The Well, I Guess I Am Doing This Afterall 2012 Bears Position Reviews: Quarterbacks

I told myself I wasn't going to do this awful, time-consuming position-by-position recap of the Bears roster this year. It's often depressing, I'm usually burnt out after another late season collapse, and half the people I review are usually gone in free agency by the time I actually finish it. That said, well, the draft is a long way and I'm bored, and so you get to benefit.

Starting today with the quarterbacks:

#6 Jay Cutler: 15 games, 15 games started. 255/434 (58.8%), 3033 YDs, 19 TDs, 14 INTs, 81.3 Rating, 7.0 YPA, 11.9 YPC, 202.2 YPG

More than anything else in 2012, Jay Cutler was the victim of one thing. You could say poor protection, once again, but the culprit was something other than that: wishful thinking. You see, before this year the Jay Cutler camp was pretty neatly divided into the people who have hated him since day one and always will, barring anything but a Superbowl victory, and the more rational part of the fanbase that saw him as a very good quarterback frequently struggling to overcome a supporting cast that's anything but. We'd drawn up those battle lines three years ago, and things had worked out pretty well so far.

Then Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery came along. Mike Tice replaced Mike Martz. Gabe Carimi was going to be the starting right tackle, finally. All of these things meant change, we told ourselves. We even believed that Mike Tice, who had never called plays, had to automatically be an upgrade over Mike Martz, a guy who once directed the NFL's highest-scoring offense in history, simply because he was going to eliminate seven step drops. All of us, including myself, fell into this trap and refused to accept any of the possible evidence to the contrary. The result was that we assumed the problems that ailed the Bears offense were solved before they'd even played a down, and Jay Cutler now pays for this mistake.

As it turned out, while Brandon Marshall is great, there's only so much one wide receiver can do, while Alshon Jeffery and Earl Bennett struggled to even stay on the field, Devin Hester regressed for the fourth straight year, and the tight end position was a black hole where one of every three passes clanged off of stone hands and fell to the ground. Gabe Carimi was even worse in pass protection than the turnstiles the team had thrown out there before him, and was just one of the offenders on Pro Football Focus' 30th ranked offensive line. Perhaps worst of all, Mike Tice proved to be nothing more than a slightly more ballsy John Shoop, a guy with a motley collection of plays that lacked any of the founding principles or cohesion of a legitimate offensive system who often seemed to be just throwing shit at the walls in hopes that something would stick.

But I know, I know. No more excuses for Cutler. You're tired of them. Hell, I'm tired of them. I'm not sure anymore he can be the top ten quarterback I long believed him to be, but I also know that they still haven't created an environment that would allow any quarterback to be one.

In case you haven't heard, from Rosenbloom, Bernstein, or any of the other hacks, this year the story is the same: No more excuses for Jay. Before they've even taken a snap, Jermon Bushrod and Martellus Bennett have fixed the offense, so everything that happens is to be pinned, once again, on the shoulders of number 6. Should they fail, as so many Bears free agents have before them, it doesn't matter, because they're not supposed to, and it'll be Jay's fault if they do.* This time, though, there'll be no reprieve because time will have run out.

That'll be a shame, because, all bullshit aside, Jay's still a damn good quarterback. Pro Football Focus gave him a +8.7 grade this year, his best since his Pro Bowl season in 2008. That doesn't necessarily jive with his conventional numbers, but it turns out you get a much different picture if you factor out the 12% of Jay's passes that were dropped, or consider that, with Tice calling deep balls on a whopping 15.9% of his passes, Jay didn't often have the luxury of padding his stats with routine completions. It's also impressive that he was 3rd in the NFL in completion % while under pressure, considering he was under duress more than any other QB on a contending team.

So yeah, the excuses are gone, even if the problems may not be. After years of "defining moments" for Jay Cutler that actually weren't, he will make or break himself next year. I sure hope he pulls it off, because I don't want to look back on the last five years as a waste. With just one more 3,000 yard season he'll assume his place as the leading passer in Bears history, and yet some people think they'll be better off without him. I have a hard time believing that.

#2 Jason Campbell: 6 games, 1 game started. 32/51 (62.7%), 265 YDs, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 72.8 Rating, 5.2 YPA, 8.3 YPC, 44.2 YPG

I always wonder why the people who criticize the sometimes underwhelming numbers Jay posts as the Bears starting quarterback never bother to compare them to the numbers of everyone else who has tried starting a game for the team in Jay's absence the last three years. Sure, there's more than enough reason to believe Todd Collins and Caleb Hanie would suck even if you place them on the Patriots, but Jason Campbell has always put up respectable numbers on terrible Redskins and Raiders teams with shoddy offensive lines of their own. Even he, however, seemed completely shell-shocked, indecisive, and overwhelmed by the poor situation he was placed in in this offense. Oh well. At least the Bears sabotaged him enough to lower his asking price to a point where they can probably re-sign him to back up Jay again this year?

#12 Josh McCown

Cut at the end of the preseason and re-signed when Jay was concussed. Probably back coaching high school football again.

That's it for now. Tomorrow (maybe) I'll move onto the runningbacks.

*- I don't think Bushrod or Bennett will be disappointments. I certainly hope they won't, but we still shouldn't jump the gun, again. 

Goodbye, Brian

As you probably know, the Bears have announced that they've moved on from Brian Urlacher. For the first time in thirteen years, the Bears will go into the season with a different starting MLB.Urlacher supposedly was given an offer of one year, $2 million and opted not to take it. We'll see how that works out for him.

Let's get the basics out of the way before I move on:

1) This was the right move. Anyone who wants to deny that Urlacher was not very good last year is a fool. His numbers were down, Pro Football Focus had him graded at -11.2, and he suffered two major injuries in two years. His on-field play was highly unlikely to return to form. The Bears could very easily replace his production from last year with a street free agent or a rookie. As for his play from 2000-2011, well, Brian wasn't going to give that to you either.

2) Phil Emery is going to take a lot of shit. The word disrespect will be thrown out a lot. Urlacher's leadership will be mentioned incessantly. His teammates will be interviewed and the locker room will be "upset." All of this was said about Olin Kreutz, and he was terrible before retiring less than half of the way through the season. None of these intangibles will add up to a good football player anymore, and none of them would justify committing precious resources to a burned-out player. As for the locker room? They'll shut up and play football because it's their fucking job. Also, understand that the same columnists and jackasses who will wax nostalgic about Brian and criticize the Bears for letting him go are the exact same people who got an entire summer's worth of work out of writing about how the Bears were foolish not to realize he was done last year.

3) I'm aware this leaves the Bears "thin" at linebacker. I have a crazy gut instinct though that they will add players before the season starts in September. This is because I am psychic and can see beyond your mortal realm.

All of the sarcasm aside, this is still sad news, even if it's not bad news. It's difficult to explain what Brian Urlacher meant to any Bears fans who are my age. Those of us who were born or grew up after the Ditka Bears had long since retired or declined spent years suffering at the hands of Dave Wannstedt and Dick Jauron without a single thing to hang our hat on. The team desperately tried to make names out of guys like Erik Kramer, Curtis Conway, and Big Cat Williams, but no one outside of Chicago truly cared.

Urlacher didn't bring respectability to the franchise, as some may say. They were still embarrassing for a good part of his career. But he did give you a reason to watch besides sheer obligation. He was exciting. He was dominant. He had a combination of speed and power that we're probably not going to see again at that position in a generation. He was a Bear worthy of comparison to the guys our Dads rooted for, and we loved him for it.

He was frequently derided as overrated, and to some extent he was. He was a Hall of Fame player, but we had nothing else and so we made him out to be even more than that. We bought his jersey in record numbers and brought him unwarranted criticism just because people were tired of hearing us talk about him even while the team was going 4-12, but he was something to root for, and we really, really needed that.

Later in his career the team really did become respectable, and unlike Sammy Sosa, the last Chicago superstar to make a living out of being the hero of a terrible franchise, he wasn't threatened by the emergence of other stars like Briggs, Tillman, Forte, or even Cutler. He wanted to win. It's a shame they never won it all with him on the roster. They were close, and no one fought harder than he did to get there.

So yes, today is a sad day. I'm sure Erik will have his work cut out for him fighting off the tidal wave of stupid this will unleash, but today we can at least agree with the meatheads on one point. It will really suck to not have Brian Urlacher anymore, even if they won't understand that the Brian Urlacher we all loved disappeared with his knee ligaments in Minnesota last year.

And We're Back! Sadly, so is Morrissey.

First and foremost, I apologize for our extended absence from the airwaves. Red usually does some X’s and O’s shit during this period, but there seemed little point in doing so during a period of major transition. I had little to comment about in the media, as there just hadn’t been much to talk about until free agency began. Iggins! is just butthurt that nobody else around here cares about basketball, no matter how creatively he names his posts.

Anyway, as you may have heard, not one, not two, but three Chicago sportswriters came away from Tuesday’s glorious acquisitions of Martellus Bennet and Jermon Bushrod thinking “Man, we’ll finally get to blame Jay Cutler when he fails.” Seriously, it’s like they want him to lose just so they can be right.

Since he’s the most offensive, and also because we just flat-out dislike him the most, I chose to go after Morrissey’s. Did you really expect anything else? You know the drill by now, he’s in italics.

Me and Marty B: Bears Free Agency So Far

Oh, hello there. You may have forgotten we existed. That's okay. We kind of did, too. Sure, I probably should have done my yearly methodical player reviews to fill the space between our discussion of Lovie/Trestman and free agency, but there were other, more important things and I didn't feel like doing it. Sue me.

The last two days, however, have provided actual activity to discuss, so let's get to it.

As you all know by now, the Bears have made two major free agent signings: LT Jermon Bushrod of the Saints for five years and nearly $40 million, and TE Martellus Bennett for a rumored four years and $20 million. If you've been following those developments on Twitter than you also know two things: Bushrod is overpaid and was barely better than J'Marcus Webb this year and Marty B. is somewhat crazy.

Here's what I have to say about point one: Yes, if you are just looking at Bushrod as an upgrade at left tackle, he probably didn't out play J'Marcus Webb enough in 2012 to justify his contract. According to Pro Football Focus, the source of this controversy, Webb finished the year with an overall grade of -0.8 while Bushrod finished at +1.5. That's not a vast difference, certainly not one worth $7 million annually, so clearly the Bears made a mistake, right?

I disagree. Bushrod did have a slow start this year (after starting at -7.5 in his first three games, he was much closer to his 2011 form the rest of the year), but still finished with a positive grade. He also was one of the top ten tackles in all of football in 2011 at +14.0, while Webb is just a year removed from a -16.2 in 2011. That right there IS a vast difference.

Considering Bushrod is just 28, there's no reason to believe that a repeat of his above-average 2012 is what to expect going forward, rather than his stellar 2011. There's also little reason to believe that Webb, who had to make monumental leaps just to reach his slightly-below-aveage peak this year, is going to develop much beyond that. Their metrics also don't account for the fact that Webb frequently required the assistance of tight ends and runningbacks, while Bushrod was left alone on nearly 80% of Drew Brees' 697 dropbacks (the Bears attempted just 529 dropbacks). As the Pro Football Focus guys themselves said, "With a fan base baying for a change of plan at left tackle it would’ve been a very brave move to leave Webb in place for the 2013 season."

Even if Bushrod simply repeats his 2012 performance, however, that's still not an indication that the Bears were wrong to sign him. This team needed to add a proven tackle. They made a hard push for Phil Loadholt, the Vikings right tackle, before he chose to stay in Minnesota. That right there should tell you that they understand that Webb wasn't a disaster at LT this year. Once Loadholt was off the market,  the Bears were left with a market that contained more good LTs than RTs, and they realized that adding a quality tackle is better than not adding one.

Lost in all of this is that the Bears aren't cutting J'Marcus Webb, who suddenly has a strangely large and dedicate following despite years of often unwarranted criticism. Emery's already announced that Webb will compete at right tackle, if he wins the job (and sorry, Gabe Carimi, but there's little reason to believe he won't), there's plenty of reason for optimism. Webb's light years ahead of the raw, undisciplined rookie who posted a -32.5 grade in 9 starts at RT in 2010. This is a move that may have improved both tackle positions, and not just provided a marginal upgrade at one. It's a good move.

As for point two: Oh yeah,  Marty B. is crazy. That's a well-established pattern from the day at the combine when he answered a question regarding him playing both basketball and football in college with "football is my wife, basketball is my mistress." In his press conference today he referred to himself as the Black Unicorn and said he signed with the Bears because they're his second favorite animal after dinosaurs.

He's also a very good tight end. After emerging from Jason Witten's shadow in Dallas and signing with the Giants last year he caught 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 TDs. He's also what Pro Football Focus described as an elite blocker, and that factored into their statement that Bennett was undoubtedly the best TE on the market, even if Jared Cook was a flashier receiver. This is a huge upgrade over Kellen Davis (fun stat: he dropped 29.6% of all catchable balls thrown his way last year. Woof), but you didn't need me to tell you that.

The next few days and weeks before the draft will truly show us what Phil Emery is made of, as he juggles the monumental tasks of creating cap space, cutting veterans (Kellen Davis, Matt Toeiana, and Matt Spaeth all got the axe today or will in the next few days), and figuring out if/how to re-sign the teams own veterans and add a few other bargains, if possible. As Emery himself said in his press conference, the Bushrod and Bennett moves are also important in that they gave the team a great deal of flexibility in the draft. I'm sure I'll have more to say by then.

Conclusion: These were good moves. Go Bears.

Tuesday(?) Hoopyball Recap



-It was a long weekend for me, so the recap will span from two Fridays past to last night! The Bulls went 5-2 since Friday, January 11:

The Bulls kicked off this stretch by shellacking the Knicks. They won 108-101 but were up comfortably halfway through the fourth before they let the Knicks score a bunch of garbage time points. The game said equal things about how over their own heads the Knicks were playing to start the year and how good the Bulls can be.

Of course, the Bulls followed that up by losing by 16 points, at home, to the worst team in the West, Phoenix. I wrote about this last Monday, but it bears repeating: the Bulls simply can't take nights off. Before they could turn in lackluster efforts and be bailed out by D. Rose. Without him they need to work hard night in and night out. Luckily, it does seem like this loss kicked the Bulls into gear.

The next game came Monday against Atlanta, and you may not see a better defensive performance from a team all season. The Bulls won 97-58, broke several defensive records, and made Atlanta look like an AAU team. It certainly seemed like the beating administered by the Suns started something in this team that had been lacking for much of the season.

Next came an OT game against the Raptors in Toronto. The Bulls managed a 2 point win, but it wouldn't have ever been that close, and certainly would not have gone to overtime in the first place, if Marco Belinelli would not have taken 7 ill-advised shots down the stretch. Despite Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer both being on the floor, the Bulls ran their entire offense through Belinelli for the last 4 minutes of regulation and almost the entirety of overtime (before they got smart and gave it to Deng to finish it off). I like Belinelli, but he was out of control on this night and he didn't have his shot. I can't be sure if this was Thibs' idea or the team's, but it shouldn't have happened. Deng should have been the go-to guy.

On Friday the Bulls played their second straight overtime game, this one in Boston versus the Celtics. Deng and Boozer had great games, but Deng went down in the fourth (and hasn't played since, he's day to day) and things looked bleak. Luckily, as time was running out Marco Belinelli charged the hoop and lost the ball (there was much rage, this is not the lucky part), but it bounced straight to Kirk Hinrich who nailed a jumper with 3 seconds left to send this one into OT. Belinelli would redeem himself in OT when he hit the game winner with under 10 seconds to go as he was falling down and fading away. It was an impressive shot, and it gave the Bulls the 100-99 win.

Sadly, the Bull's three game win streak would come to an end in their third straight overtime game on Saturday against Memphis. You know it's a defensive battle when a game ends in OT and the score is 85-82. The big story out of this one, aside from another Bull home loss, was that Tom Thibodeau sat Joakim Noah for nearly the entire second half. When asked why, all he would say is that Jo knew why. Whatever happened, it seems to be over, as Jo played full minutes against Los Angeles last night, and it seemed to work, because...

The Bulls beat the Lakers last night at the UC, 95-83. The Lakers may not be a great team overall, but they do have a great offense, and holding them to 83 points is a great accomplishment, not to mention getting home wins for this team seems to be like pulling teeth. This brought the Bulls to 24-16.

For the Record: Blame Canada Edition

Alright, well, let me start this off by saying this could be a good hire. There's no way of knowing until it plays out. But here's why I think Arians was the better choice:

1)

The last time Trestman was in the NFL was 2004. He was the assistant head coach and QB coach of the Dolphins. That team went 4-12.

The last time Bruce Arians was in the NFL was last year. He took a Colts team that earned the #1 draft pick the year before and had just seen their real head coach diagnosed with cancer and led them to the playoffs at 11-5.

2)

The popular thumbs up to Trestman is the QBs he worked with. He worked with Steve Young!... for two years. What happened those two years? They lost to the Packers in the divisional playoffs. Both years. You know who else he QB coached? Jake Plummer! From 1998 to 2000. From 2001-2003 he was the OC for the Raiders! Who made the Super Bowl in 2002! So why only until 2003 then? Surely he got a better job! Well... no. See, the Raiders dropped straight into the shitter, to 4-12, he got canned, did the Dolphins thing for one year, and then went to NC State. NOT TO BE THE HEAD COACH! Nope. He was their offensive coordinator!

A popular argument for Arians is the QBs he worked with. He worked with Ben Roethlisberger! What happened between 2007 and 2011 for the Steelers? They won the Super Bowl in 2008 and went back in 2010. In his last season they went 12-4 but lost in the divisional round. Roethlisberger's numbers spike considerably in 2007, coinciding nicely with Arians' arrival. Roethlisberger continues to be a very good QB. What happened with Trestman's QBs? Well, aside from Steve Young, who had ALREADY WON A SUPER BOWL WHEN TRESTMAN GOT THERE, he was the QB coach AND the OC for Jake Plummer's worst two seasons, his second and third. He was the QB coach and OC for the Raiders with Rich Gannon... and Gannon's numbers stayed exactly the same as they were before he got there, until his third and final season in Oakland when they went 4-12. Then he was the offensive coordinator for NC State. What did NC State do in the two years he was there? 7-5 the first year, 3-9 the second year. The second season NC State did not score more than 24 points in a game. In the first season they did it once. Against Eastern Kentucky.

3)

The big thing today was that Emery chose Trestman because he wanted a disciplinarian for Jay. Someone who would hold Jay accountable. Is Phil Emery out of his GODDAMNED MIND?

A) Why would Jay listen to this CFL guy? He... commands respect? I just outlined Trestman's whole NFL career (leaving out his stints as the Lions QB coach in 1997 and his activities in the 1980s because... well, why pile on?) and it is not impressive. So Jay was being coached by Lovie Smith... who had made as many Super Bowls as a head coach as Trestman has at any position... and who has been an NFL head coach for exactly nine more years than Trestman (who has NEVER been an NFL head coach)... but yeah, Jay will surely listen to him more. Because look what Trestman did! He coached Steve Young for two years after Steve Young was already amazing! He coached Rich Gannon two years after Rich Gannon had already become great... then in his third year drove Rich into the ground! He coached Jake Plummer, who... well, Red, you understand that part. He coached Scott Mitchell! Jesus I'm depressing myself. I need you to realize I am not leaving anything out here except his CFL stint. This guy's entire NFL body of work is incredibly underwhelming.

B) So we're building around Cutler. Fine! Actually, I'm on board with that, because Emery has made his decision and he's sticking to it. That's all I wanted him to do, and it looks like Jay is here for the long haul. So, instead of getting a guy who, just LAST FUCKING YEAR, coached Andrew Luck into the rookie of the year (probably) and the Colts to 11-5... and before that turned Rapelisberger into the QB he is today... we grabbed a guy who has literally never developed a starting QB to be better than he already is. And this is because... I guess Arians wasn't going to yell at Jay? This sounds like the worst idea. This sounds like the absolute worst idea I have ever heard.

Look, I'm not jumping off a bridge here. Yet. But we just passed on the coach of the year in the NFL, a guy who has proven he can develop QBs, a guy who has proven he understands offense in today's NFL... for a guy whose resume looks like this? Because he will "hold Jay accountable"? Alright, nevermind. I'm jumping off the bridge.


This was definitely the bold hire. It’s not a stupid one, but it will definitely either make Phil Emery a genius or an all-time Bears goat. He’s either going to be the bold visionary who took a chance on a brilliant offensive mind, or “dat guy who hired da CFL cooch.”

Personally, I’m okay with this. It’s less about the QBs he’s worked for (he’s had great success and some failures, and that logic can always be dodgy) and more about the fact that he’s successfully adapted his offense pretty much every where he’s gone. He’s run a base West Coast with Gannon, a mobile West Coast with Young, and a spread in Canada. At the very least, he’ll be creative and adaptable, something the Bears just haven’t been on offense.

The Cutler stuff has more to do with Trestman working with Jay as his personal QB coach before the 2006 draft. He’s done that with several QBs lately. His reputation as an offensive mind is well-deserved, and I’m excited to see how his willingness to adapt the west coast offense to a 12 man spread translates into molding a new NFL offense in Chicago.

My concern comes from how well he handles the daily grind of the NFL head coaching job. He’s been an offensive coordinator, so he’s not unfamiliar with the workload and the hours, but it’s still a different scenario to handle it each day of the year. In Canada the practice hours are nowhere near as long, the film sessions are far less grueling…I think he’s capable of doing all of this, but it’s a matter of how quickly he gets up to speed.

My final verdict: not a stupid hire, but we’ll definitely have to simply see how this plays out. Arians would definitely have been the safe pick. Emery sees more potential in Trestman. Let’s see if he’s hanged himself.

Weekend Hoops Update and also Iggins! Eating Crows


This will be unpleasant



- Yeah, so when Kaepernick threw that interception to start the game on Saturday I sent the following text message to Red:

"Oh, Kaepernick is failing? Whoda thunk?"

Then, as if he somehow knew I had pulled an Erik and claimed victory WAY too early, he went bonkers, destroyed Green Bay, and shoved a murder of crows down my throat. So, random 49ers fan who wandered in here weeks ago, I apologize to you and your fan base. Though I still don't think the Niners win the Super Bowl, I will admit that Alex Smith does not beat Green Bay in that game, so my point is invalidated. Switching to Kaepernick was clearly the right call. How dare I ever question Jim Harbaugh, my favorite Bear QB ever (This is not sarcasm, it is disturbingly very true). That is all.

- After the Bulls beat the hell out of the Knicks (the box score says they won by 7, but they were up by more than 20 half way through the fourth quarter), then returned home to AGAIN be beat to hell by a very bad team, this time the Phoenix Suns, the majority of Bulls players were saying their issue was that they get too comfortable at home because they think the UC is going to win them games by itself there, so they get complacent and get their ass kicked. They are missing the obvious here. It isn't the UC that won them games while they were sleepwalking the last two years. It was Derrick... freaking... Rose. Somehow they have all forgotten that Rose goes into Golden Sonic mode whenever he sees his team down by 7+, takes over the game, wakes up his team, and pulls out wins at home even though the team seems less than motivated. The Bulls without Rose don't have the luxury of being able to half-ass anything. If they play to their full capabilities they can play with anyone in the NBA, but that isn't because they have overwhelming talent. Quite the contrary. The current Bulls are loaded with hard workers and coached by an amazing gameplanner. Their strength comes from effort. Without that you get what we saw Saturday night: 79 points against a terrible defense, and an allowed 97 points to a terrible offense. Derrick Rose is so talented that he can lift the Bulls to victory when they slack: without Derrick Rose the Bulls need to realize they can't slack at all.

-I'll digest half a crow for Wisconsin, but I'm reserving full judgment until they play at Indiana on Tuesday and Iowa at Carver on Saturday. The 74-51 win over the Illini was very impressive, but the Illini have been flagging of late, and it's hard to tell how much credence to give this Wisconsin W. The Illini reverted to last year's group on Saturday. Brandon Paul went 1/11 from the field, the Illini were 2/14 from three, and any time that happens they are going to go down hard. Whether Wisconsin really is good or they just caught the Illini on a very Illini night will be determined by how they fare in their next two games. It cannot be reasonably expected of Wisconsin to beat Indiana at Assembly Hall on Tuesday, but keeping the game close will go a long way in maintaining a good public perception. The game at Iowa on Saturday is huge for both squads. If Wisconsin wants to prove they're a contender, they need some B1G road wins, and getting one against the team most likely to take their bubble spot would be great. Iowa grabbed a 20 point win at Northwestern on Saturday and needs to hold their home court to get to the hypothetical 9-9 in conference that will get any B1G team into the NCAA tournament. Added to that is that Fran has owned Wisconsin recently: not only did Iowa sweep them last year, the Hawks also stole Jared Uthoff from them this offseason. That will be a big game.

Lovie, We Hardly Knew Ye (WE WILL DROWN YOU WITH NEW CONTENT)

As the dust settles over the post-Lovie-Smith Chicago landscape, the new coaching situation is still very much in the air. As we said in last week’s For the Record, our pick would be either McCoy or Arians. I’d also be okay with Trestman, who Jimmy Johnson apparently thinks already got the job. How do you know that? Hey, I’m asking you a question. Answer me, thing in the mouth-face.

But despite the fact that they interviewed Mike Singletary (which I’m choosing to believe was only because this city can’t wipe its ass without first asking the opinion of an ’85 Bear instead of the horrifying alternative that they actually might hire Mike Singletary to be their head coach) and a handful of Special Teams guys, including Toub, I think it’s obvious that an offense-minded, decidedly not-Lovie-Smith Chicago coaching staff is on its way in.

Now, despite what Iggins! would have you believe, I was the only one of our merry band whose surety that Lovie would get the axe never wavered. Red called me that Sunday night and explained for like a half hour all the reasons he was certain Lovie was safe, a sentiment that was echoed around the Internet by people who like Lovie Smith. We’ve always been pretty firmly in Lovie’s camp, and I still don’t think he necessarily deserved to get fired, but I understand why he did.

That needlessly long introduction aside, what I wanted to do here was break down a couple of the arguments people had for keeping Lovie around and why, sadly, they weren’t enough to save his job. Because I hate things that are different, the arguments will be in italics and my responses will be in regular ol’ Times.

Friday Hoopyball Recap, 01-11-2013

-The Bulls went 2-1 since last Friday.

First, Friday night, they put on a show, in Miami, and beat the Heat by 7. Big kudos to Carlos Boozer (!?), boy do I hate typing that, who put up 27 and 12. The Heat got dominated inside, which is a great sign for the Bulls. The Heat have been on a slide of their own, but that shouldn't take away from this win. Beating the Heat will eventually pay dividends, especially doing it without Derrick Rose.

Then, Monday night, the Bulls came back home and waxed the Cavaliers, 118-92. Hard to single out a specific performance that really won this game, but Boozer did dominate again. His turn-around jumper has been going in, and when it does he becomes the most dangerous weapon the Bulls have on offense. Beating the Cavs at home should be a given, so no big deal here, but it was good to get to 19-13.

Unfortunately, Wednesday night the Bulls dropped to 19-14 by losing to the Milwaukee Bucks, who apparently have their number in Chicago. Last time, and the only other time these two have played this year, the Bulls went up by 27 and lost. This time the Bulls went up big again in the first, but Brandon Jennings, again, started shooting lights out, and the Bulls went down, 104-96. The comedy of errors that is Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings playing together brings me joy, and it was working exactly as one might think early on. Ellis shot every time he touched the ball, Jennings had to do the same to get his own shots in, and the Bulls just sat and rebounded. Unfortunately, Ellis got into foul trouble, sat down, and Brandon Jennings started to dominate. The Bulls had trouble deciding how to shift a few times down the stretch, which is unforgivable at this point in the season, but the biggest reason they took this loss is Brandon Jennings, When he's on, he's unstoppable. When he's off, the Bucks are awful.

Saturday:

Purdue 61 - #18 Michigan State 84

Purdue couldn't quite capitalize on the momentum they gained from their surprising season-opening win over Illinois. Winning on the road at Sparty is always tough, but the bottom line is that Purdue isn't a great team this year. Bad teams can sneak up on people, and that was surely the case against an Illinois team not yet used to success. MSU may not be contending for a B1G title this year, but they can handle the Boilers at home.

#8 Ohio State 55 - #11 Illinois 74

This was a disaster nearly from the start. I covered it earlier in the week. Suffice it to say, Illinois is pretty good.

Sunday:

Iowa 67 - #2 Michigan 95

Iowa was in control for about 15 minutes of this game. They had the Wolverines out of rhythm, had led the entire first half, and were knocking down open looks. But after that, Michigan asserted itself in a big way. The Hawks clearly aren't up to Michigan's level, but really, there may be 4 other teams in the nation who are.

Wisconsin 47 - Nebraska 41

Covered this already as well. Two mediocre-to-bad teams going at it here.

Northwestern 51 - #9 Minnesota 69

Nevermind about the Tubby Smith crack I made last week. Minnesota is very good, and they don't seem to know it yet, which is great. The game against Indiana tonight will be huge.

Monday:

#5 Indiana 74 - Penn State 51

Nothing to see here.

Tuesday:

#15 Ohio State 74 - Purdue 64

You know, Ohio State may not be as good as once thought. Illinois and Minnesota seem to be the top 10 team OSU was supposed to be.

Wednesday:

Nebraska 47 - #2 Michigan 62

Yup.

#8 Minnesota 84 - #12 Illinois 67

This was in Illinois, by the way. Total Gopher domination. Tubby Smith really has this team working on all cylinders. Trevor Mbakwe coming back is making more sense every day. Don't take this as meaning Illinois isn't as good as they seem, either. Minnesota may just be a top 5 team nationally.

Thursday:

Northwestern 70 - Penn State 54

Yeah.

#22 Michigan State 62 - Iowa 59

Iowa's best player, Roy Devyn Marble, was revealed to be out for this game about an hour before tip. Despite this, Iowa led for the entire game until 8 minutes were left in the second half. They were even up 4 with a minute to go! But a foolish turnover from Mike Gesell doomed them, a final 3 fell short, and the clock ran out on the Hawks again. This game and the 4 point loss at home to Indiana really sting. If those two had just fallen the other way, iowa would be 2-1 with two huge quality wins. Instead, Iowa is 0-3 in the B1G, though they now enter a much easier stretch. Though their next nine games do include trips to Ohio State and Minnesota, the other seven are against Wisconsin twice, Penn State twice, Northwestern twice, and at Purdue. Iowa needs to go 7-2, at the very least, to stay in the bubble conversation, and a win at OSU or Minnesota would certainly help.

Upcoming:

This week the Bulls play four games. Tonight they're at the Knicks, then they're home Saturday to play Phoenix, home Monday for the Hawks, and get back on the road Wednesday to play the Raptors. Hopefully they can go 3-1 there and maybe we hear more good Rose news? The B1G slate is highlighted by #8 Minnesota at #5 Indiana tomorrow, #12 Illinois at Wisconsin tomorrow, #2 Michigan at #15 OSU on Sunday, and #2 Michigan at #8 Minnesota on Thursday. See you back here in a week!

For the Record: Man We Hate The Life of Pi Edition

So, nobody gets into the baseball HoF. One of a myriad reasons that I hate baseball, I swear that article will happen eventually, is the old, meathead curmudgeons that vote for their stuff. Ron Santo couldn't get in alive. But dead? GET THAT CORPSE IN HERE. I hate these people. And now they won't put in Barry Bonds because he did roids, or Clemens because he did roids. What do y'all think of it? I'll save my full opinion because I want to hear what the both of you think first.


You cheated. Yes, you could argue that it's negated by the fact that everyone else was cheating, too, but you still cheated. The "steroid era" thing just encourages more people to do it.

Barry Bonds is a great hitter, there can be no doubt there. He still hit the baseball better than anyone else who was using steroids at the time. But he cheated. If Pete Rose can't get in for gambling on his own team to win, you should not be able to get in despite actual cheating.


The Pete Rose thing is a different conversation, but suffice it to say I think he needs to be in the Hall. I have two streams of thought here:

1) I don't think steroids should be illegal. Much as I don't think you deserve to be babied or that the rules of football need to be changed just because you could get concussions, I don't think steroids are cheating. Everyone who does them knows the risks. You get ragey, your testes shrink, you get gross acne, potentially you grow boobs, and you shorten your life. If you do them you accept this. These guys are sacrificing a lot to get even a tiny edge. I just don't have an issue with that. If you're willing to accept the consequences, more power to you. HOWEVAH...

2) It is against the rules. Whether steroids should be illegal or not, it is clearly written down that you can't do them. So you cheated, dick, and you're a bad person for cheating. Rules suck sometimes, but if there were no rules life would be BS. Ever play a board game "just for fun"? It sucks! Because there's no point. Same here. So I understand why someone might not vote for them.

Of course, on the other hand, baseball has punishments in place for this type of deal. 50 games-150 games-Go find a new job. At the time, they did not have those kinds of punishments in place. And there is no steroid punishment that says CAN'T BE IN THE HALL OF FAME. So, I feel like you have to vote on everyone eligible and vote for the best guys. Bonds is eligible. Clemens is eligible. Sosa is eligible. If you can tell yourself they were worse than Craig Biggio, vote for Biggio. But if you can't you have to vote for them.


I think he should, too, but the rules are the rules and have to be enforced equally.
I don't think that last bit is entirely fair. If you don't think anybody that year is worthy of being down the hall from Ernie Banks, you shouldn't have to vote in a subpar candidate while you're there just because voting was open. The HoF thing isn't about it being a rule that you can't get in if you did steroids. It's that you didn't turn in a Hall of Fame performance, your PEDs did. Sure, a guy like Barry Bonds probably has the natural talent to get there with slightly less impressive numbers, but we'll never know because that's not what happened. You can't vote based on what probably would have happened had he not been using for the better part of his career

Mid-Week Basketball Thoughts

-Is the East as bad as we all think it is? The first third of the season was marred with contenders hitting .500 or below and the freaking Knicks easily becoming the #2 team in the conference. Couple that with the West housing the Thunder, Spurs, Clippers, the surprising Warriors, and the fiesty Grizzlies... and the East went right back to where it was three years ago. But lately the East has been having a bit of a resurgence. The Bulls and Pacers have settled into life without their stars (Rose and Danny Granger) and now sit at 19-13 and 21-14 respectively, with both of them notching wins over the Heat this week. Atlanta and Brooklyn are falling back to where they should be after hot starts, and Boston is on a 3 game win streak. Could the East have simply gotten off to a poor start because three of the five best teams in the conference had to get used to a very different life (the Celtics lost Ray Allen)?

-Derrick Rose is taking contact in practice now. For other players, that normally means their return will come within two weeks. For Rose? That's highly doubtful. The organization saw what happens when you push a guy who plays like Rose back from injury too quickly, and it's what got them into this mess. Look for the Bulls to give him several weeks of extra practice before he steps onto the court, and when he does come back, don't expect him to play anything over 25 minutes per game for a while. The Bulls have won 3 in a row and 4 of 5, so there's no reason to rush the former MVP into anything. The All-Star game is on February 17. The Bull's first game after is February 19 at New Orleans, but the first home game back is February 21... against the Heat. That would give Derrick 6 weeks of contact practice to heal, maybe get back to regular practice in two to three weeks, and make his debut, at home, to a raucous crowd, against the hated Miami Heat. Sounds perfect to me.

-Illinois had one hell of a bounce-back game against OSU on Saturday. After taking a difficult to swallow loss against Purdue, Brandon Paul continued his high efficiency play, shooting 6/12 from the field, scoring 19 points, and grabbing 7 rebounds, eventually throttling the Buckeyes 74-55. The humorous thing to take away from this game is that Illinois forced OSU to become Illinois from last year. They took away every scoring option OSU had but DeShaun Thomas, and he was more than happy to take 21 shots on the day and score 24 points (that's some bad efficiency). Aaron Craft scored 11, but no other OSU player had more than 8. Groce has really made the most of what he has, and Brandon Paul has emerged as a premier player in the B1G. I would expect a lot of hype for him as a late first rounder in the draft. He has a smooth stroke, takes great shots, and even has some dribble-drive moves. I'm sure the Bulls would love someone like him to fall into their lap.

-One other interesting B1G note, Wisconsin continues to look extremely unimpressive. After surviving mighty Penn State, Wisconsin managed to beat Nebraska 47-41 on Sunday. Before you defend the Badgers by saying they're a defensive team anyway, remember that Nebraska is a mighty 320th in points per game this year... and that was against their weak non-conference schedule. Wisconsin has played 4 good teams. They lost all four games. In those four they scored over 56 points ONE TIME, losing 84-74 to Creighton. The first time Creighton gave up less than 70 points to a quality team this year was literally Saturday, against Indiana State, and they scored 66. Creighton beats you with offense, not defense. Wisconsin will be tested in the B1G in the next couple weeks with games at home against Illinois, at Indiana, at Iowa, home for MSU, home for Minnesota, at OSU, at Illinois... the beat goes on. If they get lucky, do they get one win out of those? Two? Joe Lunardi has this team in the tourney right now... let's see how he feels in two weeks.

Welcome to Basketball Season, Friday Hoopyball Recaps

Yes, friends, the Bears have been eliminated. Despite the "excitement" of a head coach search and draft prep, that really leaves us with very little to write about concerning the Bears. It also means the only sport involving things related to Chicago going on is basketball, which is generally my wheelhouse. Erik should have plenty of Chicago sports writer cannon fodder concerning this head coach thing, Red will probably break down the year and rosters in preparation for the draft. And I will be taking care of B1G and Bulls hoops. Need a distraction for the eight months between now and the first Bears game of the 13-14 season? ENJOY.

Since last Friday the Bulls have had a strange three games. They started it off on Saturday by beating the Wizards 87-77 in Chicago, which is okay? Of course, the Wizards don't have John Wall, are 4-24, and were lead in scoring by rookie Bradley Beal, who scored 14 points. We'll take it, I guess.

Of course, they followed that performance up by scoring 81 points against the Bobcats, at home, and losing by 10. The Bobcats are a mighty 8-23 and came into Chicago on Monday with an 18 game losing streak. Not the best of days for the Bulls, and that's a loss we should all pretend didn't happen (especially given that the Bulls have a draft pick of the 'cats that is getting closer and closer to being unprotected). Bob-what? The Bulls played who? I think you are mistaken, ser.

They did follow that embarrassment with a 2 point win over the Magic, 96-94, in Orlando on Wednesday. Jameer Nelson dropped 32 points, somehow, but the Bulls still pulled it out, thanks mostly to 31 points and 11 boards from Carlos Boozer. You may have noticed I did not talk about me being personally thankful to Carlos. Me posting his stat line might be the most pleasant thing I have to say about Carlos. Ever. YOU ARE 6'11", CARLOS. STOP SHOOTING FADE-AWAYS GAHHHHH.

The Bulls are currently 17-13 and would be the #5 seed in the East if the season ended today. The relative success of this Bulls team without its best player says a lot about the state of the Eastern Conference. That the Knicks have managed to get to 22-10 with an offense based entirely around shooting threes, Carmelo Anthony, and ancient men perhaps born during the warring states era is another good example to point to. The good news is one Mr. Rose traveled with the team to Orlando and will also be present tonight at the Heat. The timetable for his return seems to be the All-Star break, and if he can return then, get 40% of a season under his belt, and get back into form... well, who knows. But as it stands, this team is still good enough to make the playoffs without Rose.

B1G play also opened this week on Monday. I'm a Hawkeye, Red used to be an Illini fan, but like most Illini fans his interest wanes with how good the Illini are. Now Red is, probably, a Northern Iowa fan. Erik went to Bradley, which would make him a Missouri Valley fan if he knew what basketball was. So, actually, I might have to start recapping the week in the MVC. GO PANTHERS?!

Monday:

#5 Indiana 69 - Iowa 65

I went into this game hoping the Hawks would keep it close, and boy did they. Strangely, though, they didn't really play very well. They went 3/17 from 3, shot 33% from the floor, Roy Devyn Marble (Iowa's best player, arguably) shot a ridiculous 1/14, they got outrebounded by 9... and lost by four with a chance to tie the game with a three with 3 seconds left. Maybe Indiana had an off night too, maybe Iowa is pretty good. Who the hell knows. But one thing is for certain: if Iowa wants in the tourney this year, they should probably stop letting opposing point guards drive directly at the basket for easy layups. There were a couple instances where Victor Oladipo charged, in a straight line, from the three point line to the hoop, while all five Iowa defenders did the MC Hammer "U Can't Touch This" dance. It was strange, and I question the strategical soundeness of the "Hammertime" defense.

#18 Michigan State 63 - #9 Minnesota 76

Michigan State is always a dangerous out, but aside from an early season win over Kansas they haven't been very impressive. They had a five point lead with about 8:30 to go but collapsed in epic fashion, eventually taking a 13 point loss. The Hollins' and Trevor Mbakwe, predictably, were the biggest parts of the comeback. Minnesota is now in the top 10. Watch for Tubby Smith's team to immediately lose, at home, to a beat-up Northwestern team. Because he is Tubby Smith.

Wednesday

Nebraska 44 - #8 Ohio State 70

Ever seen Nebraska play basketball? This was probably a good effort from them. MOVING ON.

#11 Illinois 61 - Purdue 68

Illinois was probably the biggest surprise of the non-conference season. They have a new head coach, lost Meyers Leonard, ad their best player shoots more than Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings COMBINED. But Brandon Paul has been hitting everything, and that's led to wins over Butler, Auburn, Georgia Tech, and at Gonzaga. Very impressive. It should have been predictable, then, that the Illini would lose to 6-6 Purdue in their B1G opener. Brandon Paul had a pretty good game, and it's rare you want a guy like that to shoot MORE, but when he shoots 5/10 from the floor and 4/7 from the field... maybe he should have taken a few more shots.

Thursday

#2 Michigan 94 - Northwestern 66

Not much to say here. NW is missing three of its best players, Michigan has Trey Burke and could win a national title. Sorry, smart kids.

Penn State 51 - Wisconsin 60

Wisconsin has lost all of their difficult games so far this year, lost Jared Uthoff to Iowa this offseason, and their head coach lost a lot of respect in the process. I'm predicting a bad year for the Badgers. This game didn't do much to assuage that fear. Writing about Penn State basketball is like writing about Nebraska basketball. It's just a waste of time.

This Week

The Bulls get the Heat in Miami tonight, the Cavs on Monday, and the Bucks on Wednesday. Hopefully they'll get two wins out of that. B1G highlight games include #8 OSU at #11 Illinois on Saturday, #9 Minnesota at #11 Illinois on Wednesday, and #18 MSU at Iowa on Thursday. Enjoy the hoops, see you back here on Friday!

For the Record: Lovie Sads and What's Next Edition

Erik, our newest esteemed colleague, is represented by mashed potatoes. HE KNOWS WHY.






This season was certainly a disappointment. Life as a Bears fan is full of disappointment…but this one was unique. They’ve never raised hopes so high and then crushed them in such a long, methodical fashion. There was no easy, quick collapse like last year, when we all could say “well, if they had Jay…” This year they had everything they should have needed. At some point they just stopped playing good football, nearly across the board. In those situations, fair or not, the blame has to fall on the only thing that connects all of those players. Lovie paid the price. Even if it wasn’t his fault, even those of us who’ve always been in his corner conceded that there was little to be said in his defense. The Bears were patient. They gave him four chances at getting the offensive coordinator right. They threw QBs and players under the bus to protect him. They threw Jerry Angelo in front of the train to protect him…and in the end, he was the last man standing. You can’t win every power struggle and then expect to avoid the blame when everyone else you could have blamed is gone.

I will miss Lovie Smith. You can never truly tell with such things, but I believe he was a good man. He brought respectability back to this franchise. I’ve been frustrated, but rarely embarrassed, to call myself a Bears fan during his tenure. His philosophy works, but things never came together the way they needed to. Such things happen. Cowher took 14 years to win his Superbowl with the same formula. Such patience is hard to find.

He certainly had his issues. His devotion to his philosophy alternately strengthened and crippled him. It allowed his team to consistently limit big plays and get big takeaways…but kept him from recognizing when the four man rush was failing, when the blitz was necessary…when that 20 yard catch and sprint by the RB was eventually going to be a big f*&king deal. His greatest failure was that he knew nothing of offense, and trusted it to the wrong people. That cost him his job, and no one can say they lacked the justification needed to do so.

So goodbye, Lovie. We like you, we respect you, we thank you, we wish you well, but more importantly, we’re ready to move on.


That last thing there is the most surprising thing to me. Like you said, I don't think any of the three of us has any contempt for Lovie. He fielded good teams, epsecially great defenses and special teams units. But the offenses killed him. Cutler hasn't panned out over his first 4 years, flailing between awfulness and greatness. His offensive coordinators have been a marching band of fail. Turner was too plain, Martz was too crazy and had to be neutered, Tice was running two offenses at once and wasn't great at either of them.

But yeah, even though I don't have an issue with Lovie, it was time. His consistent okayness had become unacceptable. Eventually strides forward need to be made, and Lovie hadn't made any noticeable strides in many years. Time to cut the cord.

I'm sad to see him go, because he's probably the second-best coach in Bear history, but this team should be competing for Super Bowls, not missing the playoffs. Like you said, everyone else who could have been fired has been fired. He's the only one left.


What were we talking about? I was going to do an alternate, gloating piece in which I examine each of Red's arguments in favor of Lovie staying and why they didn't save his job. I'll save my sad recollection for that.


Well, that’s only fair.

It’s definitely going to be an offensive minded head coach next. If it’s McCoy I think the likelihood that they give Cutler one more year goes up. He has Denver ties, has worked with Marshall in the past, was able to adjust his playbook for both Tebow and Peyton Manning, so he seems like a guy they’d hire to give one last crack at sparking the Cutler light bulb. If he fails, you don’t blame him and you let him pick the new guy.

Why the 49ers won't get to the Super Bowl

An interesting comment got me to writing a rather long response, so instead of posting it there, I though "Why not just make a post?", and so here it is: the reason the 49ers are morons for supplanting Alex Smith when they did and also why Matt Forte is a top 5 RB.

Let me be abundantly clear here: the comment I made about the 49ers had very little to do with Kaepernick's potential as an NFL QB, or even Kaepernick at all. I personally don't think he'll be a good NFL starter, but I've been wrong enough to know it is completely possible. What I was really talking about when I said the 49ers "never should have committed to" Kaepernick was their timing. They replaced Alex Smith in game 10 of the regular season. There are a few ways a first-time starting QB can go in his first full year, and unless you're Cam Newton or Andrew Luck (Who is simply having too strange of a year statistically to categorize) you will have one of a few kinds of years. For Kaepernick, he started hot then came back to Earth a bit against St. Louis and Seattle. That means he is taking one of two paths:

Up-Down-Up: The QB will do surprisingly well initially (this is probably because he brings something extra to the table, like speed, or because his coach is gameplanning him so as to hide his weaknesses... think Roethlisberger's first year) then fall on his ass once teams have film on him. Finally, due to overwhelming talent or good strategy, the QB will rise again, adjust to the adjustment, and finish strong, capping a good rookie year. This is RG3.
Up-Down: The same as above, but the initial defensive adjustment is too much for the QB, it exposes his inherent flaws, the QB cannot adjust, and the QB becomes a career backup. Ahem, Rex Grossman.

The big issue here is that Kaepernick will almost assuredly struggle at the exact wrong time. His seventh game will be against Arizona, his eighth a playoff game. For perspective, RG3 was great for four games, then did poorly for four of his next five games. Cam Newton did great for 4 games then struggled in six of his next seven before righting the ship. Rex Grossman was dynamite for 4 of his first 5 games before sputtering and crashing into oblivion. Kaepernick has been good or great in 4 of his first 5 games... and now he got beat up by Seattle. If the trend holds? He'll hit his struggle section right when the 49ers need him most. So, to reiterate, I don't disagree that Alex Smith is not a long-term answer. I disagree with the timing of his benching.

Moving on to Forte. I agree Arian, Purple Jesus, and Ray Rice are all better than Forte. Jamaal Charles is great, but he has a tendency to disappear from games occasionally and is a complete non-factor in the passing game. Marshawn Lynch has had a great run recently, so he might be #4. Who else is there to challenge Forte? Lesean McCoy just up and dsappeared this year, Reggie Bush was wildly inconsistent, Frank Gore is nearly as beat up as Michael Turner... just because Forte doesn't get used to his full potential doesn't mean he is worth less. His YPC are right there with everyone else I've mentioned and he is one of the three best pass catching RBs in the NFL (Sproles and Ray Rice). Even if we put JC ahead of him he is still #6. Seems trite to argue him being a top 5 RB on that kind of technicality.

This Sunday and its Meaning

This is going to be the biggest Sunday of football in recent Bear history. It's true: they went to a Super Bowl not long ago. And even more recently the Bears played the Packers in an NFC title game. But it's hard to say that either of those two games had quite the impact this weekend will have. Rex Grossman wasn't winning a Super Bowl. The Packer game only served to humiliate the Bears for letting the Packers fall ass-backwards into the playoffs. But this Sunday could change the entire trajectory of an organization that has largely looked exactly the same for eight to nine years.

If the Bears win and the Vikings lose (Thank God Green Bay actually has something to play for), the Bears get a weakened 49er team with a quarterback they never should have committed to. If the Bears win that game, Lovie is safe and the Cutler-Smith experiment will continue.

But let's be honest with ourselves, Bear fans. I probably don't even have to tell you that: we're Chicago sports fans! We're oftentimes a bit TOO pessimistic about what is going to happen to our sports teams. And really, pessimism is simply realism here. The reasoned observer will say that the Bears have a good chance of making the playoffs and getting blown to pieces by the 49ers. There's a good chance Lovie gets fired even if he DOES get to 10-6 and the playoffs in that case. The Bear fan in all of us, of course, is pretty damn sure they'll lose to Detroit this weekend while we also watch Minnesota lose by 30.

And in that scenario, well, everything changes. The head coach we've known since 2004 will be fired, Mike Tice will be gone, Marinelli too (mostly because new HCs want their own coordinators). Most likely so will the 4-3 Cover 2, Brian Urlacher, Devin Hester, and maybe even Jay Cutler. The entire face of this organization will change with that loss. And consider this: the Bears will have one of the best defenses in the league, two Pro Bowl starting corners, a potentially Hall of Fame linebacker (Briggs), a Hall of Fame DE, Henry Melton, the second or third best WR in the game, a top 5 RB, and a team that went 9-7. That sounds like a damn good job opportunity to me.

The coaching options are numerous, but I guarantee the top 2 names on the Bear's list will be Sean Payton and Rex Ryan (Yes, Rex Ryan just got run out of New York. But he has strong Bear ties, he made it to two AFC championship games with defense alone, and he has a very "Bear" mentality. Just enough reason for the Bear organization to put him at the top of a small list, whether the fans agree with it or not.). Rex represents a slightly more conservative approach to change. The defense will become a 3-4, which is entirely foreign to Bear fans, but the Bears actually have the pieces to run that defense right now with very little transition. Shea would be a great 3-4 OLB, Henry Melton is exactly what you want for the middle of your 3-4 line, and Peppers will be great doing anything. The non-change here would be the offense. Rex likes running the ball and occasionally slinging shit deep. Sound like a Cutler offense to you? Yeah. Rex almost fits too perfectly.

But before the Bears call him, they will certainly call the most coveted HC on the open market, Sean Payton. Through a very strange loophole, the Saint HC got released from his contract in part because of the year-long suspension from bounty-gate. I personally believe he's just going to leverage the Cowboy's and Bear's interest against the Saints in order to get a bigger deal, but what if he doesn't? The Bears job is by far the best of the three. It'll give Payton a defense for the first time in his career, one of the best receivers in the game, and a gun-slinging QB who he can either trade for someone he covets or give a one year tryout. Of course, Payton would change the defense AND the offense, and the last time the Bears ran something looking like a spread... well, Cutler still has bruises.

The league is changing. Will the Bears change with it? This team has never been anything but defense-first, run the ball, rinse, repeat, and the one season we tried becoming pass-centric Jay Cutler almost died at the hands of Mike Martz. The last few seasons Lovie has been awkwardly hiring new OCs, trying to turn this offense into something new and, well, good. But his results have been mediocre at best, and occasionally painful and even dangerous. It is, and I say this with love in my heart for Lovie, very clear he has no idea what to do on offense in today's NFL. But one thing is clear; he thinks he needs to change. This is why, if Lovie goes, the Bears will almost assuredly grab a coach that will change the very fabric of the team. I'm not here to argue whether changing is good or not. But the Bears may look at the list of Super Bowl champs and realize the last time a team won with their current mentality was 2003. And that was when the Bucs beat the Raiders in possibly the worst Super Bowl ever.

It is very rare that you get to watch something understanding the full weight and context of the situation you are seeing. Nobody knew the Bulls would trip and fall into the #1 pick to get D. Rose. Nobody knew Bartman was coming. Make no mistake. This Sunday means more to the Bear's organization than either of those two events. It could mean changing the entire identity of a team that has remained constant for so long. So tune in this Sunday and watch as a man fights for his job, and maybe more importantly, a team decides its trajectory for the next ten years.

University of Cincinnati Surprised to Find Itself In Classic Horror Movie Situation

CINCINNATI, OHIO (AP) The University of Cincinnati released a statement today, on behalf of its leadership and basketball program, pleading for help from other institutions, or at least some explanation as to their current, rather surreal circumstances.

"Is anybody else seeing this?!" reads the statement, "We keep going out the door of Conference USA, but... jesus it just leads right back inside! How is this possible?!"

Cincinnati left C-USA in 2005 for the Big East, a league with BCS ties and a proud basketball tradition.

"Just a few months back we were waking up to say Hi to Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers to throw the ol' pigskin around... then they were just gone! I mean, we thought it was strange, but then it got even weirder!"

"One day a week ago we were playing some NBA 2K13 with Villanova, then... jesus they just disappeared! We looked all over for them, but... they were gone! When we went to tell Georgetown, well, they were gone too! So was St. John's! God almost everyone was gone!"

But the worst was yet to come, apparently, as the letter's tone takes a turn for the desperate and clearly delusional.

"Then we noticed even our old buddies from C-USA, Marquette, were gone. That's when we noticed it... the Big East sign above the door... it was all beat up from what the ACC did to it when they came by a while back... but now it looked strange... warped...

it looked like it said C-USA."

Cincinnati is probably confused because the Big East has recently lost all but one of its founding members, leaving the conference with UConn, Cincinnati, and several former members of C-USA.

The letter continues, "We turned from the sign, frightened... and standing there was Tulane. Jesus it was TULANE. We thought we got away from them forever! When Louisville, Marquette, and us got out of that hellhole in '05 we thought it was over! But there it was! So we ran.

We ran for the door, through the foyer... and there they were. Houston! SMU! UCF! Memphis! Oh God they were all there. So we ran out the front door... and came right back in the back door."

The letter trails off from there, devolving into random pleas for help; "Found UConn. Can't escape. We keep trying to leave through the side door into the ACC house... but it's no use. We talked about it, and we think this is our hell. We keep reaching for an ACC hand to save us... but it never comes. Have to sign off now. Boise State made lasagna. I hear Navy will be here soon. Someone says maybe UMass too. God help us. We'll take any help. Even the Big 12! GOD SAVE US SOMEBODY PLEASE AGHHHHH!!!"

The letter devolves into random scribbling and pictures of centaurs after that. When asked for comment, all the ACC would say is "Meh" and "Once the B1G takes North Carolina and Virginia we'll probably take em both. I mean, I guess."

-AP

The Bear's Playoff Chances

Well, I wanted to use this morning to stare at my dominant fantasy football win over Erik (and forget that my wife put up back to back weeks of 149+ points to beat me in a different league) but Red had to get all moody like he does, so I figured I should temper his and Fro Dog's enthusiasm over a Bear loss to Green Bay. Yeah, we looked awful. And yes, once more the defense gave up a respectable number of points to a great offense and Cutler screwed it up. ON THE OTHER HAND, the Bears are still 8-6 and have, with the 'skins, the easiest remaining two games on their schedule. Let's break down the NFC playoff hopefuls in order of playoff likelihood:

Washington Redskins
Remaining Games: @Philadelphia, vs.Dallas

So yeah, the Redskins pulled a Kirk Cousins out of their ass and beat Cleveland in Cleveland to nearly secure the NFC East. All they have to do is beat Philly (easy) and beat Dallas, a game they play at home. The only thing stopping them from hitting 10-6 and winning the East is the health of RG3, who is said to be recovering very nicely and on track to start at Philadelphia. So expect Washington to take the NFC East.

Chicago Bears
Remaining Games: @Arizona, @Detroit

Yes, the Bears are next in line in order of ease of schedule for getting to 10-6 and a playoff spot. Remember that as far back as 5 weeks ago we were anticipating a loss to the Packers but two wins at these two teams and a playoff birth. Well, now it's crunch time. Neither of these teams should be able to beat the Bears. One loss here will mean Lovie's job and potentially Cutler's as well (Emery has proven to be more willing to actually do things. Don't be surprised, if the Bears miss the playoffs, if he tries to throw Cutler to a team in position to draft Geno Smith or Matt Barkley.). All that said, it's pretty likely the Bears win out, go 10-6, and make the playoffs. That's because...

New York Giants
Remaining Games: @Baltimore, vs. Philadelphia

The Giants just got destroyed by Atlanta, so kudos to the Falcons for hitting on all cylinders right when they need to. The Giants are, of course, the Giants, so don't count them out here, but I'd expect a loss at Baltimore and a win at home vs. Philly to put them at 9-7. They might still make the playoffs though, because the Bears will lose the conference record tiebreaker if they finish tied with New York. In other words, Bear fans, Eli Manning is right there, and, wait, how did you get a baseball bat in your hand? No, don't do that!... okay maybe just his legs...

Dallas Cowboys
Remaining Games: vs.New Orleans, @Washington

That looks like 8-8 to me. Anybody see what Brees did to Tampa last week? Not only that, the Saints-Cowboys game is like the Sean Payton bowl, and I'm sure Drew has something to say about where his coach should end up. @Washington to end the year doesn't exactly inspire much confidence either. I can't imagine a scenario in which this team gets into the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings
Remaining Games: @Houston, vs.Green Bay

That ALSO looks like 8-8 to me. The Texans need one more win to clinch home field throughout, so they'll be playing this game. The Packers will also have a shot, most likely, at a first round bye in week 17 (not to mention a shot at putting Minnesota down for good). The Vikings just don't have the firepower to take on either of these teams.

In Summary:
Considering one of those NFC East teams has to take the division, the Bears are basically facing down the Giants. Though that be a frightening proposition, all the Bears need is for Baltimore to take care of business this upcoming week and to win out against Arizona and Detroit. The tiebreaker goes to New York, yes, so the Giants or Redskins will need to lose a game. But I still think this team will fall into the #6 seed.

Packers 21, Bears 13- With a Whimper

The collapse is more or less complete. The Bears could win their last two and get some help and still make the playoffs, but that seems incredibly unlikely. It doesn't matter anyways. This is not a good football team. It's hard to believe it ever was. They were failures in every possible phase today, and they let the division title that was in their hands for half a season go to Green Bay on their home turf.

There will be hard decisions in the future. The end of this season has gone about as badly as you could have ever imagined for the two individuals who have the most control over the team's fate: Jay Cutler and Lovie Smith.

I don't want to say goodbye to either of them, myself. The sinking feeling in my stomach tells me this franchise would be no closer to a title without them than it is with them, but there's also little that can be said to defend either one of them right now. There are plenty of excuses. There always are in a team sport where so many variables play into wins and losses, but the blame for this collapse will fall on the shoulders of these two, and it'll be truly interesting to see whether the axe will come out, and where it will land.

I don't much have the heart for a breakdown, frankly. The only good I saw was in the pass rush early on, and a run game that reappeared for just a few moments. After that it was all bad. The officiating was undeniably bad, but the Bears have no one to blame but themselves for being incapable of scoring points against any defense with a pulse. That Green Bay Packers squad that carried away the division championship today is clearly the worst unit that Rodgers has led since his first year as a starter, and the Bears weren't even close to them in either game. Think about that. Or don't. I won't blame you.

I haven't got the faintest idea where everything will be once the dust settles. I can only assume that I'll be as unhappy as I am right now.

Vikings 21, Bears 14: There Goes the Neighborhood

As SKO was actually at the game, he’s asked me to step in and do the recap today. I was hoping it would be a good game. As you all saw, I was very very wrong. The Bears fall to 8-5, still leading the wild card race, but it was not an encouraging game.

Seahawks 23, Bears 17: Take the Points You Jackass

I'm a big defender of Lovie Smith. Have been for years. Very little of the stuff he gets blamed for is actually his fault, but this game....oh this game, Lovie f*&ked up royally. You do not go for it in field goal range (TO DETERMINE A TWO SCORE GAME, MIND YOU) on 4th down in the first fucking quarter. You do not pucker up and play prevent offense AND defense with a four point lead against a scrambling QB. You do not continually play two deep safety when your team CANNOT stop a running QB or the runningback. They were f&king running goddamn stunts to collapse the middle against a QB who WANTS to get outside the pocket! HE'S A F*&KING MIDGET ROOKIE FOR F*&K'S SAKE.

Sorry, that one's on Lovie. Tice called a brilliant game up till they got the 14-10 lead and then he puckered. The defense puckered all game long. It was obvious the front four wasn't getting any penetration and Lovie/Marinelli didn't dial up anything extra, and they continually gave Wilson the edge as though Urlacher could run him down like he would have seven years ago. Just pathetic.

The Packers now move back into first place at 8-4, with the head to head tiebreaker, and I don't see the New York Giants coming along to knock them back down. You had a rookie QB at his own 1 yard line at home in December, and you couldn't make a fucking play. There's very little reason to think this team's going to be able to contain Kaepernick, Wilson, RGIII, or Rodgers at this point. This was a costly one, folks, far more than the Texans or 49ers games. Utterly pathetic.

The Good:

Brandon Marshall: If it weren't for him this game would've been over before it started. He kept the chains moving, came up with the miracle ball to send it to overtime, and was generally the only receiver who did more damage against the Seahawks than the Bears.

Jay Cutler: He was utterly amazing today against one of the NFL's best pass defenses, and he couldn't find anyone other than Marshall to help him out. Earl Bennett dropped what may have been the best throw of Jay's career, and the game went away from them after that.

The Offensive Line: Cutler was untouched all game long, and they eventually got the run game going late. Terrible to see an effort like this wasted.

The Bad:

Lovie Smith: You do not pass on a double-digit lead at home over one of the NFL's best defenses. YOU DON'T DO IT. F*&KING FUCK, LOVIE. I just can't add anything more. I realize that there were numerous opportunities afterward, and that nothing in the first quarter "loses" a game, but you don't take points off the board. It's that simple. If you're at the 34 yard line and go for it, you're showing faith in both your offense and your defense. If you're already in chip shot range, you're just letting fucking emotion cloud your judgement.

Brian Urlacher: He was old, slow, and exposed the entire fourth quarter. I hate to say it, but Cam Newton, Kaepernick, and now Wilson should have it drilled into their heads by now that the "don't worry, Brian will run them down" approach to mobile QBs needs to go.

Earl Bennett: I'm aware that he had a TD and it sucks that he left with a concussion, but you can't drop that ball. Inexcusable. Absolutely pathetic that no one outside of Brandon Marshall can step up. This entire receiving corps has regressed from last year outside of Marshall, and they were shitty to begin with.

That's it for now. Another one where the meatballs can have their day, because every overblown, overrated meatball explanation for Lovie Smith being a bad head coach showed up today, and while it doesn't define a career, it fucked his team hard today.