The More Things Change..

1998! When a Ryan Leaf action figure sounded like a good idea!

The more they really f#$kin' change. Last night with the Cubs on an off day and nothing else to do, I found myself watching the 1998 Quarterback Skills Competition on NFL Network, and it blew my mind. Just seeing the quarterbacks that participated, the teams they were with at the time, and hearing the speculation on their futures, all while knowing what happened to each of them was kind of amusing. Some of the quarterbacks that participated-

Kordell Stewart, Steelers

They first talk about Kordell's mobility and call him "the total package," they discuss his stellar play in 1997 and mention how he was sure to keep defenses guessing for years to come. Ironically he fails the mobility challenge, which everyone assumed he would win, by holding onto the ball too long and throwing it wide of the target at the end. Later he scored the lowest of any quarterback in the accuracy competition (shocking, I know).

Danny Kanell, Giants
Honest to God before last night I can't even remember the last time I'd heard the name of this journeyman quarterback who spent two years starting for the Giants in 1997 and 1998 before disappearing into obscurity. He didn't place very well.

Kerry Collins, Panthers

This came not long after the 1997 season, and they mention Collins' hopes to take the Panthers back to the playoffs, after the 1996 Panthers had made it to the NFC championship game, only to fall to 7-9 the next year as Collins threw 21 interceptions. Just a few short months later Collins' alcoholism and an incident involving Muhsin Muhammed, a few other teammates, and a racial epithet led to him being placed on waivers by the Panthers, picked up by the Saints, and nearly flaming out of the league.

Gus Frerotte, Redskins
Frerotte was about to enter his last season with the Redskins, leading to the journeyman career he's had since then (he's been on 7 different teams). He didn't perform very well.

Steve Young, 49ers

This one made me kind of sad, as Young was always one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch due to his efficiency and incredible accuracy. The 1998 season would be his last great season, with 36 td passes and that incredibly playoff win over the Packers when he threw the game winning touchdown pass to Terrell Owens through double coverage. Just a year after that vicious hit from Aeneas Williams and the effects of post concussion syndrome would finally force him into retirement.

Trent Dilfer, Buccaneers

Dilfer was coming off the best season, statistically, of his career and everyone seemed optimistic he'd finally overcome the problems of his first three seasons and was surely to become the franchise quarterback the Bucs expected when they drafted him in the 1st round in 1994. Of course that didn't happen, and only his year as the poster child for the caretaker quarterback during the Ravens Superbowl run kept his career from being a disappointment. Now he works at ESPN, where he and Mark Schlereth somehow think the Jay Cutler trade made the Bears a worse team. F&%k you, Trent.

Scott Mitchell, Lions
Remember Mitchell? The former back up to Dan Marino who tantalized Lions fans with a 4,338 yd, 32 td 1995 season and actually led them to the playoffs in the 1995 and 1997? That seems so long ago. Mitchell never really sustained the success of his 1995 season and ended up benched just a few months after this competition in favor of rookie Charlie Batch (WHO THE LIONS NEVER SHOULD HAVE GIVEN UP ON!)

Brett Favre, Packers

Favre was coming off his third straight MVP season, his second straight Superbowl appearance, and everyone was sure he was destined for even greater heights. Thank God he wasn't. The bastard hasn't been in a Superbowl or received another MVP since.

Drew Bledsoe, Patriots

Bledsoe was in the middle of the most productive run of his career, when from 1996-1998 he threw for between 20 and 28 touchdowns each year with a passing rating over 80 for all three seasons (above his 77.1 career mark). Believe it or not the mobility part of the test wasn't his best performance.

Elvis Grbac, Chiefs

Grbac had shown promise as Young's backup on the 49ers, so the Chiefs had picked him to be their starter for the 1997 season. Grbac performed adequately, and the announcers were determined he was off to a bright career as a starter. He wasn't. During the 98 season he'd be benched with a 53.1 quarterback rating. He'd rebound to have a decent season in 1999 and a fluke season in 2000 when he threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 tds, but then flamed out horribly as the Ravens starter in 2001 before retiring. Also, if you haven't read the hilarious tale of how Elvis Grbac accidentally became People's Sexiest Athlete Alive in 1998, you should.

Jim Harbaugh, Ravens

This was fun, as Harbaugh was the first Bears quarterback I watched during my lifetime and I was always happy for his success in Indianapolis. This was right after he'd been traded to the Ravens to make room on the Colts for a rookie Peyton Manning. He said in an interview during the competition that he intended to play until he won a Superbowl, but alas that was not to be. After a disappointing '98 he left the Ravens to join the Chargers, where he led them to an 8-8 record during the 1999 season while Ryan Leaf was hurt. After "losing" the job to Leaf in 2000, Harbaugh started just 5 games, going 0-5 on a 1-15 squad. He retired after backing up Charlie Batch for the Lions in 2001. Harbaugh won the whole thing, which must sadly be a career highlight for him.

Steve McNair, Oilers

This was of course a bit awkward given recent events, and it was pretty sad to hear everyone talk about his skill set and his bright future. It was good to see an Oilers jersey again, though.

And then, of course, the funniest one of all...

Ryan Leaf, Chargers

Leaf didn't actually compete in the challenge, he was merely the person used to demonstrate each event, and it was fantastic. I really mean that, he was absolutely perfect at almost every one of the drills. He threw the deep ball well, he hit the moving targets with accuracy and damn near right on the bullseye, he even showed off great movement in the mobility challenge. It really is interesting after seeing the abysmal failure that he was on the field, and hearing him referred to as the greatest draft bust of all time, to really see the skills he had that got him drafted. Its really no surprise that arm strength and size got him as high in the draft as it did. It just makes it all the more glaring how poor his attitude really was and how badly it affected his performance.

College Football Preview, 2009

Its the middle of July, I'm bored, the Cubs just dropped two in a row after showing signs of life for a week, and the first football game of the year isn't until September 3rd. What's a man to do?

Football previews. Here I arbitrarily throw out how I think the 6 major conferences will shake out and who I have in my preseason top 25. Whats my basis for most of this? Hearsay, hunches, and downright bullshit! With maybe a fact or two or a quarterback or defensive line thrown in there for fun. So onto the Big Ten (the only league I'm actually going to attempt to figure out the actual records of)

Big Ten

Ohio State 10-2 (7-1)

They have Terrelle Pryor back, and maybe this year he'll actually know how to pass and be a true dual threat quarterback, regardless of how ESPN decided to just overlook Daryll Clark and Juice Williams and annoint him TEH BEST DUAL THREAT QUARTERBACK IN THE HISTORY OF THE BIG TEN EVAR I MEAN COME ON DID U NOT SEE WHEN HE THREW FOR LIKE 200 YARDS AGAINST PENNS TATE ZOMG?! Not saying he won't end up being far better than those two over the course of his career, but he sure as hell wasn't from the moment he stepped on the field. They don't have Beanie Wells anymore but they do have his top backup Daniel Herron who looked pretty damn good as a freshman, and they have experience at wide receiver and on the o-line. The defense looks as solid as any other Tressel defense, and the conference is still pretty weak. Another Big Ten Championship and disappointing bowl loss for the Buckeyes this year.

Penn State 10-2 (6-2)

They have Darryl Clark back as well as the man who takes over Shonn Greene's mantle as the best runningback in the Big Ten, Evan Royster. They have to retool their offensive line and only return four starters on defense, but Penn State usually has little trouble reloading on defense and their offense will be more than good enough to carry them until they get things sorted out.

Iowa 9-3 (5-3)

Fuck them. No, seriously. Fuck them. After three nice lackluster seasons signalling the decline of the Ferentzian Empire they go ahead and go 9-4 last year. Its not cool. They lose Shonn Greene but they return 7 starters on offense and 8 fuckers on defense, and they'll probably be even better than I give them credit for, but fuck them.

Illinois 8-4 (5-3)

They return 6 starters from the nation's 19th ranked offense including Juice Williams, who I think will have a big senior year, as I mentioned before. New offensive coordinator Mike Schultz seemed to crank out 60% passers and a balanced offense every year at TCU and I have high hopes he'll be a more efficient play caller near the red zone than Mike Locksley. Their defense only returns 4 starters, but as awful as they were last year is that really a bad thing? Their schedule is weaker than last year and with any luck they can pull off a return to a bowl bid. Anything less than 7 wins looks to be a disappointment, but honestly just a bowl game is all I ask. I really can't get greedy.

Northwestern 8-4 (4-4)

I'm really not convinced that Mike Kafka, who split time at quarterback with CJ Bacher last year, can handle the job full time, even with the added threat of his rushing ability. They lose Tyrell Sutton and return Zero skill position starters on offense, though they should be solid up front with four returning starters on the o-line. They do return 8 starters from a defense that was pretty solid last year, and in a strange turn of events their defense should be good enough to carry NW's offense for a while.

Michigan State 7-5 (4-4)

I know they went 9-4 last year and return 14 starters (though neither at quarterback or runningback), but I just don't see Michigan State having TWO good years in a row. AMIRITE?

Minnesota 7-5 (4-4)

They started hot last year at 7-1 before losing 5 in a row to finish the season. They're transitioning from the spread offense to more of a pro style, and I think that's a bad move with QB Adam Weber and 8 players back on offense. They return 7 on defense as well, but their schedule is tougher and it'll be a more difficult trip to a bowl game than it was last year. I have them at 7-5, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see them finish as poorly as 5-7.

Purdue 5-7 (4-4)

They were more or less awful in Joe Tiller's last season, and I don't see them improving all that much in Danny Hope's first year with just 3 returning starters on offense and none of them at the skill positions. Fifth year senior Joey Elliot is the most likely candidate to start at quarterback, but I think they'd be better off throwing touted redshirt freshman Caleb TerBush out there and just letting him learn under fire.

Wisconsin 6-6 (2-6)

They return 7 starters on offense, but that includes the quarterback (Dustin Sherer) who wasn't very good and not the runningback (PJ Hill) who was. They shouldn't really experience too much of a drop off in the running game, however, as Hills backup John Clay ran for 884 yards with a 5.7 average last year. The defense returns five starters, but only return two of their front seven and its likely their defense will experience a drop off quite a bit from its top 40 ranking last year.

Michigan 5-7 (2-6)

They should be better on offense than last year, when they finished dead last in the Big Ten in both rush and pass offense, but they still lack a true spread option quarterback like Rich Rodriguez likes. The defense returns 5 starters but have an inexperienced secondary. They'll be hard pressed to improve on last year's 87th ranked pass defense.

Indiana 2-10 (0-8)

They backslid from their 7-6 record and bowl game appearance in 2007 to 3-9 last year when the defense fell apart and Kellen Lewis struggled without James Hardy. Lewis was then moved to wide receiver but has since been kicked off the team. Ben Chappel takes over under center and is more of a dropback passer than Lewis, with little else special about him. They'll take a step back this year as it looks like Bill Lynch is just gonna have to blow the whole thing up and start over again.

SEC

East-

Florida

Georgia

South Carolina

Kentucky

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

West-

Ole Miss

Alabama

LSU

Arkansas

Auburn

Mississippi State

Big 12

North-

Nebraska

Kansas

Missouri

Colorado

Kansas State

Iowa State

South-

Texas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas Tech

Baylor

Texas A&M

Pac 10

USC

Oregon

California

Oregon State

Arizona State

Stanford

UCLA

Arizona

Washington

Washington State

ACC

Atlantic-

NC State

Florida State

Clemson

Boston College

Wake Forest

Maryland

Coastal-

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

North Carolina

Miami

Virginia

Duke

Big East
Cincinnati

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

South Florida

Lousiville

Connecticut

Syracuse

The Top 25

1. Florida- Tim Tebow and 6 starters overall from last year's 4th ranked offense, and 11(!) starters back from last years 4th ranked defense. Oh, and they won the national championship last year, their second in three years. Until someone finds a way to knock 'em off, there's no logical explanation for picking someone else.

2. Texas- Its pretty much a draw in the Big 12 between Texas and Oklahoma, and I like Texas' defense just a little bit more.

3. Oklahoma- See above.

4. USC- God damnit Pete Carroll.

5. Ole Miss- I don't know why, I just like Jevan Snead and Houston Nutt and I hate Nick Saban and Alabama, so they're in my top 5.

6. Ohio State-Here we go again.

7. Virginia Tech- Tyrod Taylor will make the necessary improvements and that defense will be pretty damn good. I think they knock off Alabama in the season opener

8. Alabama- They're good and they return 9 starters from an awesome defense, but they have too many questions on offense for my liking. And fuck you, Nick Saban.

9. Penn State- Darryl Clark and Evan Royster make them dangerous.

10. Oklahoma State- Zac Robinson's pretty damn good and Mike Gundy Is a grown man, so they have that going for them

11. Oregon- Do you know who Jeramiah Masoli is? You should.

12. Boise State- Kellen Moore's good enough to overcome their inexperience on offense and defense.

13. Georgia- Good news? Lower expectations than last year and enough returning starters to make a run. Bad news? None of those returning starters is Matt Stafford.

14. Cal- Jahvid Best is one hell of a beast at runningback, but its about time Tedford worked his magic with Kevin Riley.

15. Georgia Tech- I'm probably going a little bit high on them, but 16 returning starters for Paul Johnson's kick ass spread/triple option/flexbone whatever the hell you wanna call it kickass ride of awesomeness equals a top 15 team in my book.

16. Nebraska- I like what Bo Pelini did in just a year with the program to clean out the funk of douche leftover from Bill Callahan. They're thin on returning starters on offense but their defense will be good enough to win the Big 12 North.

17. LSU- They should be able to run the ball on offense and that defense should be improved from last year, but it won't be enough to win the SEC West.

18. Cincinnati- Senior quarterback Tony Pike will lead an offense that is good enough to win the incredibly weak Big East, despite heavy losses on defense. Plus, for some reason, Ron Guenther scheduled Cincinnati as a late November nonconference game for Illinois AT Cincinnati. Why? Dear God, Why?

19. North Carolina- They return 16 starters, and their losses from last year (TE, WLB, FB, etc) are at fairly minor positions. It's Butch Davis's third year and the ACC is usually a crapshoot. They're a sleeper.

20. NC State- They have the ACC's best quarterback in Russell Wilson (who threw 17 touchdowns with only 1 interception last year), and they have 7 starters returning on each side of the ball. They'll definitely improve from their 6-7 record last year.

21. Utah- The losses on offense are heavy for the team that went 13-0 and pantsed Nick Saban in the Sugar Bowl last year, but they can still play ball in the Mountain West.

22. Iowa- Fuck them.

23. Notre Dame- Clausen and ten starters return on offense. They'll still probably lose their bowl game.

24. Oregon State- They have an impressive looking offense, but only 3 returning starters on defense. Perfect for a Pac 10 team.

25. Illinois- Forgive me. I'll have them out of here as soon as they lose their first game to a Chase Daniel-less Missouri and I allow myself to throw away my foolish dreams.

How Long Can You Keep This Up?

Last April, Derrek Lee was two years removed from his wrist injury, coming off of a season that OPS wise was his second best ever (even with only 22 homers), and he had one of the best Aprils of his career, with a .364/8/23/.437/.682 line, adding up to an 1.118 OPS. The Cubs were off to a hot start and most Cub fans were happy with the idea that the Derrek Lee we saw in 2005 was finally back in full force. Then the calendar rolled over to May, traditionally Derrek's worst month in the majors, and it hit hard, dropping him to a .234/5/14/.269/.411 line that month for a .681 OPS. From there on until the rest of the season Derrek never hit more than 2 homers in a month or posted a monthly OPS higher than a mediocre .787. He began to roll over into double play after double play, finishing with 27 and earning the moniker "DPLee" on many messageboards. Opinions varied on his prospects for the 2009 season, with many meathead Cub fans openly calling for the Cubs to drop him out of his customary third spot in the lineup or to replace him with 29 year old "rookie" Micah Hoffpauir outright.

April of this year came and with the Cubs struggling, much of the fans' frustrations were vented on Derrek, who posted his worst April in a decade, when he posted a .173 average and a .478 OPS for the Marlins in May of 1999, back before he'd established himself as a major leaguer. This April Derrek's line was a ghastly .189/1/10/.253/.284 for a morbid .537 OPS. The calls for Hoffpauir grew louder and even led some rational bloggers to wonder if maybe the change would have to be made soon.

But then something incredible happened. Lee entered May, his worst month, and caught fire like he hadn't done since April of last year or even 2007. For the month of May he hit .313/4/9/.403/.552 with a .955 OPS. June came (traditionally his best month) and he didn't disappoint, hitting .333/6/20/.417/.556 with a .973 OPS, the first time he'd put back to back months together with an OPS of at least .900 since his monster 2005. How has he done in his 5 July games? He's off to an even greater start, with a .300/4/12/.333/.900 line and a whopping 1.233 OPS. Needless to say its one of the better hitting stretches of his career, all at the age of 33 and after what appeared to be a year of decline.

So what the hell happened? It seems a bit weak after three years to use the "his wrist was hurt" excuse, so I won't. However, the bulging disk that has bothered him on an off since 2007 seems a likely culprit, and perhaps the treatment has finally given him the comfort to drive the ball with authority once more. The question that's most important, however, is if he can keep this up.

I say yes he can. Why? His swing is just perfect right now, and while he's bound to cool down from the homer hitting tear he's been on this week, there's no reason he can't continue his success of the last two months as long as he keeps driving both fastballs and breaking balls the way he has been and punishing pitchers' mistakes that he was missing just three months ago. He's got protection in the lineup again, with Aramis back to save the day. But most of all he's going to do it because just like me, he hates the Cubs.com troglodytes that called for Micah Hoffpauir with the white hot rage of a thousand burning suns.

Air McNair? Say it Ain't So..

Steve McNair was murdered yesterday. Whether he was shot by his mistress (though all signs point in that direction) or someone else has yet to be determined, but that doesn't really have any impact on the fact that the 36 year old quarterback is dead. I know that countless other articles have been written or will be written about this tragedy and almost all of which will come from experts and insiders, people that knew McNair or have access to the people that did. Hell, I'm not even a Titans fan (my brother is, though). I am a football fan, however, and, as you may have noticed, I tend to spend most of my time analyzing quarterbacks. This site is named after Kyle Orton, but I've written countless about Rex Grossman, Jay Cutler, Juice Williams, Cade McNown, that bastard Favre, and dozens of other quarterbacks. Out of the many signal callers I've watched in my lifetime, McNair ranks right up there with the best of them.

McNair was accurate (60.1% comp %), he had a lower interception % than Peyton Manning, he was a proven winner (91-62), and most notably, despite battling injuries most of his career, from the time he was made a full time starter in 1997 until he volunteered to take the bench in Baltimore during a rebuilding year in 2007, he only played in fewer than 14 games twice, once in 2004 when he shut it down and only played 8 games for a rebuilding Titans team that went 5-11 that year, and before that in 1999, when he missed a few early season games but returned to go 9-2 and lead his team to the Superbowl. Most fans remember that Superbowl run by the Titans, from the Music City Miracle against the Bills all the way up until their last drive against the Rams, when the Titans, having previously rallied from a 16-0 deficit to tie the game, came up just one yard short of tying it once more at 23 and sending it to overtime. No one that saw that game will ever forget McNair tossing the ball to Kevin Dyson and watching him struggle to find the end zone. Hell, after the trade from the Titans (in which nearly every one in the league cried out against the Titan's mistreatment of an icon), he even managed to give the Ravens a year with a decent passing game, and that alone is a worthy accomplishment.

Off of the field, McNair had a sterling reputation. He donated to countless charities, ran dozens of football camps, and was well loved throughout the state of Tennessee and the NFL. Sadly, the shady circumstances of his death will forever mar that reputation. Already the mono-IQ'd commenters on the articles describing McNair's death at places like Yahoo! Sports or NFL.com are spewing bile like "he got what he deserved for cheatin!" from underneath their bare light bulb, and that's a damn shame.

I don't know McNair's wife, or 99.9% of the details of his personal life. I can probably venture a guess that between the vacations he went on with his mistress, the car he registered her name in, and the fact that him and his wife were fairly frequent diners at the restaraunt where she was a waitress, Mrs. McNair wasn't exactly oblivious to her existence. I don't really think that excuses adultery, but it makes it one hell of a grey area when one tries to consider how wrong Steve McNair's actions may have been. I certainly don't think that some moron somewhere should somehow make 2+2=5 and decide that McNair's "good guy" status in the NFL, his contributions on the field, or his outstanding work in the community are all rendered moot by some personal failing in an unrelated area of his life. It's sure as hell not gonna change any memories I have of watching him on Sundays.

How to Rate A Quarterback

The other day an esteemed colleague of mine and I were debating quarterback rating as a viable method for evaluating quarterbacks. This foolish fellow may have been attempting to argue that Win-Loss record was a more valuable tool for measuring a quarterback's worth, and I wholeheartedly disagreed, as I do not believe that 19-12 Rex Grossman (70.2 career QB rating)is a better or more valuable quarterback than 17-20 Jay Cutler (87.1 career QB rating). So,what is the greatest indicator of a great quarterback?

Touchdowns? Brett Favre has more of those than anyone in history, but that's counterbalanced by the fact that he's the all time interceptions leader.

Completion percentage? By that count Jeff Garcia (61.6 career) is better than Troy Aikman (61.5), and I just don't buy that.

Yards per attempt? Well that would make the so-so Jake Delhomme (7.9 ypa last year) one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

So what metric Truly defines great quarterback?

Simply put, there isn't one. Or at least there wasn't one till now. Gentlemen, I introduce to you the Kyle Orton Quarterback Rate-O-Meter, or KOQROM for short. It's based on a highly complicated and secretive formula which takes into account win-loss records, QB rating, yards per attempt, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, facial hair, blood alcohol content, the number of comparisons John Madden makes of said quarterback to Brett Favre, and a variety of other factors. Using the KOQROM system, we wind up with the following league leaders at quarterback

(Scale runs from 0-275.6)

1. Kyle Orton, 256.8
2. Ben Roethlisberger, 221.4
3. Brett Favre, 217.3
4. Tony Romo, 206.9
5. Donovan McNabb, 199.6
6. Jay Cutler, 191.8
7. Phillip Rivers, 188.7
8. Matt Schaub, 186.8
9. Gus Frerrote,178.4
10.Trent Edwards, 169.4

Clearly the system works.

Most. Valuable. Quarterback. Evar.

Juice Williams, the Next VY?

The Cubs have once again reverted to suck, and I'm desperate for football season to start, so I'm gonna go ahead and do some bold predicting about this guy:

The man pictured above is Isiah "Juice" Williams, about to enter his fourth year as the starting quarterback for the Illinois Fighting Illini. Now Juice was highly touted as the next Vince Young coming into college (and was heavily recruited by Texas for that fact) and Illinois fans were ecstatic when he arrived on campus. His first three years have seen a 2-10 season, a Rose Bowl trip, and a 5-7 roller coaster of disappointment. Each year Juice has progressed as a passer and next year, in my opinion, will be a huge year for him under new offensive coordinator Mike Schultz. Schultz, formerly the highly successful offensive coordinator for Texas Christian, replaces Mike Locksley, who left to coach New Mexico. I'm sure Schultz will find it hard to replace Locksley's brilliant gameplan of Option Left, Option Right, Deep Ball!, Option Left, Sweep, Offensive Penalty, Sack, Punt. I for one expect Juice to improve under Schultz. But how much improvement? For the basis of my theory I turn to a comparison with the aforemention Vince Young. Here's how the two stack up after three years as starting quarterbacks in college:

Juice
Passing-

2006- 12 G, 8 GS. 103/261 (39.5%), 1,489 yds, 5.7 ypa, 9 tds/9 ints, 124.1 ypg, 91.9 rating

2007- 13 G, 13 GS, 153/267 (57.3%), 1,743 yds, 6.5 ypa, 13 tds/12 ints, 134.1 ypg, 119.2 rating

2008- 12 G, 12 GS, 219/381 (57.5%), 3,173 yds, 8.3 ypa, , 22 tds, 16 ints, 264.4 ypg, 138.1 rating

Rushing-

2006- 154 rushes for 576 yds, 2 tds, 3.7 ypa, 48 ypg

2007- 165 for 755 yds, 7 tds, 4.6 ypa, 58.1 ypg

2008- 175 for 719 yds, 5 tds, 4.1 ypa, 59.9 ypg.

Vince Young
Passing-

2003-12 G, 6 GS, 84/143 (58.7%), 1,155 yds, 8.1 ypa, 6 tds, 7 ints, 96.3 ypg, 130.6 rating

2004-12 G, 12 GS, 148/250 (59.2%), 1,849 yds, 7.4 ypa, 12 tds, 11 ints, 128.4 ypg, 128.4 rating

2005-13 G, 13 GS, 212/325 (65.2%), 3,036 yds, 9.3 ypa, 26 td, 10 ints, 233.5 ypg, 163.9 rating.

Rushing-

2003- 135 rushes for 998 yds, 11 tds, 7.4 ypa, 83.1 ypg

2004-167 for 1,079 yds, 14 tds, 6.5 ypa, 89.9 ypg

2005-155 for 1,050 yds, 12 tds, 6.8 ypa, 80.7 ypg

Now, looking at those two lines you can draw a couple conclusions. The most obvious is that Vince Young is clearly better than Juice Williams and you might be quick to jump to the conclusion that I'm a moron. Vince clearly was much more effective when he chose to pull the ball down and run with it, although I can assure you from watching both Texas during Young's career and Illinois for most of my lifetime that Illinois' offensive line has not been anywhere near as effective for Juice as Texas' was for Vince. As for the passing numbers, however, if you throw out their freshmen years, where Vince split playing time with Chance Mock on a 10-3 Texas squad and Juice learned under fire for a 2-10 Illini team, and only look at their sophomore and junior years (Vince left for the NFL before his senior year), it breaks down like this:

Juice-

372/648 (57.4%),7.6 ypa, 4,916 yds,35 tds/29 ints, 130.0 Rating

Vince-

360/575 (62.6%),8.4 ypa, 4,885 yds,38 tds/21 ints, 148.5 Rating

Again, Vince's numbers are still better but the two lines are similar in most areas, with Vince's better completion % being the greatest difference.

All of this brings me to my point. While some feel Juice has progressed slowly or has failed to live up to his hype, in many ways his career progression when compared to a quarterback with a similar skill set in Vince Young seems to have set him up for a hell of a senior year, assuming certain things go his way. These things include:

1. The offensive line. Last year Illinois had one of the youngest offensive lines in the conference, and it showed. They failed to open up rushing lanes for Juce and running back Daniel Dufrene, which put more pressure on Juice to win games with his arm. They also allowed Juice to be sacked 25 times and forced him to hurry throws in many other games (not to mention that since college football subtracts yards lost on sacks from rushing totals for some inane reason, they may have cost Juice up to 163 yards rushing). If the Illini get better play from the offensive line this year, an active running game would take the pressure off of Juice, he'd have more time in the pocket to improve his decision making and accuracy, and he'd be able to rack up more of his own rushing yards. It's not impossible that this could allow Juice to become the third college quarterback with a 3,000 yd passing/1,000 yd rushing season (Vince Young in 2005 and Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour in 2007 are the other two).

2. If Danny Dufrene (or the other backs) step up as well. I realize I blamed a lot of the runningbacks' struggles last year on the line, but much of it was their fault as well. Dufrene was inconsistent at best last year and failed to show the burst that he had shown as the change of pace back to Rashard Mendenhall in 2007. Dufrene or one of the other backs must step up and become a consistent threat in order to prevent other teams from gameplanning solely around Juice.

3. Better offensive playcalling. As I sarcastically noted above, even though Illinois ranked 19th in the nation in total offense (but certainly not scoring, as a team like Iowa scored 30.3 ppg to Illinois 28.7, despite the Illini gaining nearly 65 more yards per game), far too often the Locksley/Zook brain trust seemed hellbent on calling the option at all costs, even when team's like Iowa and Wisconsin stuffed the ever-loving shit out of it, and their passing acumen seemed limited to chucking it up for grabs somewhere near Arrelious Benn or swinging it out to Dufrene. Hopefully Schultz can call a much more effective game.

4. An improved defense. The Illini struggled mightily on defense last season. They allowed 26.6 ppg, good for 9th out of the 11 Big Ten teams. They were a mediocre 6th in total yards allowed per game with 350.3, they were also 6th against the pass, 7th in sacks, and tied for dead last in interceptions, with 6. There is room for hope though, as the team was among the youngest in the conference on that side of the ball, and they return most of their starters on defense. If the defense can actually hold teams in place next year and take the pressure off of both Juice and the coaching staff, that will go a long way in determining the season Juice and the team will have.

Obviously those are four huge "ifs," but all four are attainable and have significant potential to improve this year. With those improvements in place and Juice stepping up in his senior year, he could generate a great deal of buzz and finally play up to his enormous potential.

Then what would happen next? Well with his rocket arm and outstanding mobility surely a great senior year would at least place him in the conversation about the first round of the 2010 NFL draft. Some team will most likely pick him, tantalized by his talent, and here he will truly live up to the Vince Young comparisons by showing off his horrible mechanics and decision making, forcing throws, and eventually being benched for a racist journeyman.

The UFL?

I realize this is now two posts about non-NFL or college football in two days, but the workday is light and quite frankly I'm stubbornly refusing to write about the Cubs until they give me something Worth writing about. So today I'm going to talk about a novel new concept, the United Football League. The UFL is set to kick off with four teams (Las Vegas, Orlando, New York, and San Fransisco) who will also play additional games in Sacramento, Los Angeles, and....Hartford, Connecticut. Because That's an unexploited football mecca. The league will play on Thursdays and Fridays from October to Thanksgiving. Their motto is "Where the Future Stars Come to Play!" which makes many believe that their ultimate goal is to serve as a developmental/minor league for the NFL from which teams can pull midseason replacements or future prospects.

In case you're wondering whether this league will be devoid of talent, I can assure you its every bit as loaded as the star studded rosters of the highly successful XFL! Why begin with the coaching staffs, where successful NFL coaches Dennis Green (113-94), Jim Haslett (47-61), Jim Fassel (58-53), and Ted Cottrell (defensive coordinator for the Bills, Jets, Vikings and Chargers, he was fired from 3 of the 4) all get a crack at the head jobs!

But what about the players on the field? Well besides the HUGE acquisitions of JP Losman and Tim Rattay, and the rumored acquistion of Ken Dorsey and maybe even Michael Vick*, its clear the team will have proven NFL field generals to light up the scoreboard! Curious about even more illustrious NFL and College vets that are going to take these first steps into a bold new football future? Here's the list of talent accumulated in yesterday's UFL draft!

So I know by now you're asking yourself, "Code Red, where the hell can I get in on some UFL action?" Well, by Golly, if you have the Versus Network, tune in this fall! If you don't, ASK YOUR PROVIDER NOW!!! Whats that, you actually want to be a PART of this fantastic experience? Well here's a place to sign up for tryouts! (honest to God loyal SKO readers, please sign up every single fictional football player you can think of. I've already registered Boobie Miles and Chris Rix (okay, not a fictional quarterback, just a really fake one). Get to it, people.

The UFL! Where the Future Stars Come to Play!**


*All kidding aside, how awesome would it be to see Vick exiled to a league of undrafted free agents and has beens. He might actually complete 60% of his passes! But probably not.

** Disclaimer: Probability of witnessing anything resembling past, present or future stars at a UFL game is extremely low.

The Reports of His Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

This guy, with two home runs today and a healthy .285/10/33/.361/.490/.851 line, would like to extend a hearty "fuck you" to any jackass that advocated starting Micah Hoffpauir back in April.

The Canadian Refugee League

Why are there so many men on the field? What the hell is an Aloutte? If ham is Canadian Bacon, what do they call bacon??

A little confession that I've hinted at before on this site. I f*&king love Canadian Football. Granted it ranks below the NFL, NCAA Football, Arena Football, and Arena Football 2 on my ranks of football leagues, but its football nonetheless, and I enjoy watching it late during summer nights on CSN or wherever the hell its on. I love the 120 yard field. I love the 12 man teams. I love the fact that a punt that lands in the end zone is worth one point. I love that Henry Burris is the world's greatest dual threat quarterback when he's north of the border. But what I love most is seeing which former NFL and college players have taken refuge there. Every summer around the time of the Canadian preseason I check to see what notable names are there, and here are a few that I've seen this year:

On the British Columbia Lions-

Jarious Jackson, Quarterback.
Why you should know him: Jackson was a fairly competent starter in college and once held the Notre Dame record for yards, completions, and attempts during the 1999 season (Brady Quinn would later torch them all). He had a 14-10 record during his junior and senior years, the last two of the Bob Davie era in South Bend. After failing as a quarterback and safety in the NFL with the Broncos, Jackson wound up in BC, where he's been the starter the last two years.

Damian Sims, Runningback.
Why you should know him: He was a fairly decent backup for Albert Young at Iowa during the Drew Tate Era.

On the Edmonton Eskimos-

Jared Zabransky, Quarterback.
Why you should know him: He's the redbearded badass that took Boise State to a victory in the Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma by executing the worlds most beautiful Statue of Liberty Play in 2007. He was also on the cover of NCAA Football 2009.

Ciatrick Fason, Runningback.
Why you should know him: I don't really know, but I remember he played for the Vikings for a few years under Mike Tice when they had nothing resembling a running game.

On the Calgary Stampeders-

HENRY BURRIS, Quarterback.
Why you should know him: Because he's Crazy Legs Mother F*&kin' Burris, That's why. Somewhat of a cult hero at this website, Crazy Legs left a promising career* with the Bears for CFL glory and finally captured his first Grey Cup last year after throwing for 5,094 yards with 39 tds, and running for 595 yards and 5 tds. Here's a video of him OWNING Montreal's Shit-


Drew Tate, Quarterback.
Why you should know him: Because he was a three year starter at Iowa, one of Iggins! most beloved heroes (until Tate's senior year, when a slump led Iggins! to curse his very name),and he is living up to the many Doug Flutie comparisons he earned in college by playing in the CFL.

Matt D'Orazio, Quarterback.
Why you should know him: D'Orazio was a long time quarterback for the Chicago Rush of the Arena Football League and led them to their first Arena Bowl Championship.

On the Hamilton Tiger Cats

David Ball, Wide Receiver
Why you should know him: Broke Jerry Rice's record for most NCAA Division 1AA touchdown catches.

Airese Currie, Wide Receiver
Why you should know him: A fifth round pick of the Bears in 2005, Currie was supposed to be a burner to pair with Mark Bradley and Bernard Berrian, but was injured his entire time with the team.

On the Toronto Argonauts

Cody Pickett, Quarterback
Why you should know him: The all time leader in passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, and completions for the University of Washington, played for the 49ers from 2004-2006and was so desperate to get on the field that he often played special teams and practiced as a wideout and safety.

Zeke Moreno, Linebacker
Why you should know him: A former USC standout who actually started for the Chargers in parts of the 2001-2003 seasons.

Jarrett Payton, Runningback
Why you should know him: The son of the greatest football player in the history of the sport, Jarrett has played for the University of Miami and the Tennessee Titans.

Reggie McNeal, Quarterback
Why you should know him: A four year starter at Texas A&M despite the fact that he sucked eggs, Reggie got the moron that is Dennis Franchione fired, and for that all football fans should be grateful.

For the Montreal Alouettes

Chris Leak, Quarterback
Why you should know him: A four year starter at the University of Florida who won the game MVP when Florida whalloped Ohio State for the national title in January of 2007. Leak then signed with the Bears and actually led some people to root for him to be the third stringer over Kyle Orton. Naturally those people were f*&king wrong.

Adrian McPherson, Quarterback
Why you should know him: A highly touted high school player who was destined for great things at Florida State, got in trouble with the law over a gambling scandal, was banned from playing college football, spent a few years in the Arena Football League and somehow got drafted by the Saints in the fifth round in 2005. Is suing the Tennessee Titans for 20 million dollars because their mascot hit him with a golf cart during a preseason game in 2006.

*Seriously though, he was awful. But I love him nonetheless

Brandon Marshall, Plaxico Burress, and What They Mean to You.

Will Brandon Bring This Awesome Kid With Him? There's a man who looks like a winner!

Most of the recent news surrounding Plaxico Burress seems to have the Bears as one of the four teams that have expressed interest in him. Brandon Marshall loves his former quarterback Jay Cutler and recently has become the second Denver Bronco to storm out and demand a trade. The Bears have a glaring hole at wide receiver that Earl Bennett and Devin Hester's Potential™ probably won't fill all that adequately. So what would be the potential pros and cons of adding either Plaxico or Marshall?

Plaxico's story is pretty long and complicated. Plax was drafted 8th overall by the Steelers in 2000, struggled his rookie year, had some pretty decent years in '02 and '03 and bitched his way out of town by constantly complaining about Bill Cowher's conservative offensive style. He signed with the Giants where between constantly feuding with Tom Coughlin and being the one reliable target for the erratic early years of Eli Manning he managed to catch a touchdown in the Superbowl (one of only two catches he made, but still). This year he started off poorly with a contract hold out, was suspended and fined 45,000 dollars by the team for breaking team rules and then ended his season after shooting himself in the leg when he confused sweat pants for a holster. He sounds perfect, I know.

On the field Plaxico is one hell of a deep threat, however. Throughout his career he's averaged 15.5 yards per catch and is 10th among all active players with 55 touchdown receptions. He's had four seasons of 1,000 yards receiving despite never having more than 78 catches in a single season. With Jay Cutler heaving him the ball, it could be a beautiful thing.

Brandon Marshall's connection with Jay Cutler is already well established. For the last two years, both Cutler and Marshall's first two seasons as full time starters, they've combined for 206 receptions, 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns. Marshall averages a pretty healthy 12.8 yards per catch in his career. He has struggled mightily with dropped passes, especially last year, in which he dropped 18, something he blamed on nerve damage in his arm resulting from smashing it into a tv during a wrestling match with his brother. So that's something.

Marshall's off the field rapsheet is just plain awful, and I'm not gonna detailing all of it but the guy's been arrested or questioned by the cops at least eight times in the last two years, was suspended three games last year (he got it reduced to one by promising good behavior. Then he got arrested in March), and nearly all of the incidents are related to domestic violence against his girlfriend. So we're picking between the guy that shot himself or the guy that frequently abuses his girlfriend (though Burress has also been questioned for domestic violence in the past).

All things considered, the best bet for the Bears would be Plaxico. Marshall's already facing a probable suspension this upcoming season (Roger Goodell does not like to be lied to, see Johnson, Tank or Jones, Adam for details), and would require a raise and a much longer deal from any team that trades for him. With his frequent troubles one can expect that Marshall would become a problem if he stays around too long. Plaxico, however, seems to have gotten his trial put off until 2010 and would probably be willing to sign a one year deal or perhaps a one year + option deal and may represent the much smaller risk. With the Bears in what should be a "win now" mode, I would go for Plaxico, though, really, chances are they wont pick up either receiver. How about that Earl Bennett?

Good News: Kyle Orton Named Starter in Denver, Bad News: Where the F*&k is the Neckbeard?

The good, if unsurprising news, comes from Yahoo! Sports. Some good quotes from the article:

From his coach:

“There’s a lot of difficult aspects about what we ask our quarterback to do in our offense and Kyle has really grasped some of them more quickly than Chris did,” McDaniels said in explaining the move after the second day of a three-day minicamp at the team’s Dove Valley headquarters.

From Kyle:

“I’m obviously really excited,” said Orton, who was a key piece to the Cutler deal that also included four high draft picks. “It’s really just the beginning for me in this offense and hopefully I’ll continue to improve every day and get the offense where we need to be come the season.”

From Kyle's beaten rival, Chris Simms:

"“Kyle’s extremely underrated,” Simms said. “I’ve always felt that way. He was underrated in college and with the Bears. He throws the ball very well. He’s a smart guy. He’s a big guy. There’s a lot of plusses with Kyle.”

Chris also added "I should know, I beat out Major Applewhite!" (this has nothing to add to the story, I just like to work in references to Major Applewhite whenever I can.)

In all honesty it shouldn't be that surprising to anyone that the guy that clearly swayed McDaniels to choose the Bears offer over anyone else's for Cutler was able to beat the free agent pick up who has thrown two passes in the NFL since his spleen exploded three seasons ago. I'd be a little bit embarassed and would probably drink heavily if our Hero failed to accomplish that. The question now is what Kyle will be able to accomplish in Denver since the fans are merciless when it comes to quarterbacks, the coach has shown enough of a steady hand since taking over that he's only driven his franchise quarterback away and seen his top wide receiver skip offseason workouts and threaten a holdout. What the hell, Kyle'll throw for 4,000 yards and activate the clause in his contract that'll require the Broncos to fill a swimming pool full of Jack Daniels and older women for him.

But that's what I think. Let me know what you think! Over on the right side of the page take the poll and tell me how many yards KO will rape the skies over the Mile High City for.

The real question in all of this, though, is where the hell did the neckbeard go? Has the stifling oppression of the Rocky Mountain mentality forced Kyle to fall in line? Shall we stand this injustice! Mais non! Don't let them change who you are Kyle! The neckbeard is you, and you are the neckbeard!

Rex the Texan

Rex Grossman has signed with the Texans, where, in the indignity of indignities, he's expected to compete for the third spot on the depth chart behind Matt Schaub and Dan Orlovsky. Schaub has missed 10 games over the last two years and has never started a full 16 game slate, so it seems likely that at some point during the season Rex will at least be the back up. Orlovsky has never really impressed anyone and showed off his stellar pocket presence last year by running out of the end zone and remaining blissfully ignorant of that fact. He was also the primary starter for the 0-16 train wreck last year. For Rex's sake I can hope that with a depth chart like that he'll find himself back on the field, in which case his arm paired with Andre Johnson might lead to some big games. I bear none of the rage toward Rex that certain Bears fans do and I'd certainly like to see him succeed.

Lets Toss Cookies at Jerry Angelo!

You really have to love the compliant attitudes of team beat writers, be it Carrie Muskat of the Cubs or Larry Mayer of the Bears. In a segment on ChicagoBears.com in which Mayer gets to ask several questions of Bears general manager Jerry Angelo, Mayer pretty much sets up Angelo for a few meat pitches to hit out of the park, which is a bit frustrating coming from one person with unfettered access to the organization. Mayer's questions in bold, Angelo's answers in italics, my brilliance in neither.

LM: Jay Cutler hasn’t missed a single day of the offseason program since he was acquired by the Bears on April 2. How pleased are you with the attitude and leadership skills he has displayed?

This is a wonderful cookie of a question. Let me translate "Just so we can spare you having to bear any uncomfortable questions about anything else you could have done this offseason, lets start off with a reminder that you've acquired Jay Cutler and just ask, hey man, how awesome is Jay Cutler?"

JA: I’ve been very pleased with his day-to-day attitude, and obviously it’s reflected with his work ethic and how he’s approached things. He’s rolled up his sleeves and he’s gone to work. He’s certainly not resting on any laurels. He’s come in here to prove himself and establish himself. I think we’re all impressed with that—I’m talking about coaches and players—because that’s the right way to do it. He’s got to earn his stripes here, and by showing up and doing the things that he’s doing every day, he’s doing it the right way.

Translation: He is SOOO Awesome.

LM: In a leadership position like quarterback, what kind of message does that send to the rest of the team?

Translation: OMG, like, Seriously, does everyone ELSE on the team totally think Jay Cutler is Awesome??

JA: To me, leadership is based on actions. When you come in, it’s your actions that lead because that’s how you gain people’s respect. It’s what you do every day and obviously it starts with your work ethic. I’ve never seen a leader without a great work ethic. Every leader I’ve ever been around has spoke volumes with his actions. It’s not just words, it’s not hype and it’s not some rah-rah thing that we sometimes equate leadership to. The guy doesn’t say much, and he doesn’t need to say a lot because his actions do his speaking.

Translation: Nobody really likes to talk to the kid because they're not sure how to react to a neckbeard-less quarterback.

LM: Which players have impressed you most in the first four OTA practices?

Translation: Jerry, which one of your unimpressive mid level draft picks expected to fill one of the glaring holes in the secondary or receiver corps would you like to blow smoke about so we forget that Anquan Boldin, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Torry Holt were all available this offseason and none of them are playing catch with Cutler?

JA: There have been a handful of guys. Jamar Williams has done a nice job. You can see the athlete that he is. It’s his awareness and confidence levels that stand out. Craig Steltz looks like he’s taking a step. I really like the way Earl Bennett is attacking his role as one of the lead receivers. I feel he’s really showing the things that we all saw back in college. Devin Hester looks like he’s learning the little nuances. I’m watching Devin and he’s just not all speed at receiver. He’s doing things like setting up DBs; he’s getting a feel for that. He’s looking more natural as a receiver. Those are just a few guys. I know I’m missing other guys. I’ve seen Zac Bowman do things out there, looking like we saw him in the short time that we had him last year as well. For the most part, we’re seeing a lot of good things. You can throw Kellen Davis in there too. I’m real happy about the guys who are graduating into their second year in particular in what we’ve seen so far.

Jamar Williams? That guy we heard about for a few years as a surefire replacement for Lance Briggs should he depart? The one who showed us his potential by losing a job to Nick Roach? Where is Craig Steltz stepping? Is he backpedalling until he might finally be able to avoid getting beat on a deep post? Thank God Hester's learning the nuances, though I could swear I heard the same line before last season about how "polished" he was becoming.

LM: From what I’ve seen, no one has made more plays on defense in the OTA practices than Jamar Williams. It seemed like everyone was mentioning him as a possible heir apparent to Lance Briggs (before Briggs signed a long-term extension), but then Nick Roach passed Williams on the depth chart last season. Is it just a matter of the light finally going on for Williams?

Or its the fact that Roach made a pedestrian 38 tackles last year without a single sack, tackle for loss, forced fumble, or interception and they realize fans might actually start to want Hunter Hillenmeyer back in that spot, even though we derided him for four and a half seasons as the weakest link on the defense, so its time to make Jamar Williams sound good again.

JA: It’s not so much that the light has gone on. I feel like it’s more about the opportunity. The coaches made a decision between Jamar and Nick and they obviously opted to go with Nick, but to me it was a photo finish. We’ve always liked Jamar. I think he’s a three-down player. He’s bright, he’s athletic, he’s fast and he’s tough. There’s nothing not to like about him. What we’re seeing now is what we saw when he was in college and what we drafted.

Its good that going into his fourth year in the league we're seeing what he showed in college.

LM: Aside from the players you already mentioned, who are you most interested in watching over the final 10 OTA practices?

Seriously? He named like half the team earlier, who else's name are you seeking? This is a really, really weak question.

JA: I’m not necessarily looking at an individual as I am looking at positions. I want to watch the secondary. We have some veterans there as well as some young guys, and I want to see how that’s meshing together. I’ll also watch the receiver position. Much has been said about it, and I’m understanding of that.

Well thank God our GM understands we're a bit concerned about a receiver corps that ranked near dead last in just about every category and a secondary that ranked 30th against the pass. He doesn't seem to get why our fears aren't alleviated by Juaquin Iglesias and Josh Bullocks, however.

LM: There’s been a lot of speculation about the Bears possibly adding a veteran wide receiver before training camp. What is the likelihood of that happening?

Ah yes, an important question! Although I would have phrased it more like "Jerry, our receiving corps is such a joke that the Onion has mocked it, and several talented veterans have been available this offseason, could you please just add one of them?"

JA: I can’t say that it’s 50/50 or anything like that. We plan on going into training camp with what we have right now. I don’t have any visions of grandeur that a No.1 receiver is going to fall out of the sky and onto our doorstep. There aren’t many No. 1 receivers in the NFL. There are probably as few of them as there are special quarterbacks, so it’s a little bit of a misnomer to think that that player is out there and he’s available. We’ll always look at any player that we feel can help our football team, but we do feel good about the cast of players that we have at that position.

Well, that's a lot of words to say "it's not gonna happen."

LM: Tommie Harris has missed the first few OTAs while resting his knee. How concerned are you that his knee will be a long-term issue that affects his play this season and for the rest of his career?

It is a bit terrifying when the 26 year old keystone of your defensive scheme can't seem to stay healthy, so I'm glad this question was asked.

JA: There’s no major concern with him. He’s going to be up and going at some point here in the OTAs. We feel good about where he’s at medically. There’s nothing to be alarmed about. This is the offseason. We want to make sure that we take care of our players to the best of our ability and we’re always going to err on the side of caution in the offseason. He’s got an issue with his knee; we know that. He has to be smart about it, which he is. We’ve got to be smart about it, which we are. Is his knee pristine? No. it’s not. But it’s not something that he can’t perform well with. We’ve been real smart about how to bring Tommie along in terms of his training program. He’s not the only player. There are customized programs for most of our players because we don’t want the wear and tear to happen during the offseason. We just want to be smart about how we bring our players along. We don’t want to waste any mileage that players have in the offseason. The wear and tear comes during the season, not the offseason. The offseason is dedicated to conditioning, strengthening and training our players within our offensive and defensive schemes.

...Nothing about that made me feel better.

I realize this article was particularly bile fueled for someone who is actually optimistic about this season, but its undeniably frustrating to think that Angelo and the organization might just rest on the Jay Cutler acquisition while ignoring the holes that could be easily tweaked in order to vault this team easily to the top of their division. I'd just like to ask Jerry a few questions myself.

Lyoto Machida... God?

I realize this blog is more about Chicago sports and not MMA (and also that my last post here was posted sometime during the Cold War) but honestly I don't give a fuck. At UFC 98 Lyoto Machida destroyed Rashad Evans to claim the most contested belt in MMA, the UFC Light Heavyweight title. In doing so it seems that many people are making him out to be Jesus. Machida is, to be truthful, my favorite fighter, but I can easily put aside my bias to disect the possibilities of him being defeated. Let's go through the division to see if anyone can beat the Machida karate black belt.

CONTENDER 1!: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
-I love Quinton. He's hilarious, he has completely disregarded the need for any kind of ground game outside of "GET THA FUCK OFFA ME!" and "BITCH IMA PUNCH AND SLAM YO ASS!", and best of all he can actually beat the hell out of people who know that. The differences between Rashad and Rampage though, sadly, aren't very big. The only difference is Rampage has better striking (he could be the best boxer in the UFC) and his blocking is better. But the difference will look negligible when he fights Machida, who can't be hit by the slightly slower-than-Rashad strikes Rampage will throw. And Rampage sure as hell isn't taking Machida down.
THREAT?: NO

-Also, let's throw Wanderlei Silva into this category as well. His strategy would be about the same, and after all, he's just too old.

CONTENDER 2!: Forrest Griffin
-Yes Griffin DID just lose to Rashad, who just lost to Machida, but Griffin was doing well in that fight until he got caught a couple times. If Forrest would stop underestimating his OWN jujitsu he might have-scratch that- WOULD have beaten Rashad. (It also wouldn't hurt if he started bleeding a little... it seems like he can't win if his face isnt soaked in blood). If Griffin can do that against Machida he may very well have a chance on the ground. standing, Forrest is best when using his kicks... and kicks are what Machida loves. Forrest is an extremely intelligent fighter, so he'll probably take the fight to the ground. If he succeeds in that he may be able to beat Lyoto... but it's still only a tiny chance because Lyoto is no slouch on the ground either.
THREAT?: He has a shot... maybe 25%

CONTENDER 3!: Anderson "The Spider" Silva
-The reason Silva is listed at number 3 here is because I don't think he'll pull his head out of his ass fast enough and Forrest is going to knock him unconcious. HOWEVER, if he does manage to awaken his killer instinct fighting Forrest (which is 100% what Dana White and Joe Silva are trying to do at UFC 101) the Spider will be Lyoto's toughest test. It would be the meeting of two fighters who appear, from all angles, to be invincible. Silva has so many different ways to hurt you its (seemingly) impossible to read his attacks. It is this quality that could prove to be the only REAL threat to a long, long Machida title defense.
THREAT?: If he's back to his old self; 50-50 chance. If he's not, we won't have to worry about it.

FINAL CONTENDER: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
-I am only adding Shogun so I can dis him. This guy was so unprepared and unconditioned for the Coleman fight that he couldn't knock out a guy WHO WAS DEAD for 3 full rounds. Then he knocks out Chuck Liddell and people think he's back? Are you nuts? EVERYBODY KNOCKS OUT LIDDELL! The guy blocks with his face! Shogun has one more shot to impress against somebody (winner of Griffin-Silva or maybe Rashad Evans) before I pronounce him dead for good. He hasn't looked impressive for about 18 months. Threaten Jesus? I don't think so.
THREAT?: FUCK AND NO.

Essentially, Machida is doing something I have always wondered about. These days fighters seem absolutely sure that the way to victory in MMA is through either Boxing or Muay Thai, a solid wrestling base, and/or BJJ skills. But what if somebody actually mastered a different martial art? Stepped outside the box? Machida has done that and the results aren't that surprising. His footwork is probably the prettiest thing I've ever seen, he has no hesitation to exploit an opening, and his strikes are dead on. He is the closest thing to an unbeatable fighter there is. Enjoy watching him while you can until he inevitably rises to Heaven to reign over us for a millenia.

I'm Sorry Kyle

...that you have to put up with this god awful Denver sportwriting. Now, since the Cutler-Orton trade, I've operated, as have most intelligent Bears fans, on the following few assumptions.

1. Kyle Orton is a good quarterback.
2. Jay Cutler is a better quarterback than Kyle Orton
3. The Broncos have a more talented skill set on offense than the Bears.

This has led me to form the opinion that Kyle Orton will put up better numbers for the Broncos than he did for the Bears, but he will not put up the numbers Jay Cutler did in that same offense. Likewise, Jay Cutler will put up less impressive numbers in Chicago than he did in Denver, but will be much better than Kyle Orton was for the Bears last year. This makes any direct comparison between the statistics of the two absolutely pointless. That's why this article by some tool at the InDenver Times (InDenver? What the hell..?) named Hunter Ansley, entitled "The case for Kyle Orton as an upgrade" is a bit...well...terrible. So today I'm going to break this thing down. His quotes in italics.

There is now an unmistakable intertwinement lashing the New England Patriots to the Denver Broncos. When the second-biggest name in Broncos history walked away from the sidelines after an abysmal home stretch that saw the franchise drown in the wake of a possible playoff birth, Pat Bowlen turned to the Patriots and happily plucked their freshest face. From that moment on, there has been no mistaking whose team this is. The Broncos belong to Josh McDaniels.The rest of the rope comes from seemingly parallel circumstances that, on the surface, appeared damning to the future success of each program. For the Patriots it was the sickening deflation of watching Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard clear Tom Brady’s schedule. There’s still no word on the exact amount Giselle paid for all that extra “Tom time.”

I would suggest to anyone who is interested in writing something that will be read by the public that they should first glance at the Six Rules written by George Orwell in "Politics and the English Language," specifically Rule No.2 - never use a long word where a short one will do. "Unmistakeable intertwinement?" Seriously? How hard is it to say "there's an unmistakeable connection" or "they will forever be linked?" Anyways, apparently the euphemism for Pat Bowlen canning the most successful coach in Bronco's history is that he "walked away from the sidelines" The last two sentences of this paragraph are just pure garbage. I honestly can't tell what he means by "The rest of the rope comes from seemingly parallel circumstances that, on the surface, appeared damning to the future success of each program." He says in the next sentence that the damning circumstance for the Patriots is the destruction of Tom Brady's knee, which, given Bill Belichick's intelligence, would seem to dictate that he's probably well on his way to recovery or else they'd not have tossed Cassel away. And is he implicating that Giselle paid Bernard Pollard to take out Tom Brady's knee? Seriously...I have no idea what that lame attempt at a joke was meant to do.

But for the Broncos, the saga was more grueling, more excruciating, and so scintillatingly drawn out. Watching McDaniels and Jay Cutler slowly dig the trench between them was a tedious task. The fans in Denver weren’t afforded the luxury of having a split-second decision forcefully made for them. We watched. And we waited. And we all knew the eventual outcome, regardless of our allegiance. And when it came, the decision to trade Cutler was less painful than the process that preceded it.

Those poor Denver fans. It's not like they've mercilessly attacked every QB from Brian Griese (which I'm totally behind) to a relatively successful Jake Plummer in an unfair comparison to one of the top five quarterbacks of all time, one that, you know, retired a decade ago.

Now there is a new hope, though at first glance his springs seem less eternal. Kyle Orton is the 40-watt to Cutler’s halogen. But if you paid any attention in 2008, the electrician on the scene is tailor-made for the situation. If McDaniels can conjure an 11-win season out of a Brady-less Patriots team, how could anyone else be up to the task of replacing the most talented prima donna Mile High has ever seen?

"His springs seem less eternal." My lord I have never seen someone so bad at trying to make a clever play on words. I don't believe the expression has ever referred to actual, mechanical springs, which he's using here to talk about.....Kyle's....arms...? Also, I forgot Josh McDaniel's conjured an 11 win season out the Patriots. That Belichick asshole probably just took all the credit. It must have been hard to conjure 11 wins out of a team that only had a back up quarterback with four years of experience in the system, one of the best receiving corps in the league, a stellar offensive line, a top of the line defense, and one of the best (and most evil) head coaches ever. I mean he engineered one hell of a turnaround from a team that was a pathetic 16-0 last year.

There was an aftershock of dismay when the fans around Denver learned that divisional rival Kansas City had landed McDaniels’ golden goose, Matt Cassell. And when Orton, the man who had unselfishly charged himself with bringing the neck beard into the public eye, donned a different shade of orange and blue, the discontent blossomed.

Actually, I bet the dismay was more along the lines of "why the fuck are we going after Matt Cassel when Cutler is better?" And don't try to get on our good sides by mentioning the glorious neckbeard.

But what exactly did the Broncos get in Orton?

He’s certainly no Cutler. His arm won’t team with the ball to leave welts on receivers’ stomachs. But it is strong. Strong enough to battle the winds that whip through Soldier Field on a weekly basis. He won’t scramble like a bat out of hell to pick up a 3rd and 10, but he can move. He has consistently shown the ability to listen to his internal clock and evade pressure long enough to avoid statue status.

Other quarterbacks whose arms have been strong enough to throw in the overrated wind at Soldier Field- Shane Matthews, Cade McNown, Brian Griese, Chris Chandler, Craig Krenzel, Steve Walsh. All textbook examples of strong arms. I want you to note in this paragraph how he dismisses Cutler's ability to run for first downs and praises Orton's ability not to get sacked. It'll be important later.

Perhaps more important, he won’t force passes into triple coverage because of a fallible sense of hubris in his arm strength. Orton has been labeled a “safe quarterback.” While that stigma may cause cringes in the guts of those used to watching a take-no-prisoners gunslinger whip the ball across the field, it should be viewed as an upgrade.

This is my favorite myth ever- the caretaker quarterback. Proponents of this theory usually point to Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson and say that you don't need a good quarterback to win the Superbowl. Its mostly crap. True, you can make the quarterback far less important if you happen to have one of the greatest defenses of all time, but for the most part a working offense is necessary to get anywhere in the NFL. Kyle was not a "safe quarterback" for the first half of the year he was flinging it with the best of them and made smart decisions. Then the ankle injury occurred, and while it slowed him briefly, it cannot be the sole reason for the incredibly poor decisions, and I really hate saying this, that he made down the stretch last year during his 121-221, 54.8%, 1,195 yd, 170.7 ypg, 5.4 YPA, 8 td, 8 int, 67.2 rating second half. Some of the awful interceptions thrown in the game at Minnesota, the miracle win against Green Bay, and the poor game against the Saints were just plain terrible passes.

There’s no denying the fact that Cutler was forced to pass more often than Einstein in elementary school, but the sidelines exist for a reason. There is a back to each end zone that provides more intelligent quarterbacks with a safe haven for the ball when the receivers are hidden behind defenders. Cutler ignored these areas more times than not. His 18 interceptions were second only to the aging Brett Favre’s. Orton and his 12 picks took a back seat to Cutler. His numbers had him tied with Peyton Manning and ahead of Tony Romo and Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger.

Actually Albert Einstein didn't speak until he was four and was mostly a poor student in his early years, and a few teachers actually described him as mentally slow, so there goes yet another of his lame attempts at wordplay. Also, way to point out, while apparently making the argument that interceptions are just the worst team destroying thing ever, that the Super Bowl Champion Quarterback had more of them than Kyle Orton. Also, I'll take 25-18 vs 18-12.

I know what everyone is thinking. Cutler may have turned it over at an accelerated rate, but he sure scored more. But take a look at the seasons both were having before Orton injured his ankle in week nine. Through eight games, Cutler had found the end zone 15 times through the air, but he’d also found an opponent on 10 occasions. Orton was looking like his team’s MVP with an efficiently productive 10-4 ratio. The Broncos were 4-4, having just dropped three straight contests. The Bears were 5-3 coming off of back-to-back victories.

Everyone is thinking that because its true. And logical. And its why Jay Cutler is a better quarterback. And apparently, the fact that Bears were 1 game better than the Broncos at the half is proof positive that Kyle is better than Cutler....how? Whether the Bears had won two in a row the Broncos had lost 3 in a row is irrelevant...it's one game.

And before you tell me the Bears defense was light years ahead of Denver’s, I’ll remind you that a mere 40 yards per game separated the two statistically. Is it just me, or is Orton’s facial hair looking a little less unkempt and a little more chic?

Wow. This is just an awful use of statistics. For the record that "mere" 40 yards difference was the difference between the Bears 21st ranked defense and the Broncos 29th. Hell, if its just a mere 40 yards, lets subtract 40 yards from the Bears and see where that puts them...oh, apparently that makes them a top 10 defense. Which they clearly weren't. Also, the Bears allowed 21.9 ppg, the Broncos allowed 28.0 ppg. So yeah, as crappy as the Bears defense was last year, they Were light years ahead of the Denver.

Now factor in the truth that in Chicago he played behind a line that allowed 29 sacks while Cutler roamed free behind the NFL’s best blockers and was only taken to the turf a dozen times. And the weapons around each passer? It’s not even close. Kleenex Jay was gifted with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler. Gillette Orton had . . . Devin Hester. When you get right down to it, bringing in a guy who enjoyed even a deli slice of success with perhaps the worst receiving corps in the country is a good move when you consider the skill-spike in playmakers he’ll now get to utilize. Orton will only get better with upgraded talent fighting beside him. Yes, he will miss Matt Forte in the backfield, but the Broncos just plucked Knowshon Moreno with the 12th pick. There wasn’t a more talented runner in the draft who catches the ball as well as the newest face of the Denver ground game.

See this is why I told you to pay attention earlier when he ignored Cutler's mobility but praised Orton's ability to avoid the rush. Here he points out how many times Orton got sacked and ignores the possibility that Cutler's mobility contributed to the low number of times he was sacked. You know what's a better move than bringing in a guy who had a little amount of success last year with a less talented offense than the one he's moving to? Keeping the guy who had a Lot of success with that same offense.

Pat Bowlen works in mysterious ways. Though it may have been viewed as literally dropping the ball, missing out on Cassell was the best thing that could have happened to this franchise. If Cutler’s departure was a foregone conclusion, and it was, then bringing in a quarterback who fits McDaniels’ system as well as his former New England protégé was a coup.

Ho. Ly. Shit. Did this guy literally just switch gears in the middle of an article about Orton being an upgrade over Cutler into Orton being an upgrade over Cassel...who was never a Bronco? That's just horrible writing.

Orton has been playing in a Chicago system that stressed his weaknesses. He was never a smooth fit in a vertical scheme. Finding a round hole for a circular quarterback is paramount. I don’t care how good of a kayaker you are, you’ll always lose to a cyclist in a road race. This is a quarterback who put up 31 touchdowns against only five interceptions in a collegiate offense that more closely resembles what McDaniels will do than any other offense in the league. And what was Cassell doing during Orton’s spectacular senior season? He was in his final year of modeling Trojans ball caps while studying the moles on the back of Pete Carroll’s neck.

Wait. The Bears have a vertical scheme? Is that why Orton only attempted 59 passes longer than 20 yards out of his 465 attempts for a whopping 12.6%? You're right, Ron Turner's a regular Air Coryell. Also, I can say that whatever Orton or Cassell did in college is irrelevant now, given that they're both in their 5th year in the NFL and Cassell performed well (albeit as a system quarterback) last year, proving his lack of college experience was probably mitigated by three years learning the system behind one of the best quarterbacks in history.

So, while Cassell may have been the popular choice to replace Cutler, this season will see Brady’s former backup work to avoid a sophomore slump for the first time since his second year of high school football. Orton, on the other hand, will be settling in as a fifth-year veteran of the league. While Cassell gazed at his cuticles grasping a clipboard on so many sidelines, Orton was learning by doing at the highest level in the world. His arm is stronger. His active career has been longer, and his future is brighter because you cannot inject experience into a player. I don’t care what Major League Baseball says.

Orton was drafted in 2005. Cassell was drafted in 2005. Meaning...wait for it, yes, Cassell is actually Not a sophomore, and is in fact also a fifth year veteran, one with 30 career games vs. Orton's...33. Orton has been a full time starter for two of his four previous years, and sat the bench the two years in between, Cassell has been a full time starter for one year. The difference in experience between the two is hardly that extreme. Also, way to end with yet another horrible, horrible joke. This guy's so horrible at his job I'm astounded he doesn't work for the Sun Times.

Well, Kyle, good luck in Denver, just don't answer any of this guy's questions.

It's Purely Statistical, Sean...

That bastard Randy Wells, disregarding Sean Marshall's feelings.

0-1, 5.87 ERA, 2.35 WHIP, .300 BAA

3-1, 2.90 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, .216 BAA

0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, .167 BAA

Those are three stat lines important to this discussion. The first is Neal Cotts' line this year, which we can all pretty much assume by now just isn't going to get better, given his 4.55 career era and 1.466 career WHIP. The second is what Sean Marshall has done in his career as a reliever (vs. 15-23, 4.73 ERA, 1.425 WHIP, .269 BAA starting). The third is what Randy Wells has done in the first 16.1 innings of his major league career, and its why he needs to be the fifth starter for the foreseeable future.

Now I don't know that Randy Wells is capable of continuing to pitch all that effectively as the fifth starter. His career minor league numbers are pretty decent (43-27, 3.74 ERA, 1.336 WHIP) and he was off to the best start of his career at Iowa before the call up, so that gives some reasons for optimism. The fact of the matter is that this team will be better if Wells continues to pitch quality innings as the fifth starter when Zambrano comes back and Marshall moves to the pen and makes Neal Cotts completely irrelevant. There's really no downside to this unless one considers Sean Marshall's feelings, which I don't. If Wells works as the fifth starter, Marshall immediately makes the bullpen more effective, which as we all know is a necessity as so far the only pitchers that have been reliable more often than not are Marmol and Angel Guzman. If Marshall moves to the pen not only does he fill the LOOGY role that, while overrated, seems important to Lou, but he's a guy Lou has faith in and will pitch in a much bigger role than that as well. If Wells starts to fumble you can always move Marshall back to the rotation.

I've heard some pretty inane arguments against this move, from "Marshall deserves it" to "call up a lefty from Iowa." The problem with the first argument is simple. Who cares? Yeah, I too think Sean Marshall could develop into a solid middle of the rotation starter. The problem? He hasn't particularly grabbed the job by the balls with his 4.73 ERA as a starter. If he deserves it so much, he could probably have taken it by now. This team needs to win now, and Marshall is more helpful to them in the pen at this time. In the future he may benefit them more in the rotation, in which case....he goes back. It's not rocket science, people. The second one sounds great. The only problem is there's not a single left hander at Iowa or even the entire minor league system who is even on the 40 man roster. Not a single one. This means there'd have to be several moves to displace someone from the roster and call up either Jason Waddell (5.73 ERA), Jayson Ruhlman (10.57 ERA) or journeyman JR Mathes. I'm not really all that inspired by those options.

So we're left with the fact that Wells should start, if only for a few games to see if he's a real big leaguer or just a mirage, and Marshall should go to the pen, more because of Neal Cotts' failings rather than his own. Sorry Sean, but this is how its gotta be.