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Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Bears vs. Seahawks, the Statbook

Bears: 11-5
Seahawks: 7-9

Points Scored
Bears: 334 (20.9 PPG)
Seahawks: 310 (19.4 PPG)

Total Offense:
Bears: 289.4 YPG (30th in the NFL)
Seahawks: 297.8 YPG (28th in the NFL)

Pass Offense:
Bears: 188.4 YPG (28th in the NFL)
Seahawks: 208.8 YPG(19th in the NFL)

Rush Offense:
Bears: 101 YPG (22nd in the NFL)
Seahawks: 89 YPG (31st in the NFL)

Passing TDs:
Bears: 23 (20th in the NFL)
Seahawks: 14 (28th in the NFL)

Rushing TDs:
Bears: 10 (21st in the NFL)
Seahawks: 13 (12th in the NFL)

Points Allowed:
Bears: 286 (17.9 PPG)
Seahawks: 407 (25.4 PPG)

Total Defense:
Bears: 314.3 (9th in the NFL)
Seahawks: 368.6 (27th in the NFL)

Pass Defense:
Bears: 224.3 YPG (20th in the NFL)
Seahawks: 249.6 YPG (27th in the NFL)

Rush Defense
Bears: 90.1 YPG (2nd in the NFL)
Seahawks: 118.9 YPG (21st in the NFL)

Passing TDs Allowed:
Bears: 14 (2nd in the NFL)
Seahawks: 31 (29th in the NFL)

Bears: 21 (5th in the NFL)
Seahawks: 12 (25th in the NFL)

Turnover Differential:
Bears: +4 (11th in the NFL, 31 Turnovers, 35 Takeaways)
Seahawks: -9 (27th in the NFL, 31 Turnovers, 22 Takeaways)

Individual Leaders:
Chicago: Jay Cutler- 261/432 (60.4%), 3274 yds, 23 TDs, 16 INTs, 86.3 Rating, 7.6 YPA, 218.3 YPG
Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck- 266/444 (59.9%), 3001 yds, 12 TDs, 17 INTs, 73.2 Rating, 6.8 YPA, 214.4 YPG

Chicago: Matt Forte- 237 attempts, 1069 yds, 6 TDs, 4.5 YPA, 66.8 YPG
Seattle: Marshawn Lynch- 165 attempts, 573 yds, 6 TDs, 3.5 YPA, 47.8 YPG

Chicago: Johnny Knox- 51 catches, 960 yds, 5 TDs, 18.8 YPC, 64.0 YPG
Seattle: Mike Williams-65 catches, 751 yds, 2 TDs, 11.6 YPC, 57.8 YPG

So there you have it. The Bears have a significant edge in nearly every statistical category. Obviously that adds up to nothing in the playoffs (ask the Saints), but it should tell you each team's general strengths and weaknesses and what to look for. If I may make excuses for the Bears, I'd like to mention how their numbers on offense are dragged down by A) Using five different offensive line combinations before the bye and B) Six full quarters of Todd Collins in which the Bears managed 0 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, and only 110 and 247 uards offense. Since the bye week, the Bears offense has been much more respectable, averaging 23 PPG (28 PPG in their seven wins since that time). I'd add that their starting position, thanks to Dave Toub's awesome special teams and a plethora of takeaways, is the best in the NFL and thus their yardage numbers are hurt somewhat in a good way. Their turnover differential, minus Todd Collins, is +9, which would put them at 5th in the NFL.

My prediction? I think Seattle will have a very difficult time running the ball and I don't think the Bears will be susceptible to the big plays that doomed the Saints. I'd expect Seattle to regress to the mean and the Bears to win the turnover battle. I'm aware the Seahawks won in Chicago earlier this year, but we can all agree that Bears team barely resembles this one and was also missing Lance Briggs, a key component of the Cover 2. Also, Seattle went just 1-6 in their other seven road games, with a win over the lowly Cardinals. I think Seattle is vulnerable against the run, something the Saints failed to exploit due to their devastated depth at runningback and having to play from behind in the second half. I'd say 27-14 Bears, with Matt Forte's performance being the key on offense.

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