: NCAA Week 10

NCAA:

Mrs. Code Red: 53-27

Code Red: 50-30

Iggins!: 48-32



NFL:

Code Red: 74-44

Mrs. Code Red: 73-45

Iggins!: 70-48



Total:

Mrs. Code Red: 126-72

Code Red: 124-74

Iggins!: 118-80





#12 Oklahoma @ Iowa State

Iggins!: Rhoads tends to check one big thing off his list per year; beat Texas, beat Nebraska, beat Iowa. The only thing left is beat Oklahoma. I’m taking Oklahoma to win, in the interest of staying close, but gun to my head I’d take ISU.
Code Red: You bastards are going to let Tuberville win this fucking conference, aren't you? Oklahoma wins.
Mrs. Code Red: Oklahoma.



#16 Texas A&M @ #15 Mississippi State

Code Red: Starkville is a tough place to win on the road. Mississippi State wins.

Iggins!: Neither team has really beat anybody good yet, so I’ll take the home team. Mississippi State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Mississippi State.



#23 Texas @ #18 Texas Tech

Iggins!: Almost lost to Kansas, eh, Texas? And now you’re going to Lubbock. This should be painful. Texas Tech wins.

Code Red: God dammit. Texas Tech wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Texas Tech

People I Hate: Hub Arkush

In case you all don't remember, last offseason I was bored and started a feature called "People I Hate" to kill time in the offseason. It basically added up to three rants about Dave Wannstedt, Trent Dilfer, and Brian Griese before I forgot about it and moved on.

Today I'm bringing it back for a very special reason: I can't f*&king stand Hub Arkush. In the past I've always found him a minor irritation, but now that the Bears are 6-1 he can't wait to stand in front of the crowd and scream that they're a bunch of frauds. I've decided to tell you why you (and everyone else) have no reason to listen to a damn thing Hub Arkush has to say.

For those unfamiliar with Hub, let me run down a typical radio appearance by Hub:

Chicago Sports Talk Show Host: Hub, what did you think of the Bears on Sunday?

Hub: Well I think a narrow win over a team that had been 1-5 showed you all of the Bears flaws and why they aren't an elite team.

Chicago Sports Talk Show Host: Who would you consider elite?

Hub: Green Bay, New York, San Francisco, Houston, even though all of them could have the exact same arguments about inconsistent offenses, close wins over mediocre teams, or poor scheduling that I'll use against the Bears. The Bears are a "good team" (be sure to say this in the most condescending manner possible) but they're not elite.

(Chicago Sports Talk Show Host If Any of Them Had Balls: So you had the 9-7 Giants who were outscored in the regular season winning the Superbowl last year? Hey, didn't you pick the Chiefs to go to the superbowl this year?)

Chicago Sports Talk Show Host In Real Life: Great points, Hub. All of them. This is why you're our Bears expert.

Now that you're caught up to speed, let's run down the reasons why Hub is as big of a fraud as he'd like you to think the Bears are:

1) He's not an expert at anything. 

If you look at Hub's record you'll see that he's never worked in an NFL front office, never played football at a high level, and was actually fired as Bears color commentator, which is a remarkable accomplishment considering the ineptitude they put up with every year from Jeff Joniak. Hub got the job in the first place because his dad founded Pro Football Weekly, an NFL magazine that projected Blaine Gabbert as a better player than Cam Newton and generally ranks among the least accurate of all magazines in preseason predictions. Basically, Hub's credentials boil down to the fact that he was paid to watch a lot of Bears games from 1987-2004. I know plenty of people who did that for free and don't get to appear on seven radio shows a week for it. You know why you shouldn't take a fired color commentator too seriously? If you do, you get Matt Millen.

2) He was FIRED by the Bears, and no one ever seems to notice that this might influence his judgement. 

Sure, his "contract wasn't renewed" or whatever they used to make it sound mutual, but this was a man who obviously has reasons to harbor bitterness at the organization, and it's never even considered worth mentioning by the people who take him as gospel on all things Bears.

3) He's never changed his opinion on anything, and any wrong predictions he's made are rarely brought up. 

Earlier this year he said it was "too early" to give up on Blaine Gabbert while trashing Shea McClellin as a guy playing out of position. McClellin racked up another 2 hurries on Sunday, making him roughly 1000x more productive in his career to this point than a guy like Blaine Gabbert, but oh well, Hub says McClellin's a 3-4 backer and LOL at the Bears for thinking otherwise. When people ask why Hub's opinion of McClellin is so low, he says "watch the tape," as though no one else but him has access to NFL game film and others who do (like Pro Football Focus, a stats side used by actual front offices in decision-making, something I guarantee you no one's ever looked at Pro Football Weekly for, who consider Shea a plus pass rusher so far this year) completely disagree with his observations. His condescension for you, average Joe fan who CLEARLY hasn't seen THE TAPE (even if the All-22 package is available to guys like, oh, I don't know, me) is never-ending.

Point three brings me to the real reason Hub set me off today, which is

4) What the fuck is an elite team, Hub, and why should I trust your evaluation? 

I went over this a lot in 2010 when people said the Bears don't "seem" elite. At least in 2010 the Bears almost always won close games and had a relatively low point differential. The 2012 Bears are top ten in scoring, top two in scoring defense, top two in point and turnover differential, tops in takeaways, top ten in rushing, and top ten in total yardage allowed on defense. Their ranking in passing yardage is shitty, but can you honestly tell me there are that many teams out there who can claim that kind of resume to this point in the season?

This, of course, will lead to Hub's claim that the Bears haven't beaten anybody. Nevermind the fact it isn't like this team has come out of nowhere this year. They're  25-9 in their last 34 games with Cutler at quarterback and we're STILL supposed to believe a weak schedule is the only cause? Besides that, as other's have noted, the Bears, with one win over a team with a winning record (the Colts), aren't that far from the Giants (one win over a team with a winning record), the Falcons (one win), the Packers (two wins), the 49ers (two wins), the Texans (two wins) or any of the other teams just presumed to be elite. We'll put this question to rest in a few weeks anyway, but it's absurd to continue to act like the Bears are the only contender cruising through a soft schedule

All of this, is, again, besides my main point that the elite team argument is stupid almost every year. The average record of the last five Superbowl winners is 11-5. Very few of those teams were deemed to be "elite" in the middle of the regular season when history continually shows that simply gaining entrance to the postseason alone is all that matters.

Lastly, and I cannot emphasize this enough, Hub picked the fucking Chiefs to be the AFC's Superbowl representative this year. Are we really supposed to smile and nod along when he points out how the Bears are clearly a flawed contender? After That? Hell no.

So please, Chicago fans, radio hosts, weekly sports talk shows, and every one else, just know that every time I hear a sentence start with "well Hub Arkush said...." that you're basically saying "Here comes a healthy dose of old school, unquantifiable cliched bullshit with a strong, butthurted anti-Bears tinge."

Eat shit, Hub.

Insults for the Hearing Impaired: The Jay Cutler Story

 Another week, another hack writer shitting out a pointless column about Cutler’s performance on the sideline. This week, it’s Newberry-award winning author Dan Bernstein of CBS Chicago, though there’s a pretty awful Morrissey article I might get to later this week if I’m not too busy.

You know how we do, he’s in italics.

The “f—ing fans” sure sound different when the scoreboard changes, don’t they, Jay?

Usually, yeah. That’s kind of the point of the game, to change the scoreboard. If they sounded the same whether it changed or not, there’d either be total silence for 60 minutes or they’d all shout their lungs out.

Amazing how that happens in an NFL stadium, right? They boo you and your sloppy teammates after an inexcusable half of uninspired slop against an over-matched opponent, then cheer when you actually perform as if you know what you’re doing.

Teenage-girl sarcasm and overuse of the word “slop” aside, is there a point to this rambling, Dan? We know they had a bad first half. Cutler not only said the team had a bad first half, but took the blame for it. “It starts with me,” was the exact phrase he used. They won the game, and Cutler looked pretty Goddamn impressive when it counted the most.

Are you new to this whole idea?

We’re now 67 words into this column, which in total runs just under 600 words. Which means that a full tenth of this article has been Dan Bernstein attacking Jay cutler with the savagery only a stalwart LiveJournal user can bring to bear.

Bears 23, Panthers 22-- Holy Sh*t

In 2010 the Bears won a bunch of close games and every single week someone would utter that they "didn't deserve to win." It's become a running joke around these parts that the Bears are always 0-16 in the deserved to win standings. I've never accepted that. This is the NFL. Not all offensive and defensive schemes are built the same, and yardage totals, etc. are insignifcant. In this case...well, damn. The Panthers dominated the Bears in all three phases for 3 1/2 quarters and lost. Tough luck, guys. But once again, this is the NFL. No one's going to have sympathy for you.

The Bears were bloodied and bruised for most of the game. The offensive line couldn't pass-block against the most basic four man rushes for the entire first half. Jay looked hesitant, underthrew an interception, and held the ball too long on back-to-back sacks, including a fumble that set up Carolina's first touchdown. The receivers dropped five passes, including one absolutely brutal one by Spaeth that nearly killed me. The defense struggled to contain Newton and allowed the big plays for the first time all year. No one should act like aren't some reasons for concern, but....

...the Bears came back to win. They stopped allowing sacks. Mike Tice discovered the quick slant. Even when Carolina finally shut down the Bears run game (without Mike Tice shutting it down himself, of course, more on that later), they still found a way to move the ball. Cutler and Marshall hooked up several times on a game winning drive that left me thinking "man, this drive would have been 4 & out with forced passes to Johnny Knox and Devin Hester." Jay Cutler, a week after he should have silenced all of the bullshit about his lack of toughness once and for all, added to his reputation with three great late drives to win the game (sure, Robbie missed, but it was still a good drive). The defense finally made the kind of play we just expect them to make now, with Tim Jennings getting the franchise record 6th pick six of the year. When you look at the numbers and do the math, you'll be hard-pressed to figure out how the Bears won, but they did, and here they are at 6-1 on their way to Tennessee.

The Good:

Red Zone Defense: Hard to single out any member of the defense for consistently good play, since the Panthers moved the ball better than anyone has against this team so far, but the red zone defense kept the Bears in this game. Carolina had multiple opportunities to score the game-clinching touchdown and the defense stopped them every single time.

Tim Jennings: Added two interceptions for a career high six, and gave the Bears the lead late with his pick six. Love this guy. 

Jay Cutler: Everything was a disaster in the first half. Jay was hit (and yes, the interception is on him and so were 2 of the sacks, including the fumble) and sacked 6 times. He was just 4 of 9 in the first two quarters. Jay, however, bounced back. He overcame the sacks. He overcame the drops (five of them. Again. Five). In the final 17 minutes of the game he was 14/16 for 141 yds and a TD. He is, as Erik noted, the best 4th quarter passer in the league right now, and he won the game for the Bears.

Matt Forte: He had 61 yards on 8 carries in the first half. The problem with that is that he got EIGHT CARRIES IN THE FIRST HALF. Goddammit, Tice. Either way, Matt now has over 400 yards in his last three games against the Panthers.

The Bad:

Offensive Line: I'm not even sure who gets the blame for all of these. I've already put two of them on Cutler, and I believe Webb got beat for at least one sack in the first half. This kind of effort is just plain terrifying, since the offensive line seemed to be progressing really well before 11 sacks allowed in the last two weeks. Get it together.

Defensive Line: They got just two sacks and allowed Cam Newton to get outside several times. Not the kind of effort they needed to have to keep this offense in Check.

Mike Tice: What the hell, Mike? What the hell? Matt Forte was shredding the Panthers and Tice couldn't be bothered to run it more than twice in a row. If you want to have a truly great running game you have to commit to it, and you have to be willing to keep at it even on 2nd and 8. You certainly don't go empty backfield on second down when there's years of statistics showing that that formation is death under all circumstances for this team. Also, if you want to mix runs and passes, why the hell do you wait until the fourth quarter to throw in some goddamn slant passes? I know the drops aren't your fault and that broke up the rhythm, but if you didn't try to throw it downfield on every pass you might be more effective at moving the chains.

Drops: Again, five drops. Spaeth's was definitely the most brutal, but Hester's was terrible as well. Marshall made up his two with some huge catches late. The rest of you need to think about what you've done.

The Ugly:

Ron Rivera: why so serious? Who has watched Devin Hester this year and decided they need to be scared of him that you hand the Bears the ball at midfield on nearly every possession? Poor call, Ron.

Cam Newton's Critics: Oh man. Really? You're going to light into him for not running down to celebrate with Louis Murphy on a play where he actually was hurt? How stupid. Cam wasn't great today. He racked up a lot of yards downfield but his accuracy was spotty when it mattered and he had two bad interceptions, but he's clearly not the problem on this team.

That's all for now. Next week the Bears have to go down and face a not-terrible Titans squad on the road. They'll need to get it cleaned up and start playing four quarters of offensive football. They're certainly going to need it in the second half of the season. This is their chance to build that momentum.

Go Bears.

Prognostication Bukakke, NCAA Week 9

NC State @ North Carolina

Iggins!: This is the most ACC matchup yet. NC State just tried to lose to Maryland and UNC lost to Duke, made them bowl-eligible, and tore a hole in time-space. I’ll take North Carolina to win, because lord knows the ACC requires teams who lost to Duke to beat a decent ACC team the next week.

Code Red: I don’t want to pick UNC again. They’ve cost me a lot this year. Oh, dammit. UNC wins.

Mrs. Code Red: UNC wins.

#2 Florida vs. #10 Georgia

Code Red: Florida has gotten me this far. Their defense is very good. Maybe every bit as good as Alabama’s….but that offense. When I saw they beat South Carolina 44-11 I thought “good, finally some offense”...but they had 182 total yards, and SC just imploded with turnovers. Not sure they can score enough to win this one…but they haven’t failed me yet. Florida wins.

Iggins!: Florida wins are almost entirely responsible for how far back I am right now, but… man, if Georgia wins this game they have no competition left in the East. Their remaining games are jokes. I’ll take Georgia to win because I had them winning the East to start the year.

Mrs. Code Red: Georgia wins.

#14 Texas Tech @ #3 Kansas State

Iggins!: Tommy Tuberville has this thing where he beats top 5 teams. It actually seems to be the one thing he’s good at. But I’ll take the old warlock’s magic over Tuberville’s any day. K-State wins.

Code Red: It is, indeed, part of his dark arsenal. But I’m done betting against K-State. K-State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Kansas State.

#9 USC @ Arizona

Code Red: Seems like every week we get the Arizona or the Arizona State game in here and neither of ‘em ever wins. USC wins.

Iggins!: Yeah, but they’re both top 35 teams, so they keep being in the discussion. USC wins.

Mrs. Code Red: USC wins. 

 

Ohio State @ Penn State

Iggins!: So, this is the first time these two have played since 1996, AMIRIGHT?! Hehe… anyway. How sad is it that these are two of the remaining unbeaten teams in B1G play and neither will go to the title game? So sad. Penn State wins because Braxton got run over by the Madden ambulance and OSU has no defense.

Code Red: So much hatred. Ohio State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Are you sure I can't pick “neither?” It doesn't matter anyway, right? Ohio State.

Baylor @ Iowa State

Code Red: Iowa State, as usual, put up a valiant fight in OK State before losing. But Baylor is coming on strong with that offense. Baylor wins.

Iggins!: I think iowa State is favored in this game. That is never good for ISU. Baylor wins.

Mrs. Code Red: I'll roll with Iowa State. 

 

#5 Notre Dame @ #8 Oklahoma

Iggins!: Notre Dame is winning games like 2001 OSU. They keep almost losing over and over again. Also, Oklahoma likes to look really great for a few weeks then get stomped. I’ll take Notre Dame to win.

Code Red: You mean 2002 Ohio State, but close enough. It ends here. Oklahoma wins.

Iggins!: …yes. Yes I did.

Mrs. Code Red: Gonna go with Notre Dame. Because I'm Catholic? (ignores all of the previous times she picked against Notre Dame).

#22 Michigan @ Nebraska

Code Red: Oh God. Don’t do it. Don’t pick Nebraska in a huge game again….Nebraska.

Iggins!: On the other side of the coin, the only reason I’m still close this year is because you can’t stop picking UNC and Nebraska. Michigan wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Michigan, although I'm getting concerned about how often I'm aligning with that loser Iggins! this week. 

 

#11 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama

Iggins!: I want so badly to take MSU. But until they beat Bama or LSU, I can’t do it. Alabama wins.

Code Red: I’m not picking against Saban. That is a fool’s errand. Alabama wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Bama. Roll tide.

#7 Oregon State @ Washington

Code Red: Oregon State is just a damn good team. Mike Riley can coach. Oregon State wins.

Iggins!: Yup. The Civil War is going to be huge this year. Oregon State wins.

Mrs. Code Red: Step 1) Pick Oregon State. 2)?????? 3) Profit. Oregon State wins.

Prognostication Bukakke, NFL Week 8

NCAA

Mrs. Code Red: 46-24

Code Red: 45-25

Iggins!: 43-27

NFL

Code Red: 64-39

Mrs. Code Red: 62-41

Iggins!: 59-44

Overall:

Code Red: 109-64

Mrs. Code Red: 108-65

Iggins!: 102-71

Buccaneers @ Vikings

Code Red: The Buccaneers just haven’t impressed against any defense with a pulse. Vikings win, but winter is coming.

Iggins!: Stomping the Chiefs is a tad irrelevant. Vikings win.

Mrs. Code Red: I feel like I should pick the Buccaneers, but I can't. Vikings win.

Redskins @ Steelers

Iggins!: Steelers are bad, and though the Washington secondary is garbage I think RG3 scores enough to take this one. I mean… the Titans and Raiders beat Pittsburgh. Redskins win.

Code Red: Just can’t buy that the Steelers defense won’t be just that little ounce better than Washington’s necessary to win this game. Steelers win.

Mrs. Code Red: I don't want the Steelers to win. I hate them because they played the Patriots in the AFC Championship in 1996. I'm not even a Patriots fan anymore (my fathah is), but, you know, old hatreds die hard. Redskins win.

Seahawks @ Lions

Code Red: In Detroit? Lions win.

Iggins!: I’ll take the Lions to win, but this seems like another loss to me. Just playing it safe with Seattle away from home.

Mrs. Code Red: Lions win.

Panthers @ Bears

Iggins!: The Panthers have nothing of anything that can stop the Bears on either side of the ball, except for Cam, and a lone QB does not a good team make. Bears get that shutout, 34-0.

Code Red: The Bears defense is light years better than it was when these teams met up last year. The Bears offense is also much better. I’m hoping Cutler can make some big plays off of play-action this week. I’ll say Bears 30, Panthers 17.

Mrs. Code Red: Duh, Bears 30, Panthers 10.

Falcons @ Eagles

Code Red: Eagles are not great, but I feel like the Falcons have to drop sometime, and that Eagles secondary seems capable of giving them a bad day. Eagles win.

Iggins!: The Falcons look like they’re going to lose, then win. The Eagles look like they’re going to win, then lose. PUZZLE PIECES… CONNECT! Falcons win.

Mrs. Code Red: Michael Vick is in an abysmal spiral. Falcons win.

Patriots @ Rams

Iggins!: Upset special. New England is getting run through by NFC West teams, their defense is bleh, and the Ram defense is good enough to hold them to 21 or 24 points. Rams win.

Code Red: Well, I’ll be. Patriots win.

Mrs. Code Red: Patriots win. I don't hate them, you know.

Colts @ Titans

Code Red: Titans are actually coming around a little bit. Colts don’t travel well. Titans win.

Iggins!: Man, you’re just going to keep losing points picking against Indy, aren’t you? Colts win.

Mrs. Code Red: Frikkin' Colts. Not sure why I felt the need for such emphasis.

Chargers @ Browns

Iggins!: Norv finally seems to understand he needs to run Matthews a lot, and that should be enough, despite a fading Rivers, to beat Cleveland. Chargers win.

Code Red: But Brandon Weeden will once again be valiant in defeat! GODDAMMIT, GORDON. YOU DROPPED THE TD PASS THAT WOULD HAVE GIVEN ME MY UPSET LAST WEEK. Chargers win.

Mrs. Code Red: It's sad that I'm actually taking a moment to think about this. Chargers win.

Dolphins @ Jets

Code Red: Tough call. At home I’ll take the Jets.

Iggins!: Dolphins to take some revenge. The Jets got extremely lucky last go-around. Dolphins win.

Mrs. Code Red: Jets.

Jaguars @ Packers

Iggins!: Yeah… yeah. Packers win.

Code Red: The Packers defense is decimated by injuries right now and it’s just not going to matter. Packers win.

Mrs. Code Red: Guh. Packers.

Raiders @ Chiefs

Code Red: Rhymes with Lady now officially the starter. Chiefs fans hoping that it’s Matt Barkley next year. Raiders win.

Iggins!: Whatever the equivalent of “Suck for Luck” is for Barkley, that’s the Chief strategy right now. Raiders win.

Code Red: “Take a Steaming Shat for Matt”?

Mrs. Code Red: Oh...my God. Raiders?

Giants @ Cowboys

Iggins!: The Giants should be trying to save some face here since they got beat pretty good in week 1. Giants win.

Code Red: Cowboys actually tend to play really shitty at home. Giants are better on the road. Giants win.

Mrs. Code Red: Giants. I just don't like Tony Romo.

Code Red: I don't know. Given the way he played against the Bears I f*&king love the guy.

Saints @ Broncos

Code Red: Oh damn. This should be fun to watch, but you can’t bet on the Saints secondary to suck less than Denver’s. Broncos win.

Iggins!: Something tells me Breesus is going to pull this one out, but the comeback monster known as Peyton Manning tells me otherwise. Broncos win.

Mrs. Code Red: Broncos, most definitely.

49ers @ Cardinals

Iggins!: ESPN will try to tell you this is a game between two good teams. It is not. 49ers win.

Code Red: Based on what I gather from the general feeling, power-rankings wise, from around the internets: the 49ers, despite Alex Smith and their offense disappearing for long stretches and a defense that’s been less impressive than the Bears’ this year, are still better because they beat Green Bay in week one and losses to the Vikings and a 26-3 dismantling at home by the Giants are to be ignored. Otherwise they looked super-good dismantling the Bills. Meanwhile, the Bears basically have yet to be forgiven for losing a 13 pt game against Green Bay IN LAMBEAU. Guh. 49ers win.

Mrs. Code Red: If Kevin Kolb was healthy I might have been tempted to take the Cardinals. But he's not so I won't. 49ers win.