Earlier today, inspired by NFL Networks Top Ten QB Controversies of All-Time, I decided to compile a list of the Top Ten Bears QB Controversies of my lifetime (1988-Present). Here's the rest of the list:
4. Jim Miller vs. Cade McNown, 2000
During the 1999 NFL Draft, the Bears tabbed Cade McNown, quarterback from UCLA, with the 12th overall pick. As you may have figured out, I was not a fan of this pick, and things didn't turn out too well. The Bears entered the 1999 season with the plan that Shane Matthews would start until McNown was ready. Miller was simply a journeyman who'd managed to beat out Moses Moreno for the third spot on the depth chart. Matthews was the starter for most of the season, while McNown started a few games after Matthews got hurt, and Miller started a few games after both Matthews and McNown were knocked out. Miller performed the best of the three, but was given a suspension for taking a banned supplement.
Going into the 2000 season, the Bears held a "competition" for the starting job, with McNown getting the majority of the reps. The second year QB started off the season in a promising fashion, racking up 377 total yards and 3 total TDs in a losing effort against Minnesota, but as the weeks went by his performance regressed drastically. After 8 games under McNown, the Bears stood at 1-7, with the fans chanting for Miller every week. Dick Jauron, likely pressured by management to support the "QB of the Future," continued to state that McNown gave the Bears the best chance to win. In that 8th game, McNown went down after a tremendous hit by Eagles DE Hugh Douglass (who would ironically knock Miller out of the playoff game a year later), and Miller finally got his chance. While the Bears lost that game, Miller won his first start against the Colts, 27-24, but blew out his ankle the next week against Buffalo. The controversy ended there, as McNown's career was essentially over thanks to his injury and his ineffectiveness, and Shane Matthews took most of the snaps the rest of the way.
3. Kyle Orton vs. Rex Grossman, 2005 and 2008.
The Bears selected Rex Grossman with the 22nd overall pick in the 2003 NFL Draft. He started three games his rookie year and looked very promising, and his first three starts of the 2004 season were mostly impressive as well, but then his bad luck began. A torn ACL in the 3rd game of 2004 wiped out the rest of that season. In 2005, Grossman was joined on the depth chart by 4th round pick Kyle Orton out of Purdue. The Patron Saint was supposed to hold a clipboard as the third stringer during his rookie year, as Grossman's back-up was Chad Hutchinson, who saved the 2004 Bears season like Neifi Perez saved the 2005 Cubs. The star-crossed Grossman broke his ankle in the second preseason game of 2005, which left Hutchinson holding the keys to the starting job. Not surprisingly, he fumbled. Hutchinson was so abysmal in the third preseason game (completed just 1 of 12 passes against the Bills), that Lovie rightfully concluded that the rookie was the best option at quarterback.
Orton then started the first 14 games of the season, and the Bears were a surprising 10-4 in that span. Orton was playing fairly well for a rookie outside of one 5 interception abortion against the Bengals (57% comp., 73 rating in his first 10 games excluding CINC.).
As Grossman became healthy and available to play around the time of the Tampa Bay game, however, Orton went into the tank. Orton was terrible against the Bucs, Packers, and Steelers, and the fans really began to clamor for Grossman. Orton went just 2-10 for 12 yard in the first half against the Falcons, and that was the end. Grossman entered to a standing ovation in the second half, started the next game against the Packers (a division-clinching win) and then started the playoff game against the Panthers after Orton got one more start in a meaningless game against the Vikings. The controversy seemed at an end as the Bears signed veteran Brian Griese to back up Rex in 2006, and Kyle was quickly forgotten.
The controversy arose again, however, in 2008. Grossman's notorious struggles in 2006 and 2007, and Griese's failure to do much of anything at all in his stead, led the Bears to open the QB job to a competition between Grossman and Orton. Despite many (yours truly included) thinking the Bears were sure to hand the job to Rex, Kyle won, and shocked the hell out of everyone by leading the Bears to a 5-3 record while averaging 222 passing yards per game, throwing for 10 tds, and posting a 90.8 QB rating. Unfortunately, Orton injured his ankle in the 8th game of the season against Detroit, leading to Rex's last start in a Bear uniform the next week against Tennessee. Grossman had clearly lost his touch by then, and had just a 59.7 rating in his three appearances. When Orton returned, he was much less effective and the Bears missed the playoffs. Jerry Angelo decided to end this controversy by jettisoning both, with Grossman headed to free agency and Orton traded for Jay Cutler.
2. Jim McMahon vs. Jim Harbaugh vs. Mike Tomczak, 1987-1990
This one I'm going to cite from the history books, as I'm too young to actually remember a game started by Tomczak or McMahon. McMahon was the Bears first round pick in 1982 and was without a doubt the best quarterback the Bears have had since Sid Luckman, at least in terms of ultimate results (46-15 as a starter, Super Bowl Champion), but was undeniably brittle, as he never started more than 13 games in a season during his Bears career, and only started more than 10 games twice in his seven years with the team. Because of McMahon's frequent stints in the trainer's room, the Bears drafted Jim Harbaugh in the first round of the 1987 draft. This was despite the fact that some in the locker room (primarily just McMahon and Tomczak himself) thought that Mike Tomczak was a better option as McMahon's back-up. McMahon and Tomczak were close friends while both were bitter rivals of Harbaugh and barely spoke to him at all, according to rumor. The saga of the McMahon-Harbaugh-Tomczak trio plays itself out in the number of starts each had from 1987 until Harbaugh became the undisputed starter in 1990.
1987: McMahon- 6 starts, 210 attempts, Tomczak- 6 starts, 178 attempts, Harbaugh- 0 starts, 11 attempts (replacements Mike Hohensee and Steve Bradley started a combined 3 games during the strike)
1988: McMahon- 9 starts, 192 attempts, Tomczak- 5 starts, 170 attempts, Harbaugh- 2 starts, 97 attempts.
McMahon was traded to San Diego after the season, leaving Tomczak and Harbaugh to battle it out.
1989: Tomczak- 11 starts, 306 attempts, Harbaugh- 5 starts, 178 attempts.
1990: Harbaugh- 14 starts, 312 attempts, Tomczak-2 starts, 104 attempts.
Tomczak departed after the 1990 season, leaving Harbaugh as the winner of the contest. As I mentioned before, however, Harbaugh's hold on the job was always fragile, as Ditka never seemed to embrace him and he found himself in another controversy with PT Willis soon enough.
1. Rex Grossman vs. Brian Griese, 2006-2007.
The top spot should surprise no one. The paint had barely dried on the "savior" label that the fans had applied to Rex after he relieved Orton in 2005 when Rex found himself on the other end of the fans' support. During the 2006 preseason, Grossman compiled just a 60.7 quarterback rating while Griese led the NFL at 141.7. Some fans and pundits argued that Lovie Smith shouldn't risk the Bears Superbowl aspirations by going with Rex Grossman and his 7 career starts over a "proven" veteran like Griese (although I maintained that the only thing Brian Griese had proven was that he wasn't a good quarterback at all). That controversy seemed to end, however, when Rex won NFC Offensive Player of the Month in September of '06 after leading the Bears to a 5-0 record, throwing for 10 touchdowns, 3 ints, 1243 yards, and a 100.8 rating. All Bears fans know what happened next, however, as Grossman melted down with a four interception game against the Cardinals and had a 61.4 rating and 17 interceptions over the last 10 games of the season. By the time the playoffs rolled around, many felt that Griese should have been the postseason starter, and they only grew louder after Grossman's 2 interceptions in the Superbowl helped Indianapolis seal the game.
In 2007, Grossman vowed to cut down on turnovers, but instead seemed indecisive and regressed even further, and was benched after he posted a 45.2 rating during a 1-2 start in the first 3 games. Griese finally stepped in and responded by throwing 3 interceptions against the god damned Detroit Lions. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm supposed to keep my rational, analytical "professional" tone while writing about Brian F*&king Griese? Not going to happen. Brian Griese sucks. Brian Griese sucks so hard that bystanders have been injured by the vortex of suck that he generates while walking. Brian Griese is a god awful journeyman so bad that he goes to bed with delusions of one day being Jeff Garcia. Sure, you may argue, Griese's 75.6 rating in 2007 was way better than Rex's or even Kyle's that year. But you, sir, are an idiot. Do you realize how hard it is to throw SEVEN interceptions and choke away two games to the DETROIT LIONS? Let's compare the passer ratings of Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and Jay Cutler when it comes to Detroit:
Cutler: 112.6
Orton: 102.2
Grossman: 82.2
Griese: 54.3
That's right, folks, when it comes to facing the Detroit Lions, Brian Griese morphs into Ryan Leaf. Now some of you may have realized by now that the reason Start Kyle Orton was founded actually had less to do with our love of the Patron Saint (not that we don't love him) but with our hatred of the weak-armed, hair-brained Griese. Because seriously, f*&k that guy.
Anyways, Griese started 6 games, lost 3 of them, got injured against the Raiders, and was relieved by Rex who won the game with a bomb to Berrian. Rex then started the next four games and played much better, but was injured against the Redskins and replaced by Griese (who, not surprisingly, threw 2 interceptions as the team lost by a touchdown), who was then replaced for the last three games of the season by the Patron Saint, who was the only quarterback the Bears started that year who had a winning record (2-1). So remember kids, when asked the following question:
When Brian Griese and Rex Grossman face off, who wins?
The answer is Kyle Orton.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Matthews, McNown, or Miller and Death is Not an Option
I was watching NFL Network's brilliant Top Ten series the other day as they counted down the the Top Ten Quarterback Controversies of all time. There were some great ones in there (Flutie vs. Rob Johnson, Rivers vs. Brees, Morton vs. Staubach, Montana vs. Young) and it got me thinking of all the epic quarterback controversies the Bears have had in my lifetime. I thought it might be fun to recap some of them and look back at how utterly braindead we all were to think any of these guys would lead the Bears to a championship. So without further ado, here are the
TOP TEN QUARTERBACK CONTROVERSIES OF MY LIFETIME (1988-Present)
10. Jonathan Quinn vs. Craig Krenzel vs. Chad Hutchinson vs. Jeff George vs. my Burgeoning Alcoholism, 2004
It's hard to remember now, but the Lovie Smith Era could have conceivably started off with three straight playoff appearances. The 2004 NFC was pathetically weak, with TWO 8-8 teams (the Vikings and the Rams) making the playoffs. The Bears actually had the NFL's 13th ranked defense and were by far the best in the NFC North on that side of the ball. After Rex Grossman went down after the team's 1-2 start, the offense dropped from an average of 20 PPG and 345 YPG to an average of 13 PPG and 214 YPG. The culprits? The first three quarterbacks listed above. Quinn came in after Rex was injured late in the 4th quarter against the Vikings and was absolutely abysmal in three starts against the Eagles, Redskins, and Buccaneers, as well as in relief against the Cowboys. Fans clamored for rookie 5th round pick Krenzel to start. Krenzel relieved Quinn against TB and won his first three starts against the 49ers, the Giants, and the Titans, despite averaging only 142 yards passing in those three games (and completing less than 40% in two of them). The Bears defense stopped winning games singlehandedly, however, and Krenzel lost his next two starts against the Colts and the Cowboys before going on IR with an injured ankle. Hutchinson came in because why the fuck not and somehow threw three touchdowns against the Vikings before leading the offense to just 9 ppg in a four game losing streak to end the season. Oh, and at some point they signed the 38 year old Jeff George, who hadn't played since 2001. Mercifully, he didn't get a start. If you'd managed to forget this whole mess, good for you, but just remember: At one point in your life, you thought Craig Krenzel would be an upgrade at quarterback. And you were Right.
9. Jim Harbaugh vs. PT Willis, 1992
You may be asking yourself who the hell PT Willis is. That's okay. I don't remember him that much either, but I was 5 when he made his last start in a Bears uniform. PT was the back up for Jim Harbaugh after Mike Tomczak left, and his preseason exploits against 3rd string defenses made him look capable at that job. Given that Mike Ditka's relationship with Harbaugh was always tenuous at best, it's no surprise that PT got a chance to start towards the end of Ditka's last year with the Bears dead in the water. He sucked. Horribly (54.9 career QB rating). The Bears were 0-3 in games started by Willis between 1992-1993 with the average score being 21-8. Just so you know, if you're coaching for your job, starting PT Willis isn't a good move.
8. Kordell Stewart vs. Chris Chandler, 2003
I'm not sure this was a controversy, as I don't remember wanting either of those two guys. Does that make it a controversy? I guess. Stewart was the Bears "big" free agent signing after the 4-12 2002 season, and for some reason that was supposed to help them back to the playoffs. Stewart sucked (56.8 rating) and led the Bears to a 1-4 start in 2003, including such whoppers as a 49-7 loss to San Francisco and a 38-23 loss to the Packers on MNF in the first game of the "new" Soldier Field. Chandler came in and went 3-3 over the next six games, despite not playing all that much better than Kordell (61.3 rating), but he was injured against Denver. Kordell had the only good passing game either had all season long in a 28-3 victory over the Cardinals, but any victory over the Cardinals before 2007 doesn't count. The Bears had somehow backed their way into playoff contention, and had a 14-0 lead over Green Bay in Lambeau. After the Packers had managed to regain the lead at 19-14, Stewart drove the team all the way to the Green Bay 10 yard line, but threw an absolutely awful interception which Mike McKenzie returned 90 yards for the clinching score. The Bears were then eliminated from contention, and the Rex Grossman Era began, leaving Absolute Failure as the definitive winner of the Chandler-Stewart debate.
7. Erik Kramer vs. Rick Mirer, 1997
This, sadly, was only a controversy because Dave Wannstedt was the only man left alive in 1997 who thought Rick Mirer could still be a starting quarterback in the National Football League, and the mustachioed bastard traded a first round pick to Seattle in order to acquire the legendary double first round bust. Erik Kramer was only one season removed from the greatest passing season in Bears history, but had lost Wannstedt's confidence after an injury plagued and ineffective 1996 season. Wanny had every intention of starting Mirer from day one, but Rick was supposedly so bad in offseason mini-camps that offensive coordinator Matt Cavanuagh was seen throwing his clipboard at the ground in frustration after yet another Mirer mistake. Kramer started the first three games of the season, but the team was winless in those three games and Mirer was given three starts to show what he could do. They were easily the worst three games a quarterback has ever managed in Bears history, as the team failed to score a single offensive touchdown under Mirer's direction and were outscored 78-23. Mirer was benched, Kramer "led" the team to a 4-6 record the rest of the way, and the Bears parted ways with Mirer after the season. I hate you, Dave Wannstedt
6. Shane Matthews vs. Jim Miller, 2001
Matthews and Miller had both entered the 1999 seasons as the guys who were simply supposed to watch Cade McNown's rise to glory. Both of them had NFL careers that lasted longer than Cade. Miller was the fan favorite of the two, but he had been banned for steroids in 1999 and had made just one start in 2000 before blowing out his ankle. Matthews had been solid but unspectacular in 1999-2000, and since "unspectacular" is the quality John Shoop most admires in his quarterbacks, Matthews got the start at the beginning of the 2001 season. Matthews started the first two games, a loss to Baltimore and a win against Minnesota, but was injured at half time of the Vikings game, and the "win" belonged to Miller, who threw for the Bears only two touchdowns of the season to that point. Miller started the next four games, all wins, for the surprisingly 5-1 Bears. In the fourth game, against the 49ers, Matthews was the one with the late game heroics, rallying the team to an overtime win. Matthews got the start against Cleveland the next week, and came back from a 21-7 deficit to tie the game on a last second Hail Mary (although I maintain that Shane Matthews is the only NFL QB for whom 34 yards constitutes a Hail Mary). The Bears won in overtime for the second consecutive week, but the controversy ended there as Miller came back and the team went 7-2 the rest of the way to finish 13-3. In the playoff game against the Eagles, Miller was knocked out early and Matthews failed to muster much offense as the team lost 33-19. Matthews departed after the season, and Miller suffered through yet another injury plagued season in 2002 before departing as well.
5. Steve Walsh vs. Erik Kramer, 1994
Jim Harbaugh had an absolutely awful last season in Chicago in 1993, and so Wannstedt and Co. decided to replace with Erik Kramer and Steve Walsh, who had previously played for the Lions and the Saints, respectively. While Kramer was the starter from day one thanks to his stronger arm and better track record (10-5 as a starter, 75.5 rating in Detroit vs. Walsh's 11-13 record and 69.1 rating), the Bears were 1-2 in the first three games under Kramer (despite his 254 ypg and sparkling 107.5 rating in those three games) and he was injured in the third game. Walsh started the next three games, which the Bears won to bring their record to 4-2. Kramer came back after the bye, but threw three interceptions in a Bears loss to the Lions and was benched during a blowout against Green Bay. Walsh started every game the rest of the way as the team went 8-3 under his direction, made the playoffs, and even won a first round game against the Vikings before bowing out. While Kramer seemed to simply be the recipient of bad luck (the defense allowed 27 PPG in Kramer's 5 starts but only 16 PPG in Walsh's 11, while the offense actually averaged More points under Kramer's direction), Walsh earned praise as a "game manager." The competition was re-opened in 1995, and while Kramer won and broke every Bears passing record in the book and the team finished an identical 9-7, his bad luck continued as they failed to make the playoffs. Walsh left after the 1995 season, but Kramer had to endure three more years of bad luck and losses in Chicago.
I'm stopping this here for today because I just looked up and realized how incredibly long it's getting. You can look forward to the rest tomorrow or Monday.
TOP TEN QUARTERBACK CONTROVERSIES OF MY LIFETIME (1988-Present)
10. Jonathan Quinn vs. Craig Krenzel vs. Chad Hutchinson vs. Jeff George vs. my Burgeoning Alcoholism, 2004
It's hard to remember now, but the Lovie Smith Era could have conceivably started off with three straight playoff appearances. The 2004 NFC was pathetically weak, with TWO 8-8 teams (the Vikings and the Rams) making the playoffs. The Bears actually had the NFL's 13th ranked defense and were by far the best in the NFC North on that side of the ball. After Rex Grossman went down after the team's 1-2 start, the offense dropped from an average of 20 PPG and 345 YPG to an average of 13 PPG and 214 YPG. The culprits? The first three quarterbacks listed above. Quinn came in after Rex was injured late in the 4th quarter against the Vikings and was absolutely abysmal in three starts against the Eagles, Redskins, and Buccaneers, as well as in relief against the Cowboys. Fans clamored for rookie 5th round pick Krenzel to start. Krenzel relieved Quinn against TB and won his first three starts against the 49ers, the Giants, and the Titans, despite averaging only 142 yards passing in those three games (and completing less than 40% in two of them). The Bears defense stopped winning games singlehandedly, however, and Krenzel lost his next two starts against the Colts and the Cowboys before going on IR with an injured ankle. Hutchinson came in because why the fuck not and somehow threw three touchdowns against the Vikings before leading the offense to just 9 ppg in a four game losing streak to end the season. Oh, and at some point they signed the 38 year old Jeff George, who hadn't played since 2001. Mercifully, he didn't get a start. If you'd managed to forget this whole mess, good for you, but just remember: At one point in your life, you thought Craig Krenzel would be an upgrade at quarterback. And you were Right.
9. Jim Harbaugh vs. PT Willis, 1992
You may be asking yourself who the hell PT Willis is. That's okay. I don't remember him that much either, but I was 5 when he made his last start in a Bears uniform. PT was the back up for Jim Harbaugh after Mike Tomczak left, and his preseason exploits against 3rd string defenses made him look capable at that job. Given that Mike Ditka's relationship with Harbaugh was always tenuous at best, it's no surprise that PT got a chance to start towards the end of Ditka's last year with the Bears dead in the water. He sucked. Horribly (54.9 career QB rating). The Bears were 0-3 in games started by Willis between 1992-1993 with the average score being 21-8. Just so you know, if you're coaching for your job, starting PT Willis isn't a good move.
8. Kordell Stewart vs. Chris Chandler, 2003
I'm not sure this was a controversy, as I don't remember wanting either of those two guys. Does that make it a controversy? I guess. Stewart was the Bears "big" free agent signing after the 4-12 2002 season, and for some reason that was supposed to help them back to the playoffs. Stewart sucked (56.8 rating) and led the Bears to a 1-4 start in 2003, including such whoppers as a 49-7 loss to San Francisco and a 38-23 loss to the Packers on MNF in the first game of the "new" Soldier Field. Chandler came in and went 3-3 over the next six games, despite not playing all that much better than Kordell (61.3 rating), but he was injured against Denver. Kordell had the only good passing game either had all season long in a 28-3 victory over the Cardinals, but any victory over the Cardinals before 2007 doesn't count. The Bears had somehow backed their way into playoff contention, and had a 14-0 lead over Green Bay in Lambeau. After the Packers had managed to regain the lead at 19-14, Stewart drove the team all the way to the Green Bay 10 yard line, but threw an absolutely awful interception which Mike McKenzie returned 90 yards for the clinching score. The Bears were then eliminated from contention, and the Rex Grossman Era began, leaving Absolute Failure as the definitive winner of the Chandler-Stewart debate.
7. Erik Kramer vs. Rick Mirer, 1997
This, sadly, was only a controversy because Dave Wannstedt was the only man left alive in 1997 who thought Rick Mirer could still be a starting quarterback in the National Football League, and the mustachioed bastard traded a first round pick to Seattle in order to acquire the legendary double first round bust. Erik Kramer was only one season removed from the greatest passing season in Bears history, but had lost Wannstedt's confidence after an injury plagued and ineffective 1996 season. Wanny had every intention of starting Mirer from day one, but Rick was supposedly so bad in offseason mini-camps that offensive coordinator Matt Cavanuagh was seen throwing his clipboard at the ground in frustration after yet another Mirer mistake. Kramer started the first three games of the season, but the team was winless in those three games and Mirer was given three starts to show what he could do. They were easily the worst three games a quarterback has ever managed in Bears history, as the team failed to score a single offensive touchdown under Mirer's direction and were outscored 78-23. Mirer was benched, Kramer "led" the team to a 4-6 record the rest of the way, and the Bears parted ways with Mirer after the season. I hate you, Dave Wannstedt
6. Shane Matthews vs. Jim Miller, 2001
Matthews and Miller had both entered the 1999 seasons as the guys who were simply supposed to watch Cade McNown's rise to glory. Both of them had NFL careers that lasted longer than Cade. Miller was the fan favorite of the two, but he had been banned for steroids in 1999 and had made just one start in 2000 before blowing out his ankle. Matthews had been solid but unspectacular in 1999-2000, and since "unspectacular" is the quality John Shoop most admires in his quarterbacks, Matthews got the start at the beginning of the 2001 season. Matthews started the first two games, a loss to Baltimore and a win against Minnesota, but was injured at half time of the Vikings game, and the "win" belonged to Miller, who threw for the Bears only two touchdowns of the season to that point. Miller started the next four games, all wins, for the surprisingly 5-1 Bears. In the fourth game, against the 49ers, Matthews was the one with the late game heroics, rallying the team to an overtime win. Matthews got the start against Cleveland the next week, and came back from a 21-7 deficit to tie the game on a last second Hail Mary (although I maintain that Shane Matthews is the only NFL QB for whom 34 yards constitutes a Hail Mary). The Bears won in overtime for the second consecutive week, but the controversy ended there as Miller came back and the team went 7-2 the rest of the way to finish 13-3. In the playoff game against the Eagles, Miller was knocked out early and Matthews failed to muster much offense as the team lost 33-19. Matthews departed after the season, and Miller suffered through yet another injury plagued season in 2002 before departing as well.
5. Steve Walsh vs. Erik Kramer, 1994
Jim Harbaugh had an absolutely awful last season in Chicago in 1993, and so Wannstedt and Co. decided to replace with Erik Kramer and Steve Walsh, who had previously played for the Lions and the Saints, respectively. While Kramer was the starter from day one thanks to his stronger arm and better track record (10-5 as a starter, 75.5 rating in Detroit vs. Walsh's 11-13 record and 69.1 rating), the Bears were 1-2 in the first three games under Kramer (despite his 254 ypg and sparkling 107.5 rating in those three games) and he was injured in the third game. Walsh started the next three games, which the Bears won to bring their record to 4-2. Kramer came back after the bye, but threw three interceptions in a Bears loss to the Lions and was benched during a blowout against Green Bay. Walsh started every game the rest of the way as the team went 8-3 under his direction, made the playoffs, and even won a first round game against the Vikings before bowing out. While Kramer seemed to simply be the recipient of bad luck (the defense allowed 27 PPG in Kramer's 5 starts but only 16 PPG in Walsh's 11, while the offense actually averaged More points under Kramer's direction), Walsh earned praise as a "game manager." The competition was re-opened in 1995, and while Kramer won and broke every Bears passing record in the book and the team finished an identical 9-7, his bad luck continued as they failed to make the playoffs. Walsh left after the 1995 season, but Kramer had to endure three more years of bad luck and losses in Chicago.
I'm stopping this here for today because I just looked up and realized how incredibly long it's getting. You can look forward to the rest tomorrow or Monday.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Boredom=Preseason Rankings
I'm as bored as one person can possibly get these days. The Blackhawks brought home the title but neglected to think of what I was going to do with my time without them giving me something to watch. The Cubs are so far beyond listless that I can't even bear to feign interest in them. All of this adds up to me engaging in an activity I usually mock: ranking college teams in June. Sure, I usually rank teams in August, but by that point rosters have shaken out and you have a good idea of who is going to take the field for the season opener. At this point a lot of that stuff is still up in the air. But whatever, here's my first go at it:
The SKO College Top 10 Rankings:
1. Alabama- Time tested formula: Last year's champion+Returning Quarterback=Preseason #1
2. Boise State- They have a shit ton of returning starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore. I am focusing all of my positive karma on getting Boise into a national championship game.
3. Ohio State- I'm pretty high on them this year, which is odd, as I'm usually convinced that Ohio State is a paper tiger, but they appear to have closed the gap between them and schools from other BCS conferences. I'm not sure they could handle an SEC champion in the title game, but I think the embarassments of the past are over.
4. Texas- Their defense is largely intact, and it's good enough to carry them while they get things sorted out on offense. Garrett Gilbert didn't embarass himself on the national stage in the championship game, and I think he'll be a fine quarterback.
5. Iowa- I feel...so...cold. I feel this pick is really going to bite me in the ass. Hell, I hope it does. The frustrating thing is that I don't dislike Iowa. I think Kirk Ferentz is an outstanding coach who can somehow make cliches come to life ("It all starts up front!" "Teamwork trumps talent!" "Defense wins (shares) of (Big Ten) championships!"), and you know without a doubt that they're going to have a great offensive line and a great front seven on defense every year. They're everything a Big Ten football team should be. But my God, if you've ever spent an hour of your life in Iowa during football season you want to strangle every single one of their fans. For that reason, I root against them out of spite, because I live amongst the mouth-breathers. Honestly, though, the defense will be as good as expected (it always is), the running game should be much better, and if Ricky Stanzi can cut down on the turnovers while keeping his invincibility in the fourth quarter, the Big Ten will boil down to a two man race between Iowa and OSU.
6. Florida- John Brantley will be a better passer than Tim Tebow ever was, and, while he's not a total behemoth running the ball like Tebow, he can run the option well enough to help move the ball. They return their trio of talented runningbacks, and have enough returning starters on defense to keep them in the top third of the nation in that category.
7. TCU- The team that's gone 23-3 the last two years returns 16 of 22 starters, including most of their stellar running game and senior quarterback Andy Dalton. I'd be shocked if they failed to make another appearance in the BCS this year.
8. Virginia Tech- They only return four of their starters on defense, the key to last year's team, but it won't matter because Frank Beamer always puts out a respectable defense. The important thing for this team is the 8 returning starters on offense. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor became a legitimate threat with his arm down the stretch last season, and he was already a threat with his legs before the year. He'll take a huge step forward this year, helped by the 100 Proof Backfield (brilliance courtesy of these guys ) of halfbacks Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. Williams was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2009, rushing for 1655 and a whopping 21 TDs, while Evans (who missed last year with injury) rushed for 1265 yds and 11 TDs in 2008. As I said last winter, Taylor, Evans, and Williams may dominate like Jason Campbell, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams did while leading Auburn to an undefeated season in 2004.
9. Georgia Tech- My love of the triple option continues unabated, despite their disheartening loss to Iowa's stingy defense in the Sugar Bowl. While they lose man beast Jonathan Dwyer at runningback, they still return their other two starting runningbacks from last year as well as quarterback and 1,000 yard rusher Josh Nesbitt (who should be better at throwing the ball this year as well). They also return eight starters from last year's defense, so that experience should hopefully help them improve on that side of the ball.
10. Penn State- I'd have had Oregon here before Jeremiah Masoli went all Marcus Vick on everybody and ended his college career early in a cloud of arrests. PSU loses Darryl Clark, who could always be relied upon to suck in big games, but returns most of the starters on their stout offensive and defensive lines as well as RB Evan Royster. I guess they make the top ten.
I'm wrapping this up here because I don't like to do 11-25 during the season when I have way more information at hand, and I hate it even more during the preseason.
The SKO College Top 10 Rankings:
1. Alabama- Time tested formula: Last year's champion+Returning Quarterback=Preseason #1
2. Boise State- They have a shit ton of returning starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore. I am focusing all of my positive karma on getting Boise into a national championship game.
3. Ohio State- I'm pretty high on them this year, which is odd, as I'm usually convinced that Ohio State is a paper tiger, but they appear to have closed the gap between them and schools from other BCS conferences. I'm not sure they could handle an SEC champion in the title game, but I think the embarassments of the past are over.
4. Texas- Their defense is largely intact, and it's good enough to carry them while they get things sorted out on offense. Garrett Gilbert didn't embarass himself on the national stage in the championship game, and I think he'll be a fine quarterback.
5. Iowa- I feel...so...cold. I feel this pick is really going to bite me in the ass. Hell, I hope it does. The frustrating thing is that I don't dislike Iowa. I think Kirk Ferentz is an outstanding coach who can somehow make cliches come to life ("It all starts up front!" "Teamwork trumps talent!" "Defense wins (shares) of (Big Ten) championships!"), and you know without a doubt that they're going to have a great offensive line and a great front seven on defense every year. They're everything a Big Ten football team should be. But my God, if you've ever spent an hour of your life in Iowa during football season you want to strangle every single one of their fans. For that reason, I root against them out of spite, because I live amongst the mouth-breathers. Honestly, though, the defense will be as good as expected (it always is), the running game should be much better, and if Ricky Stanzi can cut down on the turnovers while keeping his invincibility in the fourth quarter, the Big Ten will boil down to a two man race between Iowa and OSU.
6. Florida- John Brantley will be a better passer than Tim Tebow ever was, and, while he's not a total behemoth running the ball like Tebow, he can run the option well enough to help move the ball. They return their trio of talented runningbacks, and have enough returning starters on defense to keep them in the top third of the nation in that category.
7. TCU- The team that's gone 23-3 the last two years returns 16 of 22 starters, including most of their stellar running game and senior quarterback Andy Dalton. I'd be shocked if they failed to make another appearance in the BCS this year.
8. Virginia Tech- They only return four of their starters on defense, the key to last year's team, but it won't matter because Frank Beamer always puts out a respectable defense. The important thing for this team is the 8 returning starters on offense. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor became a legitimate threat with his arm down the stretch last season, and he was already a threat with his legs before the year. He'll take a huge step forward this year, helped by the 100 Proof Backfield (brilliance courtesy of these guys ) of halfbacks Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. Williams was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2009, rushing for 1655 and a whopping 21 TDs, while Evans (who missed last year with injury) rushed for 1265 yds and 11 TDs in 2008. As I said last winter, Taylor, Evans, and Williams may dominate like Jason Campbell, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams did while leading Auburn to an undefeated season in 2004.
9. Georgia Tech- My love of the triple option continues unabated, despite their disheartening loss to Iowa's stingy defense in the Sugar Bowl. While they lose man beast Jonathan Dwyer at runningback, they still return their other two starting runningbacks from last year as well as quarterback and 1,000 yard rusher Josh Nesbitt (who should be better at throwing the ball this year as well). They also return eight starters from last year's defense, so that experience should hopefully help them improve on that side of the ball.
10. Penn State- I'd have had Oregon here before Jeremiah Masoli went all Marcus Vick on everybody and ended his college career early in a cloud of arrests. PSU loses Darryl Clark, who could always be relied upon to suck in big games, but returns most of the starters on their stout offensive and defensive lines as well as RB Evan Royster. I guess they make the top ten.
I'm wrapping this up here because I don't like to do 11-25 during the season when I have way more information at hand, and I hate it even more during the preseason.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
A Quick Note on Pressure
In reference to my previous post about Aaron Rodgers actually having more protection than Jay Cutler, the awesome website ProFootballFocus.com keeps statistics on how often a quarterback is pressured and how they perform under said pressure. Cutler was, in fact, pressured on a whopping 32.3% of his passing attempts last year, vs. 31.7% for Rodgers. So Cutler was pressured more often. However, I can't lie, Rodgers response to the pressure that he faced was otherwordly. He had a 104.2 rating under pressure, which was the best in the league by 35 points. Cutler was at 51.2, which was about league average.
My only caveat, however, would be that, like sacks, not all pressure is created equal. One pass rusher coming at a quarterback from around the right tackle is not the same as the complete and total breakdowns in protection that Jay often encountered. Either way, however, the stats tend to bear out the fact that Cutler fares about as well as most other quarterbacks when under severe pressure. He just got pressured more often than all but four others (David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, and Alex Smith). Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is some kind of amazing quarterback. I hate you, Aaron Rodgers. At the bottom of my gut, with every inch of me, I plain, straight hate you. But dammit, do I respect you!
My only caveat, however, would be that, like sacks, not all pressure is created equal. One pass rusher coming at a quarterback from around the right tackle is not the same as the complete and total breakdowns in protection that Jay often encountered. Either way, however, the stats tend to bear out the fact that Cutler fares about as well as most other quarterbacks when under severe pressure. He just got pressured more often than all but four others (David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, and Alex Smith). Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is some kind of amazing quarterback. I hate you, Aaron Rodgers. At the bottom of my gut, with every inch of me, I plain, straight hate you. But dammit, do I respect you!
Monday, June 7, 2010
The Meatheads Were Right, it was Turner's Fault
This article is obviously pretty old (and came before Jay's two game hot streak to end the year), but I found it to be an extremely good explanation of Jay's struggles last year, and why I think he'll improve this year.
While the author agrees that Jay's problems tend to stem from "the cumulative effect of a lot of things. One is an offensive line that is probably the worst in pro football. As you play more and more games, and there's more and more pressure, a quarterback who is not naturally mechanically sound, will become worse because no one likes to have people in their face all the time. Very often, when quarterbacks take shots early in games, you see them start to lose their mechanics over the course of a game, get rid of the ball too early, start to play too fast..." all of which is accurate, I found his critique of Ron Turner's abuse of Jay and terrible play-calling to be most interesting.
"But what happens to that talent if there's no room for it? Against the Vikings, Cutler came out of the box in a way that told me two things: First, the Bears' coaching staff was setting things up to eliminate risk. Second, anything but dink-and-dunk when you're looking at a Jared Allen-Orlando Pace matchup is just nonsensical. On Cutler's second throw of the game, on second-and-3 from his own 42 with 10:58 left in the first quarter, Allen got around Pace with no resistance whatsoever, and Cutler bailed out to Earl Bennett at the line of scrimmage for a loss of two yards. When Cutler hit tight end Greg Olsen for a three-yard out on third-and-five, Olsen could gain only one more yard after the catch because cornerback Cedric Griffin and linebacker Chad Greenway were playing close in, waiting for the short pass, and knowing that the Bears had admitted defeat in a strategic sense. Three quick passes, and a three-and-out.
It was difficult to know what to make of Cutler's mechanics early on -- the guy's obviously talented enough to complete quick outs -- but I was astonished to see Pace get no help with Allen on any of those plays. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner managed to combine the protection leakage of wide sets with the inflexible non-production of a quick-screen-only offense. It was mind-blowing."
One of my biggest problems last year was watching Ron Turner completely obliterate the faith that I'd shown in him before last year. Before last season I had, optimistically, chosen to dismiss the Bears offensive struggles under Turner with the notion that a "real" quarterback would fix them. It didn't. Now, Turner's problem lays not with his "predictability" or whatever lame excuse the media chose to pin his struggles on, but his adaptability. He simply has no idea how to react to changing situations. It was apparent early on that the Bears offensive line was not good enough to run the power offense that Turner wanted to run. His response was to continue calling plays as if it was, based on some miniscule hope that the line simply needed to "gel." It wasn't until Chris Williams took over at left tackle and the line play improved slightly that Turner even attempted to mix things up. During the Vikings and Lions games to end the season he did a good job of moving the pocket and taking advantage of Jay's ability to throw on the run, something the statuesque quarterbacks Turner has dealt with the in the past (Orton, Griese, Grossman, Kramer, Walsh) were unable to do.
This was a recurring problem for Turner throughout both of his tours with the Bears. When he can run the offense he wants to run, like in 1995 and the early parts of 2006 and 2008, and his offensive line blocks and the run game works well, he can score a lot of points. When teams figured him and Rex Grossman out in 2006 and started to put pressure on Rex, Turner failed miserably at adapting and adjusting protection schemes and finding ways to take advantage of the defense's emphasis on blitzing. Last year he seemed overmatched and completely unable to adjust to utilize Cutler's natural talents to overcome the schematic and protection deficiencies of the offense.
If I dare say it (and again, Every positive prediction I make about Jay Cutler and the Bears offense this year hinges on whether or not the offensive line can improve), I have hope that Mike Martz can improve both of these problems. Martz has justifiably acquired a status as a quarterback guru, as guys like Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Jon Kitna were undoubtedly better under his tutelage then they were beforehand (or in Bulger's case, afterwards). He knows how to preach the fundamentals of the position, such as proper footwork, Jay's biggest problem area. I truly believe he can make Jay a more technically sound player.
Schematically, I think Martz is a much brighter individual than Ron Turner. He has shown an ability to adapt to poor personnel in order to generate some semblance of offense. People can criticize the Lions or 49ers win-loss records during Martz' tenures as offensive coordinator, but both teams scored significantly more points under Martz than they had without him. The 2006-2007 Lions were the only Lion teams since 2002 to score more than 300 points in a season. Martz' 2008 49ers scored more points than any 49ers team since 2003. He made Jon Kitna into a 4,000 yard passer in two straight years. I've said over and over again that he has far more talent to work with in Chicago than he has since St. Louis. He'll figure out how to utilize that talent much better than Ron ever would have.
I still don't like him, though.
While the author agrees that Jay's problems tend to stem from "the cumulative effect of a lot of things. One is an offensive line that is probably the worst in pro football. As you play more and more games, and there's more and more pressure, a quarterback who is not naturally mechanically sound, will become worse because no one likes to have people in their face all the time. Very often, when quarterbacks take shots early in games, you see them start to lose their mechanics over the course of a game, get rid of the ball too early, start to play too fast..." all of which is accurate, I found his critique of Ron Turner's abuse of Jay and terrible play-calling to be most interesting.
"But what happens to that talent if there's no room for it? Against the Vikings, Cutler came out of the box in a way that told me two things: First, the Bears' coaching staff was setting things up to eliminate risk. Second, anything but dink-and-dunk when you're looking at a Jared Allen-Orlando Pace matchup is just nonsensical. On Cutler's second throw of the game, on second-and-3 from his own 42 with 10:58 left in the first quarter, Allen got around Pace with no resistance whatsoever, and Cutler bailed out to Earl Bennett at the line of scrimmage for a loss of two yards. When Cutler hit tight end Greg Olsen for a three-yard out on third-and-five, Olsen could gain only one more yard after the catch because cornerback Cedric Griffin and linebacker Chad Greenway were playing close in, waiting for the short pass, and knowing that the Bears had admitted defeat in a strategic sense. Three quick passes, and a three-and-out.
It was difficult to know what to make of Cutler's mechanics early on -- the guy's obviously talented enough to complete quick outs -- but I was astonished to see Pace get no help with Allen on any of those plays. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner managed to combine the protection leakage of wide sets with the inflexible non-production of a quick-screen-only offense. It was mind-blowing."
One of my biggest problems last year was watching Ron Turner completely obliterate the faith that I'd shown in him before last year. Before last season I had, optimistically, chosen to dismiss the Bears offensive struggles under Turner with the notion that a "real" quarterback would fix them. It didn't. Now, Turner's problem lays not with his "predictability" or whatever lame excuse the media chose to pin his struggles on, but his adaptability. He simply has no idea how to react to changing situations. It was apparent early on that the Bears offensive line was not good enough to run the power offense that Turner wanted to run. His response was to continue calling plays as if it was, based on some miniscule hope that the line simply needed to "gel." It wasn't until Chris Williams took over at left tackle and the line play improved slightly that Turner even attempted to mix things up. During the Vikings and Lions games to end the season he did a good job of moving the pocket and taking advantage of Jay's ability to throw on the run, something the statuesque quarterbacks Turner has dealt with the in the past (Orton, Griese, Grossman, Kramer, Walsh) were unable to do.
This was a recurring problem for Turner throughout both of his tours with the Bears. When he can run the offense he wants to run, like in 1995 and the early parts of 2006 and 2008, and his offensive line blocks and the run game works well, he can score a lot of points. When teams figured him and Rex Grossman out in 2006 and started to put pressure on Rex, Turner failed miserably at adapting and adjusting protection schemes and finding ways to take advantage of the defense's emphasis on blitzing. Last year he seemed overmatched and completely unable to adjust to utilize Cutler's natural talents to overcome the schematic and protection deficiencies of the offense.
If I dare say it (and again, Every positive prediction I make about Jay Cutler and the Bears offense this year hinges on whether or not the offensive line can improve), I have hope that Mike Martz can improve both of these problems. Martz has justifiably acquired a status as a quarterback guru, as guys like Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Jon Kitna were undoubtedly better under his tutelage then they were beforehand (or in Bulger's case, afterwards). He knows how to preach the fundamentals of the position, such as proper footwork, Jay's biggest problem area. I truly believe he can make Jay a more technically sound player.
Schematically, I think Martz is a much brighter individual than Ron Turner. He has shown an ability to adapt to poor personnel in order to generate some semblance of offense. People can criticize the Lions or 49ers win-loss records during Martz' tenures as offensive coordinator, but both teams scored significantly more points under Martz than they had without him. The 2006-2007 Lions were the only Lion teams since 2002 to score more than 300 points in a season. Martz' 2008 49ers scored more points than any 49ers team since 2003. He made Jon Kitna into a 4,000 yard passer in two straight years. I've said over and over again that he has far more talent to work with in Chicago than he has since St. Louis. He'll figure out how to utilize that talent much better than Ron ever would have.
I still don't like him, though.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Fun with Hyperbole
A while ago, Mike Martz made waves when he compared this years Bears to the 1999 Rams when speaking with SI's Peter King. Many people mocked the statement, and understandably so. Hyperbole of this sort is common during this period of the offseason, and Martz is no stranger to empty bravado. But since this is the long death march of the offseason, I'm actually going to play devil's advocate for a bit and suggest that perhaps there's a nugget of truth to Martz' statement. Now, in hindsight, knowing what the Rams did from 1999-2003 when they scored 500 points in a season three times (and 447 in 2003), went 56-24, appeared in two Superbowls, won one, and went to the playoffs four times, this statement looks utterly ridiculous. However, no one knows yet what the 2010 Bears offense will do, as it's the preseason. So perhaps it's best to look at what the 1999 Rams looked like BEFORE taking the field, and compare them to the 2010 Bears.
The 1998 Rams (whom Martz was not affiliated with) had gone 4-12. They had the league's
27th ranked offense in yardage and 24th ranked in points. They were 29th in rushing offense and 22nd in passing.
The 2009 Bears were 7-9. They had the league's 23rd ranked offense in yardage and 19th in points. They were 29th in rushing and 17th in passing.
The quarterback of the 1999 Rams was Kurt Warner. Before the 1999 season he was an undrafted nobody who'd only thrown 11 career passes. After Martz' arrival he became a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback.
The quarterback of the 2010 Bears is Jay Cutler. He's often regarded as the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL. In 2008 He led the NFL in passing yards. He was the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 2 or more touchdown passes in his first four games. Even in the worst year of his career last year he was 13th in the NFL in passing yards and 8th in touchdown passes. He arguably has far more potential than any quarterback Martz has ever worked with, including Warner.
The runningback of the 1999 Rams was Marshall Faulk. He was an undeniably great runningback, and a dual threat as a runner and receiver, but look at his career averages before Martz:
Rushing: 1,064 yds , 8 tds, 3.8 ypa
Receiving: 561 tds, 2 tds, 9.4 ypc
And compare that to Matt Forte, the presumptive starter for the 2010 Bears:
Rushing: 1,084 yds, 6 tds, 3.8 ypa
Receiving: 474 yds, 2 tds, 7.9 ypc.
Forte's numbers are remarkably similar, and he's actually drawn a great deal of comparisons throughout his career to Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook, and other Pro-Bowl caliber dual threat runningbacks. The potential is there for Forte to explode in a similar manner to Faulk.
The top four wide receivers of the 1999 St. Louis Rams were Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ricky Proehl. The top four wide receivers of the Chicago Bears will be (in some order) Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and Earl Bennett.
Of the Rams group, only Isaac Bruce was a proven quantity. He was a 6th year veteran who had averaged 932 yards receiving and 6 tds during his first five years. The Bears don't have anything quite close to Bruce's level, but they do have Devin Hester, a guy with certifiably great skills who was on pace for a 1,000 yd receiving season before suffering a series of injuries last year.
Torry Holt was an unproven rookie, so second year man Johnny Knox at least has the edge in experience, as he showed great promise last year by catching 45 passes for 527 yards and 5 TDs, despite making the leap all the way from FCS school Abilene Christian. Knox also has comparable speed to the young Holt.
Az-Zahir Hakim made a name for himself as the slot receiver in Martz' offense, but before Martz' arrival he had just 20 receptions for 247 yards and a TD, much like Aromashodu, who showed great potential when given a chance last year has only amassed 31 catches for 394 yds and 4 tds in his career.
Ricky Proehl was a savvy veteran who'd carved out a niche for himself as a great possession receiver and had averaged 634 yds receiving and 4 tds a season before 1999. Earl Bennett also established himself as a reliable, chain-moving possession man, with 54 receptions for 717 yds and 2 TDs in his first year starting.
At tight end, the Rams had Roland Williams, a quality blocking tight end who had just just 15 receptions for 144 yards in his career before Martz' arrival.
The Bears arguably have a great advantage here, with Brandon Manumaleuna as a great option on the line at tight end and Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark as pass catchers, a new element Martz claims he will utilize this year.
On the offensive line, the 1999 Rams had future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace, who at that time was a promising young tackle entering his third year. At guard, they had another Pro-Bowler in fifth year starter Adam Timmerman, and first time starter Tom Nutten. At center they had unhailed third year starter Mike Gruttadaria, and at right tackle they had fourth-year man and future Pro Bowler Fred Miller.
On the offensive line, the 2010 Bears also have a third year, former first-round pick at left tackle in Chris Williams, who has received a lot of praise for his work towards the end of last season. That's pretty much where the comparisons end. Somewhere out of the group of Kevin Shaffer, Lance Louis, Johan Asiata, Olin Kreutz, Josh Beekman, Frank Omiyale, and Roberto Garza the Bears have to craft a capable offensive line. I don't know if they can do it, but perhaps it's worth noting that the Rams, who cleared the way for the league's top ranked passing attack and 5th ranked rushing attack, had been downright awful the year before as well, giving up 47 sacks.
So what does this all mean? Well, I'm going to put this part in bold because mindless trolls who read this would most likely ignore it and say something to the effect of "this guy thinks the Bears are gonna score 526 points and win the Superbowl LOLZ?", what it means is that the Bears may actually have more talent on offense than people realize, and that Martz may not be crazy in thinking that the Bears have more talent (on paper) going into this season than the 1999 Rams appeared to have going into that season. Does that mean they'll be able to do what those guys did? Probably not, but a capable offense seems within reach if the offensive line keeps Jay Cutler alive (a dubious proposition, indeed).
The 1998 Rams (whom Martz was not affiliated with) had gone 4-12. They had the league's
27th ranked offense in yardage and 24th ranked in points. They were 29th in rushing offense and 22nd in passing.
The 2009 Bears were 7-9. They had the league's 23rd ranked offense in yardage and 19th in points. They were 29th in rushing and 17th in passing.
The quarterback of the 1999 Rams was Kurt Warner. Before the 1999 season he was an undrafted nobody who'd only thrown 11 career passes. After Martz' arrival he became a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback.
The quarterback of the 2010 Bears is Jay Cutler. He's often regarded as the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL. In 2008 He led the NFL in passing yards. He was the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 2 or more touchdown passes in his first four games. Even in the worst year of his career last year he was 13th in the NFL in passing yards and 8th in touchdown passes. He arguably has far more potential than any quarterback Martz has ever worked with, including Warner.
The runningback of the 1999 Rams was Marshall Faulk. He was an undeniably great runningback, and a dual threat as a runner and receiver, but look at his career averages before Martz:
Rushing: 1,064 yds , 8 tds, 3.8 ypa
Receiving: 561 tds, 2 tds, 9.4 ypc
And compare that to Matt Forte, the presumptive starter for the 2010 Bears:
Rushing: 1,084 yds, 6 tds, 3.8 ypa
Receiving: 474 yds, 2 tds, 7.9 ypc.
Forte's numbers are remarkably similar, and he's actually drawn a great deal of comparisons throughout his career to Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook, and other Pro-Bowl caliber dual threat runningbacks. The potential is there for Forte to explode in a similar manner to Faulk.
The top four wide receivers of the 1999 St. Louis Rams were Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ricky Proehl. The top four wide receivers of the Chicago Bears will be (in some order) Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, and Earl Bennett.
Of the Rams group, only Isaac Bruce was a proven quantity. He was a 6th year veteran who had averaged 932 yards receiving and 6 tds during his first five years. The Bears don't have anything quite close to Bruce's level, but they do have Devin Hester, a guy with certifiably great skills who was on pace for a 1,000 yd receiving season before suffering a series of injuries last year.
Torry Holt was an unproven rookie, so second year man Johnny Knox at least has the edge in experience, as he showed great promise last year by catching 45 passes for 527 yards and 5 TDs, despite making the leap all the way from FCS school Abilene Christian. Knox also has comparable speed to the young Holt.
Az-Zahir Hakim made a name for himself as the slot receiver in Martz' offense, but before Martz' arrival he had just 20 receptions for 247 yards and a TD, much like Aromashodu, who showed great potential when given a chance last year has only amassed 31 catches for 394 yds and 4 tds in his career.
Ricky Proehl was a savvy veteran who'd carved out a niche for himself as a great possession receiver and had averaged 634 yds receiving and 4 tds a season before 1999. Earl Bennett also established himself as a reliable, chain-moving possession man, with 54 receptions for 717 yds and 2 TDs in his first year starting.
At tight end, the Rams had Roland Williams, a quality blocking tight end who had just just 15 receptions for 144 yards in his career before Martz' arrival.
The Bears arguably have a great advantage here, with Brandon Manumaleuna as a great option on the line at tight end and Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark as pass catchers, a new element Martz claims he will utilize this year.
On the offensive line, the 1999 Rams had future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace, who at that time was a promising young tackle entering his third year. At guard, they had another Pro-Bowler in fifth year starter Adam Timmerman, and first time starter Tom Nutten. At center they had unhailed third year starter Mike Gruttadaria, and at right tackle they had fourth-year man and future Pro Bowler Fred Miller.
On the offensive line, the 2010 Bears also have a third year, former first-round pick at left tackle in Chris Williams, who has received a lot of praise for his work towards the end of last season. That's pretty much where the comparisons end. Somewhere out of the group of Kevin Shaffer, Lance Louis, Johan Asiata, Olin Kreutz, Josh Beekman, Frank Omiyale, and Roberto Garza the Bears have to craft a capable offensive line. I don't know if they can do it, but perhaps it's worth noting that the Rams, who cleared the way for the league's top ranked passing attack and 5th ranked rushing attack, had been downright awful the year before as well, giving up 47 sacks.
So what does this all mean? Well, I'm going to put this part in bold because mindless trolls who read this would most likely ignore it and say something to the effect of "this guy thinks the Bears are gonna score 526 points and win the Superbowl LOLZ?", what it means is that the Bears may actually have more talent on offense than people realize, and that Martz may not be crazy in thinking that the Bears have more talent (on paper) going into this season than the 1999 Rams appeared to have going into that season. Does that mean they'll be able to do what those guys did? Probably not, but a capable offense seems within reach if the offensive line keeps Jay Cutler alive (a dubious proposition, indeed).
Friday, May 28, 2010
Start or Sit Bradford? It May not Make a Difference.
I read an article a few weeks ago by a St. Louis journalist (I can't remember which one and I didn't want to look it up again because it sort of sucked, but I'd bet it was Bernie Miklasz. If it's St. Louis and it's awful, it's Bernie) who said that the Rams should start Bradford all year. My knee jerk reaction was to say that that was a terrible idea, since St. Louis' offense is royally boned outside of Steven Jackson (do the names Daniel Fells, Donnie Avery, Mardy Gilyard, or Keenan Burton mean anything to you?) and Bradford and his injured shoulder would have to be under fire behind a terrible offensive line with very little to throw to at wide receiver. Knee jerk reactions never last, however, so I decided to crunch the numbers on 1st round quarterbacks and the number of games they start their rookie year. The conclusion I came to, surprisingly, is that it doesn't appear to matter whether Bradford starts 0 games or 16.For this study, I looked at all 61 quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 1983 (the greatest quarterback draft ever and the one that featured three of the first truly modern quarterbacks of our era in Marino, Elway, and Kelly) and the present. I threw out every player who hadn't been in the league for three years, since, fair or not, that seems to be the evaluation period given to everyone in the NFL, which dropped the number down to 54. Of those 54, I came up with 23 that I considered "Busts", 18 "Average" QBs, and 13 "Franchise" QBs.
Out of those 54 quarterbacks, 13 didn't start a single game their rookie year. Four of those quarterbacks became Franchise players (Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Jim Kelly (for fairness sake, it should be noted that Kelly spent two seasons playing for the USFL's Houston Gamblers), five became average, serviceable starters (Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, Jim Harbaugh, and Ken O'Brien), while four went bust (Brady Quinn, JP Losman, Kelly Stouffer, and Todd Blackledge). Obviously the results of this group show that sitting the bench for one's rookie year has no quantifiable effect on future performance, as the distribution is almost identical for each group (4 franchise, 5 average, 4 busts.)
The biggest, and least successful group, were the 20 quarterbacks who started 1-5 games their rookie year. Only one Franchise quarterback is in this group (Steve McNair), while there are a whopping 11 busts (JaMarcus Russell, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Jim Druckenmiller, Trent Dilfer, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Andre Ware, and Chuck Long), and 8 average QBs (Rex Grossman, Michael Vick, Vinny Testaverde, Chris Miller, Jim Everett, Tony Eason). My logic as to why this group is so unsuccessful? Looking at those busts, almost all (outside of JaMarcus), were guys with overrated skills that would probably not be first round picks today.Ware and Klingler were average guys who had inflated numbers in a Run N' Shoot offense, Long was simply a guy who started a lot of games at Iowa and thus set a bunch of records, while the others all were lacking in talent as well. The most logical explanation for why those busts failed to start more than 5 games is simply that they weren't talented enough to be the best quarterbacks on the roster, which doesn't appear to be the case for Sam Bradford.
The 6-10 games started group is mostly hit or miss: John Elway, Dan Marino, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb were/are all franchise players, while Kyle Boller, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, and Cade McNown went bust, and only Alex Smith appears to be blossoming into an average quarterback.
The 11-15 games group has only a few names at the extremities (Aikman and Roethlisberger are franchise guys, Joey Harrington and Matt Leinart are busts), but plenty of average players (Tim Couch, Byron Leftwich, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Jeff George, and Drew Bledsoe).
Only five rookies have started all 16 games in that time period, two of which don't make this list yet (although if I had to guess, both Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan will be in the Franchise category). Of the three who do, the results are complete polar opposites, with Peyton Manning representing the Franchise QBs and David Carr and Rick Mirer hanging out with the busts.
So what does all this mean for Sam Bradford? Does it really not matter at all how many games he starts? I'm submitting that (outside of the injury risk, which is huge no matter when you play), it really doesn't matter whether he starts or sits. What matters more is the team's approach to him in the future, meaning how do they build their team to help Sam Bradford?
Let's look at the Busts and Franchise QBs on this list and determine why they succeeded or failed, outside of the # of games they started as rookies:
Busts-
JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller, Trent Dilfer, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Chuck Long, and Todd Blackledge.
Now, first of all, in many of these cases, as I mentioned above, the scouting system simply failed and these guys were unsuccessful because they lacked the talent (McNown, Shuler, Maddox, Klingler, McGwire, Ware, Stouffer, Long).
Another group consists of guys who had NFL caliber arms but had accuracy issues and decision-making problems that were destined to preclude them from being consistent NFL starters (Losman, Boller, Ramsey, Akili Smith, Druckenmiller, Dilfer, Blackledge)
All of those guys above were simply just poor draft decisions by the team that took them. The last group (Russell, Quinn, Leinart, Carr, Harrington, Leaf, Mirer, and Marinovich) all failed for a number of reasons. JaMarcus Russell has been dissected a lot since his release, and there are two main reasons for his failure: poor work ethic and a dysfunctional organization. Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart both struggled by being blocked by two guys that weren't Supposed to block them (Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner) and have had to endure changes in the coaching staff and a lack of support from the new regimes. Ryan Leaf , Rick Mirer, and Todd Marinovich all failed for mostly personal reasons (Leaf's immaturity, Mirer's stupidity, and Marinovich's drug habits).
Harrington and Carr, however, arguably failed because of terrible supporting casts. Carr had a god awful offensive line that allowed him to get sacked 72 times as a rookie and 249 times total (an average of almost 3 1/2 sacks per game) during his time with the Texans, and was never the same afterwards. Harrington had a good offensive line, but mediocre talent at runningback (James Stewart, Kevin Jones), notoriously terrible draft picks at wide receiver (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams), and a truly dysfunctional organization that had no idea how to handle a young quarterback. No one can ever truly absolve Harrington or Carr of All of the blame, I suppose, but they were placed in extremely difficult situations.
Harrington and Carr, however, arguably failed because of terrible supporting casts. Carr had a god awful offensive line that allowed him to get sacked 72 times as a rookie and 249 times total (an average of almost 3 1/2 sacks per game) during his time with the Texans, and was never the same afterwards. Harrington had a good offensive line, but mediocre talent at runningback (James Stewart, Kevin Jones), notoriously terrible draft picks at wide receiver (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams), and a truly dysfunctional organization that had no idea how to handle a young quarterback. No one can ever truly absolve Harrington or Carr of All of the blame, I suppose, but they were placed in extremely difficult situations.
Now, looking at the 13 franchise quarterbacks-
Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly
-One theme is fairly common here. Almost all of them played for good teams when they were rookies. Rivers, Palmer, Rodgers, and Kelly didn't play their rookie years, but the Chargers were a winning team the two seasons in which Rivers sat the bench and had an extremely talented core around him when he finally did take over in 2006 and went 14-2. Carson Palmer's Bengals were 8-8 in his rookie year and his first year as a starter in 2004, and featured a talented group of wide receivers with Chad Ochocinco (nee Johnson) and TJ Houshmanzadeh, as well as a strong running game with Rudi Johnson. Rodgers sat beyond Brett Favre, and while he went 6-10 as a starter his rookie year, he inherited a team that went 13-3 the year before (and 11-5 the year after) and had an extremely talented offensive unit, with wideouts like Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and a strong running game behind Ryan Grant. As I mentioned, Jim Kelly played for the Houston Gamblers of the USFL, and by the time he came to the Bills in 1986 they had the brilliant Marv Leavy at head coach and already had wide receiver Andre Reed. Despite going 4-12 in Kelly's "rookie year", the organization was clearly on it's way up.
Of the quarterbacks who did start games their rookie year, 4 of the 9 (Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, John Elway) played for team's with winning records that had talented offensive players around them.
Of the 5 quarterbacks who started for losing teams their rookie years (Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Steve McNair), 4 of the 5 had non-losing records the next year, while 3 of them (the Mannings and McNabb) took teams to the playoffs in their second year, meaning they had teams that rebuilt quickly in other areas as well (the Giants adding Plaxico Burris on offensive to help Eli, the Colts drafting Edgerrin James). McNair's Titans built up a strong offensive line and drafted Eddie George to help in the run game, while Aikman's Cowboys added Emmitt Smith the year after Aikman (as well as Michael Irvin the year Before Aikman) to create the famous "triplets."
So what's the secret to sucess for Sam Bradford? Play for a winning team. Since that looks unlikely, hope to God that the Rams recognize that the most important thing for Bradford's development is to spend high picks the next few years on getting him offensive talent. Steven Jackson should help, but I'm not sure the Rams have the wide receivers or tight ends needed to make plays for Sam, and I'm definitely sure their offensive line is atrocious.
In conclusion, history tells us little as to whether it's better or not for Bradford to start. What it does tell us is that, assuming that he has the talent to be an NFL quarterback to begin with (and I think he does), his team's approach to the 2nd and 3rd years of his career will be far more important. Do they keep the same coaching staff and ensure stability? Do they draft players at their areas of need on offense? Far too many times there are teams like the Lions with Harrington and the Texans with Carr who just assume that quarterbacks will just keep "progressing" until they transform into Pro Bowl quarterbacks. It doesn't work that way. Yes, players should improve each year (Harrington and Carr both did, actually), but they can't take that proverbial "next step" without NFL-quality talent around them. Bradford won't be able to, either.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Tice on the Offensive Line
I think most of us remember Mike Tice as the befuddled-looking coach of the Vikings, but as an offensive line coach he seems to know what he's doing. Here's a really great interview with him from ESPN.com that I highly recommend you all read.
The things I like most are when he talks about what Chris Williams needs to improve upon as well as his potential, rather than just heaping praise upon him like Tom Thayer. I agree that Chris really looked promising after the switch to left tackle. Given the importance of that position, if Chris takes that next step the entire offensive line could improve.
The other thing I really liked was this:
"We’re very athletic. So we’re gonna try to get our guys out in space. I think we’ll be very good in the draw game. I know we’re gonna be able to run the inside zone because in my tenure, everywhere I’ve been, we’ve been able to run the inside zone. So we’ll be able to run the inside zone. We’ll dabble a little bit with power, but probably not as much as they ran it here last year."
Part of the problem with last year's offensive line was Turner's dedication to the power run game. I think the zone run game, and the inside zone particularly, is a great way to open holes through scheming and athleticism rather than pure physical power, and that'll help compensate for some of the issues the line had in blowing their guys off the ball last year. Smarter, not harder, as they say. Obviously, as he says, the draw play should be effective if the passing game improves like it should.
The things I like most are when he talks about what Chris Williams needs to improve upon as well as his potential, rather than just heaping praise upon him like Tom Thayer. I agree that Chris really looked promising after the switch to left tackle. Given the importance of that position, if Chris takes that next step the entire offensive line could improve.
The other thing I really liked was this:
"We’re very athletic. So we’re gonna try to get our guys out in space. I think we’ll be very good in the draw game. I know we’re gonna be able to run the inside zone because in my tenure, everywhere I’ve been, we’ve been able to run the inside zone. So we’ll be able to run the inside zone. We’ll dabble a little bit with power, but probably not as much as they ran it here last year."
Part of the problem with last year's offensive line was Turner's dedication to the power run game. I think the zone run game, and the inside zone particularly, is a great way to open holes through scheming and athleticism rather than pure physical power, and that'll help compensate for some of the issues the line had in blowing their guys off the ball last year. Smarter, not harder, as they say. Obviously, as he says, the draw play should be effective if the passing game improves like it should.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Giving Vince Young a Fair Shake
I don't particularly like Vince Young. I haven't made this a secret. I think his mechanics are vomit-inducing, I hate his side-arm arm slot, he relies too much on his legs, and he, like his predecessor Vick, is a product of too much hype. Iggins!, however, loves the sonofabitch. We made a bet on draft day in 2006, wherein I said that Matt Leinart of all people would be a better NFL quarterback than VY. The best part of it all is that I didn't think that highly of Matt Leinart and still don't. This year will be the first time that both go into camp as the starters for their teams since 2007. Leinart by default, since Kurt Warner retired, and Young because he earned his job back after an impressive late season surge by the Titans under his direction. Since Vince played fairly well (although an 82.8 rating is hardly world beating), I've decided to give him another look. Here is the video of Vince's 99 yard game winning drive against the Cardinals last year, who were ironically being led by Leinart while Warner was out with an injury (Leinart was a respectable 21-31 for 220 yds, 0 tds, 0 ints):
I'm going to go ahead and see what Vince does well, and what he still needs to work on.
At 0:24...his first pass is a good one. He shows really good pocket presence here. Many quarterbacks have a tendency to panic when backed up in their own end zone (see Orlovsky, Dan), and mobile quarterbacks especially tend to feel the need to try and gain some breathing room with their feet. Vince does a good job of shuffling, resetting his feet, and getting the ball to his receiver and giving him a chance to get out of bounds. Golf clap.
At 0:41...his dropback and his footwork are good, but he leads the receiver too much. I still think that damn side arm release of his tends to pull his ball slightly to the right. But I'm nitpicking.
At 0:49...that pass just went too far low and away. My guess there is he needs to get the ball out sooner. Britt initially had a step on his DB. As Bill Walsh would say, when throwing a slant, "throw [the] ball to middle of receiver and above his waist - if anything slow him up to catch it." Sometimes you can get that ball out far enough to lead the receiver and let him run after the catch, but the most important thing, especially in this situation, is to complete the pass.
At 1:13... the 4th down play is a nice read of the coverage. The DB is clearly playing the receiver, so VY did a good job of simply putting it in a spot where Britt could make a play, although he's showing a lot of faith in Britt, because that's not an easy catch at all.
At 1:29...this is just pure luck. The batted pass is the exact reason why I hate that arm slot of his. A guy that's 6'5'' like Vince shouldn't have any trouble clearing the line of scrimmage. By dropping his arm down like he does he negates a few of those inches. The read was okay, as Scaife was open on the crossing route, but he also had Chris Johnson wide open with room to run. I think I'd have liked to see what CJ could do with his speed after you got him the ball in space like that. I'd be willing to bet he'd gain more than Scaife did.
At 1:54...meh.
At 1:57...good read, good ball, good run after the catch. Nice play.
At 2:10...his footwork here is good. I can't see whether any of his other receivers were open, so I don't know if he made a good read or not, but he did a nice job of putting the ball where his receiver was going to get it or no one was.
At 2:18...nice run. He kept his eyes downfield, too, and the decision to run was obviously his last recourse. Nice job to pump fake and freeze the defender long enough to get out of bounds and stop the clock.
At 2:34...good job getting rid of the ball.
At 2:44....this may be his best pass of the drive. Great read..ball comes out quickly and smoothly and the receiver has plenty of time and room to get to the sideline.
At 3:04...another good, quick release. Surprising that the Cardinals didn't try harder to deny the sidelines.
At 3:12...the ball needed to be out sooner. Washington was open, if he brings that ball down a bit and zips it without getting so much air under it..that ball could get there before the safety comes over the top.
At 3:30...another good pass on the crossing route. He's really improved on throwing the ball over the middle of the field.
At 3:50...that was just a bad pass that could have been intercepted if the safety was quicker. His receiver in the right corner of the end zone had a step on his man. If Vince throws that ball towards the right sideline the game could be over right there.
At 4:11...bad decision to run. The pocket wasn't collapsing and the hole wasn't big enough. With just 12 seconds on the game clock you need to throw that ball out of bounds and conserve as much time as possible.
At 4:34...he rushed this throw. I'm not sure why. He set himself up in the pocket well, he had time, and he just rushed it. That ball could have easily been intercepted. Again, I'm not even sure it was the right read. The guy in the right corner of the end zone seems to have a step again. He's not going through his progressions here. He's trying to force it to the middle of the field. Again, I suspect that it's because his accuracy to the right sideline isn't all that great.
At 5:15....the game winner is just an outstanding play by a player who has definitely matured. He had room to run. Not enough to get the touchdown, probably, but enough that two years ago he'd have probably tried and lost the game. He fakes the defense just enough, though, that he can pull up at the line of scrimmage and make a great throw to Britt. It wasn't the easiest ball for Britt to catch, but all you can ask of your quarterback in that situation is to just give his receiver a chance, and that's what Vince did.
Looking over this, and I realize it's an extremely small sample of the 10 starts he made last year...I can really see some actual improvement. His pocket presence is drasticall improved from years past. His footwork is probably the area where he's advanced the most. His decision-making has gotten much better, and he seems to have reached that zone that a guy like Michael Vick never did, where the run is always the last option. He made one hasty, ill-advised run, but that's it. All in all, he's becoming a quarterback.
However, I still see some things here that could be exploited. His arm release will still get him into trouble. If team's really clog his passing lanes he could see a drastic increase in tipped balls, something that's not supposed to happen to a guy his size. I'm also not convinced that he can really make a quick, hard, accurate throw to the right sideline with consistency. There are definitely weaknesses in his game, but nowhere near as many as there were before his benching.
My final verdict? He's going to be better. He may actually be a legitimate starter this year. Granted, I certainly hope not, as I'd like to win my bet, but since that's looking like a longshot anyway, I applaud Vince for actually taking his time on the bench to improve his game.
I'm going to go ahead and see what Vince does well, and what he still needs to work on.
At 0:24...his first pass is a good one. He shows really good pocket presence here. Many quarterbacks have a tendency to panic when backed up in their own end zone (see Orlovsky, Dan), and mobile quarterbacks especially tend to feel the need to try and gain some breathing room with their feet. Vince does a good job of shuffling, resetting his feet, and getting the ball to his receiver and giving him a chance to get out of bounds. Golf clap.
At 0:41...his dropback and his footwork are good, but he leads the receiver too much. I still think that damn side arm release of his tends to pull his ball slightly to the right. But I'm nitpicking.
At 0:49...that pass just went too far low and away. My guess there is he needs to get the ball out sooner. Britt initially had a step on his DB. As Bill Walsh would say, when throwing a slant, "throw [the] ball to middle of receiver and above his waist - if anything slow him up to catch it." Sometimes you can get that ball out far enough to lead the receiver and let him run after the catch, but the most important thing, especially in this situation, is to complete the pass.
At 1:13... the 4th down play is a nice read of the coverage. The DB is clearly playing the receiver, so VY did a good job of simply putting it in a spot where Britt could make a play, although he's showing a lot of faith in Britt, because that's not an easy catch at all.
At 1:29...this is just pure luck. The batted pass is the exact reason why I hate that arm slot of his. A guy that's 6'5'' like Vince shouldn't have any trouble clearing the line of scrimmage. By dropping his arm down like he does he negates a few of those inches. The read was okay, as Scaife was open on the crossing route, but he also had Chris Johnson wide open with room to run. I think I'd have liked to see what CJ could do with his speed after you got him the ball in space like that. I'd be willing to bet he'd gain more than Scaife did.
At 1:54...meh.
At 1:57...good read, good ball, good run after the catch. Nice play.
At 2:10...his footwork here is good. I can't see whether any of his other receivers were open, so I don't know if he made a good read or not, but he did a nice job of putting the ball where his receiver was going to get it or no one was.
At 2:18...nice run. He kept his eyes downfield, too, and the decision to run was obviously his last recourse. Nice job to pump fake and freeze the defender long enough to get out of bounds and stop the clock.
At 2:34...good job getting rid of the ball.
At 2:44....this may be his best pass of the drive. Great read..ball comes out quickly and smoothly and the receiver has plenty of time and room to get to the sideline.
At 3:04...another good, quick release. Surprising that the Cardinals didn't try harder to deny the sidelines.
At 3:12...the ball needed to be out sooner. Washington was open, if he brings that ball down a bit and zips it without getting so much air under it..that ball could get there before the safety comes over the top.
At 3:30...another good pass on the crossing route. He's really improved on throwing the ball over the middle of the field.
At 3:50...that was just a bad pass that could have been intercepted if the safety was quicker. His receiver in the right corner of the end zone had a step on his man. If Vince throws that ball towards the right sideline the game could be over right there.
At 4:11...bad decision to run. The pocket wasn't collapsing and the hole wasn't big enough. With just 12 seconds on the game clock you need to throw that ball out of bounds and conserve as much time as possible.
At 4:34...he rushed this throw. I'm not sure why. He set himself up in the pocket well, he had time, and he just rushed it. That ball could have easily been intercepted. Again, I'm not even sure it was the right read. The guy in the right corner of the end zone seems to have a step again. He's not going through his progressions here. He's trying to force it to the middle of the field. Again, I suspect that it's because his accuracy to the right sideline isn't all that great.
At 5:15....the game winner is just an outstanding play by a player who has definitely matured. He had room to run. Not enough to get the touchdown, probably, but enough that two years ago he'd have probably tried and lost the game. He fakes the defense just enough, though, that he can pull up at the line of scrimmage and make a great throw to Britt. It wasn't the easiest ball for Britt to catch, but all you can ask of your quarterback in that situation is to just give his receiver a chance, and that's what Vince did.
Looking over this, and I realize it's an extremely small sample of the 10 starts he made last year...I can really see some actual improvement. His pocket presence is drasticall improved from years past. His footwork is probably the area where he's advanced the most. His decision-making has gotten much better, and he seems to have reached that zone that a guy like Michael Vick never did, where the run is always the last option. He made one hasty, ill-advised run, but that's it. All in all, he's becoming a quarterback.
However, I still see some things here that could be exploited. His arm release will still get him into trouble. If team's really clog his passing lanes he could see a drastic increase in tipped balls, something that's not supposed to happen to a guy his size. I'm also not convinced that he can really make a quick, hard, accurate throw to the right sideline with consistency. There are definitely weaknesses in his game, but nowhere near as many as there were before his benching.
My final verdict? He's going to be better. He may actually be a legitimate starter this year. Granted, I certainly hope not, as I'd like to win my bet, but since that's looking like a longshot anyway, I applaud Vince for actually taking his time on the bench to improve his game.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Kyle Orton Wasn't Better Than Jay Cutler
I still love ya both
During the season, I wrote this piece discussing the reasons why, despite Kyle's "superior" numbers at the time, the Broncos offense was actually no better than the Bears. While I made a few mistakes and a few wrong predictions (a running theme throughout last year), the overall point still stands: despite the yardage, the pro-style/spread hybrid offense that Josh McDaniels runs is just like any other offense: it takes good players to score a lot of points. This is what I said at the time:
"I've said all along that Josh McDaniels' offense is the perfect scheme for Kyle's strength. It makes use of multiple wide receiver sets, it features a lot of underneath throws and crossing routes, it makes the most of his two good runningbacks (Buckhalter and Moreno, who've combined to give Denver the league's 4th ranked rushing attack), and his four quality wide receivers (Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokely, and Jabar Gaffney), and his two quality tight ends (Daniel Graham, Tony Sheffler). The Broncos offense is basically the closest you'll find to a true spread offense anywhere in the NFL, and that naturally favors our friend Kyle, who ran the "basketball on grass" spread offense of Joe Tiller at Purdue.
A lot of people act like McDaniels' version of the spread, which has worked so well in New England, is the first version of it to hit the NFL. It's not. The Run and Shoot was pretty much the same attack back in the '80s and '90s. A closer version to a pure spread like the ones seen in the NCAA came to our very own Bears in 1999 under Gary Crowton. Remember 1999? The Bears actually had the 3rd ranked passing offense (yardage wise) in the NFL, which was the team's highest finish in that category in the modern era, and that was with the pathetically weak arms of Shane Matthews and Cade F%&king McNown at the helm for 13 games. That team scored just 17 ppg and went 6-10, however. The reason for this was the criticism common to all spread offenses- that they struggle in the red zone.
The problem is that when teams move from the "bend but don't break" philosophy that most defenses are forced to employ to their red zone defenses, the underneath stuff is taken away and teams have to revert to conventional out routes agains tighter coverage, the kinds of throws that NFL quarterbacks are made of. Orton, as we know, struggles with these, and the Broncos offense is a perfect example of the tendency of spread offenses to rack up yards and not points. The Broncos, despite Orton's 1,236 passing yards and the great run game leading to a 6th place ranking in total yards, are just 22nd in the league in scoring at 19.8 ppg.
This offensive scheme worked in New England two years ago and many people took it as proof that the spread could consistently succeed in the NFL. This isn't quite true. The Patriots attack of 2007 worked because it had in Tom Brady and Randy Moss a quarterback who can make all of the throws and a holy terror of a wide receiver. This opened up countless opportunities for Wes Welker underneath and made the whole spread work. Orton, no matter his great stats, isn't Tom Brady. Teams still don't have to cover every inch of the field, and the threat of the deep ball isn't a factor on every single play. Right now the Broncos are getting by on defense, and this offense is controlling the clock and scoring just enough points to win. At some point that probably won't be enough. The Broncos defense isn't the 2000 Ravens or the 2002 Bucs. They'll need an offense that can challenge downfield to win a big game, either to get into the playoffs or to win in the playoffs. We'll see if that works out."
All of that turned out to be true, for the most part. The Broncos defense, while it finished 12th in points allowed and 7th in yardage, was not as good in the second half as it was during that six game streak to start the season, and Orton and the offense failed to compensate by scoring more points. In the end, the Broncos were the league's 20th ranked offense in ppg at 20.4, despite being 13th in passing yards and 18th in rushing yards.
As we know, the Bears offense struggled under Jay Cutler. Cutler had a quarterback rating 10 points lower than Orton and threw 26 picks to Orton's 12, so clearly Orton had the better season, right?
Wrong. I'm actually going to fly in the face of most of my stat-based reasoning and state that it was, at worst, a wash, and at best, that Cutler was better.
Why? Because Orton's numbers are hollow. He had more yards than Cutler, he took fewer sacks, he had a much better running game in support, and yet the Bears offense outscored the Broncos. The Broncos scored 326 points last year. Subtracting the four special teams and defensive touchdowns they scored 298 points, or 18.6 ppg. The Bears scored 327 points. Minus the two touchdowns they scored on special teams (0 on defense), the offense scored 313, or 19.6 ppg. Neither total is outstanding, but it's curious that the Bears managed to outscore the Broncos despite having the 23 ranked offense in yardage to the Broncos 15th. The Bears outscored the Broncos despite turning the ball over 34 times, compared to 23 for Denver.
How did this happen? Well, here's my hypothesis: Cutler has the arm that Orton doesn't. The Bears, for all of their turnovers and struggles in the red zone, simply scored more touchdowns than the Broncos did. Sure, Orton may have thrown the ball away and gotten the team a field goal where Cutler threw an interception, but the fact is, Cutler got his team enough touchdowns that it didn't matter. He outscored Orton. Like I've said, the spread offense does a great job of helping an offense that would otherwise be completely inept move the ball. Those field goals certainly helped the Broncos. In order to take the next step, however, they need a quarterback who can take advantage when the defense tightens up and the underneath routes won't get you into the end zone. Jay Cutler could have been that guy.
I'm not saying Jay Cutler had a good year this year. I'm not really saying Kyle Orton had a bad year. For his abilities, it was a great year of doing what he does best, the oft-maligned cliché of "managing the game." The offense allowed the Broncos to stay in games and be respectable. Orton played as well as he could with a great supporting cast, but was ultimately unable to be a game-changing quarterback. Cutler played below his abilities in many cases, but was also let down by his offensive line. The best conclusion you can draw from all of this is that Bears fans who think they would have been better off with Kyle Orton last year are wrong, while Broncos fans who think they might have been better off with Jay Cutler are probably right.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Kyle's Next Stop
The Denver Broncos have four quarterbacks on their roster. One is last year's starter, our patron saint, Kyle Orton. One is Brady (Rhymes with Lady) Quinn. One is second year player Tom Brandstater, who Josh McDaniel apparently thinks highly of. The fourth is Tim Tebow. No team really carries four quarterbacks. Oh sure, every team that has four decent options always says in May that they might, but by September one of those guys is on the practice squad or on the street. Common sense would seem to dictate that Brandstater get the axe, but most reports actually have the Broncos considering moving Kyle Orton. Those bastards.
Granted, the original source of these rumors was Woody Page, who is a notorious asshat. However, Michael Lombardi of NFL Network has also stated that he believes the Broncos will move Orton, and I actually like that guy. While that jackass Page says that "Orton is an average quarterback who couldn't start for 21 other teams in the league," I'm going to go ahead and look at all 31 teams in the NFL other than the Broncos and gauge the possibility that they might be interested in Kyle. I'll rank each team's potential need/interest in Kyle from low to high.
Buffalo Bills- Right now they have Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, and unheralded rookie Levi Brown. They could definitely use what Kyle Orton brings to the table. Edwards proved last year that he's incapable of handling the pressure of playing behind a subpar offensive line, as he regressed to a 73.8 rating and threw for just 146 ypg in his third year. Fitzpatrick sucks. Brohm has proven to be such a poor fit for the NFL that he couldn't even hack it as the Packers third string quarterback, a mighty fall for a guy who was originally supposed to be the top pick in the 2008 draft. Buffalo, therefore, makes the HIGH category.
Miami Dolphins- Chad Henne is the future there, and they have Chad Pennington coming back in reserve, along with Pat White and former Kansas City quarterback Tyler Thigpen. LOW.
New York Jets- Mark Sanchez is the franchise, Kellen Clemens is a serviceable backup with a strong arm. Third stringer Erik Ainge is entering his third year as the third stinger. LOW.
New England Patriots- The Patriots have their usual group of no names and rookies behind Tom Brady (Brian Hoyer, Jeff Rowe, Zac Robinson), and, as usual, seem uninterested in changing that. Low.
Cleveland Browns- Well, god knows they could USE Kyle Orton, with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace competing for the starting job, but having just acquired those two and having just drafted Colt McCoy, I don't see a trade happening. LOW.
Cincinnati Bengals- Carson Palmer doesn't seem healthy anymore, and JT O'Sullivan hasn't ever impresesd. Jordan Palmer is only there because of his brother. MODERATE, just because Cincy may want some insurance.
Baltimore Ravens- They're set with Joe Flacco, fourth-year man Troy Smith, and John Beck, who's played for Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron all of his career in both Miami and Baltimore. LOW.
Pittsburgh Steelers- They've already stocked themselves up on quarterbacks to prepare for Roethlisberger's suspension. Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich all know their offense and would be ready to start right now. LOW.
Indianapolis Colts- Peyton Manning's never missed a game, and his back up is actually Kyle Orton's successor at Purdue, Curtis Painter. LOW.
Jacksonville Jaguars- They're unhappy with David Garrard and both the owner and the head coach have called him out in the media over the last few months. They reportedly called the Broncos and asked about Brady Quinn and got rebuffed. Luke McCown and an undrafted rookie named Trevor Harris are their only back ups. They could just ask for the other veteran Bronco QB. HIGH.
Houston Texans- They have Matt Schaub, who has a history of getting hurt. His backups are Dan Orlovsky and John David Booty, who both suck. Moderate, just in case they realize how badly they're screwed if Schaub gets hurt again.
Tennessee Titans- Vince Young is determined to prove me wrong, and has thus reclaimed his starting job so that he may once again fail epically. Kerry Collins is, on last report, still alive and sober and is the back up quarterback. They've got Chris Simms and rookie Rusty Smith as well. LOW.
San Diego Chargers- They've got Philip Rivers and Volektricity, and for some unknown reason they drafted Jonathan Crompton. LOW.
Kansas City Chiefs- They gave Matt Cassel (who is actually just Kyle Orton with better PR) a 63 million dollar contract and they still have Brodie Croyle, who I think would actually be a better starter. They've also got former Patriot back-up Matt Gutierrez. LOW.
Oakland Raiders- They just traded for Jason Campbell and still have Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski, and Kyle Boller competing for the #2 and #3 spots. LOW.
Dallas Cowboys- They have Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, and second-year player Stephen McGee. LOW.
Philadelphia Eagles- They're committed to Kevin Kolb and have the league's most famous back-up in Michael Vick. They also just drafted Mike Kafka. LOW.
New York Giants- They have Eli Manning, Jim Sorgi, and Rhett Bomar. LOW.
Washington Redskins- They have the oft-injured Donovan McNabb, and the oft-intercepted Rex Grossman. They may spring for a reliable back-up. MODERATE.
Chicago Bears- Well, Martz wants a veteran back up? I don't think Kyle's a good fit for the offense though. LOW.
Detroit Lions- Stafford is the guy, and they've signed Shaun Hill to back him up. Drew Stanton is still there, too. LOW.
Green Bay Packers- They've got Matt Flynn and Chris Pizzoti behind Aaron Rodgers, who takes a lot of hits. They may want a veteran back up, although this would be heartbreaking indeed. MODERATE.
Minnesota Vikings- I'm sure Favre is coming back, and they already have Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. LOW.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Josh Freeman is the guy, and they like Josh Johnson as his back-up, and Jon Gruden is no longer there to collect 9,000 quarterbacks. LOW.
Atlanta Falcons- They're set with Matt Ryan and serviceable veteran Chris Redman. DJ Shockley and John Parker Wilson aren't bad options at third string. LOW.
Carolina Panthers- Matt Moore played pretty well last year, and they just drafted Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike to amp up the competition. LOW.
New Orleans Saints- All that they've got behind Breesus is Chase Daniel. They could use an insurance plan. Moderate.
Arizona Cardinals- They have to choose between the suck of Matt Leinart and the suck of Derek Anderson, but they won't be in the market for another potential starter. LOW.
San Francisco 49ers- Despite playing well last year, Alex Smith still has a lot to prove. He could falter again, and back-ups David Carr and Nate Davis are unimpressive. It's unlikely that they'd go outside to find help, but it's not impossible. MODERATE.
St. Louis Rams- Honestly, this makes the most possible sense. Sam Bradford isn't ready to start, and it would be a terrible idea for the Rams to run him out there behind that offensive line and let his shoulder get driven into that artificial turf over and over. Playing AJ Feeley, the most-likely veteran starter on the roster, will only guarantee that the temptation to start Bradford will grow with each passing week. Kyle would be a great person to hold down the fort until Bradford is ready, and he could even help Bradford with the transition from playing the spread in college to playing in an NFL offense, as Kyle had to do it as well. High.
Granted, the original source of these rumors was Woody Page, who is a notorious asshat. However, Michael Lombardi of NFL Network has also stated that he believes the Broncos will move Orton, and I actually like that guy. While that jackass Page says that "Orton is an average quarterback who couldn't start for 21 other teams in the league," I'm going to go ahead and look at all 31 teams in the NFL other than the Broncos and gauge the possibility that they might be interested in Kyle. I'll rank each team's potential need/interest in Kyle from low to high.
Buffalo Bills- Right now they have Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, and unheralded rookie Levi Brown. They could definitely use what Kyle Orton brings to the table. Edwards proved last year that he's incapable of handling the pressure of playing behind a subpar offensive line, as he regressed to a 73.8 rating and threw for just 146 ypg in his third year. Fitzpatrick sucks. Brohm has proven to be such a poor fit for the NFL that he couldn't even hack it as the Packers third string quarterback, a mighty fall for a guy who was originally supposed to be the top pick in the 2008 draft. Buffalo, therefore, makes the HIGH category.
Miami Dolphins- Chad Henne is the future there, and they have Chad Pennington coming back in reserve, along with Pat White and former Kansas City quarterback Tyler Thigpen. LOW.
New York Jets- Mark Sanchez is the franchise, Kellen Clemens is a serviceable backup with a strong arm. Third stringer Erik Ainge is entering his third year as the third stinger. LOW.
New England Patriots- The Patriots have their usual group of no names and rookies behind Tom Brady (Brian Hoyer, Jeff Rowe, Zac Robinson), and, as usual, seem uninterested in changing that. Low.
Cleveland Browns- Well, god knows they could USE Kyle Orton, with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace competing for the starting job, but having just acquired those two and having just drafted Colt McCoy, I don't see a trade happening. LOW.
Cincinnati Bengals- Carson Palmer doesn't seem healthy anymore, and JT O'Sullivan hasn't ever impresesd. Jordan Palmer is only there because of his brother. MODERATE, just because Cincy may want some insurance.
Baltimore Ravens- They're set with Joe Flacco, fourth-year man Troy Smith, and John Beck, who's played for Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron all of his career in both Miami and Baltimore. LOW.
Pittsburgh Steelers- They've already stocked themselves up on quarterbacks to prepare for Roethlisberger's suspension. Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich all know their offense and would be ready to start right now. LOW.
Indianapolis Colts- Peyton Manning's never missed a game, and his back up is actually Kyle Orton's successor at Purdue, Curtis Painter. LOW.
Jacksonville Jaguars- They're unhappy with David Garrard and both the owner and the head coach have called him out in the media over the last few months. They reportedly called the Broncos and asked about Brady Quinn and got rebuffed. Luke McCown and an undrafted rookie named Trevor Harris are their only back ups. They could just ask for the other veteran Bronco QB. HIGH.
Houston Texans- They have Matt Schaub, who has a history of getting hurt. His backups are Dan Orlovsky and John David Booty, who both suck. Moderate, just in case they realize how badly they're screwed if Schaub gets hurt again.
Tennessee Titans- Vince Young is determined to prove me wrong, and has thus reclaimed his starting job so that he may once again fail epically. Kerry Collins is, on last report, still alive and sober and is the back up quarterback. They've got Chris Simms and rookie Rusty Smith as well. LOW.
San Diego Chargers- They've got Philip Rivers and Volektricity, and for some unknown reason they drafted Jonathan Crompton. LOW.
Kansas City Chiefs- They gave Matt Cassel (who is actually just Kyle Orton with better PR) a 63 million dollar contract and they still have Brodie Croyle, who I think would actually be a better starter. They've also got former Patriot back-up Matt Gutierrez. LOW.
Oakland Raiders- They just traded for Jason Campbell and still have Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski, and Kyle Boller competing for the #2 and #3 spots. LOW.
Dallas Cowboys- They have Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, and second-year player Stephen McGee. LOW.
Philadelphia Eagles- They're committed to Kevin Kolb and have the league's most famous back-up in Michael Vick. They also just drafted Mike Kafka. LOW.
New York Giants- They have Eli Manning, Jim Sorgi, and Rhett Bomar. LOW.
Washington Redskins- They have the oft-injured Donovan McNabb, and the oft-intercepted Rex Grossman. They may spring for a reliable back-up. MODERATE.
Chicago Bears- Well, Martz wants a veteran back up? I don't think Kyle's a good fit for the offense though. LOW.
Detroit Lions- Stafford is the guy, and they've signed Shaun Hill to back him up. Drew Stanton is still there, too. LOW.
Green Bay Packers- They've got Matt Flynn and Chris Pizzoti behind Aaron Rodgers, who takes a lot of hits. They may want a veteran back up, although this would be heartbreaking indeed. MODERATE.
Minnesota Vikings- I'm sure Favre is coming back, and they already have Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. LOW.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Josh Freeman is the guy, and they like Josh Johnson as his back-up, and Jon Gruden is no longer there to collect 9,000 quarterbacks. LOW.
Atlanta Falcons- They're set with Matt Ryan and serviceable veteran Chris Redman. DJ Shockley and John Parker Wilson aren't bad options at third string. LOW.
Carolina Panthers- Matt Moore played pretty well last year, and they just drafted Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike to amp up the competition. LOW.
New Orleans Saints- All that they've got behind Breesus is Chase Daniel. They could use an insurance plan. Moderate.
Arizona Cardinals- They have to choose between the suck of Matt Leinart and the suck of Derek Anderson, but they won't be in the market for another potential starter. LOW.
San Francisco 49ers- Despite playing well last year, Alex Smith still has a lot to prove. He could falter again, and back-ups David Carr and Nate Davis are unimpressive. It's unlikely that they'd go outside to find help, but it's not impossible. MODERATE.
St. Louis Rams- Honestly, this makes the most possible sense. Sam Bradford isn't ready to start, and it would be a terrible idea for the Rams to run him out there behind that offensive line and let his shoulder get driven into that artificial turf over and over. Playing AJ Feeley, the most-likely veteran starter on the roster, will only guarantee that the temptation to start Bradford will grow with each passing week. Kyle would be a great person to hold down the fort until Bradford is ready, and he could even help Bradford with the transition from playing the spread in college to playing in an NFL offense, as Kyle had to do it as well. High.
Seattle Seahawks- They've already opened up the competition between Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, who cost them a third round draft pick. It's unlikely they'd go with anyone other than those two guys. LOW.
So there you have it, if the Broncos trade Kyle, the most likely suitors would seem to be the Bills, the Jaguars, and the Rams. The best situation for Kyle would be the Jaguars, as there's talent and at least a slight chance to contend there. The Bills have a terrible offensive line and hired CHAN GAILEY, so there's no hope whatsoever for that entire franchise from now until the end of time. The Rams make the most sense, and Kyle would be extremely valuable as a mentor to Bradford, but they also have little chance to contend. Either way, the future looks murky for our hero.Friday, May 14, 2010
Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers, or All Sacks Are Not Created Equal
Pictured: Cutler (Top) runs for life, while Rodgers (Bottom) stands tall in pocket.
I've been a pretty fervent defender of the season Jay Cutler had last year. While I agree that Jay should have simply eaten the ball on a number of the interceptions he threw, there's still no doubt in my mind that most of his problems last year stemmed from a god awful offensive line. One of the rebuttals I've heard to this argument is that "Aaron Rodgers took more sacks than any other quarterback in the league and he still had a great season."
On the surface, this argument is solid and compelling. Rodgers did, in fact, take 50 sacks, which makes Jay's 35 seem paltry by comparison, and Rodgers (who, though I'm loathe to admit it, is a phenomenal quarterback), did have an outstanding season, with a 64.7 completion %, 4434 yards passing, 30 tds, 7 ints, and a stellar 103.2 rating. However, there are a number of different reasons why quarterbacks take sacks, and, quite frankly, almost all of the other evidence supports the notion that Green Bay had a better offensive line than Chicago this year.
1. Rodgers took sacks because he threw the ball deep.
As the 42.8 sacks averaged each year by a Mike Martz offense will attest, any time you have a quarterback take mostly 5-7 step drops and go for a vertical passing game above all else, your quarterback is often going to get hit before he can let it loose. Rodgers averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, good for 4th in the NFL, and he averaged 12.7 yards per completion, good for 5th in the NFL. That's indicative of a high number of completed deep balls, and Rodgers was 9th in the league with 55 passes over 20 yards, and 1st in the league with 17 passes that went over 40 yards. In an offense that features that many deep balls, the chances for sacks goes up.
In Cutler's case, the deep ball wasn't as much of an option. While Cutler actually had 1 more completion over 20 yards than Rodgers, he had just 6 passes go 40 yards or more. He averaged a career low 6.6 yards per attempt and a mere 10.9 yards per completion (vs. the 7.4 ypa and 11.8 ypc he managed in Denver (11.8 yards per completion? Why that's the exact same as Peyton Manning's career average! Odd)). Jay took far fewer 7 step drops than Rodgers and was forced to dump it off much more, thus bringing down his averages in those categories, since we know it isn't out of any physical inability to throw the ball deep.
2. Rodgers holds the ball too long.
This is one explanation that gets thrown out any time a quarterback takes that many sacks, but in Rodgers case, it seems to be true. I won't dwell on this very long, because it's the weakest part of the argument and it's hard to prove statistically, but from what I've seen in the games, Rodgers should take at least some responsibility for holding the ball too long.
Cutler, unfortunately, tends not to hold the ball long enough and rushes throws that become interceptions, but the sacks he does take tend to come rather quickly after the snap. So...win?
3. The Packers actually had a running game.
While some offensive lines are much better at pass blocking than run blocking or vice versa, there's generally some level of correlation. If you're good at one, you're probably not awful at the other. The Bears offensive line sucked at both, with the 35 sacks surrendered going along neatly with their 29th ranked rushing attack.
The Packers? Well, their run game was actually pretty good. They rushed for 1885 yds (118 ypg), good for 14th in the league, and we're 13th in the league in yards per rush (Bears were 26th). This means that teams actually had to respect the run when playing the Packers.
Simply put, Cutler had to face far more pressure against defenses that knew, more often than not, that the Bears Had to pass if they had any hope of moving the ball. He was alone on an island with little help from the run game and inexperienced wide receivers. Rodgers had the threat of the run to take the pressure off, as well as one of the best wide receiver corps in the game with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, who were much better at making adjustments and coming back to the ball than the young Chicago corps.
4. The Packers offensive line improved as the year went on.
After 10 games, the Packers had given up 43 sacks and were stuck in the middle of the pack at 6-4. Over their last 6 games, however, their offensive line showed drastic improvement and gave up just 7 sacks as the team went 5-1 to clinch a wildcard spot. Rodgers was sacked just once in each of the Green Bay's last five games.
The Bears? Well, they remained consistently awful. Granted, most of us will remember that they actually did improve slightly after Orlando Pace was benched, but they still remained far below average, as they gave up at least 2 sacks in all but 3 games last season. On average, Cutler was sacked 2.5 times per game as the Bears folded down the stretch, while Rodgers went down just 1.2 times per game as Green Bay raced to the playoffs.
So there you have it. Now, let me make this clear to anyone who thinks I'm being completely irrational: Aaron Rodgers is better than Jay Cutler (right now). You'd have to be really thick-headed to take the league leader in interceptions over a guy who currently holds the highest career passer rating in NFL history. However, it is not, as I've said, an invalid argument to blame many of Cutler's problems on a poor offensive line while ignoring how well Rodgers played despite 50 sacks. Frankly, all of the other numbers outside of those 15 extra sacks clearly show that Green Bay had a much, much better offensive line.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Dammit, People, It Wasn't Tim Couch's Fault
It's okay, Tim. I understand.
I'm going to digress from the Bears today (what's that? I do it all the time? Well, no one's reading anyways) and talk about an anecdote from this article by Steve Wyche of NFL.com. In the article, Wyche makes the case for JaMarcus Russell supplanting Ryan Leaf as the greatest draft bust of all time (which, while I may disagree, is an argument with a great deal of merit), but he also lists his top ten draft busts of all time. Wyche has Tim Couch at #3. This cannot stand.
Tim Couch was not a bust at all. I repeat, Tim Couch was Never a bust. Let's look at the statlines of the QBs Wyche has in his list:
JaMarcus Russell- 31 Games, 25 Starts (7-18), 354 comp./680 att. (52.1%), 4083 yds, 18 tds, 23 ints, 6.0 ypa, 131.7 ypg, 65.2 rating
Ryan Leaf- 25 games, 21 starts (4-17), 317 comp./655 att. (48.4%), 3666 yds, 14 tds, 36 ints, 5.6 ypa, 146.6 ypg, 50.0 rating
Tim Couch- 62 games, 59 starts (22-37), 1025 comp./1714 att. (59.8%), 11131 yds, 64 tds, 67 ints, 6.5 ypa, 179.5 ypg, 75.1 rating
Akili Smith- 22 games, 17 starts (3-14), 215 comp./461 att. (46.6%), 2212 yds, 5 tds, 13 ints, 4.8 ypa, 100.5 ypg, 52.8 rating
Heath Shuler- 29 games, 22 starts (8-14), 292 comp./593 att. (49.2%), 3691 yds, 15 tds, 33 ints, 6.2 ypa, 127.3 ypg, 54.3 rating
Notice how Tim Couch is light years ahead of the rest of them (including the two who were BELOW him on this list) in every single category? Hell, compare him to some other first round quarterbacks in the last couple decades who were much worse, like Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith (he may have turned it around last year, but he was garbage his first four years), Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Cade F*&king McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, Trent Dilfer, Rick F*&king Mirer, David Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, or Chuck Long, just to name a few. Statistically speaking, Couch is better than all of them. And that's just the quarterbacks. That doesn't include colossal busts at every other position on the field. That also doesn't include the off-field problems of many of those busts (Cade's assholery, Matt Leinart's partying, Marinovich's drug abuse, Leaf's total dickishness, JaMarcus' missing work ethic), none of which Tim Couch was ever accused of. Tim Couch shouldn't even sniff a top ten busts lists, let alone wind up at #3.
Sure, there are people who will argue that he didn't live up to the expectations of the number one overall pick, or as Wyche says, "he didn't have the makings of an NFL quarterback," but that's absolute horseshit. Couch took over the reigns of an expansion team from the 2nd game of his rookie season and improved each season until he took them to the playoffs in 2002. Couch's rookie season alone was a testament to his ability to perform as well as possible despite the total dearth of talent around him. Couch was sacked a league leading 56 times in 1999, and yet he managed to 223 of 399 passes (55.9%) for 2447 yards, 15 tds, only 13 interceptions, and a 73.2 rating. Compare that to some other quarterbacks placed into similar situations for first year expansion teams:
David Carr (2002 Texans)- 233/444 (52.5%), 2592 yds, 9 tds, 15 ints, 62.8 rating
Mark Brunell (1995 Jaguars)- 201/346 (58.1%), 2168 yds, 15 tds, 7 ints, 82.6 rating
Kerry Collins (1995 Panthers)- 214/433 (49.4%), 2717 yds, 14 tds, 19 ints, 61.9 rating
Jim Zorn (1976 Seahawks)- 208/439 (47.4%), 2571 yds, 12 tds, 27 ints, 49.5 rating
Steve Spurrier (1976 Buccaneers)- 156/311 (50.2%), 1628 yds, 7 tds, 12 ints, 57.1 rating
As you can see, Couch was better than any of those quarterbacks other than Mark Brunell, and he was certainly better than the other three rookies (Carr, Collins, Zorn). Also, Brunell and Collins both benefitted from the fact that the Panthers and Jaguars were both expansion teams run by non-morons that added talent and actually advanced to their respective conference championship games in their second seasons.
Hell, compare Couch's rookie season to that of some other QBs taken #1 overall in recent decades:
Matthew Stafford, 2009: 10 G, 10 GS (2-8), 201/377 (53.3%), 2267 yds, 13 tds, 20 ints, 6.0 ypa, 226.7 ypg, 61.0 rating.
Eli Manning, 2004: 9 G, 7 GS (1-6), 95/197 (48.2%), 1043 yds, 6 tds, 9 ints, 5.3 ypa, 115.9 ypg, 55.4 rating.
Tim Couch, 1999: 14 G, 14 GS (2-12), 223/399 (55.9%), 2447 yds, 15 tds, 13 ints, 6.1 ypa, 163.1 ypg, 73.2 rating.
Peyton Manning, 1998: 16 G, 16 GS (3-13), 326/575 (56.7%), 3739 yds, 26 tds, 28 ints, 6.5 ypa, 233.7 ypg, 71.2 rating.
Drew Bledsoe, 1993: 13 G, 12 GS (5-7), 214/429 (49.9%), 2494 yds, 15 tds, 15 ints, 5.8 ypa, 191.8 ypg, 65.0 rating.
Troy Aikman, 1989: 11 G, 11 GS (0-11), 155/293 (52.9%), 1749 yds, 9 tds, 18 ints, 6.0 ypa, 159.0 ypg, 55.7
You can see from these stats that Couch actually played better than most, and comparable in many categories to Peyton Manning. But whereas Aikman or the Mannings played on teams that went out to add talent around their young quarterback (Irvin and Emmitt Smith for Aikman, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne for Peyton, and Plaxico Burress, etc. for Eli) Couch played for the Browns, who failed to take a single offensive lineman in the first two rounds during Couch's tenure, or to draft a runningback until they picked the woeful William Green in the first round in 2002. The four second round wide receivers the Browns picked during that time, Kevin Johnson, Andre' Davis, Quincy Morgan, and Dennis Northcutt, proved to be major disappointments, leaving Couch largely isolated without a running game or playmakers to take the pressure off of his offensive line. Couch was thus sacked almost 10% of the time he dropped back to pass, and the injuries began to pile up. He simply wasn't put in a position to take the next step forward like many of his fellow #1 picks.
The ineptitude of the Browns (and the fact that it wasn't, in fact, Couch's fault) can be seen in the performance of every other Browns quarterback but Couch since the restoration:
Tim Couch (posted again for comparison's sake): 62 games, 59 starts (22-37, 0.373 win%), 1025/1714 (59.8%), 11131 yds, 64 tds, 67 ints, 6.5 ypa, 179.5 ypg, 75.1 rating.
All other Browns QBs since 1999: 149 games, 117 games started (37-80, 0.316 win%), 2075/3685 (56.3%), 22731 yds, 127 tds, 147 ints, 6.2 ypa, 152.6, 69.6 rating.
As you can see, Couch is, once again, superior to all of the rest of the QBs the Browns have thrown into the fire, and the franchise as a whole had a better winning % when he started than when he hasn't.
Tim Couch's problems are entirely the fault of the Brown's organization. Tim was a guy that played in a spread offense at Kentucky before anyone really knew what that means. Rather than letting him sit the bench and learn a pro-style offense for a year or two, they threw him out there and let him get clobbered behind a god awful offensive line. Even then he performed far better than most rookies, and far better than most rookie spread QBs (I'm looking at you, Alex Smith). His arm strength wasn't great, but it was at least NFL-quality and it was nowhere near as poor as most people have retroactively graded it until he suffered repeated shoulder injuries. The shoulder injuries are also the reason he's failed in every comeback attempt. The Packers cut him when they saw just how frayed his ligaments were. The Browns organization truly had ruined him.
You can say that the Browns never got what they hoped for out Tim Couch. His career was indeed a disappointment, but not for any failings of his own. I think it's more apt to say that Browns fans, and Tim Couch, haven't gone what they hoped for out of the Browns organization.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Marc Bulger? I'll Pass.
If you're an obsessive football fan like I am, you know how useful ProFootballTalk is. The up to the minute rumors are very helpful for..obsessing over football. However, you also probably hate Mike Florio, the guy that runs the site. I've taken shots at his snarky, sniveling shots at Jay Cutler before, but really he's not biased against Cutler anymore than he is any other player he doesn't likes. It's shit like this article, however, that really gets my goat. In article talking about how the Jerry Angelo stating that the Bears are continuing to look into the notion of signing a veteran quarterback (specifically, Marc Bulger), Florio has this to say:
So why hasn't it happened? Because, in our view, Angelo doesn't want Martz and coach Lovie Smith to have a guy who can help salvage the season -- and their jobs -- if Cutler struggles through an early-season schedule that includes games against the Cowboys, Packers, and Giants. (We focused on this specific issue last month for SportingNews.com.) If the Bears fail with Cutler, Smith goes but Angelo likely stays. If Cutler gets benched and Bulger can't turn things around, Smith and Angelo likely will go, since Angelo pulled the trigger on giving up two first-round picks for a guy who ultimately couldn't hold off a player signed off the street.
Sure, Angelo shouldn't be motivated by protecting his position. But there has to be a reason for the fact that the Bears haven't already signed Bulger. And that's the most logical explanation for it.
Look, I'll buy that Jerry Angelo might do or not do something just to cover his own ass, but you really think that's the MOST logical explanation? Here, I'll give you some more logical explanations:
1. They just drafted a quarterback
Dan LeFevour is a very talented player with a lot of potential who could be a legitimately good quarterback after some time on the bench. He's not going to displace Cutler, but it's very possible that he could be a quality back-up or even a guy other teams will take a look at (sort of like Favre's former backups Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, and Aaron Brooks, or Charlie Whitehurst, who brought a 3rd round pick to San Diego in a trade with Seattle). If you can take a quarterback like that in the 6th round and redeem that pick later with a higher round pick, that's a great move, and worth more than a veteran who'll probably spend 16 games holding a clipboard at best.
2. They already have a quarterback in Caleb Hanie
True, Caleb's only thrown 11 NFL passes and looked mediocre doing so. However, I don't think throwing him into the fire in a late game blowout against the Ravens defense is a fair test for the guy. He's looked great in both of his preseasons, and while preseason numbers don't meant shit, his technique and his arm strength and mobility have looked good. I realize Martz isn't sold on him yet, but he's another guy with great potential. I have confidence that Caleb Hanie wouldn't embarass himself if he has to start and gets all of the practice reps.
3. They just spent an assload of money on free agents, have yet to sign their draft picks, and Bulger would probably cost more than Hanie/LeFevour/Basanez combined.
..That sums it up.
4. Marc Bulger isn't that good.
I realize the Rams offensive line and wide receiver units have gone down hill. I realize Marc Bulger has been injured. I just don't buy that he could return to form, or that part of that wasn't his fault. In his last three seasons Bulger has a stat line of :
36 Games Started, 612 comp./1065 att. (57.5%)/6581 yds/27 tds/34 ints/6.2 ypa/182.8 ypg/70.9 rating.
None of those numbers are spectacular. All are well below a league average effort. Like I said, I'm quite confident that Caleb Hanie could come in and put up a 70.9 quarterback rating, and at least have more mobility and durability than the statuesque Bulger, all at a lower cost.
So really, Florio, tell me again what the Most logical explanation is for not signing Marc Bulger?
So why hasn't it happened? Because, in our view, Angelo doesn't want Martz and coach Lovie Smith to have a guy who can help salvage the season -- and their jobs -- if Cutler struggles through an early-season schedule that includes games against the Cowboys, Packers, and Giants. (We focused on this specific issue last month for SportingNews.com.) If the Bears fail with Cutler, Smith goes but Angelo likely stays. If Cutler gets benched and Bulger can't turn things around, Smith and Angelo likely will go, since Angelo pulled the trigger on giving up two first-round picks for a guy who ultimately couldn't hold off a player signed off the street.
Sure, Angelo shouldn't be motivated by protecting his position. But there has to be a reason for the fact that the Bears haven't already signed Bulger. And that's the most logical explanation for it.
Look, I'll buy that Jerry Angelo might do or not do something just to cover his own ass, but you really think that's the MOST logical explanation? Here, I'll give you some more logical explanations:
1. They just drafted a quarterback
Dan LeFevour is a very talented player with a lot of potential who could be a legitimately good quarterback after some time on the bench. He's not going to displace Cutler, but it's very possible that he could be a quality back-up or even a guy other teams will take a look at (sort of like Favre's former backups Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, and Aaron Brooks, or Charlie Whitehurst, who brought a 3rd round pick to San Diego in a trade with Seattle). If you can take a quarterback like that in the 6th round and redeem that pick later with a higher round pick, that's a great move, and worth more than a veteran who'll probably spend 16 games holding a clipboard at best.
2. They already have a quarterback in Caleb Hanie
True, Caleb's only thrown 11 NFL passes and looked mediocre doing so. However, I don't think throwing him into the fire in a late game blowout against the Ravens defense is a fair test for the guy. He's looked great in both of his preseasons, and while preseason numbers don't meant shit, his technique and his arm strength and mobility have looked good. I realize Martz isn't sold on him yet, but he's another guy with great potential. I have confidence that Caleb Hanie wouldn't embarass himself if he has to start and gets all of the practice reps.
3. They just spent an assload of money on free agents, have yet to sign their draft picks, and Bulger would probably cost more than Hanie/LeFevour/Basanez combined.
..That sums it up.
4. Marc Bulger isn't that good.
I realize the Rams offensive line and wide receiver units have gone down hill. I realize Marc Bulger has been injured. I just don't buy that he could return to form, or that part of that wasn't his fault. In his last three seasons Bulger has a stat line of :
36 Games Started, 612 comp./1065 att. (57.5%)/6581 yds/27 tds/34 ints/6.2 ypa/182.8 ypg/70.9 rating.
None of those numbers are spectacular. All are well below a league average effort. Like I said, I'm quite confident that Caleb Hanie could come in and put up a 70.9 quarterback rating, and at least have more mobility and durability than the statuesque Bulger, all at a lower cost.
So really, Florio, tell me again what the Most logical explanation is for not signing Marc Bulger?
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