Those of you who read this site often know that there are certain quarterbacks that I frequently criticize, if for no other reason than the fact that I thought they'd suck before they ever even arrived in the NFL and continue to point out their suck at every available opportunity. Rico Mirerez is a notable example, but more recently I've spent a lot of time ragging on Blaine Gabbert.
Now I'm not going to pretend I'm alone in pointing out how much Blaine Gabbert sucks. Everyone's doing it because it's true and it's fun. That said, I've noticed many people still saying things like "it's too early for the Jaguars to give up on Gabbert." This group can range from usual simpletons like Hub Arkush, who of course thought Gabbert would be better than Cam Newton and says you can't judge Blaine yet after 19 starts (but who also all but dismisses Shea McClellin with a wanking motion despite his good production so far as a pass rushing specialist because Hub still totally told you he couldn't be a three down, run stuffing 4-3 end on a team that didn't draft him to do that and has no need for him to do so at the moment) to more scientific sources like Pro Football Focus. While the PFF guys do nothing to defend Gabbert's play, they still say it's "too early" to give up on him. Is it really?
The old standard for measuring a QB's progress was to give them three years. After three years the idea was that you knew what you had in a guy. Drew Brees was a notorious example of a guy who took three years to hit his stride. Even with quarterbacks like Roethlisberger, Flacco, Ryan, Newton, Dalton, RGIII, and Luck impressing from day one, the idea that you need to give some guys three years to develop holds some weight. I'm not going to disagree with this, but there's also a difference between waiting three years for a dynamic but inconsistent top prospect to flatten out his peaks and valleys and become a franchise guy and simply waiting for a guy like Gabbert to do something, anything, to justify his draft stock. It's not like Gabbert is a guy who has flashed a ton of potential and simply forces too many throws or takes too many risks. He's shown no measurable progress or any real potential for greatness. He's never had a 300 yard or 3 TD game. QB rating is a flawed stat, but even then Gabbert has had just 5 career starts with a passer rating of over 80, three of which were games where he had less than 20 pass attempts or 200 yards, or both.
My argument, then, is that the Jaguars should give up on Gabbert now because the likelihood that he'll develop into a reliable starting quarterback in the NFL is damn near miniscule. In order to prove this I've decided to compare Gabbert's stats to other quarterbacks taken in the 1st or 2nd round since 1999 in order to show what company Blaine is actually in.
The stat I've chosen to look at for this comparison is what Pro Football Reference calls "Adjusted Yards Per Attempt." Basically, this stat adjusts a player's YPA with bonuses for TDs and deductions for interceptions. After 19 career starts, Gabbert's AYPA sits at 4.9. The only two passers that managed an AYPA lower than that in their first years in the league? Alex Smith and Joey Harrington. The bottom five? JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Gabbert, Smith, and Harrington. Drew Brees, the poster boy for the three year model, had an AYPA of 5.28, but had also had four 300 yard games and several 3 TD games. Brees' had a regular YPA of 6.4 during that time period, and also averaged 10.8 YPC during that time, meaning he, unlike Gabbert (5.4 and 10.0 respectively) showed some proclivity for making big plays and had many more of the usual "young QB" struggles, rather than a sheer inability to run an NFL offense.
At this point, the Jaguars are basically banking that the best case scenario (and one could could argue that Alex Smith is a historical anomaly, given that few quarterbacks survive as many unproductive years and as many coaching changes as he has) is a 20% chance that Gabbert may one day be Alex Smith. The far more likely scenario is that he's Kyle Boller or JaMarcus Russell. The suck isn't just going to one day transform into something else. The Jaguars should move on now, just two years into the experiment. The Raiders did that with Russell, and I bet the Ravens wish they would have with Boller. Even a move to Chad Henne (AYPA through first 19 starts: 5.86) would be a better move for the franchise.
10 comments:
I know we've already talked about the Blaine Gabbert Fallacy, but what's really hilarious about the Jaguars' problem is that they had not one, but TWO former QBs in Garrard and Leftwich who were better than Blaine. Those two would cream their pants at the thought of throwing to Blackmon.
The sad thing is that a guy like Glabbert could be an okay NFL QB, but not as a rookie Starting Franchise Savior. He's bad, but part of that problem is that he's been thrown into a defunct franchise and has the weight of the team hanging on his shoulders. A guy like him needs a few years on the bench, catching snaps when the game is already won or lost and the pressure is off and doing work in the offseason. He needs time to concentrate on his technique and work on his form without also having to worry about winning or losing games. He'd never be a great QB, more than likely, but he could've been serviceable with the right circumstances.
We could make a list of how many rookie QBs were crushed by ridiculous standards. Players like Gabbert are a microcosm of everything that's wrong with GMs desperately looking for the next Franchise Player. Franchise Players like Bruce Smith, Walter Payton, and Dan Marino, players who have elite talent, athleticism, upside, AND instincts, are rare on an astronomical level.
Erik, I'ma let you finish, but Blaine Gabbert would never have been serviceable under any circumstances. The offense he ran at Missouri should hav eleft him with a 75% completion percentage in college and he didn't even hit 60%. In a goddamned west-coast spread. In college. His ceiling is Matt Cassel. That is not the ceiling you want.
On the other hand, Brees managing around 6 YPA through his first two years is a good case for letting a guy play into year 3. Brees' third year was fantastic. Makes you wonder if that's the amount of time in an offense it takes for a former college spread guy to adjust? Alex Smith has only just now had the chance to actually get into an offense, and he's looked much better this year. The Jags need to keep at it with Gabbert until some time next season just because there's no point in drafting ANOTHER QB so soon. They have plenty of holes. Fill the other ones, and if Gabbert sucks next year as well draft a QB then.
Oh and Brees actually regressed from his first full year of starting work to his second. How weird is that? I remember how freaked out I was that Brees would flame out. Drew at Purdue is what got me interested in college football as a kid. Before that I just watched the Bears (and the last few years of Jim Kelly with the Bills).
I actually rooted for Brees against Iowa. How fucked up is that?
I think the Jags should cut bait on Blaine after this year. They can start him for the rest of this year just to see if maybe something will happen, but if they are not already drafting up plans for a potential future without him they're damn fools.
They can even have him on the roster next year, but they have to bring in a legit competitor and be willing to actually start him if Gabbert shows no improvement. Not a Sanchez situation where they bring in Tebow to "fire him up" but won't actually start him over Sanchez. My argument is basically that they should start moving away from building the franchise around him, because it ain't gonna happen.
Oh yeah, they should bring in a capable veteran. Like, I don't know... David Garrard? God I hate Jacksonville. They drafted a low-rent version of David Garrard to replace David Garrard.
Or, as I said, they should give Henne a look. Henne's at least had legitimate flashes of competence. Is he likely to turn into a star? No. But he'd be better than Gabbert and at least HE, unlike Blaine, has shown that the potential really Is there. Gabbert is amazing. Other than a half decent, 260 yard, 2 TD game against the Vikings in the opener, he really has gone 19 games without so much as one "wow" moment.
They should be careful, though, even Blaine Gabbert would be better than getting a QB who was grumpy on the sidelines.
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