Bears 27, Raiders 3- BEST MEANINGLESS HALF OF FOOTBALL EVAR

Tomorrow the columns will come. Oh lawd, will they come. They will smarm and snicker, they will laugh at you for having the unmitigated GALL for getting excited based on the Bears starters putting on a clinic on both sides of the ball. "Tis the preseason!" they will shout. "'Tis the woeful Raiders!" they will cry. They will do this while ignoring that they spent the last week making comments about Cutler favoring Brandon Marshall too much or claiming his interception is proof he won't make the reads necessary to fit Trestman's offense, because the preseason only matters when they say it does.

The truth is this: there's probably not too much we saw tonight that we can use to predict regular season performance. Even garbage teams (and my God, these Raiders are terrible) will rarely roll over for 27 points in the first half. That said, it's worth noting that the Bears offenses of previous seasons have rarely blown anyone away even in the exhibition slate, and the offensive line especially has struggled to keep Jay upright even against some rather lackluster competition. They did both tonight, and dammit, let no one begrudge you of your right to feel modestly optimistic that maybe the offense won't suck eggs for once.

To the breakdown:

The Good:

The Offensive Line: Jay dropped back 21 times and was never sacked. The only time he was even touched came on a bad snap, and they committed just one penalty. Forte and Bush rushed for a combined 13 rushes for 97 YDs and 2 TDs in the first half, which averages out to 7.5 yards per rush, and 4.8 yards per rush if you're using the Hub Arkush metric and automatically discounting the longest run of the game because it gets in the way of your argument. I don't know if Kyle Long was as dominant as he was last week, but he and Mills were both mostly flawless in pass protection and the Bears gained positive yards almost every time they ran to their side. It seems like the kids will be there on opening day, so it's good to see that they at least seem to be something other than awful.

The Defense: Matt Flynn is terrible and I will maintain that opinion to the grave, but it's still comforting to see the Bears hold a shit offense to just 3 pts (on a freaking massive kick from Sebastian Janikowski, nonetheless) and less than 100 yards of offense. In roughly twelve drives this preseason, the Bears starting defense has allowed just 3 points and forced five turnovers. Again, it's the preseason, but it's better than the alternative.

Jay Cutler: The statsheet will say he was 12/21, but he suffered six drops and missed on just three attempts. He was spot on all night, made great decisions, distributed the ball well, and for the first time all preseason worked in some deep balls and some intermediate throws. This will be his final action of the preseason, and he finished 22/34 (64.7%) for 236 yds (7.0 YPA), 2 TDs, 2 INTs, and an 80.0 rating. None of those numbers is particularly impressive, but they'd have been a lot better without the drops tonight and the pick against Carolina that came from Alshon's mistake. The first team offense under Cutler scored 41 points in 13 drives. If there's anything to take from those numbers, it's that if Jay can keep the completion % high and keep drives alive to allow the Bears to use Forte as often as possible, the team will score a lot of points.

Matt Forte: Make no mistake about it folks, for all of the talk about this being Jay's big year, and even though the Bears will undoubtedly throw the ball more than they ever have in the Cutler Era, the success of this offense still depends on Matt Forte. Trestman gets that. Tice tried to get it, but he wrongfully assumed that meant using Forte as the basis of a power offense. Trestman knows that you can run an offense through a runningback by throwing to him as well, and Forte showed what he can do on his 32 yard TD catch on a simple swing route. Charlie Garner caught 91 passes under Trestman in 2002. Forte should be licking his chops. Not to say that he'll be under-used as a runner, considering he's run it 14 times for 150 yds in the last two games.

Alshon Jeffery: I don't know if Jeffery will ever run anything that isn't a slant route all year long. He may not have to. It's working well so far, as he had 7 catches for 77 yards, almost all on slants. I just hope he can stay healthy, because he and Marshall can really be something special together.

The Bad:

Brandon Marshall: Not his night. No need to say anymore, he's roughly 950th on my list of concerns about the Bears offense, but yeah....couple of really bad drops. Oh well. Brandon Marshall is awesome.

Fendi Onobun: For anyone who misses Kellen Davis, Fendi seems more than willing to fill the role of athletic tight end who does everything but actually catch the goddamn ball. The sad thing is he might still make the roster, because the depth at tight end behind Marty B is....uninspiring. God damn you, Evan Rodriguez.

J'Marcus Webb: He didn't really play horribly, but another holding penalty was the last thing he needed with his roster spot as tenuous as it can be. For as much as I've been hard on the guy all offseason, he still has more upside than a guy like Jon Scott, but he's done himself no favors as far as convincing the coaching staff.

That's all for now. I won't be doing a recap next week, because the fourth preseason game is garbage, but I look forward to seeing you all in a few weeks when things actually matter. Hopefully we'll see a Bears offense that looks at least somewhat like the one we saw in the first half tonight. Either way, real football is near and there's a lot of reason to be excited. Go Bears.

Bits and Bites, Preseason Game 2

I apologize for the tardiness of this article, near as we are to the third game of the preseason. But I’ve been very busy this week and Kyle kept posting shit all the time. An orderly posting schedule is important to me, so I’ve left it this late.

Anyway, there were a lot of things to talk about concerning the Bears-Chargers game last week, and since the SKOdcast got moved we haven’t really talked about them much. I knew I’d find gold in the media reaction to the game, but when I got there I found something that I have never found before: there are too many stupid columns for me to do them all. Three stuck out in particular.

So I thought this was a good time to bring out an idea I had tossed around last year but never really moved on. There’s really one particular argument that irks me about any given story, and then I go back and make fun of the rest of it. But I figured I’d just take that one argument from those three columns and talk about it at greater length. Kyle must be rubbing off on me.

And so, without further ado, the first edition of Bits and Bites.

Does Cutler Target Marshall Too Much?

It's a common refrain among Bears fans, media, and the usual Cutler critics that Jay targets Brandon Marshall too much. This seems a pretty fair assessment when you consider that Marshall represented over 40% of the Bears targets last year, and 46% of their total passing yardage last year. Add in the fact that Jay targeted Marshall on all 5 of his passes in the second preseason game last week, and the fear remains that Phil Emery's big offseason addition of Martellus Bennett, or the continued development of Alshon Jeffery, is all for naught: Jay will continue to look Brandon's way on every play.

Is this true? Well, the overall numbers from 2012 certainly support this hypothesis, as I said above. I think the truth, however, isn't quite as bad as many people think.

 For one, when Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler were together in Denver from 2007-2008, Jay attempted over 1083 passes, and completed 681 of them. Unfortunately, targeting data is unavailable from those years, but we do know that Marshall came down with 206 of those passes. That means Marshall accounted for roughly 30% of Jay's completions, a fairly standard number for a number one receiver, and well below the 41% of Bears completions that Marshall accounted for last year.

I can feel Iggins! eyes rolling as I've brought up the 2007-2008 Broncos again, but they're not really the crux of my argument. That was merely to establish that 30% of targets or total completions for a #1 receiver is a fairly healthy #. Consider that Tom Brady's top target last year, Wes Welker, got 27.5% of Brady's targets and 29% of Brady's completions in a much-more diverse offense than whatever the hell it was Mike Tice thought he was doing last year.

There are two things to consider when arguing that Jay targeted Brandon too much last year: injuries and incompetence, the former in terms of Earl Bennet and Alshon Jeffery, and the latter notably in the form of two individuals named Kellen Davis and Devin Hester. In the first two games last year when Jay had his entire depth chart to throw to (Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, Hester, Forte, and Davis), Marshall accounted for 32% of Jay's targets and 34% of his completions. Slightly higher than their old numbers in Denver, but still reasonable.

In week three, Matt Forte was out with an injury, the first of the year for the offense, but Jay still distributed the ball fairly evenly, targeting Marshall on 11 of his 31 passes while targeting Jeffery on 7, Bennett, Hester, and Davis on 9 total, and Bush on 4.

Week four, however, is where the trouble started. Earl Bennett missed the game with an injury, and Jay targeted Hester and Davis with a combined eight passes, while targeting Marshall with eight as well. Marshall caught seven of his eight targets, while Hester and Davis caught 6/8. Balance was good, everyone was happy.

Over the next eight games, however, either Bennett or Jeffery (and sometimes both) were out of the lineup. In that time, with Hester and Davis now serving as two of Jay's top four targets, Marshall's target % shot all the way up 47.5%. The reason? Well my theory is that it had something to do with Davis catching a very mediocre 8 of 19 targets (42% catch rate, and I know you're thinking "holy shit, was it ever that high?") while Hester, who, to his credit, caught 13 of 20 balls, racked up just a mediocre 11 yards a catch in that span and had several absolutely brutal drops. Compared with the absolutely masterful performance of Marshall in that time period (he caught an absurd 63% of those targets while averaging 12.4 YPC, in case you needed me to remind you that Brandon Marshall is fucking awesome), it makes sense that Jay said "to hell with balance."  By the end of the season, the ineptitude of Hester and Davis led Jay to simply ignore them, as the two of them combined for just two targets in the last three games.

It's worth noting that Forte's % of Jay's targets remained pretty consistent throughout the season at about 12% (which is too damn low, but I think we all know Tice is to blame for that more than Jay), and that in the five games where Jay had all three of his top three wideouts, he targeted the Jeffery and Bennett duo (39%) just as often as he did Marshall (39%).

So does Jay target Marshall too much? It's hard to say that when it works so damn well. It's pretty clear that for the Bears to have a healthy passing game in 2013, however, he is going to have to spread the ball around. I don't think it's fundamentally against Jay's nature to do so. He did it quite well in Denver, and he was always pretty even-handed with all of his shitty receivers in the years before Marshall came to Chicago, so I think he's capable of it. I just think crucifying him based on last year seems a bit harsh, since he clearly started with good intentions and the stats show that he was more than willing to throw to people who weren't Kellen Davis and Devin Hester.

The key for balance in 2013, then, is not some fundamental change in Jay's approach, as some have suggested, so much as it is important that his other receivers stay healthy, his tight end maybe try catching more than one out of every three passes thrown his way, and Marc Trestman hopefully understanding that Matt Forte can do some beautiful things downfield if you let him try.

The SKOdCast is Temporarily Moving!

Hello folks. We will still have a SKOdCast this week but due to a change in my work schedule we'll be bringing you the truth at 6:15 PM SUNDAY night. We will see you then as we go crazy trying to cram in two weeks worth of preseason reactions into one podcast!

As always, you can find it here: http://talkshoe.com/tc/127741

Opinionating: Ten Thoughts on the Bears and Beyond

You know I haven't written one of my long, stat-filled monologues lately, and it's because I've had a number of thoughts that seemed too incomplete for a full post but too irrelevant to mention or expound upon in the podcast, so I've kind of just held onto them. As an egotistical windbag, however, I think, in the tradition of talking heads like Peter King, I'll start a new semi-regular feature with my ten thoughts of the moment on the Bears and the rest of the NFL. Some of these have logic and reason to them, others do not. So here we go.

1. Jon Bostic would be my starter at MLB in week one whether DJ Williams was healthy or not. I'm not one to overrate a couple of big plays. A simple pick six and a massive hit aren't enough to blind me to Bostic's weaknesses in coverage and the fact that he overruns plays. That said, people who remember DJ Williams as some kind of good middle linebacker are remembering a myth. I realize he has name recognition and once led the league in the ridiculously overrated statistic of tackles, but he has generally played better in his career at OLB and has never been a consistent coverage guy in the middle. If we're picking between two guys who will rack up a bunch of tackles and occasionally get embarrassed in coverage, I'll take the kid who might develop into something.

2. It's early and it's guaranteed they will all struggle to some extent at some point, but if Long, Bostic, Mills, Jeffery, McClellin, and Frey all start or contribute heavily in their first and second years, Emery's first two draft classes would already put much of Angelo's last half-decade to shame. They don't even necessarily have to be that good, the mere fact that they're going to set foot on the field trumps Angelo's classes of non-entities like Jarron Gilbert, Michael Okwo, Dan Bazuin, and Juaquin Iglesias.

3. With Emery's willingness to change 4/5 starters on a bad offensive line in offseason, despite limited cap space, you start to question all of Angelo's "we like our guys" and "good offensive linemen are hard to find" excuses for his failure to do the same.

4. I think people who expect Jay to have that "breakout season" are somewhat mistaken. I think Jay will probably just look a lot more like that guy in Denver we thought we were getting. That's good with me. If Jay can just move the ball, he has two things in Matt Forte and an actual defense that he didn't have in Denver that I think can make all the difference.

5. I am starting to have serious doubts about the future of Earl Bennett's career. This saddens me greatly, but there are enough young guys in camp who have done something this offseason to make you wonder how long Earl's spot is guaranteed. Part of me wonders if they might put him on the PUP if his concussion lingers, and give Anderson or Wilson six weeks to impress them.

6. I still don't think EJ Manuel will be good in the NFL. I don't see why the Bills would bother with starting Kevin Kolb in front of him, anyway. There's enough talent on the Bills offense that I don't think they'd be throwing Manuel to the wolves. Might as well see what he can do.

7. I still think the Ravens win the AFC North. Much like people are overreacting to the Bears losing Urlacher, many of the players the Ravens lost weren't actually that good, and they've made some solid upgrades with less-notable names. Also, considering the alternative is expecting the Bengals to improve for a third straight year, I'm hesitant to pull the trigger there.

8. I can't predict the NFC South to save my ass. I could see any team in that damn division going 6-10 or 11-5. Except maybe Tampa. My faith in Josh Freeman isn't terribly high, largely because I think Greg Schiano hates him.For what it's worth, I hate Greg Schiano.

9. I'd be legitimately afraid of the young talent the Vikings are accumulating, were it not for the fact that Christian Ponder is their QB. You get the feeling they'll finally move on from that mistake right as Peterson's legs disintigrate and the change won't make any difference anymore.

10. He's a total ass, but I feel kind of bad for Philip Rivers. He's going to die this year. That team is garbage.

Bears 20, Chargers 7 (Because the Recaps Stop When the Starters Do)

Tonight the Bears first-team offense came in with a lot to prove, if you're Hub Arkush, and were otherwise playing in a meaningless game according to everyone sane. Nonetheless, they performed well, with a few rather glaring mistakes in the form of two sacks and a brutal INT. Despite those hiccups that ruined two drives, two other drives ended with touchdowns thanks to a combination of some excellent run-blocking and a Chargers defense courteous enough to leave Marshall single-covered on four of his five targets (guess which one was the interception!). Trestman decided to pull the starters on a high note, so their night ended after four drives.

On defense, turnovers are still the story, with the team generating eight of them so far this preseason along with four sacks. The usual caveat that the preseason means nothing aside, this still looks like a Lovie Smith defense.

Finally, the big story of the night was the two rookies on the right side of the offensive line, and they certainly impressed. I'll discuss this more in the breakdown, so onto the specifics:

The Good:

Kyle Long: Holy shit, this kid is strong. He'll make his fair share of mistakes this year, and his technique is raw, but you saw tonight why Emery believes in him so strongly: he's a goddamn animal. He was demolishing in both pass protection and the run game, and paved the way for much of the Bears success to his side of the field. He finished last week against Carolina with a +2.3 grade from Pro Football Focus and a nice spot at the top of the depth chart, tonight he showed everyone he's here to stay.

Jordan Mills: He wasn't as dominant as Long, and Long certainly seemed to be the greater contributor in the run game, but Mills held his own in pass protection, got some push in the run game, and made no mistakes. If he can repeat this performance next week he'll for sure be the guy in week one, and J'Marcus Webb should be very, very frightened.

Brandon Marshall: He missed last week, but his presence was impossible to ignore this week as he caught a pass to convert a 3rd down on the Bears second drive, then followed it up with a TD reception where he schooled an over-matched DB.

Matt Forte: He can still scoot. He got two great blocks from Jeffery and Bushrod to spring him on his 58 yard run, but he still gets credit for turning on the second gear and bolting away. As long as the offense starts with him, run or pass, good things will happen.

Jon Bostic: He's still making plays. He absolutely killed a man to break up a pass (and it probably should have been ruled a fumble), and he's done nothing to give anyone doubts about starting him week one. He got turned around on a touchdown pass again, but overall he's farther along than we could have expected. It was a good night for Phil Emery's 2013 draft class.

Marc Trestman: I assume we'll probably see a few attempts at going deep in game 3, or maybe he's saving those for the real deal, but so far I am pleased with the vanilla version of his offense. They led with the run tonight, moved the ball with bootlegs and controlled passes, and attacked all sides of the field. Still, I'd like to see them work in Martellus Bennett and Alshon Jeffery more next week.

The Bad:

That Interception: I'm not putting Jay entirely in the bad category, he was 4/5 and had a TD pass and a 98.3 rating (so far this preseason he's 10/13, so, ACCURACY ISSUES TOTALLY FIXED GUYS), and even though some have criticized him for over-targeting Marshall, he was right to do so on the four completions, because Marshall was single covered. On the interception, however, he overreacted to pressure and forced it into double coverage to Marshall. It was exactly the kind of thing you'd hope to see him avoid, considering he's supposed to have other guys he can look to when he's under pressure this year. Last week's INT wasn't on him, but this one was entirely his fault. He also held onto the ball too long on the second sack of the night, but it was 3rd and 18 so he didn't exactly screw anyone but himself by taking a sack instead of throwing it away. Play smarter, Jay.

That's really all I have in the negative column. I was pleased with tonight's performance, mostly because no one got hurt. The only real takeaway that matters is that Mills and Long did nothing to dissuade Trestman from giving them another week in the starting lineup. Wouldn't it just be the damnedest thing if the Bears drafted not one, but TWO competent linemen? Oh, what a fevered dream that is.

That's all for now. Go Bears.

The Entire Start Kyle Orton Offseason, in One Convenient Place!

First of all, I want to remind everyone that we'll be in the Shoutbox tonight during the game, so feel free to drop in and overreact to a meaningless game with us. 

Second of all, it occurred to me that many of you may have been watching the Blackhawks and doing things with your lives after the end of last season, and may have missed many of our reactions and takes on the various Bears topics that occurred since the end of last season; so I figured I'd collect them all for you in a neat package. Here’s everything important we wrote before July, when you probably started actually caring about the Bears. And don't forget to check the SKOdcast archives, either here or on iTunes for any episodes you may have missed.

The Lovie Firing:

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/01/for-record-lovie-sads-and-whats-next.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/01/lovie-we-hardly-knew-ye-we-will-drown.html

The Trestman Hiring (AKA Iggins! panics over hiring a CFL coach, although he's mostly calmed down since then):

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/01/for-record-blame-canada-edition.html

Free Agent Frenzy:

 http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/03/me-and-marty-b-bears-free-agency-so-far.html

The End of the Urlacher Era:

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/03/goodbye-brian.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/03/sko-vs-telander-4-pastening.html

Trestman’s Offense and Speculation:

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/04/mike-martz-mike-tice-and-myth-of.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/04/schemin-marc-trestman.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-read-option-pistol-and-spread-are.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/04/can-tim-tebow-be-fixed-what-about-jay.html

Draft Madness (What We Thought, and What Erik Thought About What Rick Morrissey Thought):

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/04/rick-morrisseys-first-annual-pre-draft.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/04/2013-bears-draft-talent-trumps-all.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/05/let-me-first-take-this-opportunity-to_1.html

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/05/people-i-hate-you-if-youre-still.html

Iggins! Exposes the Lies of the Offseason:

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-dead-period-home-stretch-how-to.html

Feeling Good about Phil Emery and Marc Trestman:

http://www.startkyleorton.blogspot.com/2013/06/moneybears-phil-emery-marc-trestman-and.html

Episode 13 of the SKOdCast is Now Up!

SKOdcast Episode 13: Returning to the return of the last time we returned to Thunderdome: Exodus!

On tonight's episode we'll discuss last week's game, J'Marcus/Jordan Mills, my unabiding passion for Marquess Wilson, Jamaal Charles fear, and probably killer robots.

LINK ME BABY

Iggins! interviews ESPN Chicago, Preseason Game 1

Welcome, loyal SKOfans, to the first in a (hopefully) long series of interviews with a true titan in the industry, ESPN Chicago. It is a true honor and priviledge to be able to gain additional insight into what we see on the television through people who a-

DID YOU SEE THE J'MARCUS SACK?!?!?!

Er... I thought I was going to be interviewing someone FROM ESPN Chicago? Like, Wright or Dickerson? Who... who are you?

Bears-Panthers Notes (On the Parts that Sorta Mattered, but Not Really)

I said on the podcast this week that I fully expected a Cutler interception on the first series that would cause the usual fits of hysteria and naysaying, and Jay did not disappoint. Sure, old fuddy-duddy Jim Miller had to correctly point out that Alshon cut off his crossing route and was at fault, but since when has that ever mattered? Bears football is back, and there's no better way to announce that than a deflating interception.

Anyways, it's a Friday night and I have better things to do than watch Josh McCown, so here's the brief recap:

The Good:

The Offense: With a big O, I'm not referring to performance so much as the tiny glimpses of Trestman's philosophy that we saw. Shotgun formation early and often, but never of the suicidal empty-backfield variety, lots of Trips WR sets with Martellus moving around the field. Short drops. Quick decisions. Also nice to see them feature the backs in the passing game right away. The things we've been hoping for for years.

Jon Bostic: He was beat in coverage on the Panthers first touchdown, but he recovered nicely with good pursuit in the run game and beautiful coverage leading to an interception. I bear DJ Williams no ill will, but it would be nice to see a rookie start and produce immediately.

Secondary: Tight coverage by Jennings and Tillman for the most part, with a couple of nice pass breakups. Presumptive nickelback Frey had a nice pass deflection that should have been a pick-six as well.

Jay Cutler: The interception was not his fault, and he looked fairly comfortable. The ball came out quickly, and he ended 6/8 for 56 yards (7.0), and he threw the ball away when he needed to.


The Bad:

J'Marcus Webb: Don't want to overreact to one play, but it's all we've got so far, and that sack killed an otherwise promising drive.

Defensive line: Not much in the way of penetration, and Nate Collins especially seemed to be taken out fairly easily in the run game.


 Injuries: Not good to see Melton go down for any length of time.


That's all for now. Tune in to the SKOdCast Tuesday as we make sure to FREAK THE F*&K OUT OVER EVERYTHING. Or something.

Go Bears.

The Dumbest Thing I've Ever Read

We've all spoken at length about the tendency of reporters to fill the preseason with empty conjecture and pointless speculation. I've done more than my fair share of mockery of exactly those things. But let's be honest: that's just the way it has to be. They can't not report on team happenings, but nothing really worth talking about is guaranteed to happen. So sometimes they have to dig pretty deep to even find something they can write an article about. 

I'll mock them for doing it poorly, but I get it. You've gotta report on something, but there's nothing really to report on.

Then there's this. On Tuesday, as everyone in Illinois knows, we got our monthly test of the tornado siren system. I don't know if it's the same way in every state and I can't be bothered to look, but this is something that has happened in Illinois literally every first Tuesday of every month I've been alive. 

Enter Tom Musick, a man who somehow wound up working under Hub Arkush. In terms of sportswriter career progression, this is pretty much the version of giving a defeated sigh and agreeing to do an Uwe Boll movie. I used to wonder how Hub even got these guys to come work for him, in fact I believe there is audio evidence of me wondering that exact thing in episode 11 of the SKOdcast.

But after today, I know exactly how. This piece is called "Siren Fails to Slow Down Bears." And it is literally the dumbest thing, Bears-related or otherwise, that I have ever read. In it, Musick marvels at the fact that a routine test of the state's tornado warning sirens did not cause the Bears practice to break down into a screaming orgy of confused violence.

I just... I don't even know where to begin. I'm sorry, Italics, but you must bear the burden of his words.

Episode 12 of the SKOdCast is Now Up:

In which we discuss ACL tears and Kintaro of Mortal Kombat II fame:

Episode 12: The SKOdcast Cometh

Greetings, friends! Now that there's football in our lives again, we're working back toward a weekly episode of the SKOdcast. Join us tonight at 6:15 central as we talk more training camp: the hip new injury craze all the kids are trying, position battles, the ongoing odyssey of the Futtbumbler and more!

Well, maybe more. Those are the only three things on the docket. But we might discuss more than that. We usually end up going on tangents. But you get what I'm saying.

LINK ME

Episode 11 of the SKOdCast is Now Up!

SKOdcast 11: The Reckoning

Join us tonight at 6:15 for episode 11 of the SKOdcast, in which Red and I take on training camp rumors, Hub Arkush's new epicenter of stupid and so on, without Iggins because he's doing some farm thing for his birthday. Or something like that, it wasn't really made clear to me.

The Chicago Sun-Times, the Gift That Keeps on Giving

You know when I said in last week's column that the hack writers would come out firing, I didn't realize that I was going to be handed a twofer by the Intrepid Ricks of the Sun-Times.

Not to be outdone by Telander's vague ramblings and misapplied talents, Morrissey stepped up to the plate to remind us all that you can never be sad if you just don't hope for anything. Don't let the title "MORRISEY: Bears look like an 8-8 team" fool you. This column is not about the Bears. This is about Rick Morrissey's inability to feel joy until at last an intrepid adventurer returns the Casket to its ancient home.

As is our custom, Rick will be in italics.

The Further Adventures of Ace Reporter Rick Telander: At This Point, It's Almost Impressive

As the sun rises on a world that is once again warmed by the presence of football, so too do we who talk about the Bears rise from our ancient slumbers. Rejuvenated by the healing rays of training camp, we seek out fresh news. Even throughout the offseason, I'll admit that I checked the big sites almost daily in the hope of fresh news. Seeing as you're reading this, I assume that you too care about Bears news.

And so we turn to the reporters. Those who can swing by training camp every day. Those with access to players and coaches. And they come out of their caves firing; making wild conjectures about the most simple training camp occurrences and laying down bold predictions for the entire season based on an errant pass or stiff exchange between players.

This year is no exception. In fact, furious over the death of his beloved Pro Football Weekly, our ancient nemesis Hub Arkush launched his very own website more or less dedicated to overreacting to Bears news. And I fully intended to bring you a fresh offering from him today.

But as is his wont, Rick Telander just will not go down without a fight. Where there is baseless conjecture to be made, they say he will never fail to appear. In our direst need for totally irrelevant and almost certainly inaccurate coverage, he comes forth into the light. And so, Hub must wait. For Telander has spoken.

Oh My God, It's Getting Closer

I woke up this morning in a damn good mood. You know why? Because Bears training camp starts this week, with players beginning to arrive today. Now, I'm not crazy about reading the news articles related to camp (ZOMG. DOES JAY CUTLER HAVE A LOT TO PROVE THIS YEAR? NO WAY and OH MAN IT IS SO WEIRD WITHOUT URLACHER HERE INNIT), but I am glad that football is starting. From the moment that first practice snap occurs football once more ascends to the top of the ladder of our national interest, we can all keep pretending baseball doesn't exist, and we can begin our breathless countdown to a preseason game that we'll stop watching after the starters leave by the third series. Most importantly, we can overreact to all of these things listed above. It's a great time to be alive.

Bears camp has been a pretty hot topic most of the last few years, with the arrival of Cutler in 2009, the signing of Julius Peppers in 2010, and the Marshall/Jeffery acquisitions of 2012 providing yearly buzz along with the seventeen or eighteen different offensive coordinators used in that time period. This year, however, takes the cake, with the following overplayed storylines sure to dominate:

1) Jay Cutler. Frankly, based on the way this offseason has gone with regards to Cutler columns, I hope Jay has changed his license plate to "NO XCUZ'S", because that's the unofficial motto of his 2013 campaign. Never mind that we've yet to see if any of the additions to the offensive line can play, or if his wide receivers can actually stay healthy for once, or whether Marc Trestman still knows how to call an NFL offense. The additions of Martellus Bennet and Jermon Bushrod mean that Jay's now guiding an offense equivalent to the 1999 Rams and anything shy of that vague and nebulous concept of an elite season he's been haunted by will result in him being run out of town on a rail.

This is bullshit, of course. Jay Cutler has to be better than every other quarterback on the market next year. Unless you're really fond of the Ryan Fitzpatrick's of the world or you're foolish enough to think Emery and Trestman are willing to sacrifice good chunks of the prime years of Marshall, Forte, etc. to build around a rookie QB next year, that's not going to be hard for Jay to do. It's likely all Jay has to do to get an extension is survive 16 games without a major injury. What he hopes to determine with his play this year is how much money that extension will pay him.

2) Urlacher. Leadership. Identity. Lost. Scared (Related: How does Jon Bostic/DJ Williams/James Anderson feel stepping into Urlacher's shoes, besides the uncomfortable burning on their feet?).  Some combination of those words will be used in a number of stories about how odd it is for the team to get together without Urlacher. Most of these are just recycled articles from 2011 because it's easy to use a find and replace to switch "Olin Kreutz" for Brian Urlacher. In the end, the transition will be as relatively easy as that one was because players are not that stupid, and they tend to accept the guy who can play football over the guy who no longer could.

3)Meet the New Boss, He's Weird as Shit and has a Bad Combover. Marc Trestman's a weird dude.  I tried reading his book. In the intro his ghostwriter says "Marc and I realized we basically had content for two books, one about strategy and X's and O's, and one about bullshit coaching cliches and maybe a mention or two of God" (I may have loosely paraphrased there). Much to my chagrin, the book was a collection of weird, empty coaching patois instead of the insight into his offense I was hoping for. Long story short, Trestman is odd. He just escaped from Canada, for fuck's sake. That'll change a man. He's going to do things differently than Lovie, and many things, positive and negative, will be said about this. We have no idea of measuring whether his weirdness means anything until the games matter, however, so just ignore Dan Bernstein on this one.

4) Kyle Long Did (X) Today. This one's actually kind of interesting. It'll be worth noting whether Long looks absolutely lost or not given his concerning lack of experience in college. That said, Gabe Carimi was the star of two consecutive training camps so take all of this with a grain of salt.

5) Contract Extensions. Jay. Tillman. Melton. Jennings. These guys are on the last years of their deal. It stands to reason that Emery, the general manager, is aware of this fact. He will still get asked 75 questions a day about it like he's fucking blind, and someone (probably Telander) seems to think they will eventually get Phil to say "Holy shit, dude. Not sure how I missed that. I'll get right on it." Never mind that there are roughly 80 ways that NFL contracts are skewed in favor of teams retaining players, and that the absolutely earliest that any of these situations would actually be problematic is next fucking March, this will be treated as some kind of massive dark cloud hanging over everyone.

6) Josh Lenz. I don't know whether this guy will be overrated or not. But he's fast, scrappy, white, and went to Iowa State, so...well, yes. He's going to be overrated. Ignore anything you hear about him.

That said, enjoy this day. Bear football is now a light at the end of this miserable offseason tunnel. We're getting close. Go Bears.

Episode 10 of the SKOdCast Now Up!

Podcast Tonight at 6:15 PM

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741

Listen Live as we discuss:

-What a Director of Analytics is, and why it's a good thing
-Stupid shit Bears and NFL coaches do that we hope will go away.
-Erik's hilariously failed attempt at defending the honor of Aaron Hernandez.
-Goddammit, Bears Fans.

SKOdcast Episode 9: Tourney Final and Chicago Sports Outlook

In tonight's episode we finish the tournament and discuss the current Chicago sports outlook. We also somehow weasel Anne Frank, Roman Polanski, and further discussions on Chris (OR IS HE?!) Long into there. Check it out on iTunes and leave a review! Enjoy!

MoneyBears? Phil Emery, Marc Trestman, and the Evolution of the Bears Organization

The Chicago Bears entered the twentieth century in 1974. That was the year they hired Jim Finks, the General Manager and architect of the Minnesota Vikings 11 division titles and 4 Super Bowl appearances in 14 years. In his first draft Finks brought in Walter Payton. He was the one that drafted Doug Plank, Mike Hartenstine, Dan Hampton, and many others who formed the backbone of the successful Bears teams of the 80s. He oversaw the hiring of Buddy Ryan. Under his guidance the Bears made the playoffs in 1977 and 1979, breaking a postseason drought going back to 1963.

More important than all of this, however, was that Finks was the first person to run the Bears that wasn't part of the Halas/McCaskey family tree. The Bears had been surpassed in the division they used to rule by the Vikings, and it wasn't even close. Driven to desperation by a decade of futility, George Halas loosened the reins of control, and the result was the resurrection of the franchise.

Then, in 1982, Mike Ditka wrote George Halas a nice letter asking if he could be the head coach of the Bears. Without consulting his GM, Halas hired Ditka. Finks responded as any GM who had just been publicly neutered would: he walked away. Personnel control went to Jerry Vainisi, the team's long-time treasurer, who continued largely in Finks' stead for the next several years as the team built upon the foundations laid by Finks' overhaul and turned into a championship organization. Just as quickly as this turnaround began, however, it fell apart. Vanisi clashed with Mike McCaskey, and McCaskey, always quick to credit himself for the success of a team he had no hand in building, fired Vanisi and assumed total personnel control for himself. After a decade of improvement, the Bears were back to being a small-time mom and pop organization.

The results are well-known. The Super Bowl champion Bears fell apart, McCaskey's drafts failed to come close to replicating the quality of Finks and Vanisi's, then McCaskey made the ill-fated decision to hire Dave Wannstedt and grant him personnel control. Finally, after the team's second consecutive 4-12 season in 1998, McCaskey botched the hiring of Dave McGinness, turned the entire franchise into a laughing stock, and forced his own family to fire him.

After the firing of McCaskey, the Bears slowly took steps towards becoming a respectable franchise once again. They hired a search firm to find them a real general manager, and for some reason that search firm settled on Jerry Angelo. Angelo eventually hired Lovie Smith, and together the two of them built a team that competed regularly and garnered respect, but still came up short.

 Lovie and Jerry represented a comfortable middle-ground for the always-conservative McCaskeys. Angelo valued his scouting department, his gut feelings, and the evaluations of his coaches. Lovie Smith talked of getting off the bus running, promoted a closed-door policy with the media, and spoke with reverence for "Chicago Bears football." While both were steps forward from the lunacy of the era before them, they were still thoroughly old school types, determined to build the Bears on a tried and true playbook written long ago.

Enter Phil Emery and Marc Trestman. What the two of them are trying to accomplish right now has rarely been attempted before in the NFL, and certainly not in Chicago. In a press conference he gave back in January, Emery referenced the extreme statistical analysis he uses in order to evaluate a player:

Yes we’re going to pay attention to the coach’s grades. Yes we’re going to pay attention to our internal scouting grades. But let’s look at this another way. I went to STATS Inc., went through all the numbers. Went to Pro Football Focus, did all the numbers. I’m familiar with STATS Inc. We’re one of their contracted teams. Spent quite a bit of time with their people, not only their programmers but went to their offices, watched how they grade tape, how they triple check all their facts. So I trust all their data, that’s it’s unbiased, that it doesn’t have my hands in it, that it doesn’t have our coach’s or scout’s hands in it, or anybody else in the league. They are simply reporting fact. Some ways to look at it is in a very Money Ball way, crunching the numbers.

That evaluation process right there is a big step forward from Mike Tice telling us that J'Marcus Webb "graded out well" in the team's evaluation process while every other statistical metric and our own eyes told us otherwise. Just today, Emery took this process a step further by appointing Mitchell Tanney as Director of Analytics, a new stat-oriented position in the front office.

Another sign that Emery valued statistical analysis and an unbiased evaluation of player performance was the decision to move on from Brian Urlacher. Urlacher said it all when he stated that he believed he'd still be a Bear if Lovie Smith was the head coach. Emery was unswayed by Urlacher's history, his presence, his leadership, or the historical importance of MLBs in the Bears defense. He simply saw what any statistician or objective evaluator would see: a washed up football player.

This new mode of thinking also shows up in Emery's draft strategy. It's clear from his statements on the importance of versatility and the drafting of players like Shea McClellin and Kyle Long that Emery understands the changing nature of the NFL, and the need for fast, athletic "tweeners" who can fit multiple schemes without substitutions.

Kyle Long is also an example of the Bears new forward-thinking approach. Aaron Kromer, explaining why the Bears put Long at guard instead of tackle despite their assertions that he is their most talented lineman, cited statistics that demonstrated that most pressure on quarterbacks actually comes from the interior, and stated that the Bears philosophy would be to build their pass-protection from the inside out.

The last, and most important, change that Phil Emery has brought to the Bears is Marc Trestman. As mentioned nearly everywhere, Emery took a huge risk bringing in a guy from the CFL to coach the team. Trestman is regarded as a guru and an innovator, a guy who has witnessed the evolution of the West Coast Offense practically since it's birth, who has incorporated elements of the spread offense, the read option, and other recent trends, and who was brought in to give the Bears a counter to the machinations of the Packers and other offensive juggernauts. While it remains to be seen how Trestman will fare in the NFL, it's clear the Bears are going in a very new direction.

When Phil Emery was hired last year he was more or less an unknown. Some questioned how much power he would even wield, considering he was forced to keep Lovie Smith on as head coach. Since then, however, it's become painfully obvious Emery has complete control of this team. He fired Lovie, despite Lovie's stellar reputation and relationship with the McCaskeys. He moved on from Urlacher, despite McCaskey conspiracy theorists' fears that George McCaskey's comments about Brian meant they would pressure Emery to keep him. He made a bold and unorthodox coaching hire after a lengthy interview process, passing on several "safer" picks. Regardless of what anyone thought in the beginning, Phil Emery right now IS the Chicago Bears.

There's no guarantee, of course, that any of this will work. Numbers are imperfect, and both Emery and Trestman remain unproven quantities in the NFL. The fact of the matter is, however, that the future seems more hopeful for the organization now that it's finally free of people who appeared to be more concerned with the past.

SKOdCast Update

Hello,

As you may have noticed, if you're looking for anything Bears related amidst the Blackhawks in the Final and baseball, there's not terribly much to talk about in the dry-period besides "so and so said Joe Anderson looked good in mini-camp," and we refuse to talk about mini-camp. So from here until the preseason we'll be doing the SKOdCast bi-weekly. So see you next Tuesday!

Episode 8 of the Podcast Now Up!

Enjoy!

And as promised, here's the David Terrell interview with RedEye: http://articles.redeyechicago.com/2013-06-12/sports/39931743_1_redeye-opinion-gabe-carimi

Episode 8 of the Podcast at 6:15 PM

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741

Before we all stop paying attention to watch the Blackhawks, join us as we discuss:

The Sweet 16 of the Worst Bears Players Ever (Since 1997)

Goddammit, Evan Rodriguez

Goodbye, Gabe Carimi

Goddammit, Bears Fans

Episode 7 of the Podcast is Now Up!

Episode 7 of the Podcast Live at 6:15

Do not fret, part two of round one of the Worst Bears Players of All Time (Since 1997-ish) is on the way.

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741

The Ghost of Lovie Smith, Apparently

I apologize for our lack of content in recent weeks, but after the draft there just isn't much to talk about until actual football starts happening again. Fortunately for me, this doesn't stop the good folks of the Chicago sports media from trying.

Before I start this one, I want to say that I actually respect Dan Bernstein. His radio stuff is pretty good, despite his sometimes inflammatory opinions, and he always offers sources and numbers to back his shit up on air. Plus, his defense of Jason Collins and gay rights in general on the day Collins came out was truly inspiring. He seems like a standup guy and a solid radio host. Unfortunately, whenever he sits down at a keyboard, terrible things happen.

Today's drivel is titled "Briggs' Response Shows Bears' Identity Challenge." And let me tell you now, it is extremely difficult to follow. The essential thrust of the column, if it has one at all, is that Lance Briggs' refusal to answer questions about Brian Urlacher not being signed means half of the team doesn't respect Marc Trestman and will play poorly.

And so, with a heavy sigh, I turn on the italics.

The Bracket, Halfway through Round 1:

Click to enlarge.

Episode Six of the SKOdCast is Up: The Tournament Begins!

Episode Six of the SKOdCast: The Worst Bears Players of All Time (Since 1997), Tonight at 6:15 PM

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741 Listen live as we discuss, tournament style, the worst Bears of players of our recent collective memories, and Brian Urlacher's retirement.

This Week's Episode of the SKOdCast has been Postponed!

Due to conflicts, we'll be seeing you next week. Don't worry, we have something very special planned.

Episode Five of the SKOdCast Now Up:

Episode 5 of the SKO Podcast Tonight at 6:15 PM

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741

Follow along live as we cover:

-The Draft, Part Two: Other teams did stuff, too:
           - Seriously, what the hell is Jacksonville doing?
           - The Plight of Geno Smith
           - Seriously, I'm still laughing at the Jets
           -Oh hey, turns out nobody wanted Manti Te'O

-The Horiffic Condition Afflicting Rookie Quarterbacks on a Yearly Basis

-What did the rest of the NFC North do?

-Goddammit, Bears Fans.

The Dead Period Home Stretch: How to Identify the Danger Signs

It's the worst time of year right now, Bears fans. You got past the February-May lull where the only football news is draft conjecture that (as we especially have seen) is largely completely goddamned worthless. But now what to look forward to? We have May, June, July, and half of August to sit here and think about football without actually seeing any. And you know what that does to people?:

Yeah. So instead of that, most people just start reading the ESPN NFL tab for offseason news. This, my friends, believe it or not, is even MORE dangerous than taking care of a cavernous hotel, infested with ghosts, cut off from civilization, being directed by Stanley Kubrick. Lucky for you, I'm here to attempt to steer you clear of the many Second Dead Period pitfalls. Without further ado:

1. The "I saw this in practice and it is sure to be a focal point!" wave.

Remember every article you ever read about how Devin Hester "finally got it" and he was going to be a "big part" of the offense? File that here! The most important thing to note about this category is that Michael C. Wright and the rest of the guys who watch practices open to the media have exactly as much evidence and insight into the Bears this upcoming season as we do, they just get paid to write about it.

Consider this: You are coaching a football team. You have hundreds of people surrounding you with high-tech video and audio equipment. These people's jobs are quite literally to lay bare your entire operation. Are you going to give anything away? Yes?... should I bring out more Shining videos to show you what you turn me into?

An interesting note: last season before the preseason Michael C. Wright hosted a chat. He had just reported that Hester would be the #2 receiver, with Alshon in the slot and BBE presumably eating Skittles. I asked, why, why would the Bears do that? It makes no sense! His reply: "I don't know, but that's what I saw!"

So, case closed.

People I Hate: You, If You're Still Whining About the Bears Passing on Tyler Eifert

I'll give Bears fans more credit than I usually do. After an initial panicked reaction by many on the actual night of the first round, the general consensus seems to be a calm, rational "let's see how this plays out" regarding Kyle Long. However, the few people who are still desperately clinging to the idea that this was a wasted first round pick, be they fans or media talking heads (lookin' at you, Kiper and Steve Rosendouche), seem to be basing their complaints less on any perceived shortcomings of Long's and more on the opportunity cost in terms of a player the Bears passed on, namely one Tyler Eifert.

If this description applies to you, well, I warn you, if you read my following reasons as to why you're a moron, they will probably break you. Don't worry, though, I will rebuild you into something better, smarter, and more knowledgeable in the ways of the football, like me.

Without further ado, here's why Phil Emery wasn't wrong to pass on Tyler Eifert:

A #2 Tight End was absolutely nowhere near this team's biggest need:

Quick, write a list of the top three reasons why Jay Cutler has struggled at times as a Bear. I'll wait.

Got it? Okay, if your list had "he really needs a great pass-catching #2 Tight End!" anywhere ahead of: 1. Absolutely shitty offensive line play, 2. Inconsistent and sometimes clueless coaching, or 3. His tendency to fire fastballs to opposing defensive backs when he's frustrated, I'd really like you to go drink a nice, tall glass of battery acid.

I hope that hurt. The Bears have plenty of targets. They have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, and two very good pass-catching runningbacks, among others. They hope they've address the coaching problem by hiring Trestman. In order to fix #3, they need to fix #'s 1 and 2, and they're hoping to do that by drafting Kyle Long. Literally none of the above problems are solved with a backup tight end.

Yes, I said backup tight end:

Do you know who this is? It's okay if you don't. Mel Kiper and the ESPN crew seemed to quite stubbornly ignore his existence while urging the Bears to take Eifert so that Mel's precious big board would look a little less stupid. This is Martellus Bennett. He's a bit of an odd fellow. He calls himself the Black Unicorn and raps about Cap'N'Crunch.

He's also a damn good tight end. According to Pro Football Focus he's been one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL since he entered the league, and last year, in his first year free from the shadow of Tony Romo's favorite target Jason Witten, he racked up 626 yards receiving and 5 TDs by catching over 61% of the balls thrown his way. He's your starter, and that's a good thing, so you're lobbying for a backup with your first round pick.

"But, but, the Patriots!":

Oh, right, the Patriots have had so much success with Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk. It's the way of the future! EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE TWO SUPER AWESOME TIGHT ENDS!

Well, last time I checked the Patriots had the highest scoring offense in history before they had either of those two on the roster. It turns out that Tom Brady, with time behind a great offensive line (and that's key here, folks), can make any assortment of pass-catchers, regardless of position, into a damn good offense. Doesn't mean that's the only way to fly.

Also, the Bears had two pretty decent pass-catching tight ends with Cutler once, in 2009, and he couldn't hit Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen with his face in the turf.

If the Bears DO want two pass-catching tight ends, well, there's always Evan Rodriguez, the big hulking guy who runs a 4.5 forty and drew comparisons to Aaron Hernandez coming out of college for his great hands, good speed, supposedly questionable blocking ability, and because of the unwritten scouting law that you can only compare prospects to someone of the same ethnicity. It turns out Rodriguez actually blocks really well, and he led all Bears tight ends with 3 catches for 49 yards in the preseason, and Mike Tice's natural response to this surprising upside was to make a fast, versatile athlete into a blocking-only fullback while Kellen Davis kicked all of our hopes and dreams in the testicles. Trestman is on record as saying he sees a lot of potential for Rodriguez in the passing game, provided he can avoid further incidents with the law.

Hey, what if Tyler Eifert's not really any good?

I know, I know, it's unthinkable a highly-touted prospect from Notre Dame could be overrated. Such things have never happened before in the history of football. Interestingly enough, Eifert drew a lot of comparisons throughout his career to Stanford's Coby Fleener, the top tight end in last year's draft who ended up with a whopping 281 yards receiving last year and a spot on the depth chart behind the Other tight end his team drafted. It's also hard to find a single scouting report of Eifer that doesn't criticize his blocking abilities to some extent, so excuse Phil Emery for not falling all over himself to draft the next Greg Olsen (who, by the way, finally surpassed 612 yards receiving for the first time in his career on the sixth try, and we're all super proud, Greg). I mean, if Eifert ends up as just another tight end who is little more than a big wide receiver, that would seem to be of less value to a team that really, really needs blockers than, say, a really talented guard.

We get it, you just really like Notre Dame:

Seriously, just, like, shut up already.

Rick Morrissey's Second Apparently Weekly Mental Collapse

Let me first take this opportunity to gloat over the fact that I, and not Rick Morrissey, was totally right about the Bears' first-round pick. However, I can do better than that today because Rick apparently is determined to crank out an even stupider column this week. And he just may have succeeded! 

This week's cannon fodder is entitled "Heredity Made Long Easy Choice for Bears." If you couldn't gather from the title what it's about (in which case, thanks for reading, Telander!), Morrissey is boldly claiming that the only thing Emery saw in Kyle Long was his dad's last name. As ever, his disjointed thoughts are in italics. 

I don’t want to minimize the work that Bears general manager Phil Emery and his staff did in preparation for the draft, the hours they put in and their lack of anything resembling a personal life the last year or so. 

“But I’m going to.”

Episode Four of the SKOdCast Now Up:

Episode Four of the SKOdCast Tonight at 6:15

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741

Follow along live as we discuss:

-The Bears Draft
-Pretty much just the Bears draft
-We ♥ Phil Emery
-Goddammit, Bears Fans and the Stupid Things They Said About the Draft

Can Tim Tebow be Fixed? What about Jay Cutler?

When I think of Tim Tebow, I think of Kyle Boller.

You see, Kyle was drafted in the first round in 2003 because of a strong final year at Cal. Up until his last year, Boller had been a tremendous disappointment, for his cannon arm had completed just 45% of his passes, thrown for just 1721 yards a year, and compiled a lackluster 36-38 TD:INT ratio. Then famed QB guru Jeff Tedford took over at Cal, and Kyle threw for nearly 3000 YDs with a 28-10 ratio his senior year. His rocket arm and great size (6'3", 220) led Brian Billick and the Ravens to take a chance on his continued improvement and made him the Ravens QB of the future.

The Ravens, however, had overlooked that Boller, in his best year, completed just 53% of his passes. Boller's accuracy issues hadn't really gone away, so much as a new system and better coaching hid the rest of his flaws. In the NFL, Boller's accuracy proved to be his undoing, as he struggled through nine years in the NFL to a 56.7 career completion %. That is, in all fairness to the Ravens coaching staff, a tremendous improvement over his college career (47.8%), although it came at the cost of running a conservative short passing game (Boller averaged 5.9 YPA, 10.4 YPC, and just 133 YPG in his career) that rendered any offense with Boller at the helm completely impotent.

The point is, quarterbacks that can't throw the ball accurately in the NFL aren't likely ever going to do so.

2013 Bears Draft: Talent Trumps All

Every year I think it's expected that every blogger give their half-assed draft grades after the whole process is done. I've never really done that and still won't. The draft is a crapshoot and millions of dollars are spent trying to determine whether these kids are any good or not, and half or more of them will still fail. So I'm not going to say before anyone's taken a snap whether they're an A or a C. With that said, with all we have to go by being physical attributes, positions, and production...I am as excited about this draft class' potential as I can remember being at any point in recent years. Last year I was little more than cautiously optimistic about Shea, thrilled about Alshon, utterly befuddled by Brandon Hardin, surprised by Evan Rodriguez, and didn't expect much out of the rest (and none of them made the roster), but this year the Bears drafted talented players who fit clear needs in nearly every round, and it's quite possible all six players could make the roster and contribute on the field this year. That's the best you can really hope for.

#20 Overall, Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
So on last week's SKOdCast, we made a desperate plea to Bears fans to not immediately assume a guy sucks if the team drafted someone other than the names you kept seeing in mock drafts. Naturally they chose a surprise player and everybody lost their F*&KING MINDS.

After the dust settled, however, Long isn't really that big of a surprise. He was a top 30 player on ESPN's board, Scouts, INC had him ranked #26, he was the consensus third best guard in the draft...and the Bears badly needed a guard. Why is this so hard? As for the people who feel it's a reach, well, that seems unlikely for a guy who was a top 30 prospect. Some think the Cowboys traded back because they thought they could nab him and were shocked when he was gone and forced into taking Frederick. Others have said the Colts wanted him. I really don't care. In a draft like this, where top-level talent at the premier positions was largely lacking, the difference between a player at #20 and a player at #40 isn't that great, and those slots were going to be determined by team preference. If Long was their guy, and I have no trouble believing he was, it makes sense to me to take him as soon as you have the chance, because with nine offensive linemen off the board in the first round it wasn't likely he'd still be there later. Also, the 20th overall pick last year got $8 million for four years, so I really don't think the franchise is screwed if he bombs.

I don't think he will, though. He's a freak of nature athletically and he looks like goddamn Frankenstein's monster. Playing at guard he'll hopefully be less exposed as he learns on the run and his natural talent should help make up for his lack of experience. I don't think his inexperience is that much of an issue anyway, he got a full season of experience under his belt at a top five program (even if he only started five games) and started for a year at JuCo before that. The offensive line isn't exactly the most mentally demanding position on the field, and Aaron Kromer has a track record of developing linemen from Division II schools and turning them into immediate starters. I am excited to see what he can do, and unlike many, apparently, I'm willing to wait to see him do it before I pass judgment.

#50 Overall, Jon Bostic, MLB, Florida

Bostic actually makes the most sense of any linebacker that was in the draft for the Bears, if you think about it. He's not undersized for an MLB, like Arthur Brown, so he's less likely to struggle in the middle in the NFL, he was the 3rd-fastest linebacker at the combine with a 4.61 40, so he's more than capable of dropping deep into coverage in the Tampa Two, and he also made all of the calls in a Tampa Two style defense at Florida. I think Arthur Brown may have been a more tempting athletic prospect, but Bostic is as natural a fit as they were going to find, and the presence of DJ Williams keeps the pressure to produce immediately off of him.

#117 Overall, Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers

He's going to draw a ton of comparisons to Lance Briggs, who he's obviously intended to provide depth and a potential heir for, given his position, their similar measurables (and matching 4.7 40 times at their respective combines), and that's both unfair and understandable. No one can necessarily be Lance Briggs, arguably one of the two greatest players to ever play the OLB in a Tampa Two style defense, but Greene's numbers in college are promising in two categories where Lance has often thrived: impact tackles (gains of two yards or less that prevented first downs), where Greene led all college linebackers last year with 27, and forced fumbles (15 for his career). A lot of people will question his numbers by saying the scheme at Rutgers was designed to give him a free shot at the ball-carrier, but that's exactly what the Bears defense does for Briggs. It may have taken Urlacher's very rapid demise to give the organization some urgency, but it's nice to see them actively prepare for a world without their superstar linebacker. The Greene and Bostic picks should also put to a rest for all time the conspiracy theories that the Bears are still potentially planning a switch to a 3-4 in the near future, because Greene and Bostic fit exactly one type of defense perfectly, and it's the one they're already running.

#163 Overall, Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech

You never want to overrate the potential impact of a late round offensive lineman, but there's cause for optimism with Mills. He has good size and arm length and he was considered by many to be a potential 3rd round pick. Even more importantly is, as I mentioned with Kyle Long, Aaron Kromer's track record as an offensive line coach: Jahri Evans (4th Rd, Division II Bloomsburg University), Carl Nicks (5th Rd, transferred to Nebraska after two years of JuCo), Jermon Bushrod (4th Rd, FCS Towson), and Zach Strief (7th Rd, Northwestern) were all mid to late round picks mostly from small schools who have become Pro Bowl or All Pro caliber linemen under Kromer's guidance. Nicks and Evans both started and played well as rookies as well, so there's reason to believe that if Kromer thinks Long and Mills can play right from the start, he's probably right. Even if Mills is just a potential future starter and a guy who can add to the competition this year, it's nice to see that Emery has now added five completely new players to the offensive line, and that guys like Webb and Carimi (and hopefully even Garza) will have to earn both their jobs and their roster spots. The overhaul was long awaited, but better late than never.

#188 Overall, Cornelius Washington, DE, Georgia

It's never a Bears draft without a defensive lineman (although we finally broke the 8 years long streak of safeties), but I didn't look into many defensive ends before the draft so I can't tell you shit about this guy. Mike Mayock says he's fast (4.55 40) and he likes the pick for a situational pass rusher. With Wootton, McClellin, and Kyle Moore (and the still possible return of Izzy) he seems to have the toughest task of cracking the roster of any of the picks, but we'll see.

#236 Overall, Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State

Oh man do I approve of this. Marquess Wilson, ironically, is the only guy the Bears drafted that I've actually watched several games of, and I was hoping all along he might be an option for the team at some point. He's a first day talent (I don't know about first round, although some had him there before last season) who fell hard because of some admittedly concerning personal issues. As Iggins! can tell you, I'm not one to get scared off by drinking or pot (DRAFT THE WEED GUY! is one of my favorite chants on draft day, actually), but a guy who walked out on his team and made apparently false claims of abuse against his coaches probably has some maturity issues. In the seventh round, though? Absolutely worth the risk. He's 6'4'', he plays much faster than his 40 time (4.51, still not bad), and, like Jeffery and Marshall, makes himself a deep threat less through speed than his ability to create separation and fight for jump balls. In a best case scenario he's a solid #3 who rotates with Bennett, but he's also a similar type of player who can step in as a potential starter on the outside if Jeffery struggles or is injured again in year two. I just can't see a downside here.

Wilson also illustrates the difference between Phil Emery and Jerry Angelo's philosophies. If you look at the receivers that Jerry took in the 6th or 7th rounds (Derek Kinder, Marcus Monk, Jamin Elliot) or guys he signed as UFAs like Sanzenfucker or Mike Haas, Angelo preferred to go with productive college starters who lacked measurables but seemed valuable to a team through their hard work and potential production on special teams. Wilson was definitely productive (averaged 97 yards per game in his career at WSU), but Emery clearly values the potential of hitting on another big, physical receiver than on a smaller guy who might be more useful on special teams. High Ceilings, Low Floors (Emery) vs. High Floors, Low Ceilings (Angelo). Not that one option is necessarily better than the other over the long haul, but it certainly gives you more hope in the spring time when camp is still far away.

That's all for now. In short, I'm more than fine with taking a guard with tons of potential at #20 in a very odd draft, even if it may have been a bit of a gamble, but I'm even more excited about the depth and potential from nearly every round of the draft, more so than in recent memory. I can't wait for camp to start. While it's premature to tell whether they'll be any good or not, there's certainly a lot of questions I'm looking forward to seeing them answer. Go Bears.

Tune in to the SKOdCast this Wednesday for even more discussion of the draft.

Rick Morrissey's First Annual Pre-Draft Mental Collapse

The draft is upon us! In just a few short hours, young men from around the country will gather in hilarious suits, and together go forth unto their destiny. Rick Morrissey is so excited, and also so, so stupid, about tonight’s events. This is actually a rare insight into Rick’s personality, because he spends the entire article spelling out exactly why and how he wants the Bears to fail for his personal and professional delight. It’s a schizophrenic mess, and I just had to get this out before the draft happened.

As ever, he is in italics.

I don’t normally start these things with the title, but in this case I’m going to because…

Draft Manti Te’o? Bears Should Take Him or Leave Him

Yes. Those are the two things it is possible to do with a player in the draft. Well done, Rick.

Episode 3 of the SKOdCast is Now Up!

Episode 3 of the SKOdcast Tonight at 6:15

Follow along live as we discuss:

-Is anyone really "Good" at the draft?
-What killed Jerry Angelo?
-LOL @ J E T S JETS JETS JETS
-Other draft stuff, probably.
-This week's Goddammit Bears fans.

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/127741