I try not to get very preachy or too dramatic about football on this blog. Despite my gameday rages I know football matters so little in the real world. This week was a terrible reminder of that, with the off-field controversies making it hard to defend watching an organization as seemingly broken as the NFL. No game makes up for that. As a Bears fan this week was brutal for less serious reasons, as the Buffalo loss had just about everyone off the bandwagon, shitting on Trestman, Emery, Cutler, Tucker, and whoever else you wanted to blame. I saw Jay called a $54 million mistake. Steve Rosenbloom wrote that the season was already over. No one thought the Bears could win tonight, then the game started like it was written by a demon haunting all of our worst nightmares. It was hard not to think the worst of everything.
Then they won. They won the f&*king game. They did it legitimately, too. Yes, the 49ers had opportunities to put the game away in the first half. Certainly there were penalties aplenty, but you know what? Most of them were earned on both sides. Over-officiating sucks, but when they're technically the right calls, what can you do? And the Bears got screwed by a blown replay. They had their fair share of mistakes, but you know why San Fran didn't "deserve to win"? They got stopped. A lot. By a defense that was sick and tired of having the entire world shit on them. They dialed up pressure. They got sacks, they forced turnovers. None of those were flukes or gimmes. Kyle Fuller flashed athleticism. Chris Conte made the best play of his career, and it ain't even close. The run defense grinded it out, refusing to let them pop the big one. They held, and then the offense found it's way, and then they won the f*&king game. And that's why we watch. Through all of the negativity, the anxiety, the constant reminders of past letdowns, the never-ending fear, sometimes it pays off. Sometimes they do the impossible. Sometimes they win, and it has rarely felt better than it does right now.
Showing posts with label Phil Emery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phil Emery. Show all posts
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery
They often say the NFL is a copycat league. Sometimes this is an infuriating development, like when Mike Martz inexplicably tries to run the wildcat with Devin Hester because the Dolphins manage to beat the Patriots with it one time.
Other times, it just makes sense, like the proliferation of the West Coast Offense or the number of teams that have started to use the spread or run most of their offense out of the shotgun because it suits the abilities of their quarterbacks.
In the Bears case, Phil Emery has very clearly had two franchises that he's focused on emulating the last two seasons. The Bears offense, while original any many ways thanks to Trestman's sometimes unorthodox approach, shares many broad similarities and an over-arching philosophy with the vastly successful Saints attack, thanks to Trestman's close relationship with Sean Payton and his hire of Aaron Kromer as offensive coordinator. Obviously this approach has been successful, with the Bears actually out-scoring their de facto mentors this past year. Thanks to the recent moves to lock up Jay Cutler, Matt Slauson, and now Brandon Marshall, they should be able to compete at that level for at least a few more years.
This year Phil Emery has very obviously decided to model the defense after the Seahawks. This only makes sense, since the Seahawks are clearly the best defense in the NFL, but it's not exactly surprising that any number of teams are hoping to emulate what Pete Carroll and John Schneider built in the northwest.
Unlike many failed imitations in NFL history, however, the Bears may be able to make this defensive conversion work. While it's unlikely the defensive makeover will result in the Bears defense outpacing their role models like the Bears offense did, it's worth examining how Emery has attempted to copy the Seahawks approach.
1) Big corners: Charles Tillman, Kyle Fuller, and Tim Jennings are not quite the size of Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner, but Tillman and Fuller are both bigger corners, and all three are sure tacklers capable of squaring up offensive players and securing the edge without help. It's worth remembering that just a year before the disaster of 2013, Tillman and Jennings were the starting corners in the Pro Bowl. While they're undoubtedly unlikely to repeat that performance this year, there's no reason to think a healthy Tillman and Jennings can't give the Bears the flexibility they need to play the Cover 1 and Cover 3 coverages that Seattle likes to use most and allow the defense to be successful.
2)A defensive line of interchangeable parts: last year the Seahawks had one pure edge rusher in Cliff Avril. Avril was a liability against the run and pretty much always has been, but the Seahawks had enough versatile pieces around him to allow him to do what he does best.
Enter Jared Allen for the Bears. Allen was never even close to being as good of a run defender as he was a pass-rusher, and to expect him to improve in that department as a Bear would be fool-hardy, but he can still be a pass-rush specialist for a team that won't ask him to do much more than that.
Outside of Avril, the Seahawks featured twolarger than average defensive ends who often rotated to DT in Michael Bennett, and Red Bryant. The versatility of these three players allowed them to hide the fact that Seattle didn't have the truly dominant 3 technique associated with many great 4-3 defenses.
This year the Bears have a very versatile DE in Lamarr Houston who is very similar physically to Bennett. While Houston lacks the pass-rush ability of Bennett, he's still productive in that department and is as capable of playing the 3 technique as Bennett. While Willie Young probably won't slide inside very often, he proved last year that he can set the edge against the run and will likely be moved around from left and right end, and maybe even to OLB in some packages, much as the Seahawks rotated the similarly-sized Chris Clemons.
The Bears also have two different defensive tackles in Jay Ratliff and Stephen Paea who have experience both in primarily run-stopping roles (Ratliff a 3-4 nose guard, Paea as a 4-3 nose), but have the speed and flexibility to contribute at 3 technique. Behind them are the newly drafted Will Sutton (a natural 3 technique when he's at his peak weight, but who bulked up and got experience playing the nose as well last year) and Ego Ferguson. Ego is clearly the person meant to be the Bears eventual answer to Brandon Mebane, a big, hulking man-monster who controls two gaps and frees up the rest of the line to attack the backfield.
While they have to prove it on the field, I believe there's a enough talent on that Bears defensive line to match the production Seattle got from its front four last year.
3) Move your pass-rush specialist to SLB: Bruce Irvin was a surprise pick at #13 in 2012, and after a fairly successful first season and 8 sacks as a rookie, the Seahawks made the curious decision to move Irvin to SLB in order to create more opportunities for Avril, Bennett and Clemons at DE. The move actually worked pretty well as Irvin's athleticism made him a great fit at OLB, and he was able to utilize his pass rush skills in blitz packages. Avril finished the season with 45 tackles, an INT, 2 sacks, and 15 hurries despite getting off to a slow start thanks to a 4 game suspension. The Bears are hoping Shea McClellin, a similar athlete, can enjoy a similar result.
Unfortunately there's two major pieces missing from this puzzle, one of whom is arguably the single most important player on the Seahawks defense. Ryan Mundy may be a perfectly capable strong safety, but I don't think he's Kam Chancellor, and while there's reason to like the talent of Brock Vereen, I don't know if I could drink enough to make him look like Earl Thomas.
Without that athleticism and talent at safety it's unlikely the Bears can come close to duplicating the defensive success the Seahawks enjoyed last year, but with the comparable talent in the front seven and corner, there's certainly enough pieces in place, combined with that already elite offense, to get this team into the postseason, where they'll maybe have the chance to surpass one or both of their heroes.
Other times, it just makes sense, like the proliferation of the West Coast Offense or the number of teams that have started to use the spread or run most of their offense out of the shotgun because it suits the abilities of their quarterbacks.
In the Bears case, Phil Emery has very clearly had two franchises that he's focused on emulating the last two seasons. The Bears offense, while original any many ways thanks to Trestman's sometimes unorthodox approach, shares many broad similarities and an over-arching philosophy with the vastly successful Saints attack, thanks to Trestman's close relationship with Sean Payton and his hire of Aaron Kromer as offensive coordinator. Obviously this approach has been successful, with the Bears actually out-scoring their de facto mentors this past year. Thanks to the recent moves to lock up Jay Cutler, Matt Slauson, and now Brandon Marshall, they should be able to compete at that level for at least a few more years.
This year Phil Emery has very obviously decided to model the defense after the Seahawks. This only makes sense, since the Seahawks are clearly the best defense in the NFL, but it's not exactly surprising that any number of teams are hoping to emulate what Pete Carroll and John Schneider built in the northwest.
Unlike many failed imitations in NFL history, however, the Bears may be able to make this defensive conversion work. While it's unlikely the defensive makeover will result in the Bears defense outpacing their role models like the Bears offense did, it's worth examining how Emery has attempted to copy the Seahawks approach.
1) Big corners: Charles Tillman, Kyle Fuller, and Tim Jennings are not quite the size of Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner, but Tillman and Fuller are both bigger corners, and all three are sure tacklers capable of squaring up offensive players and securing the edge without help. It's worth remembering that just a year before the disaster of 2013, Tillman and Jennings were the starting corners in the Pro Bowl. While they're undoubtedly unlikely to repeat that performance this year, there's no reason to think a healthy Tillman and Jennings can't give the Bears the flexibility they need to play the Cover 1 and Cover 3 coverages that Seattle likes to use most and allow the defense to be successful.
2)A defensive line of interchangeable parts: last year the Seahawks had one pure edge rusher in Cliff Avril. Avril was a liability against the run and pretty much always has been, but the Seahawks had enough versatile pieces around him to allow him to do what he does best.
Enter Jared Allen for the Bears. Allen was never even close to being as good of a run defender as he was a pass-rusher, and to expect him to improve in that department as a Bear would be fool-hardy, but he can still be a pass-rush specialist for a team that won't ask him to do much more than that.
Outside of Avril, the Seahawks featured twolarger than average defensive ends who often rotated to DT in Michael Bennett, and Red Bryant. The versatility of these three players allowed them to hide the fact that Seattle didn't have the truly dominant 3 technique associated with many great 4-3 defenses.
This year the Bears have a very versatile DE in Lamarr Houston who is very similar physically to Bennett. While Houston lacks the pass-rush ability of Bennett, he's still productive in that department and is as capable of playing the 3 technique as Bennett. While Willie Young probably won't slide inside very often, he proved last year that he can set the edge against the run and will likely be moved around from left and right end, and maybe even to OLB in some packages, much as the Seahawks rotated the similarly-sized Chris Clemons.
The Bears also have two different defensive tackles in Jay Ratliff and Stephen Paea who have experience both in primarily run-stopping roles (Ratliff a 3-4 nose guard, Paea as a 4-3 nose), but have the speed and flexibility to contribute at 3 technique. Behind them are the newly drafted Will Sutton (a natural 3 technique when he's at his peak weight, but who bulked up and got experience playing the nose as well last year) and Ego Ferguson. Ego is clearly the person meant to be the Bears eventual answer to Brandon Mebane, a big, hulking man-monster who controls two gaps and frees up the rest of the line to attack the backfield.
While they have to prove it on the field, I believe there's a enough talent on that Bears defensive line to match the production Seattle got from its front four last year.
3) Move your pass-rush specialist to SLB: Bruce Irvin was a surprise pick at #13 in 2012, and after a fairly successful first season and 8 sacks as a rookie, the Seahawks made the curious decision to move Irvin to SLB in order to create more opportunities for Avril, Bennett and Clemons at DE. The move actually worked pretty well as Irvin's athleticism made him a great fit at OLB, and he was able to utilize his pass rush skills in blitz packages. Avril finished the season with 45 tackles, an INT, 2 sacks, and 15 hurries despite getting off to a slow start thanks to a 4 game suspension. The Bears are hoping Shea McClellin, a similar athlete, can enjoy a similar result.
Unfortunately there's two major pieces missing from this puzzle, one of whom is arguably the single most important player on the Seahawks defense. Ryan Mundy may be a perfectly capable strong safety, but I don't think he's Kam Chancellor, and while there's reason to like the talent of Brock Vereen, I don't know if I could drink enough to make him look like Earl Thomas.
Without that athleticism and talent at safety it's unlikely the Bears can come close to duplicating the defensive success the Seahawks enjoyed last year, but with the comparable talent in the front seven and corner, there's certainly enough pieces in place, combined with that already elite offense, to get this team into the postseason, where they'll maybe have the chance to surpass one or both of their heroes.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Jared Allen is A Bear, I was Wrong
I am, as all of you know, the world's foremost authority on most things Bears related. This is an undisputed fact according to the gremlins in my brain thing that handle such matters. However, Erik pointed out that in my last article I may have shot down the possibility of Phil Emery signing Jared Allen by saying the following:
Is Phil also probably aware that even with the new guys added and the guy's re-signed from last year (Jay Ratliff, Nate Collins, DJ Williams, Charles Tillman) the defense, while undoubtedly better, is still probably far from good? Sure. Are there more bearded, real tree camo loving band-aids out there who could get this defense in better shape for 2014 alone out there? Absolutely. He's not going to go down that road, for several reasons:
Okay. I can see how some people have interpreted me saying the Bears wouldn't sign Jared Allen as me saying the Bears wouldn't sign Jared Allen. This is not unlike the people in December who were happy to point out that me saying "There's no way Aaron Rodgers will start against the Bears in week 17" might possibly be construed as indicating that Aaron Rodgers wouldn't start the last game of the season. I could see where, from a certain point of view, it would appear I have been wrong before.
Here's where I'm not wrong: This signing is a good thing. Four years, $32 million is a scary number for a 31 year old defensive end, but as anyone with a brain has noted, in reality this is a 2 year deal worth $15.5 million. Is that still more than Jared Allen in a perfect world is probably worth? Sure, but Emery has placed himself in a pretty good position that enabled him to spend some extra dough on a player who will actually be asked to do Less in Chicago than he was in Minnesota. The Bears found two starting caliber DEs in Lamarr Houston and Willie Young, and they'd probably be able to field a decent DL with Nate Collins, Jeremiah Ratliff, and Stephen Paea at DT. Allen wasn't a true "need", but Phil scraped together the money to make a push for him without breaking the bank or handicapping their long term future. The cap is set to go up even more next year and Allen's hit will be easily absorbed.
By adding Allen, Phil immediately upgraded this defensive line (and hopefully the entire defense by extension) from capable to downright dangerous. The Bears have talked all offseason long about their desire to be "multiple" on defense, and Allen as the 3rd DE allows them to do just that. In a base 4-3 they can rotate Allen, Houston, and Young at end and Collins, Paea, and Ratliff at either tackle position. In passing situations or 3rd down they can move Houston inside and put Allen, Houston, Ratliff, and Young, all proven pass-rushers, on the line. If they want to give a 3-4 look I can easily picture Allen in a two point stance across from Shea McClellin while Houston is more than big enough to set the edge as a five technique DE and Ratliff has proven himself in a 3-4 in the past. That's the kind of flexibility a defensive coordinator dreams of.
I don't expect Allen to step into Chicago and plow his way to 13 sacks next year. Odds are he has lost a step at 31, but in Chicago he's merely a piece of the puzzle, likely to play far fewer snaps than he did last year, and he can focus even more on being the pass-rush specialist he has always been at heart. Emery knew that Allen was a luxury, and he waited for the price to drop accordingly while he took care of the defense's other needs. Once he had his ducks in a row and could afford to splurge, well, he made his play and gave us all another reason to be excited for 2014. Go Bears.
Also, this:
Suck it, Cutler haters.
Is Phil also probably aware that even with the new guys added and the guy's re-signed from last year (Jay Ratliff, Nate Collins, DJ Williams, Charles Tillman) the defense, while undoubtedly better, is still probably far from good? Sure. Are there more bearded, real tree camo loving band-aids out there who could get this defense in better shape for 2014 alone out there? Absolutely. He's not going to go down that road, for several reasons:
Okay. I can see how some people have interpreted me saying the Bears wouldn't sign Jared Allen as me saying the Bears wouldn't sign Jared Allen. This is not unlike the people in December who were happy to point out that me saying "There's no way Aaron Rodgers will start against the Bears in week 17" might possibly be construed as indicating that Aaron Rodgers wouldn't start the last game of the season. I could see where, from a certain point of view, it would appear I have been wrong before.
Here's where I'm not wrong: This signing is a good thing. Four years, $32 million is a scary number for a 31 year old defensive end, but as anyone with a brain has noted, in reality this is a 2 year deal worth $15.5 million. Is that still more than Jared Allen in a perfect world is probably worth? Sure, but Emery has placed himself in a pretty good position that enabled him to spend some extra dough on a player who will actually be asked to do Less in Chicago than he was in Minnesota. The Bears found two starting caliber DEs in Lamarr Houston and Willie Young, and they'd probably be able to field a decent DL with Nate Collins, Jeremiah Ratliff, and Stephen Paea at DT. Allen wasn't a true "need", but Phil scraped together the money to make a push for him without breaking the bank or handicapping their long term future. The cap is set to go up even more next year and Allen's hit will be easily absorbed.
By adding Allen, Phil immediately upgraded this defensive line (and hopefully the entire defense by extension) from capable to downright dangerous. The Bears have talked all offseason long about their desire to be "multiple" on defense, and Allen as the 3rd DE allows them to do just that. In a base 4-3 they can rotate Allen, Houston, and Young at end and Collins, Paea, and Ratliff at either tackle position. In passing situations or 3rd down they can move Houston inside and put Allen, Houston, Ratliff, and Young, all proven pass-rushers, on the line. If they want to give a 3-4 look I can easily picture Allen in a two point stance across from Shea McClellin while Houston is more than big enough to set the edge as a five technique DE and Ratliff has proven himself in a 3-4 in the past. That's the kind of flexibility a defensive coordinator dreams of.
I don't expect Allen to step into Chicago and plow his way to 13 sacks next year. Odds are he has lost a step at 31, but in Chicago he's merely a piece of the puzzle, likely to play far fewer snaps than he did last year, and he can focus even more on being the pass-rush specialist he has always been at heart. Emery knew that Allen was a luxury, and he waited for the price to drop accordingly while he took care of the defense's other needs. Once he had his ducks in a row and could afford to splurge, well, he made his play and gave us all another reason to be excited for 2014. Go Bears.
Also, this:
Suck it, Cutler haters.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
The Long Road Back: Phil Emery and Bears Free Agency So Far
The free agency period is one of my favorite things about football, and it's also one of the worst. I love it, because after the Superbowl a dark period completely absent of any remotely relevant football news kills my soul, and free agency comes along to allow me to play armchair GM and ruthlessly scour twitter for news about player movements. Then comes the dark side. The breathless waiting, the anger over inactivity, the despair over watching players you had pegged as potential franchise-savers move on to other teams, and worst of all, the criticism of pretty much everything but fans and sports-writers.
If your team engages in a spending spree they'll be acclaimed a dream team by fans and some writers while having others tut tut and point out that "offseason champs" rarely win real Superbowls. If your team doesn't spend you'll have plenty of people asking why they are sitting idle.
The fact of the matter is that NFL Free Agency is neither the fool's gold some writers and organizations view it as nor the quick path to success that the Redskins and Cowboys desperately wish to believe it is. Like everything else it's a useful tool that has to be carefully managed and scrutinized. People will praise the Seahawks largely home-built roster till the cows come home and rightfully so, but it's hard to picture them hoisting that trophy without the contributions of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Marshawn Lynch, all key cogs acquired from other teams. Likewise, the Broncos got to the game thanks to their free agent QB, guard, DT, and CB, but these things will be forgotten the next time someone wants to make a point as to why free agency is pointless.
In the NFL free agency boils down to the same thing it does in every sport: pay for future performance, not past performance. At the truly elite positions, this is hard to do in the NFL. Most teams aren't going to let those players escape in their primes. If you're seeking a double-digit sack guy, a franchise QB, or an all-Pro wideout, well, you're screwed, and you're going to spend way too much money for their closest passable imitation on the market and end up disappointed anyway.
But if you're content to just add good players, if you look for guys you can build around, even if they aren't the cornerstones, and you pay them accordingly, there's some good stuff to be had. I believe that's what Phil has done so far.
I like Lamarr Houston. He's not likely to suddenly morph into double-digit sack guy, like some fans have tried to project, nor does he need to justify the deal he was given like some sports-writers have suggested. Phil Emery's neither stupid or dishonest. He knows what Lamarr Houston is, he's said what Lamarr Houston is, and he paid Lamarr Houston fair market value for exactly what he offers: downright elite run defense and average pass rush. He's not a player that needs to come off the field in passing situations. He'll make quarterbacks uncomfortable, and he'll open up opportunities for other guys to do more than that. It's a good signing.
Willie Young's also a good signing. Like, Houston (26), and unlike many other free agents, he's still under 30 (28) and is entering the prime years of his career. Last year was his first where he got starter's reps, and he turned in a very solid season as a pass rusher (60 total QB pressures, even if he had just 4 sacks). The deal pays Willie Young like the solid rotational player he is at worst (3 years, 9 million) and could end up being a steal if he, not Houston, develops into the ten sack guy people think he's capable of being.
Ryan Mundy is a guy who probably won't embarrass himself if forced to start. Fortunately for us, that's light years above last year's contributor at the strong safety position, Major Wright, who finished dead f*&king last in PFF's safety rankings. That's really all I've got there.
As for the rest of the back end of the roster guys the Bears have added (MD Jennings, other shitty safeties likely to only be special teamers, Domenik Hixon), well, snooze. If you're panicking and screaming that MD Jennings isn't starter material, well, relax. Emery's not thinking that either, and Jennings' pay check spells that out.
I don't think Emery is done yet. There are bargains still to be had out there, and Phil did a good job last year in scouring the secondary market to bring in guys like Slauson and DJ Williams. I'm sure there's potentially another DB and a DL that he'll add, but only at his price. I, too, would like Chris Clemons at free safety, Bears fan on Twitter, and I'm sure Phil Emery would too, but I doubt he's willing to pay him big money he's probably not worth under any objective evaluation and have the opportunity cost be the chance to draft a potentially elite safety in the first round or possibly even make a run at a top tier safety in free agency Next year.
Is Phil also probably aware that even with the new guys added and the guy's re-signed from last year (Jay Ratliff, Nate Collins, DJ Williams, Charles Tillman) the defense, while undoubtedly better, is still probably far from good? Sure. Are there more bearded, real tree camo loving band-aids out there who could get this defense in better shape for 2014 alone out there? Absolutely. He's not going to go down that road, for several reasons:
1) That approach is a large reason why we're in the mess we're in in the first place, and it only gets worse down the road.
The 2013 Bears defense was based on a hope that the 2012 defense, long in the tooth and overpriced as it was, could handle one more trip around the sun without a total collapse, giving Emery time to pick and choose where he needed to infuse the roster with younger talent. That didn't happen, injuries and age wiped out the costliest and most important players on the roster, and there were no experienced reinforcements ready to step in, largely thanks to the fact that, as many have pointed out with the departure of Henry Melton, there's not a single damn player left on the roster from Jerry Angelo's 2004-2010 drafts other than Matt Forte. That's damn hard to overcome. It actually says a lot about Emery and even Angelo too that the team's managed to be competitive and avoid a Cowboys or Skins like cap hell while still having to rely largely on players developed by other organizations, but the day of reckoning came. The fanbase is going to have to accept, as Emery seemingly has, that the best case scenario for the defense in 2014 may just be "strive for mediocrity" while Phil loads up in the draft and keeps the cap clear to target top young defensive talent in free agency next year.
2) They don't need to be the 2012 Bears Defense to Win
This is important. This team won 8 games last year despite a defense that was historically bad. If the run defense alone had been competent (something that seems the only safe assumption about the 2014 Bears given that Young, Houston, Ratliff, Collins, Briggs, and Tillman are all better run defenders than their predecessors/the people filling in for them while were hurt last year) they probably prevent the upset losses they suffered at the hands of the Rams and Vikings and earn themselves a playoff berth. Next year the offense should be capable of carrying a mediocre defense, and if that's the one year solution the team needs to accept in order to position themselves for a true rebuild of the defense going forward, I can accept that.
In short, I like the moves the Bears have made so far, and I understand the ones they haven't made to this point. I think they'll be better, even if the defense will likely be far from great. The path to greatness isn't paved with whatever is left in free agency anyway. Hopefully Phil can buck recent trends on defense and find that route in the draft. Go Bears.
If your team engages in a spending spree they'll be acclaimed a dream team by fans and some writers while having others tut tut and point out that "offseason champs" rarely win real Superbowls. If your team doesn't spend you'll have plenty of people asking why they are sitting idle.
The fact of the matter is that NFL Free Agency is neither the fool's gold some writers and organizations view it as nor the quick path to success that the Redskins and Cowboys desperately wish to believe it is. Like everything else it's a useful tool that has to be carefully managed and scrutinized. People will praise the Seahawks largely home-built roster till the cows come home and rightfully so, but it's hard to picture them hoisting that trophy without the contributions of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Marshawn Lynch, all key cogs acquired from other teams. Likewise, the Broncos got to the game thanks to their free agent QB, guard, DT, and CB, but these things will be forgotten the next time someone wants to make a point as to why free agency is pointless.
In the NFL free agency boils down to the same thing it does in every sport: pay for future performance, not past performance. At the truly elite positions, this is hard to do in the NFL. Most teams aren't going to let those players escape in their primes. If you're seeking a double-digit sack guy, a franchise QB, or an all-Pro wideout, well, you're screwed, and you're going to spend way too much money for their closest passable imitation on the market and end up disappointed anyway.
But if you're content to just add good players, if you look for guys you can build around, even if they aren't the cornerstones, and you pay them accordingly, there's some good stuff to be had. I believe that's what Phil has done so far.
I like Lamarr Houston. He's not likely to suddenly morph into double-digit sack guy, like some fans have tried to project, nor does he need to justify the deal he was given like some sports-writers have suggested. Phil Emery's neither stupid or dishonest. He knows what Lamarr Houston is, he's said what Lamarr Houston is, and he paid Lamarr Houston fair market value for exactly what he offers: downright elite run defense and average pass rush. He's not a player that needs to come off the field in passing situations. He'll make quarterbacks uncomfortable, and he'll open up opportunities for other guys to do more than that. It's a good signing.
Willie Young's also a good signing. Like, Houston (26), and unlike many other free agents, he's still under 30 (28) and is entering the prime years of his career. Last year was his first where he got starter's reps, and he turned in a very solid season as a pass rusher (60 total QB pressures, even if he had just 4 sacks). The deal pays Willie Young like the solid rotational player he is at worst (3 years, 9 million) and could end up being a steal if he, not Houston, develops into the ten sack guy people think he's capable of being.
Ryan Mundy is a guy who probably won't embarrass himself if forced to start. Fortunately for us, that's light years above last year's contributor at the strong safety position, Major Wright, who finished dead f*&king last in PFF's safety rankings. That's really all I've got there.
As for the rest of the back end of the roster guys the Bears have added (MD Jennings, other shitty safeties likely to only be special teamers, Domenik Hixon), well, snooze. If you're panicking and screaming that MD Jennings isn't starter material, well, relax. Emery's not thinking that either, and Jennings' pay check spells that out.
I don't think Emery is done yet. There are bargains still to be had out there, and Phil did a good job last year in scouring the secondary market to bring in guys like Slauson and DJ Williams. I'm sure there's potentially another DB and a DL that he'll add, but only at his price. I, too, would like Chris Clemons at free safety, Bears fan on Twitter, and I'm sure Phil Emery would too, but I doubt he's willing to pay him big money he's probably not worth under any objective evaluation and have the opportunity cost be the chance to draft a potentially elite safety in the first round or possibly even make a run at a top tier safety in free agency Next year.
Is Phil also probably aware that even with the new guys added and the guy's re-signed from last year (Jay Ratliff, Nate Collins, DJ Williams, Charles Tillman) the defense, while undoubtedly better, is still probably far from good? Sure. Are there more bearded, real tree camo loving band-aids out there who could get this defense in better shape for 2014 alone out there? Absolutely. He's not going to go down that road, for several reasons:
1) That approach is a large reason why we're in the mess we're in in the first place, and it only gets worse down the road.
The 2013 Bears defense was based on a hope that the 2012 defense, long in the tooth and overpriced as it was, could handle one more trip around the sun without a total collapse, giving Emery time to pick and choose where he needed to infuse the roster with younger talent. That didn't happen, injuries and age wiped out the costliest and most important players on the roster, and there were no experienced reinforcements ready to step in, largely thanks to the fact that, as many have pointed out with the departure of Henry Melton, there's not a single damn player left on the roster from Jerry Angelo's 2004-2010 drafts other than Matt Forte. That's damn hard to overcome. It actually says a lot about Emery and even Angelo too that the team's managed to be competitive and avoid a Cowboys or Skins like cap hell while still having to rely largely on players developed by other organizations, but the day of reckoning came. The fanbase is going to have to accept, as Emery seemingly has, that the best case scenario for the defense in 2014 may just be "strive for mediocrity" while Phil loads up in the draft and keeps the cap clear to target top young defensive talent in free agency next year.
2) They don't need to be the 2012 Bears Defense to Win
This is important. This team won 8 games last year despite a defense that was historically bad. If the run defense alone had been competent (something that seems the only safe assumption about the 2014 Bears given that Young, Houston, Ratliff, Collins, Briggs, and Tillman are all better run defenders than their predecessors/the people filling in for them while were hurt last year) they probably prevent the upset losses they suffered at the hands of the Rams and Vikings and earn themselves a playoff berth. Next year the offense should be capable of carrying a mediocre defense, and if that's the one year solution the team needs to accept in order to position themselves for a true rebuild of the defense going forward, I can accept that.
In short, I like the moves the Bears have made so far, and I understand the ones they haven't made to this point. I think they'll be better, even if the defense will likely be far from great. The path to greatness isn't paved with whatever is left in free agency anyway. Hopefully Phil can buck recent trends on defense and find that route in the draft. Go Bears.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Seriously, Steve, another one?
I come at these columns pretty hard. I use a lot of words, and most of them are derogatory. But only Steve Rosenbloom has ever actually made me physically angry in a column before. And he's managed to do it twice in one week.
Now there are a lot of dumb things that get said about this football team by a lot of different people. Steve, though, is just an asshole. He's petty and mean, and when he can't find facts that justify that attitude he just plain invents fantasy scenarios to get angry about. Because he is a bad writer, he can't come up with 1,000 uninterrupted words that anyone would willingly read unless he's made them irrationally angry, whether it's at the team or at Steve himself.
I won't feign resignation this time, as soon as I read the headline I wanted to rip this pathetic pail of putrid and possibly plagued poop to pieces.
That alliteration is the last happy thing that will happen in this post. All the other pictures are of heads exploding.
Now there are a lot of dumb things that get said about this football team by a lot of different people. Steve, though, is just an asshole. He's petty and mean, and when he can't find facts that justify that attitude he just plain invents fantasy scenarios to get angry about. Because he is a bad writer, he can't come up with 1,000 uninterrupted words that anyone would willingly read unless he's made them irrationally angry, whether it's at the team or at Steve himself.
I won't feign resignation this time, as soon as I read the headline I wanted to rip this pathetic pail of putrid and possibly plagued poop to pieces.
That alliteration is the last happy thing that will happen in this post. All the other pictures are of heads exploding.
Monday, March 10, 2014
This is just sad, even for the offseason.
Ahh the offseason. What's a football columnist to do without any football happenings? Make a total ass of himself. That's the answer.
This column by the Tribune's Steve Rosenbloom started from a reasonable enough standpoint for the kind of obvious waffle that fills up the time between the Super Bowl and free agency. Shea McClellin was a bust at DE, and now the best he can hope for is to compete to maybe earn snaps at linebacker.
But you can't write 1,000 incensed words about that at this point, so Steve had to try to take it a step further. Clearly, the lack of success on Shea's part is indicative of some horrible failure on Phil Emery's. Let me tell you, the result is not pretty. Usually I just kind of surf the Chicago newspapers until something catches my eye, but we actually got requests that I put this loathsome piece of shit out of its misery. And so, with a heavy heart, I dug out my italics.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
He's Baaaaack
You can never say that Phil Emery is lazy. When he makes up his mind, he gets things done--fast.
Today, as you undoubtedly know, Phil opened his end of the year press conference with the nonchalant announcement that the team had agreed to deals with Matt Slauson, Tim Jennings, and some jerk with bad sideline demeanor. Then he dropped the mic and walked off stage.
I'm kidding. Because this is Phil Emery, he talked for 90 more minutes and left no doubt that he was undoubtedly the smartest S.O.B. in the room. Because of that, he made the smart move and brought back his franchise quarterback for at least three more years (yes, the deal says 7, but if there's no guaranteed money after year three it's a 3 year deal, folks. The rest is monopoly money).
Sure, there are questions about this. Was Jay worth $18 million a year? Probably not. Few people are. But you pay to play in this business, and if you can honestly say you don't think Jay's market value was right where he landed (somewhere between Tony Romo and Matt Ryan in terms of guaranteed cash), you're a fool. Can Jay stay healthy? I'll admit that's certainly my biggest concern.
Despite this, I am obviously in favor of the extension. I'm not going to lay out the financial arguments since I have no idea where exactly the the 2014 cap hit will fall and I am interested in seeing what else Phil is able to do in free agency after this. I will say that Phil Emery is as straightforward and honest as a general manager gets, and if he says the team will have the flexibility to sign who they want in free agency, I believe him.
From a football standpoint, Jay is worth the money. Jay had his best year this year in many categories, with a career high QB rating of 89.2 and a completion % of 63.1, his highest since 2007. He also had a career high TD% of 5.4, putting him on pace for 30 TD passes had he played the whole season. If you're into advanced metrics like myself, Jay finished 10th in the NFL with a +13.7 grade from Pro Football Focus and finished 6th in their adjusted QB rating statistic (takes into account dropped passes, throwaways, passes where the QB was hit before throwing, and more) at 91.7. If you're into weird statistics invented by Trent Dilfer that put way too much emphasis on Clutchitude, he was 8th in the NFL in Total QBR.
To me, the most encouraging thing was Jay's growth in the offense as the season went along. After he compiled an 85.7 passer rating and 6.8 YPA through the first four games as his comfort level in the offense and his protection grew, Jay and Trestman unleashed the deep ball as the season went on. In his final 6 full games as a starter (excluding the 8 passes he threw vs. the Redskins before the groinsplosion) Jay completed 63.3% of his passes for 264 YPG, 8.0 YPA, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 95.9 rating. Provided he stays healthy, I'd expect those numbers to be what we can expect going forward in year two of this offense (and it's worth noting this is just the third time in Jay's career he will be in the same offense for two straight years). That's worth paying for.
Putting aside any kind of argument whatsoever, I'll admit that I am happy about this because I like Jay Cutler. I like rooting for him, and I think he's fun as hell to watch, especially when he's in an offense like this that let's him thrive. I am glad I won't have to spend next year watching Josh McCown regress to the mean or some potentially hapless rookie and wonder what Jay could have done with another offseason of Trestman's tutelage. For better or for worse, we're going to get the definitive answer to what Jay is capable of in the years to come. The debate is now over. All that's left is to ride that beautiful armcock to the Superbowl.
Oh, and good job on the Slauson/Jennings thing, Phil. Those guys are good too. Go Bears.
Unrelated: if you're wondering when the hell we're going to do a SKOdCast and discuss all of the exciting shit that's gone down lately, the answer is soon. We're working on a new day of the week now that our schedules have changed once more. You'll not miss us for much longer, I assure you.
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
Opinionating: Ten Thoughts on the Bears and Beyond
You know I haven't written one of my long, stat-filled monologues lately, and it's because I've had a number of thoughts that seemed too incomplete for a full post but too irrelevant to mention or expound upon in the podcast, so I've kind of just held onto them. As an egotistical windbag, however, I think, in the tradition of talking heads like Peter King, I'll start a new semi-regular feature with my ten thoughts of the moment on the Bears and the rest of the NFL. Some of these have logic and reason to them, others do not. So here we go.
1. Jon Bostic would be my starter at MLB in week one whether DJ Williams was healthy or not. I'm not one to overrate a couple of big plays. A simple pick six and a massive hit aren't enough to blind me to Bostic's weaknesses in coverage and the fact that he overruns plays. That said, people who remember DJ Williams as some kind of good middle linebacker are remembering a myth. I realize he has name recognition and once led the league in the ridiculously overrated statistic of tackles, but he has generally played better in his career at OLB and has never been a consistent coverage guy in the middle. If we're picking between two guys who will rack up a bunch of tackles and occasionally get embarrassed in coverage, I'll take the kid who might develop into something.
2. It's early and it's guaranteed they will all struggle to some extent at some point, but if Long, Bostic, Mills, Jeffery, McClellin, and Frey all start or contribute heavily in their first and second years, Emery's first two draft classes would already put much of Angelo's last half-decade to shame. They don't even necessarily have to be that good, the mere fact that they're going to set foot on the field trumps Angelo's classes of non-entities like Jarron Gilbert, Michael Okwo, Dan Bazuin, and Juaquin Iglesias.
3. With Emery's willingness to change 4/5 starters on a bad offensive line in offseason, despite limited cap space, you start to question all of Angelo's "we like our guys" and "good offensive linemen are hard to find" excuses for his failure to do the same.
4. I think people who expect Jay to have that "breakout season" are somewhat mistaken. I think Jay will probably just look a lot more like that guy in Denver we thought we were getting. That's good with me. If Jay can just move the ball, he has two things in Matt Forte and an actual defense that he didn't have in Denver that I think can make all the difference.
5. I am starting to have serious doubts about the future of Earl Bennett's career. This saddens me greatly, but there are enough young guys in camp who have done something this offseason to make you wonder how long Earl's spot is guaranteed. Part of me wonders if they might put him on the PUP if his concussion lingers, and give Anderson or Wilson six weeks to impress them.
6. I still don't think EJ Manuel will be good in the NFL. I don't see why the Bills would bother with starting Kevin Kolb in front of him, anyway. There's enough talent on the Bills offense that I don't think they'd be throwing Manuel to the wolves. Might as well see what he can do.
7. I still think the Ravens win the AFC North. Much like people are overreacting to the Bears losing Urlacher, many of the players the Ravens lost weren't actually that good, and they've made some solid upgrades with less-notable names. Also, considering the alternative is expecting the Bengals to improve for a third straight year, I'm hesitant to pull the trigger there.
8. I can't predict the NFC South to save my ass. I could see any team in that damn division going 6-10 or 11-5. Except maybe Tampa. My faith in Josh Freeman isn't terribly high, largely because I think Greg Schiano hates him.For what it's worth, I hate Greg Schiano.
9. I'd be legitimately afraid of the young talent the Vikings are accumulating, were it not for the fact that Christian Ponder is their QB. You get the feeling they'll finally move on from that mistake right as Peterson's legs disintigrate and the change won't make any difference anymore.
10. He's a total ass, but I feel kind of bad for Philip Rivers. He's going to die this year. That team is garbage.
1. Jon Bostic would be my starter at MLB in week one whether DJ Williams was healthy or not. I'm not one to overrate a couple of big plays. A simple pick six and a massive hit aren't enough to blind me to Bostic's weaknesses in coverage and the fact that he overruns plays. That said, people who remember DJ Williams as some kind of good middle linebacker are remembering a myth. I realize he has name recognition and once led the league in the ridiculously overrated statistic of tackles, but he has generally played better in his career at OLB and has never been a consistent coverage guy in the middle. If we're picking between two guys who will rack up a bunch of tackles and occasionally get embarrassed in coverage, I'll take the kid who might develop into something.
2. It's early and it's guaranteed they will all struggle to some extent at some point, but if Long, Bostic, Mills, Jeffery, McClellin, and Frey all start or contribute heavily in their first and second years, Emery's first two draft classes would already put much of Angelo's last half-decade to shame. They don't even necessarily have to be that good, the mere fact that they're going to set foot on the field trumps Angelo's classes of non-entities like Jarron Gilbert, Michael Okwo, Dan Bazuin, and Juaquin Iglesias.
3. With Emery's willingness to change 4/5 starters on a bad offensive line in offseason, despite limited cap space, you start to question all of Angelo's "we like our guys" and "good offensive linemen are hard to find" excuses for his failure to do the same.
4. I think people who expect Jay to have that "breakout season" are somewhat mistaken. I think Jay will probably just look a lot more like that guy in Denver we thought we were getting. That's good with me. If Jay can just move the ball, he has two things in Matt Forte and an actual defense that he didn't have in Denver that I think can make all the difference.
5. I am starting to have serious doubts about the future of Earl Bennett's career. This saddens me greatly, but there are enough young guys in camp who have done something this offseason to make you wonder how long Earl's spot is guaranteed. Part of me wonders if they might put him on the PUP if his concussion lingers, and give Anderson or Wilson six weeks to impress them.
6. I still don't think EJ Manuel will be good in the NFL. I don't see why the Bills would bother with starting Kevin Kolb in front of him, anyway. There's enough talent on the Bills offense that I don't think they'd be throwing Manuel to the wolves. Might as well see what he can do.
7. I still think the Ravens win the AFC North. Much like people are overreacting to the Bears losing Urlacher, many of the players the Ravens lost weren't actually that good, and they've made some solid upgrades with less-notable names. Also, considering the alternative is expecting the Bengals to improve for a third straight year, I'm hesitant to pull the trigger there.
8. I can't predict the NFC South to save my ass. I could see any team in that damn division going 6-10 or 11-5. Except maybe Tampa. My faith in Josh Freeman isn't terribly high, largely because I think Greg Schiano hates him.For what it's worth, I hate Greg Schiano.
9. I'd be legitimately afraid of the young talent the Vikings are accumulating, were it not for the fact that Christian Ponder is their QB. You get the feeling they'll finally move on from that mistake right as Peterson's legs disintigrate and the change won't make any difference anymore.
10. He's a total ass, but I feel kind of bad for Philip Rivers. He's going to die this year. That team is garbage.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
People I Hate: You, If You're Still Whining About the Bears Passing on Tyler Eifert
I'll give Bears fans more credit than I usually do. After an initial panicked reaction by many on the actual night of the first round, the general consensus seems to be a calm, rational "let's see how this plays out" regarding Kyle Long. However, the few people who are still desperately clinging to the idea that this was a wasted first round pick, be they fans or media talking heads (lookin' at you, Kiper and Steve Rosendouche), seem to be basing their complaints less on any perceived shortcomings of Long's and more on the opportunity cost in terms of a player the Bears passed on, namely one Tyler Eifert.
If this description applies to you, well, I warn you, if you read my following reasons as to why you're a moron, they will probably break you. Don't worry, though, I will rebuild you into something better, smarter, and more knowledgeable in the ways of the football, like me.
Without further ado, here's why Phil Emery wasn't wrong to pass on Tyler Eifert:
A #2 Tight End was absolutely nowhere near this team's biggest need:
Quick, write a list of the top three reasons why Jay Cutler has struggled at times as a Bear. I'll wait.
Got it? Okay, if your list had "he really needs a great pass-catching #2 Tight End!" anywhere ahead of: 1. Absolutely shitty offensive line play, 2. Inconsistent and sometimes clueless coaching, or 3. His tendency to fire fastballs to opposing defensive backs when he's frustrated, I'd really like you to go drink a nice, tall glass of battery acid.
I hope that hurt. The Bears have plenty of targets. They have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, and two very good pass-catching runningbacks, among others. They hope they've address the coaching problem by hiring Trestman. In order to fix #3, they need to fix #'s 1 and 2, and they're hoping to do that by drafting Kyle Long. Literally none of the above problems are solved with a backup tight end.
Yes, I said backup tight end:
Do you know who this is? It's okay if you don't. Mel Kiper and the ESPN crew seemed to quite stubbornly ignore his existence while urging the Bears to take Eifert so that Mel's precious big board would look a little less stupid. This is Martellus Bennett. He's a bit of an odd fellow. He calls himself the Black Unicorn and raps about Cap'N'Crunch.
He's also a damn good tight end. According to Pro Football Focus he's been one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL since he entered the league, and last year, in his first year free from the shadow of Tony Romo's favorite target Jason Witten, he racked up 626 yards receiving and 5 TDs by catching over 61% of the balls thrown his way. He's your starter, and that's a good thing, so you're lobbying for a backup with your first round pick.
"But, but, the Patriots!":
Oh, right, the Patriots have had so much success with Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk. It's the way of the future! EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE TWO SUPER AWESOME TIGHT ENDS!
Well, last time I checked the Patriots had the highest scoring offense in history before they had either of those two on the roster. It turns out that Tom Brady, with time behind a great offensive line (and that's key here, folks), can make any assortment of pass-catchers, regardless of position, into a damn good offense. Doesn't mean that's the only way to fly.
Also, the Bears had two pretty decent pass-catching tight ends with Cutler once, in 2009, and he couldn't hit Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen with his face in the turf.
If the Bears DO want two pass-catching tight ends, well, there's always Evan Rodriguez, the big hulking guy who runs a 4.5 forty and drew comparisons to Aaron Hernandez coming out of college for his great hands, good speed, supposedly questionable blocking ability, and because of the unwritten scouting law that you can only compare prospects to someone of the same ethnicity. It turns out Rodriguez actually blocks really well, and he led all Bears tight ends with 3 catches for 49 yards in the preseason, and Mike Tice's natural response to this surprising upside was to make a fast, versatile athlete into a blocking-only fullback while Kellen Davis kicked all of our hopes and dreams in the testicles. Trestman is on record as saying he sees a lot of potential for Rodriguez in the passing game, provided he can avoid further incidents with the law.
Hey, what if Tyler Eifert's not really any good?
I know, I know, it's unthinkable a highly-touted prospect from Notre Dame could be overrated. Such things have never happened before in the history of football. Interestingly enough, Eifert drew a lot of comparisons throughout his career to Stanford's Coby Fleener, the top tight end in last year's draft who ended up with a whopping 281 yards receiving last year and a spot on the depth chart behind the Other tight end his team drafted. It's also hard to find a single scouting report of Eifer that doesn't criticize his blocking abilities to some extent, so excuse Phil Emery for not falling all over himself to draft the next Greg Olsen (who, by the way, finally surpassed 612 yards receiving for the first time in his career on the sixth try, and we're all super proud, Greg). I mean, if Eifert ends up as just another tight end who is little more than a big wide receiver, that would seem to be of less value to a team that really, really needs blockers than, say, a really talented guard.
We get it, you just really like Notre Dame:
Seriously, just, like, shut up already.
If this description applies to you, well, I warn you, if you read my following reasons as to why you're a moron, they will probably break you. Don't worry, though, I will rebuild you into something better, smarter, and more knowledgeable in the ways of the football, like me.
Without further ado, here's why Phil Emery wasn't wrong to pass on Tyler Eifert:
A #2 Tight End was absolutely nowhere near this team's biggest need:
Quick, write a list of the top three reasons why Jay Cutler has struggled at times as a Bear. I'll wait.
Got it? Okay, if your list had "he really needs a great pass-catching #2 Tight End!" anywhere ahead of: 1. Absolutely shitty offensive line play, 2. Inconsistent and sometimes clueless coaching, or 3. His tendency to fire fastballs to opposing defensive backs when he's frustrated, I'd really like you to go drink a nice, tall glass of battery acid.
I hope that hurt. The Bears have plenty of targets. They have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, and two very good pass-catching runningbacks, among others. They hope they've address the coaching problem by hiring Trestman. In order to fix #3, they need to fix #'s 1 and 2, and they're hoping to do that by drafting Kyle Long. Literally none of the above problems are solved with a backup tight end.
Yes, I said backup tight end:
He's also a damn good tight end. According to Pro Football Focus he's been one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL since he entered the league, and last year, in his first year free from the shadow of Tony Romo's favorite target Jason Witten, he racked up 626 yards receiving and 5 TDs by catching over 61% of the balls thrown his way. He's your starter, and that's a good thing, so you're lobbying for a backup with your first round pick.
"But, but, the Patriots!":
Oh, right, the Patriots have had so much success with Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk. It's the way of the future! EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE TWO SUPER AWESOME TIGHT ENDS!
Well, last time I checked the Patriots had the highest scoring offense in history before they had either of those two on the roster. It turns out that Tom Brady, with time behind a great offensive line (and that's key here, folks), can make any assortment of pass-catchers, regardless of position, into a damn good offense. Doesn't mean that's the only way to fly.
Also, the Bears had two pretty decent pass-catching tight ends with Cutler once, in 2009, and he couldn't hit Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen with his face in the turf.
If the Bears DO want two pass-catching tight ends, well, there's always Evan Rodriguez, the big hulking guy who runs a 4.5 forty and drew comparisons to Aaron Hernandez coming out of college for his great hands, good speed, supposedly questionable blocking ability, and because of the unwritten scouting law that you can only compare prospects to someone of the same ethnicity. It turns out Rodriguez actually blocks really well, and he led all Bears tight ends with 3 catches for 49 yards in the preseason, and Mike Tice's natural response to this surprising upside was to make a fast, versatile athlete into a blocking-only fullback while Kellen Davis kicked all of our hopes and dreams in the testicles. Trestman is on record as saying he sees a lot of potential for Rodriguez in the passing game, provided he can avoid further incidents with the law.
Hey, what if Tyler Eifert's not really any good?
I know, I know, it's unthinkable a highly-touted prospect from Notre Dame could be overrated. Such things have never happened before in the history of football. Interestingly enough, Eifert drew a lot of comparisons throughout his career to Stanford's Coby Fleener, the top tight end in last year's draft who ended up with a whopping 281 yards receiving last year and a spot on the depth chart behind the Other tight end his team drafted. It's also hard to find a single scouting report of Eifer that doesn't criticize his blocking abilities to some extent, so excuse Phil Emery for not falling all over himself to draft the next Greg Olsen (who, by the way, finally surpassed 612 yards receiving for the first time in his career on the sixth try, and we're all super proud, Greg). I mean, if Eifert ends up as just another tight end who is little more than a big wide receiver, that would seem to be of less value to a team that really, really needs blockers than, say, a really talented guard.
We get it, you just really like Notre Dame:
Seriously, just, like, shut up already.
Saturday, April 27, 2013
2013 Bears Draft: Talent Trumps All
Every year I think it's expected that every blogger give their half-assed draft grades after the whole process is done. I've never really done that and still won't. The draft is a crapshoot and millions of dollars are spent trying to determine whether these kids are any good or not, and half or more of them will still fail. So I'm not going to say before anyone's taken a snap whether they're an A or a C. With that said, with all we have to go by being physical attributes, positions, and production...I am as excited about this draft class' potential as I can remember being at any point in recent years. Last year I was little more than cautiously optimistic about Shea, thrilled about Alshon, utterly befuddled by Brandon Hardin, surprised by Evan Rodriguez, and didn't expect much out of the rest (and none of them made the roster), but this year the Bears drafted talented players who fit clear needs in nearly every round, and it's quite possible all six players could make the roster and contribute on the field this year. That's the best you can really hope for.
#20 Overall, Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
So on last week's SKOdCast, we made a desperate plea to Bears fans to not immediately assume a guy sucks if the team drafted someone other than the names you kept seeing in mock drafts. Naturally they chose a surprise player and everybody lost their F*&KING MINDS.
After the dust settled, however, Long isn't really that big of a surprise. He was a top 30 player on ESPN's board, Scouts, INC had him ranked #26, he was the consensus third best guard in the draft...and the Bears badly needed a guard. Why is this so hard? As for the people who feel it's a reach, well, that seems unlikely for a guy who was a top 30 prospect. Some think the Cowboys traded back because they thought they could nab him and were shocked when he was gone and forced into taking Frederick. Others have said the Colts wanted him. I really don't care. In a draft like this, where top-level talent at the premier positions was largely lacking, the difference between a player at #20 and a player at #40 isn't that great, and those slots were going to be determined by team preference. If Long was their guy, and I have no trouble believing he was, it makes sense to me to take him as soon as you have the chance, because with nine offensive linemen off the board in the first round it wasn't likely he'd still be there later. Also, the 20th overall pick last year got $8 million for four years, so I really don't think the franchise is screwed if he bombs.
I don't think he will, though. He's a freak of nature athletically and he looks like goddamn Frankenstein's monster. Playing at guard he'll hopefully be less exposed as he learns on the run and his natural talent should help make up for his lack of experience. I don't think his inexperience is that much of an issue anyway, he got a full season of experience under his belt at a top five program (even if he only started five games) and started for a year at JuCo before that. The offensive line isn't exactly the most mentally demanding position on the field, and Aaron Kromer has a track record of developing linemen from Division II schools and turning them into immediate starters. I am excited to see what he can do, and unlike many, apparently, I'm willing to wait to see him do it before I pass judgment.
#50 Overall, Jon Bostic, MLB, Florida
Bostic actually makes the most sense of any linebacker that was in the draft for the Bears, if you think about it. He's not undersized for an MLB, like Arthur Brown, so he's less likely to struggle in the middle in the NFL, he was the 3rd-fastest linebacker at the combine with a 4.61 40, so he's more than capable of dropping deep into coverage in the Tampa Two, and he also made all of the calls in a Tampa Two style defense at Florida. I think Arthur Brown may have been a more tempting athletic prospect, but Bostic is as natural a fit as they were going to find, and the presence of DJ Williams keeps the pressure to produce immediately off of him.
#117 Overall, Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers
He's going to draw a ton of comparisons to Lance Briggs, who he's obviously intended to provide depth and a potential heir for, given his position, their similar measurables (and matching 4.7 40 times at their respective combines), and that's both unfair and understandable. No one can necessarily be Lance Briggs, arguably one of the two greatest players to ever play the OLB in a Tampa Two style defense, but Greene's numbers in college are promising in two categories where Lance has often thrived: impact tackles (gains of two yards or less that prevented first downs), where Greene led all college linebackers last year with 27, and forced fumbles (15 for his career). A lot of people will question his numbers by saying the scheme at Rutgers was designed to give him a free shot at the ball-carrier, but that's exactly what the Bears defense does for Briggs. It may have taken Urlacher's very rapid demise to give the organization some urgency, but it's nice to see them actively prepare for a world without their superstar linebacker. The Greene and Bostic picks should also put to a rest for all time the conspiracy theories that the Bears are still potentially planning a switch to a 3-4 in the near future, because Greene and Bostic fit exactly one type of defense perfectly, and it's the one they're already running.
#163 Overall, Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech
You never want to overrate the potential impact of a late round offensive lineman, but there's cause for optimism with Mills. He has good size and arm length and he was considered by many to be a potential 3rd round pick. Even more importantly is, as I mentioned with Kyle Long, Aaron Kromer's track record as an offensive line coach: Jahri Evans (4th Rd, Division II Bloomsburg University), Carl Nicks (5th Rd, transferred to Nebraska after two years of JuCo), Jermon Bushrod (4th Rd, FCS Towson), and Zach Strief (7th Rd, Northwestern) were all mid to late round picks mostly from small schools who have become Pro Bowl or All Pro caliber linemen under Kromer's guidance. Nicks and Evans both started and played well as rookies as well, so there's reason to believe that if Kromer thinks Long and Mills can play right from the start, he's probably right. Even if Mills is just a potential future starter and a guy who can add to the competition this year, it's nice to see that Emery has now added five completely new players to the offensive line, and that guys like Webb and Carimi (and hopefully even Garza) will have to earn both their jobs and their roster spots. The overhaul was long awaited, but better late than never.
#188 Overall, Cornelius Washington, DE, Georgia
It's never a Bears draft without a defensive lineman (although we finally broke the 8 years long streak of safeties), but I didn't look into many defensive ends before the draft so I can't tell you shit about this guy. Mike Mayock says he's fast (4.55 40) and he likes the pick for a situational pass rusher. With Wootton, McClellin, and Kyle Moore (and the still possible return of Izzy) he seems to have the toughest task of cracking the roster of any of the picks, but we'll see.
#236 Overall, Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State
Oh man do I approve of this. Marquess Wilson, ironically, is the only guy the Bears drafted that I've actually watched several games of, and I was hoping all along he might be an option for the team at some point. He's a first day talent (I don't know about first round, although some had him there before last season) who fell hard because of some admittedly concerning personal issues. As Iggins! can tell you, I'm not one to get scared off by drinking or pot (DRAFT THE WEED GUY! is one of my favorite chants on draft day, actually), but a guy who walked out on his team and made apparently false claims of abuse against his coaches probably has some maturity issues. In the seventh round, though? Absolutely worth the risk. He's 6'4'', he plays much faster than his 40 time (4.51, still not bad), and, like Jeffery and Marshall, makes himself a deep threat less through speed than his ability to create separation and fight for jump balls. In a best case scenario he's a solid #3 who rotates with Bennett, but he's also a similar type of player who can step in as a potential starter on the outside if Jeffery struggles or is injured again in year two. I just can't see a downside here.
Wilson also illustrates the difference between Phil Emery and Jerry Angelo's philosophies. If you look at the receivers that Jerry took in the 6th or 7th rounds (Derek Kinder, Marcus Monk, Jamin Elliot) or guys he signed as UFAs like Sanzenfucker or Mike Haas, Angelo preferred to go with productive college starters who lacked measurables but seemed valuable to a team through their hard work and potential production on special teams. Wilson was definitely productive (averaged 97 yards per game in his career at WSU), but Emery clearly values the potential of hitting on another big, physical receiver than on a smaller guy who might be more useful on special teams. High Ceilings, Low Floors (Emery) vs. High Floors, Low Ceilings (Angelo). Not that one option is necessarily better than the other over the long haul, but it certainly gives you more hope in the spring time when camp is still far away.
That's all for now. In short, I'm more than fine with taking a guard with tons of potential at #20 in a very odd draft, even if it may have been a bit of a gamble, but I'm even more excited about the depth and potential from nearly every round of the draft, more so than in recent memory. I can't wait for camp to start. While it's premature to tell whether they'll be any good or not, there's certainly a lot of questions I'm looking forward to seeing them answer. Go Bears.
Tune in to the SKOdCast this Wednesday for even more discussion of the draft.
#20 Overall, Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
So on last week's SKOdCast, we made a desperate plea to Bears fans to not immediately assume a guy sucks if the team drafted someone other than the names you kept seeing in mock drafts. Naturally they chose a surprise player and everybody lost their F*&KING MINDS.
After the dust settled, however, Long isn't really that big of a surprise. He was a top 30 player on ESPN's board, Scouts, INC had him ranked #26, he was the consensus third best guard in the draft...and the Bears badly needed a guard. Why is this so hard? As for the people who feel it's a reach, well, that seems unlikely for a guy who was a top 30 prospect. Some think the Cowboys traded back because they thought they could nab him and were shocked when he was gone and forced into taking Frederick. Others have said the Colts wanted him. I really don't care. In a draft like this, where top-level talent at the premier positions was largely lacking, the difference between a player at #20 and a player at #40 isn't that great, and those slots were going to be determined by team preference. If Long was their guy, and I have no trouble believing he was, it makes sense to me to take him as soon as you have the chance, because with nine offensive linemen off the board in the first round it wasn't likely he'd still be there later. Also, the 20th overall pick last year got $8 million for four years, so I really don't think the franchise is screwed if he bombs.
I don't think he will, though. He's a freak of nature athletically and he looks like goddamn Frankenstein's monster. Playing at guard he'll hopefully be less exposed as he learns on the run and his natural talent should help make up for his lack of experience. I don't think his inexperience is that much of an issue anyway, he got a full season of experience under his belt at a top five program (even if he only started five games) and started for a year at JuCo before that. The offensive line isn't exactly the most mentally demanding position on the field, and Aaron Kromer has a track record of developing linemen from Division II schools and turning them into immediate starters. I am excited to see what he can do, and unlike many, apparently, I'm willing to wait to see him do it before I pass judgment.
#50 Overall, Jon Bostic, MLB, Florida
Bostic actually makes the most sense of any linebacker that was in the draft for the Bears, if you think about it. He's not undersized for an MLB, like Arthur Brown, so he's less likely to struggle in the middle in the NFL, he was the 3rd-fastest linebacker at the combine with a 4.61 40, so he's more than capable of dropping deep into coverage in the Tampa Two, and he also made all of the calls in a Tampa Two style defense at Florida. I think Arthur Brown may have been a more tempting athletic prospect, but Bostic is as natural a fit as they were going to find, and the presence of DJ Williams keeps the pressure to produce immediately off of him.
#117 Overall, Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers
He's going to draw a ton of comparisons to Lance Briggs, who he's obviously intended to provide depth and a potential heir for, given his position, their similar measurables (and matching 4.7 40 times at their respective combines), and that's both unfair and understandable. No one can necessarily be Lance Briggs, arguably one of the two greatest players to ever play the OLB in a Tampa Two style defense, but Greene's numbers in college are promising in two categories where Lance has often thrived: impact tackles (gains of two yards or less that prevented first downs), where Greene led all college linebackers last year with 27, and forced fumbles (15 for his career). A lot of people will question his numbers by saying the scheme at Rutgers was designed to give him a free shot at the ball-carrier, but that's exactly what the Bears defense does for Briggs. It may have taken Urlacher's very rapid demise to give the organization some urgency, but it's nice to see them actively prepare for a world without their superstar linebacker. The Greene and Bostic picks should also put to a rest for all time the conspiracy theories that the Bears are still potentially planning a switch to a 3-4 in the near future, because Greene and Bostic fit exactly one type of defense perfectly, and it's the one they're already running.
#163 Overall, Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech
You never want to overrate the potential impact of a late round offensive lineman, but there's cause for optimism with Mills. He has good size and arm length and he was considered by many to be a potential 3rd round pick. Even more importantly is, as I mentioned with Kyle Long, Aaron Kromer's track record as an offensive line coach: Jahri Evans (4th Rd, Division II Bloomsburg University), Carl Nicks (5th Rd, transferred to Nebraska after two years of JuCo), Jermon Bushrod (4th Rd, FCS Towson), and Zach Strief (7th Rd, Northwestern) were all mid to late round picks mostly from small schools who have become Pro Bowl or All Pro caliber linemen under Kromer's guidance. Nicks and Evans both started and played well as rookies as well, so there's reason to believe that if Kromer thinks Long and Mills can play right from the start, he's probably right. Even if Mills is just a potential future starter and a guy who can add to the competition this year, it's nice to see that Emery has now added five completely new players to the offensive line, and that guys like Webb and Carimi (and hopefully even Garza) will have to earn both their jobs and their roster spots. The overhaul was long awaited, but better late than never.
#188 Overall, Cornelius Washington, DE, Georgia
It's never a Bears draft without a defensive lineman (although we finally broke the 8 years long streak of safeties), but I didn't look into many defensive ends before the draft so I can't tell you shit about this guy. Mike Mayock says he's fast (4.55 40) and he likes the pick for a situational pass rusher. With Wootton, McClellin, and Kyle Moore (and the still possible return of Izzy) he seems to have the toughest task of cracking the roster of any of the picks, but we'll see.
#236 Overall, Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State
Oh man do I approve of this. Marquess Wilson, ironically, is the only guy the Bears drafted that I've actually watched several games of, and I was hoping all along he might be an option for the team at some point. He's a first day talent (I don't know about first round, although some had him there before last season) who fell hard because of some admittedly concerning personal issues. As Iggins! can tell you, I'm not one to get scared off by drinking or pot (DRAFT THE WEED GUY! is one of my favorite chants on draft day, actually), but a guy who walked out on his team and made apparently false claims of abuse against his coaches probably has some maturity issues. In the seventh round, though? Absolutely worth the risk. He's 6'4'', he plays much faster than his 40 time (4.51, still not bad), and, like Jeffery and Marshall, makes himself a deep threat less through speed than his ability to create separation and fight for jump balls. In a best case scenario he's a solid #3 who rotates with Bennett, but he's also a similar type of player who can step in as a potential starter on the outside if Jeffery struggles or is injured again in year two. I just can't see a downside here.
Wilson also illustrates the difference between Phil Emery and Jerry Angelo's philosophies. If you look at the receivers that Jerry took in the 6th or 7th rounds (Derek Kinder, Marcus Monk, Jamin Elliot) or guys he signed as UFAs like Sanzenfucker or Mike Haas, Angelo preferred to go with productive college starters who lacked measurables but seemed valuable to a team through their hard work and potential production on special teams. Wilson was definitely productive (averaged 97 yards per game in his career at WSU), but Emery clearly values the potential of hitting on another big, physical receiver than on a smaller guy who might be more useful on special teams. High Ceilings, Low Floors (Emery) vs. High Floors, Low Ceilings (Angelo). Not that one option is necessarily better than the other over the long haul, but it certainly gives you more hope in the spring time when camp is still far away.
That's all for now. In short, I'm more than fine with taking a guard with tons of potential at #20 in a very odd draft, even if it may have been a bit of a gamble, but I'm even more excited about the depth and potential from nearly every round of the draft, more so than in recent memory. I can't wait for camp to start. While it's premature to tell whether they'll be any good or not, there's certainly a lot of questions I'm looking forward to seeing them answer. Go Bears.
Tune in to the SKOdCast this Wednesday for even more discussion of the draft.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Goodbye, Brian
As you probably know, the Bears have announced that they've moved on from Brian Urlacher. For the first time in thirteen years, the Bears will go into the season with a different starting MLB.Urlacher supposedly was given an offer of one year, $2 million and opted not to take it. We'll see how that works out for him.
Let's get the basics out of the way before I move on:
1) This was the right move. Anyone who wants to deny that Urlacher was not very good last year is a fool. His numbers were down, Pro Football Focus had him graded at -11.2, and he suffered two major injuries in two years. His on-field play was highly unlikely to return to form. The Bears could very easily replace his production from last year with a street free agent or a rookie. As for his play from 2000-2011, well, Brian wasn't going to give that to you either.
2) Phil Emery is going to take a lot of shit. The word disrespect will be thrown out a lot. Urlacher's leadership will be mentioned incessantly. His teammates will be interviewed and the locker room will be "upset." All of this was said about Olin Kreutz, and he was terrible before retiring less than half of the way through the season. None of these intangibles will add up to a good football player anymore, and none of them would justify committing precious resources to a burned-out player. As for the locker room? They'll shut up and play football because it's their fucking job. Also, understand that the same columnists and jackasses who will wax nostalgic about Brian and criticize the Bears for letting him go are the exact same people who got an entire summer's worth of work out of writing about how the Bears were foolish not to realize he was done last year.
3) I'm aware this leaves the Bears "thin" at linebacker. I have a crazy gut instinct though that they will add players before the season starts in September. This is because I am psychic and can see beyond your mortal realm.
All of the sarcasm aside, this is still sad news, even if it's not bad news. It's difficult to explain what Brian Urlacher meant to any Bears fans who are my age. Those of us who were born or grew up after the Ditka Bears had long since retired or declined spent years suffering at the hands of Dave Wannstedt and Dick Jauron without a single thing to hang our hat on. The team desperately tried to make names out of guys like Erik Kramer, Curtis Conway, and Big Cat Williams, but no one outside of Chicago truly cared.
Urlacher didn't bring respectability to the franchise, as some may say. They were still embarrassing for a good part of his career. But he did give you a reason to watch besides sheer obligation. He was exciting. He was dominant. He had a combination of speed and power that we're probably not going to see again at that position in a generation. He was a Bear worthy of comparison to the guys our Dads rooted for, and we loved him for it.
He was frequently derided as overrated, and to some extent he was. He was a Hall of Fame player, but we had nothing else and so we made him out to be even more than that. We bought his jersey in record numbers and brought him unwarranted criticism just because people were tired of hearing us talk about him even while the team was going 4-12, but he was something to root for, and we really, really needed that.
Later in his career the team really did become respectable, and unlike Sammy Sosa, the last Chicago superstar to make a living out of being the hero of a terrible franchise, he wasn't threatened by the emergence of other stars like Briggs, Tillman, Forte, or even Cutler. He wanted to win. It's a shame they never won it all with him on the roster. They were close, and no one fought harder than he did to get there.
So yes, today is a sad day. I'm sure Erik will have his work cut out for him fighting off the tidal wave of stupid this will unleash, but today we can at least agree with the meatheads on one point. It will really suck to not have Brian Urlacher anymore, even if they won't understand that the Brian Urlacher we all loved disappeared with his knee ligaments in Minnesota last year.
Let's get the basics out of the way before I move on:
1) This was the right move. Anyone who wants to deny that Urlacher was not very good last year is a fool. His numbers were down, Pro Football Focus had him graded at -11.2, and he suffered two major injuries in two years. His on-field play was highly unlikely to return to form. The Bears could very easily replace his production from last year with a street free agent or a rookie. As for his play from 2000-2011, well, Brian wasn't going to give that to you either.
2) Phil Emery is going to take a lot of shit. The word disrespect will be thrown out a lot. Urlacher's leadership will be mentioned incessantly. His teammates will be interviewed and the locker room will be "upset." All of this was said about Olin Kreutz, and he was terrible before retiring less than half of the way through the season. None of these intangibles will add up to a good football player anymore, and none of them would justify committing precious resources to a burned-out player. As for the locker room? They'll shut up and play football because it's their fucking job. Also, understand that the same columnists and jackasses who will wax nostalgic about Brian and criticize the Bears for letting him go are the exact same people who got an entire summer's worth of work out of writing about how the Bears were foolish not to realize he was done last year.
3) I'm aware this leaves the Bears "thin" at linebacker. I have a crazy gut instinct though that they will add players before the season starts in September. This is because I am psychic and can see beyond your mortal realm.
All of the sarcasm aside, this is still sad news, even if it's not bad news. It's difficult to explain what Brian Urlacher meant to any Bears fans who are my age. Those of us who were born or grew up after the Ditka Bears had long since retired or declined spent years suffering at the hands of Dave Wannstedt and Dick Jauron without a single thing to hang our hat on. The team desperately tried to make names out of guys like Erik Kramer, Curtis Conway, and Big Cat Williams, but no one outside of Chicago truly cared.
Urlacher didn't bring respectability to the franchise, as some may say. They were still embarrassing for a good part of his career. But he did give you a reason to watch besides sheer obligation. He was exciting. He was dominant. He had a combination of speed and power that we're probably not going to see again at that position in a generation. He was a Bear worthy of comparison to the guys our Dads rooted for, and we loved him for it.
He was frequently derided as overrated, and to some extent he was. He was a Hall of Fame player, but we had nothing else and so we made him out to be even more than that. We bought his jersey in record numbers and brought him unwarranted criticism just because people were tired of hearing us talk about him even while the team was going 4-12, but he was something to root for, and we really, really needed that.
Later in his career the team really did become respectable, and unlike Sammy Sosa, the last Chicago superstar to make a living out of being the hero of a terrible franchise, he wasn't threatened by the emergence of other stars like Briggs, Tillman, Forte, or even Cutler. He wanted to win. It's a shame they never won it all with him on the roster. They were close, and no one fought harder than he did to get there.
So yes, today is a sad day. I'm sure Erik will have his work cut out for him fighting off the tidal wave of stupid this will unleash, but today we can at least agree with the meatheads on one point. It will really suck to not have Brian Urlacher anymore, even if they won't understand that the Brian Urlacher we all loved disappeared with his knee ligaments in Minnesota last year.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Me and Marty B: Bears Free Agency So Far
Oh, hello there. You may have forgotten we existed. That's okay. We kind of did, too. Sure, I probably should have done my yearly methodical player reviews to fill the space between our discussion of Lovie/Trestman and free agency, but there were other, more important things and I didn't feel like doing it. Sue me.
The last two days, however, have provided actual activity to discuss, so let's get to it.
As you all know by now, the Bears have made two major free agent signings: LT Jermon Bushrod of the Saints for five years and nearly $40 million, and TE Martellus Bennett for a rumored four years and $20 million. If you've been following those developments on Twitter than you also know two things: Bushrod is overpaid and was barely better than J'Marcus Webb this year and Marty B. is somewhat crazy.
Here's what I have to say about point one: Yes, if you are just looking at Bushrod as an upgrade at left tackle, he probably didn't out play J'Marcus Webb enough in 2012 to justify his contract. According to Pro Football Focus, the source of this controversy, Webb finished the year with an overall grade of -0.8 while Bushrod finished at +1.5. That's not a vast difference, certainly not one worth $7 million annually, so clearly the Bears made a mistake, right?
I disagree. Bushrod did have a slow start this year (after starting at -7.5 in his first three games, he was much closer to his 2011 form the rest of the year), but still finished with a positive grade. He also was one of the top ten tackles in all of football in 2011 at +14.0, while Webb is just a year removed from a -16.2 in 2011. That right there IS a vast difference.
Considering Bushrod is just 28, there's no reason to believe that a repeat of his above-average 2012 is what to expect going forward, rather than his stellar 2011. There's also little reason to believe that Webb, who had to make monumental leaps just to reach his slightly-below-aveage peak this year, is going to develop much beyond that. Their metrics also don't account for the fact that Webb frequently required the assistance of tight ends and runningbacks, while Bushrod was left alone on nearly 80% of Drew Brees' 697 dropbacks (the Bears attempted just 529 dropbacks). As the Pro Football Focus guys themselves said, "With a fan base baying for a change of plan at left tackle it would’ve been a very brave move to leave Webb in place for the 2013 season."
Even if Bushrod simply repeats his 2012 performance, however, that's still not an indication that the Bears were wrong to sign him. This team needed to add a proven tackle. They made a hard push for Phil Loadholt, the Vikings right tackle, before he chose to stay in Minnesota. That right there should tell you that they understand that Webb wasn't a disaster at LT this year. Once Loadholt was off the market, the Bears were left with a market that contained more good LTs than RTs, and they realized that adding a quality tackle is better than not adding one.
Lost in all of this is that the Bears aren't cutting J'Marcus Webb, who suddenly has a strangely large and dedicate following despite years of often unwarranted criticism. Emery's already announced that Webb will compete at right tackle, if he wins the job (and sorry, Gabe Carimi, but there's little reason to believe he won't), there's plenty of reason for optimism. Webb's light years ahead of the raw, undisciplined rookie who posted a -32.5 grade in 9 starts at RT in 2010. This is a move that may have improved both tackle positions, and not just provided a marginal upgrade at one. It's a good move.
As for point two: Oh yeah, Marty B. is crazy. That's a well-established pattern from the day at the combine when he answered a question regarding him playing both basketball and football in college with "football is my wife, basketball is my mistress." In his press conference today he referred to himself as the Black Unicorn and said he signed with the Bears because they're his second favorite animal after dinosaurs.
He's also a very good tight end. After emerging from Jason Witten's shadow in Dallas and signing with the Giants last year he caught 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 TDs. He's also what Pro Football Focus described as an elite blocker, and that factored into their statement that Bennett was undoubtedly the best TE on the market, even if Jared Cook was a flashier receiver. This is a huge upgrade over Kellen Davis (fun stat: he dropped 29.6% of all catchable balls thrown his way last year. Woof), but you didn't need me to tell you that.
The next few days and weeks before the draft will truly show us what Phil Emery is made of, as he juggles the monumental tasks of creating cap space, cutting veterans (Kellen Davis, Matt Toeiana, and Matt Spaeth all got the axe today or will in the next few days), and figuring out if/how to re-sign the teams own veterans and add a few other bargains, if possible. As Emery himself said in his press conference, the Bushrod and Bennett moves are also important in that they gave the team a great deal of flexibility in the draft. I'm sure I'll have more to say by then.
Conclusion: These were good moves. Go Bears.
The last two days, however, have provided actual activity to discuss, so let's get to it.
As you all know by now, the Bears have made two major free agent signings: LT Jermon Bushrod of the Saints for five years and nearly $40 million, and TE Martellus Bennett for a rumored four years and $20 million. If you've been following those developments on Twitter than you also know two things: Bushrod is overpaid and was barely better than J'Marcus Webb this year and Marty B. is somewhat crazy.
Here's what I have to say about point one: Yes, if you are just looking at Bushrod as an upgrade at left tackle, he probably didn't out play J'Marcus Webb enough in 2012 to justify his contract. According to Pro Football Focus, the source of this controversy, Webb finished the year with an overall grade of -0.8 while Bushrod finished at +1.5. That's not a vast difference, certainly not one worth $7 million annually, so clearly the Bears made a mistake, right?
I disagree. Bushrod did have a slow start this year (after starting at -7.5 in his first three games, he was much closer to his 2011 form the rest of the year), but still finished with a positive grade. He also was one of the top ten tackles in all of football in 2011 at +14.0, while Webb is just a year removed from a -16.2 in 2011. That right there IS a vast difference.
Considering Bushrod is just 28, there's no reason to believe that a repeat of his above-average 2012 is what to expect going forward, rather than his stellar 2011. There's also little reason to believe that Webb, who had to make monumental leaps just to reach his slightly-below-aveage peak this year, is going to develop much beyond that. Their metrics also don't account for the fact that Webb frequently required the assistance of tight ends and runningbacks, while Bushrod was left alone on nearly 80% of Drew Brees' 697 dropbacks (the Bears attempted just 529 dropbacks). As the Pro Football Focus guys themselves said, "With a fan base baying for a change of plan at left tackle it would’ve been a very brave move to leave Webb in place for the 2013 season."
Even if Bushrod simply repeats his 2012 performance, however, that's still not an indication that the Bears were wrong to sign him. This team needed to add a proven tackle. They made a hard push for Phil Loadholt, the Vikings right tackle, before he chose to stay in Minnesota. That right there should tell you that they understand that Webb wasn't a disaster at LT this year. Once Loadholt was off the market, the Bears were left with a market that contained more good LTs than RTs, and they realized that adding a quality tackle is better than not adding one.
Lost in all of this is that the Bears aren't cutting J'Marcus Webb, who suddenly has a strangely large and dedicate following despite years of often unwarranted criticism. Emery's already announced that Webb will compete at right tackle, if he wins the job (and sorry, Gabe Carimi, but there's little reason to believe he won't), there's plenty of reason for optimism. Webb's light years ahead of the raw, undisciplined rookie who posted a -32.5 grade in 9 starts at RT in 2010. This is a move that may have improved both tackle positions, and not just provided a marginal upgrade at one. It's a good move.
As for point two: Oh yeah, Marty B. is crazy. That's a well-established pattern from the day at the combine when he answered a question regarding him playing both basketball and football in college with "football is my wife, basketball is my mistress." In his press conference today he referred to himself as the Black Unicorn and said he signed with the Bears because they're his second favorite animal after dinosaurs.
He's also a very good tight end. After emerging from Jason Witten's shadow in Dallas and signing with the Giants last year he caught 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 TDs. He's also what Pro Football Focus described as an elite blocker, and that factored into their statement that Bennett was undoubtedly the best TE on the market, even if Jared Cook was a flashier receiver. This is a huge upgrade over Kellen Davis (fun stat: he dropped 29.6% of all catchable balls thrown his way last year. Woof), but you didn't need me to tell you that.
The next few days and weeks before the draft will truly show us what Phil Emery is made of, as he juggles the monumental tasks of creating cap space, cutting veterans (Kellen Davis, Matt Toeiana, and Matt Spaeth all got the axe today or will in the next few days), and figuring out if/how to re-sign the teams own veterans and add a few other bargains, if possible. As Emery himself said in his press conference, the Bushrod and Bennett moves are also important in that they gave the team a great deal of flexibility in the draft. I'm sure I'll have more to say by then.
Conclusion: These were good moves. Go Bears.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Why Alshon Jeffery Needs to Restore My Faith in Humanity
So far this preseason Bears rookie receiver Alshon Jeffery has given me hope about a great. many. things. He's currently got 7 receptions for 97 yards in his first two games, which, added onto the many excellent reviews he's drawn throughout training camp, give us all a reason to think that maybe, for once, the Bears have drafted a good wide receiver.
Now it's no surprise to anyone that the Bears have had about as many good wide receivers in the last 50 years as they have quarterbacks (yes, I understand that's reciprocal), but even more upsetting is the fact that even the few relatively decent guys they've thrown out there were often free agent pickups or castoffs. The Bears draft history with wide receivers the last 20 years (we'll pick that arbitrary number because why the hell not) is replete with failure. So why not look back at all of them?
1992: John Brown, WR, Houston, 7th rd, 192nd Pick: John Brown, one of the many wide receivers to benefit from the wide open Run N Shoot offense that got Andre Ware and David Klingler drafted, was the Bears seventh round draft choice in 1992. He never made the team, and dolefully predicted Ditka's firing that year by stating that he "saw now that the crimes of this coaching staff cannot be purged away but with blood."
1993: Curtis Conway, WR, USC, 1st Rd, 7th Pick: Curtis Conway is kind of a polarizing figure among Bears fans I know. Lots of people my age (grew up post Ditka-era) latched onto him as one of the few exciting players the 90s Bears had. Others saw him as an underachiever. I'm kind of in both camps. On one hand, when Kramer-to-Curtis was working it was as ballstastic of a connection as any this franchise has had until, well, this year. On the other hand, THEY SHOULD HAVE TAKEN JEROME BETTIS. C-Way suffered from inconsistency and troubles at QB, as he only had two 1,000 yd seasons which were also the only two years where he played all 16 games. Still, he finished with the #5th most receiving yards in Bears history (two of the guys ahead of him are a TE and an RB. Jesus this team sucks at throwing and catching footballs) and must be considered one of the few successes on this list. He's also a cool dude to talk to on Twitter.
1994: Lloyd Hill, WR, Texas Tech, 6th Rd, 170th Pick: Like John Brown, Lloyd never made the team. He did capture Harper's Ferry, though.
1995: Jack Jackson, WR, Florida, 4th Rd, 116th Pick: A highly productive player at Florida (where he caught passes from Danny Wuerffel and Shane Matthews), Jackson made 4 catches for 39 yds in 12 games as a Bear. He also sounds like a character from a Stan Lee comic, where everyone had to have alliterative names.
1996: Bobby Engram, WR, Penn State, 2nd Rd, 52nd Pick: Bobby Engram had a 14 year career as an incredibly successful poster boy for the sure-handed slot receiver. He's easily the most productive receiver the Bears have drafted during the last two decades, so he naturally spent just five of those years in Chicago. Had to make room on the roster for David Terrell, I guess. At least we now have his spiritual descendant, Earl Bennett, the BBE.
1997: Marcus Robinson, WR, South Carolina, 4th Rd, 108th Pick: You want to learn a fun trick? Mention Marcus Robinson around Iggins! and laugh as he bursts into tears, yanks out his own hair, curses Cade McNown's name, and cuts his own wrists. Marcus was the one explosive, big receiver the Bears have had in my lifetime. In 1999 he was unstoppable, going up high to haul in wobbly ducks from Matthews, Miller, and McNown for a franchise record 1400 yds and 9 TDs. Unfortunately, all of the leaping he did to catch McNown's flutterballs left his back exposed to vicious hits from defenders, and he never again started more than 11 games in a season or managed more than 738 yds receiving. He finished his career with 4,699 receiving yards, meaning 30% of his career production came in just 1 of his 9 years in the NFL. Such a waste. But at least there's some precedent for a receiver from South Carolina having a 1400 yard season for the Bears?
1999: D'Wayne Bates, WR, Northwestern, 3rd Rd, 71st Pick: The first of three receivers the Bears took in the 1999 NFL draft (they needed to load up on talent for Gary Crowton's wide open offense. Ha), Bates had 80 catches for 1,061 yds and 6 TDs. Those would be fine totals for a single season. D'Wayne managed those jaw-dropping numbers in four years. Woof.
1999: Marty Booker, WR, Louisiana-Monroe, 3rd Rd, 78th Pick: Man, the Bears really tried hard for a long time to convince us that Marty Booker was an elite receiver, didn't they? He's certainly the most productive receiver on this list, and, like Conway, is one of the few players in Bears history to record back to back 1000 yd seasons. We know better, however. Do you ever think a defense Feared Marty Booker? For chrissake, when he had his first 1,000 yd season in 2001 he averaged 10.7 yards per catch. You can blame John Shoop's conservatism, but Marty was merely the guy most capable of catching 100 eight yard hitches a year. Let's not even discuss his 211 yard comeback tour in 2008. However, by the standards of this list, Marty, the #6 receiver in Bears history, is a huge success.
1999: Sulecio Sanford, WR, Middle Tennesse State, 7th Rd, 221st Pick: Never made the team, despite his awesome name.
2000: Dez White, WR, Georgia Tech, 3rd Rd, 69th Pick: Jesus, did Dez White really start 31 games for this team? And he managed 1667 yards and a whopping 11.3 yards per catch while doing so? Guh. John Shoop.
2000: Frank Murphy, WR, Kansas State, 6th Rd, 170th Pick: No, I don't remember Frank Murphy, but he apparently played five seasons in the NFL had a total of eight catches. He sure sounds like a Bears receiver.
2001: David Terrell, WR, Michigan, 1st Rd, 8th Pick: God damn David Terrell. Never mind that he bitched incessantly about not getting any opportunities when he dropped every single one of the 10 deep balls that found their way to him in his career. Never mind his constant trash talk despite never gaining more than 650 yards in a single season. Never mind that Braylon Edwards was scared to wear #1 at Michigan because it was tainted by David Terrell. The only thing you need to know about David Terrell is that Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson were available in that draft and the Bears took David Terrell. Fuck, TJ Houshmanzadeh was in that draft and He was fucking better than David Terrell. Godddammit.
2002: Jamin Elliott, WR, Delaware, 6th Rd, 203rd Pick: Played in 2 games, had zero career receptions, but was unstoppable in Madden 2003 if you went 5 wide and had him run a slant to the sideline.
2003: Bobby Wade, WR, Arizona, 5th Rd, 139th Pick; & Justin Gage 5th Rd, WR, Missouri, 5th Rd, 143rd Pick: There was a time when some Bears fans tried to argue that Jerry Angelo was great at finding hidden gems late in drafts because he found both Bobby Wade and Justin Gage in the 5th round. Guh. If you don't remember, Justin Gage was the big, tall, slow one and Bobby was the short, quick one who dropped everything, got cut the day after muffing multiple punts in one game, and later stirred up shit as a Viking by claiming that Brian Urlacher called Jay Cutler a pussy. The two of them combined for 5,816 yards in 211 career games. Awesome.
2004: Bernard Berrian, WR, Fresno State, 3rd Rd, 78th Pick: There was totally a time when Bernard Berrian was one of Jerry's hidden gems as well. After averaging a whopping 236 yds a season in his first two injury-plagued years, Berrian seemed to emerge as a great deep threat in 2006 before finishing just shy of 1,000 yds in 2007 while ranking among the league leaders in drops. Berrian demanded an annual salary of 8 million dollars despite no 1,000 yard seasons in his career and fortunately convinced the fucking Vikings to pay that before the Bears lost their minds and did it themselves. He's now out of the NFL after doing literally nothing since 2008.
2005: Mark Bradley, WR, Oklahoma, 2nd Rd, 39th Pick: Has there ever been a better receiver to never gain more than 380 yards receiving in a season? Mark Bradley was always perpetually on the verge of breaking out, or so we thought, but was actually just shitty. He looked great in exactly one career game against the Lions in 2005 where he caught a couple of skinny posts before shredding his knee. He was never the same and ended up in Lovie's doghouse frequently. Despite tons of supposed potential, he managed just 1283 yards in 5 NFL seasons.
2005: Airese Currie, WR, Clemson, 5th Rd, 140th Pick: Despite the God Of War's awesome name, he never caught a single pass in the NFL. He had a 167 yards for the Hamilton Tiger Cats of the CFL in 2009, though.
2008: Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt, 3rd Rd, 70th Pick: Okay, we all know how much I love the BBE. Statistically, however, he's not been very impressive. In 2008 he sat out all year as he learned the playbook. In 2009 he put up respectable numbers (54 receptions, 717 yds) in his first year as a starter. The last two years he's emerged as an excellent 3rd down option and slot receiver, but has been injured often and disappeared following Jay Cutler's injury last year. Hopefully this season will be Earl's most productive yet, with a full year of him and Cutler together and no pressure on him to be anything more than what he is.
2008: Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas, 7th Rd, 248th Pick: Never made an NFL roster.
2009: Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma, 3rd Rd, 99th Pick: the first of three receivers taken by the Bears in the 2009 draft, Juaquin Iglesias was apparently the Spanish translation of Mark Bradley, as he never recorded a single catch for the team.
2009: Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian, 5th Rd, 140th Pick: Now that Marshall and Jeffery are here to make Knox superfluous even if he heals in time to make a contribution to the Bears this year, it's time to breathe easy and admit that Johnny Knox is probably not that good at football. He's definitely a certifiable deep threat (19.2 yards per catch the last two years), but he's also a terrible route runner with bad hands who shirks from big hits and has no ability to go up for a contested ball. I feel terrible about what happened to him but am okay with the fact that he'll never be more than the #3 receiver if he ever takes the field in a Bears uniform again (which I doubt).
2009: Derek Kinder, WR, Pittsburgh, 7th Rd, 251st Pick: The latest in the fine tradition of meaningless 7th round picks wasted on wide receivers, Kinder never took an NFL snap.
So there you have it. In 20 years the Bears have spent 25 draft picks on wide receivers. Of the 24 before Alshon Jeffery, 10 never started a game or even made the roster. 1 (David Terrell) was a colossal first round bust. Others made utterly forgettable minor contributions (Mark Bradley, Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, D'wayne Bates, Dez White).
Boiled down, the Bears have drafted a grand total of seven "productive" receivers in 20 years, and that's stretching the term a bit. They drafted one legitimate yet inconsistent starter in Curtis Conway, 1 reliable and terribly unexciting starter in Marty Booker, two very good slot receivers in Earl Bennett and Bobby Engram (who had all of his best years AFTER he left), 2 soft, mediocre deep threats (Bernard Berrian and Johnny Knox) and 1 one was Marcus Robinson, who is featured in the dictionary under "one year wonder." So let's hope their 25th attempt at finding one, consistent, dynamic starting wide receiver is much more successful than their previous 24. If not, at least they traded for one. Thank God for Phil Emery.
Now it's no surprise to anyone that the Bears have had about as many good wide receivers in the last 50 years as they have quarterbacks (yes, I understand that's reciprocal), but even more upsetting is the fact that even the few relatively decent guys they've thrown out there were often free agent pickups or castoffs. The Bears draft history with wide receivers the last 20 years (we'll pick that arbitrary number because why the hell not) is replete with failure. So why not look back at all of them?
1992: John Brown, WR, Houston, 7th rd, 192nd Pick: John Brown, one of the many wide receivers to benefit from the wide open Run N Shoot offense that got Andre Ware and David Klingler drafted, was the Bears seventh round draft choice in 1992. He never made the team, and dolefully predicted Ditka's firing that year by stating that he "saw now that the crimes of this coaching staff cannot be purged away but with blood."
1993: Curtis Conway, WR, USC, 1st Rd, 7th Pick: Curtis Conway is kind of a polarizing figure among Bears fans I know. Lots of people my age (grew up post Ditka-era) latched onto him as one of the few exciting players the 90s Bears had. Others saw him as an underachiever. I'm kind of in both camps. On one hand, when Kramer-to-Curtis was working it was as ballstastic of a connection as any this franchise has had until, well, this year. On the other hand, THEY SHOULD HAVE TAKEN JEROME BETTIS. C-Way suffered from inconsistency and troubles at QB, as he only had two 1,000 yd seasons which were also the only two years where he played all 16 games. Still, he finished with the #5th most receiving yards in Bears history (two of the guys ahead of him are a TE and an RB. Jesus this team sucks at throwing and catching footballs) and must be considered one of the few successes on this list. He's also a cool dude to talk to on Twitter.
1994: Lloyd Hill, WR, Texas Tech, 6th Rd, 170th Pick: Like John Brown, Lloyd never made the team. He did capture Harper's Ferry, though.
1995: Jack Jackson, WR, Florida, 4th Rd, 116th Pick: A highly productive player at Florida (where he caught passes from Danny Wuerffel and Shane Matthews), Jackson made 4 catches for 39 yds in 12 games as a Bear. He also sounds like a character from a Stan Lee comic, where everyone had to have alliterative names.
1996: Bobby Engram, WR, Penn State, 2nd Rd, 52nd Pick: Bobby Engram had a 14 year career as an incredibly successful poster boy for the sure-handed slot receiver. He's easily the most productive receiver the Bears have drafted during the last two decades, so he naturally spent just five of those years in Chicago. Had to make room on the roster for David Terrell, I guess. At least we now have his spiritual descendant, Earl Bennett, the BBE.
1997: Marcus Robinson, WR, South Carolina, 4th Rd, 108th Pick: You want to learn a fun trick? Mention Marcus Robinson around Iggins! and laugh as he bursts into tears, yanks out his own hair, curses Cade McNown's name, and cuts his own wrists. Marcus was the one explosive, big receiver the Bears have had in my lifetime. In 1999 he was unstoppable, going up high to haul in wobbly ducks from Matthews, Miller, and McNown for a franchise record 1400 yds and 9 TDs. Unfortunately, all of the leaping he did to catch McNown's flutterballs left his back exposed to vicious hits from defenders, and he never again started more than 11 games in a season or managed more than 738 yds receiving. He finished his career with 4,699 receiving yards, meaning 30% of his career production came in just 1 of his 9 years in the NFL. Such a waste. But at least there's some precedent for a receiver from South Carolina having a 1400 yard season for the Bears?
1999: D'Wayne Bates, WR, Northwestern, 3rd Rd, 71st Pick: The first of three receivers the Bears took in the 1999 NFL draft (they needed to load up on talent for Gary Crowton's wide open offense. Ha), Bates had 80 catches for 1,061 yds and 6 TDs. Those would be fine totals for a single season. D'Wayne managed those jaw-dropping numbers in four years. Woof.
1999: Marty Booker, WR, Louisiana-Monroe, 3rd Rd, 78th Pick: Man, the Bears really tried hard for a long time to convince us that Marty Booker was an elite receiver, didn't they? He's certainly the most productive receiver on this list, and, like Conway, is one of the few players in Bears history to record back to back 1000 yd seasons. We know better, however. Do you ever think a defense Feared Marty Booker? For chrissake, when he had his first 1,000 yd season in 2001 he averaged 10.7 yards per catch. You can blame John Shoop's conservatism, but Marty was merely the guy most capable of catching 100 eight yard hitches a year. Let's not even discuss his 211 yard comeback tour in 2008. However, by the standards of this list, Marty, the #6 receiver in Bears history, is a huge success.
1999: Sulecio Sanford, WR, Middle Tennesse State, 7th Rd, 221st Pick: Never made the team, despite his awesome name.
2000: Dez White, WR, Georgia Tech, 3rd Rd, 69th Pick: Jesus, did Dez White really start 31 games for this team? And he managed 1667 yards and a whopping 11.3 yards per catch while doing so? Guh. John Shoop.
2000: Frank Murphy, WR, Kansas State, 6th Rd, 170th Pick: No, I don't remember Frank Murphy, but he apparently played five seasons in the NFL had a total of eight catches. He sure sounds like a Bears receiver.
2001: David Terrell, WR, Michigan, 1st Rd, 8th Pick: God damn David Terrell. Never mind that he bitched incessantly about not getting any opportunities when he dropped every single one of the 10 deep balls that found their way to him in his career. Never mind his constant trash talk despite never gaining more than 650 yards in a single season. Never mind that Braylon Edwards was scared to wear #1 at Michigan because it was tainted by David Terrell. The only thing you need to know about David Terrell is that Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson were available in that draft and the Bears took David Terrell. Fuck, TJ Houshmanzadeh was in that draft and He was fucking better than David Terrell. Godddammit.
2002: Jamin Elliott, WR, Delaware, 6th Rd, 203rd Pick: Played in 2 games, had zero career receptions, but was unstoppable in Madden 2003 if you went 5 wide and had him run a slant to the sideline.
2003: Bobby Wade, WR, Arizona, 5th Rd, 139th Pick; & Justin Gage 5th Rd, WR, Missouri, 5th Rd, 143rd Pick: There was a time when some Bears fans tried to argue that Jerry Angelo was great at finding hidden gems late in drafts because he found both Bobby Wade and Justin Gage in the 5th round. Guh. If you don't remember, Justin Gage was the big, tall, slow one and Bobby was the short, quick one who dropped everything, got cut the day after muffing multiple punts in one game, and later stirred up shit as a Viking by claiming that Brian Urlacher called Jay Cutler a pussy. The two of them combined for 5,816 yards in 211 career games. Awesome.
2004: Bernard Berrian, WR, Fresno State, 3rd Rd, 78th Pick: There was totally a time when Bernard Berrian was one of Jerry's hidden gems as well. After averaging a whopping 236 yds a season in his first two injury-plagued years, Berrian seemed to emerge as a great deep threat in 2006 before finishing just shy of 1,000 yds in 2007 while ranking among the league leaders in drops. Berrian demanded an annual salary of 8 million dollars despite no 1,000 yard seasons in his career and fortunately convinced the fucking Vikings to pay that before the Bears lost their minds and did it themselves. He's now out of the NFL after doing literally nothing since 2008.
2005: Mark Bradley, WR, Oklahoma, 2nd Rd, 39th Pick: Has there ever been a better receiver to never gain more than 380 yards receiving in a season? Mark Bradley was always perpetually on the verge of breaking out, or so we thought, but was actually just shitty. He looked great in exactly one career game against the Lions in 2005 where he caught a couple of skinny posts before shredding his knee. He was never the same and ended up in Lovie's doghouse frequently. Despite tons of supposed potential, he managed just 1283 yards in 5 NFL seasons.
2005: Airese Currie, WR, Clemson, 5th Rd, 140th Pick: Despite the God Of War's awesome name, he never caught a single pass in the NFL. He had a 167 yards for the Hamilton Tiger Cats of the CFL in 2009, though.
2008: Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt, 3rd Rd, 70th Pick: Okay, we all know how much I love the BBE. Statistically, however, he's not been very impressive. In 2008 he sat out all year as he learned the playbook. In 2009 he put up respectable numbers (54 receptions, 717 yds) in his first year as a starter. The last two years he's emerged as an excellent 3rd down option and slot receiver, but has been injured often and disappeared following Jay Cutler's injury last year. Hopefully this season will be Earl's most productive yet, with a full year of him and Cutler together and no pressure on him to be anything more than what he is.
2008: Marcus Monk, WR, Arkansas, 7th Rd, 248th Pick: Never made an NFL roster.
2009: Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma, 3rd Rd, 99th Pick: the first of three receivers taken by the Bears in the 2009 draft, Juaquin Iglesias was apparently the Spanish translation of Mark Bradley, as he never recorded a single catch for the team.
2009: Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian, 5th Rd, 140th Pick: Now that Marshall and Jeffery are here to make Knox superfluous even if he heals in time to make a contribution to the Bears this year, it's time to breathe easy and admit that Johnny Knox is probably not that good at football. He's definitely a certifiable deep threat (19.2 yards per catch the last two years), but he's also a terrible route runner with bad hands who shirks from big hits and has no ability to go up for a contested ball. I feel terrible about what happened to him but am okay with the fact that he'll never be more than the #3 receiver if he ever takes the field in a Bears uniform again (which I doubt).
2009: Derek Kinder, WR, Pittsburgh, 7th Rd, 251st Pick: The latest in the fine tradition of meaningless 7th round picks wasted on wide receivers, Kinder never took an NFL snap.
So there you have it. In 20 years the Bears have spent 25 draft picks on wide receivers. Of the 24 before Alshon Jeffery, 10 never started a game or even made the roster. 1 (David Terrell) was a colossal first round bust. Others made utterly forgettable minor contributions (Mark Bradley, Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, D'wayne Bates, Dez White).
Boiled down, the Bears have drafted a grand total of seven "productive" receivers in 20 years, and that's stretching the term a bit. They drafted one legitimate yet inconsistent starter in Curtis Conway, 1 reliable and terribly unexciting starter in Marty Booker, two very good slot receivers in Earl Bennett and Bobby Engram (who had all of his best years AFTER he left), 2 soft, mediocre deep threats (Bernard Berrian and Johnny Knox) and 1 one was Marcus Robinson, who is featured in the dictionary under "one year wonder." So let's hope their 25th attempt at finding one, consistent, dynamic starting wide receiver is much more successful than their previous 24. If not, at least they traded for one. Thank God for Phil Emery.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Paid the Man: Matt Forte Gets A Contract, Phil Emery Gets a Win, and Steve Rosenbloom is Still a Douche
In case you haven't heard, the Bears agreed to a four year, $32 million contract with Matt Forte today, with $18 million of that guaranteed. This is a good deal on so many levels, but I'm just going to note some of them:
1) The headache is gone. The effect of a distraction like this on a team is often as overrated as the idea of team chemistry. In this case, however, you can't help but be relieved that this story has gone away and the Bears, seemingly for the first time since the Superbowl in 2006, enter a season with mostly positive vibes and few major question marks. This is a good thing.
2) The Bears signed Matt Forte for below market value. Look at some of these contracts that runningbacks around the league signed in the last two years:
Frank Gore: 4 years, $26 million ($13.5 million guaranteed)
Marshawn Lynch: 4 years, $31 million ($17 million guaranteed)
LeSean McCoy: 6 years, $45.6 million ($20 million guaranteed)
DeAngelo Williams: 5 years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed)
Arian Foster: 5 years, $43.5 million ($20.5 million guaranteed)q
Ray Rice (signed today after Forte): 5 years, $40 million ($24 million guaranteed)
I'm not even going to bother with the mega deals signed by Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, since that's a whole different monster, but there's no way anyone could say the Bears didn't just get a bargain on Matt Forte. The only guy in the above list who makes less money than Forte is Frank Gore, who is considerably older and was clearly on a gradual decline before he even inked his deal. The most similar contract is Marshawn Lynch, which is a joke considering Lynch isn't even remotely the kind of receiving threat that Forte is, that he averages just 4.0 ypc for his career (Forte is at 4.2, with a career high 4.9 last year), and that he just had his first 1000 yd season since 2008.
The Forte contract especially looks good when you look at the ludicrous deal given to DeAngelo Williams, who played fewer than half of the Panther's snaps on offense last year and yet gets more money than Forte, who accounted for almost half of all of the Bears total yards from scrimmage.
Ray Rice is probably the player most similar to Forte on that list, and he was able to leverage his way to an extra year and $6 million more in guaranteed money.
3) Phil Emery held his ground. Jerry Angelo lowballed Forte with a contract offer similar to the Frank Gore deal. Forte was insulted and as recently as a few weeks ago was talking about a deal almost identical to what Ray Rice just got. Emery held his ground and refused to go past 18 million guaranteed (which is basically what Forte would have gotten playing on the franchise tag the next two years, only now the Bears have the flexibility to shift that cash around to play with the cap). Emery's other offseason moves, such as the Brandon Marshall trade, the signing of Michael Bush, and the drafting of Alshon Jeffery reduced the team's dependency on Forte and thus his leverage. Emery knew this and negotiated accordingly. Competence of this level from the general manager of the Bears is still mindboggling.
4) This deal apparently irritates Steve Rosenbloom, one of Chicago's most irritating and idiotic columnists. Rosenbloom criticized the deal on The Score, saying that Emery caved and overpaid a runningback in what is "a passing league."
This is stupid on so many levels. One, Emery did not cave in any way. Forte got a deal that was both below market value and well below what he was asking for. How the hell did Emery cave?
Two, f*&k the "passing league" comment. The NFL isn't a passing league. It's a scoring league. The fact that teams like the Patriots, Packers, and Lions score a lot of points and get a lot of yards solely by throwing the ball doesn't somehow invalidate the benefit of a good running game. When the Bears had both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte last year, they were 6th in the NFL in scoring at 26 ppg. During the last five games, with Cutler, when Forte got 20 or more carries in nearly every game, the team was averaging 32 PPG. It would be foolish for the Bears to argue they don't need Matt Forte because it is a "passing league." Their offense is best when they have a running game and it could be argued that they'd be better off than Green Bay or Detroit, both of whom paid for their lack of a running game when it gave teams more time on the clock to take advantage of their shitty secondaries.
Simply put, the Bears locked up Forte for less than he deserved, based on the state of runningbacks around the league, and checked off another item on Phil Emery's very impressive first offseason. The Bears head into training camp now with nothing to worry about besides winning football games. They'll do plenty of that in 2012, and Matt Forte should be a big part of it.
Go Bears.
1) The headache is gone. The effect of a distraction like this on a team is often as overrated as the idea of team chemistry. In this case, however, you can't help but be relieved that this story has gone away and the Bears, seemingly for the first time since the Superbowl in 2006, enter a season with mostly positive vibes and few major question marks. This is a good thing.
2) The Bears signed Matt Forte for below market value. Look at some of these contracts that runningbacks around the league signed in the last two years:
Frank Gore: 4 years, $26 million ($13.5 million guaranteed)
Marshawn Lynch: 4 years, $31 million ($17 million guaranteed)
LeSean McCoy: 6 years, $45.6 million ($20 million guaranteed)
DeAngelo Williams: 5 years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed)
Arian Foster: 5 years, $43.5 million ($20.5 million guaranteed)q
Ray Rice (signed today after Forte): 5 years, $40 million ($24 million guaranteed)
I'm not even going to bother with the mega deals signed by Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, since that's a whole different monster, but there's no way anyone could say the Bears didn't just get a bargain on Matt Forte. The only guy in the above list who makes less money than Forte is Frank Gore, who is considerably older and was clearly on a gradual decline before he even inked his deal. The most similar contract is Marshawn Lynch, which is a joke considering Lynch isn't even remotely the kind of receiving threat that Forte is, that he averages just 4.0 ypc for his career (Forte is at 4.2, with a career high 4.9 last year), and that he just had his first 1000 yd season since 2008.
The Forte contract especially looks good when you look at the ludicrous deal given to DeAngelo Williams, who played fewer than half of the Panther's snaps on offense last year and yet gets more money than Forte, who accounted for almost half of all of the Bears total yards from scrimmage.
Ray Rice is probably the player most similar to Forte on that list, and he was able to leverage his way to an extra year and $6 million more in guaranteed money.
3) Phil Emery held his ground. Jerry Angelo lowballed Forte with a contract offer similar to the Frank Gore deal. Forte was insulted and as recently as a few weeks ago was talking about a deal almost identical to what Ray Rice just got. Emery held his ground and refused to go past 18 million guaranteed (which is basically what Forte would have gotten playing on the franchise tag the next two years, only now the Bears have the flexibility to shift that cash around to play with the cap). Emery's other offseason moves, such as the Brandon Marshall trade, the signing of Michael Bush, and the drafting of Alshon Jeffery reduced the team's dependency on Forte and thus his leverage. Emery knew this and negotiated accordingly. Competence of this level from the general manager of the Bears is still mindboggling.
4) This deal apparently irritates Steve Rosenbloom, one of Chicago's most irritating and idiotic columnists. Rosenbloom criticized the deal on The Score, saying that Emery caved and overpaid a runningback in what is "a passing league."
This is stupid on so many levels. One, Emery did not cave in any way. Forte got a deal that was both below market value and well below what he was asking for. How the hell did Emery cave?
Two, f*&k the "passing league" comment. The NFL isn't a passing league. It's a scoring league. The fact that teams like the Patriots, Packers, and Lions score a lot of points and get a lot of yards solely by throwing the ball doesn't somehow invalidate the benefit of a good running game. When the Bears had both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte last year, they were 6th in the NFL in scoring at 26 ppg. During the last five games, with Cutler, when Forte got 20 or more carries in nearly every game, the team was averaging 32 PPG. It would be foolish for the Bears to argue they don't need Matt Forte because it is a "passing league." Their offense is best when they have a running game and it could be argued that they'd be better off than Green Bay or Detroit, both of whom paid for their lack of a running game when it gave teams more time on the clock to take advantage of their shitty secondaries.
Simply put, the Bears locked up Forte for less than he deserved, based on the state of runningbacks around the league, and checked off another item on Phil Emery's very impressive first offseason. The Bears head into training camp now with nothing to worry about besides winning football games. They'll do plenty of that in 2012, and Matt Forte should be a big part of it.
Go Bears.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Start Kyle Orton's 2012 Half-Assed Bears Draft Predictions
The NFL draft is just a month away, and with a very active and productive free agency period winding down for the Bears (Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush! Hurrah! Re-signing Idonije! Okay! Bringing back Craig Steltz…Wait just a goddamned minute..) it’s time to move our attention on to the main event of the offseason. Now, while Iggins, Mrs. Code Red, and I are preparing mock drafts for a special NFL Draft Prog Bukakke, I figured I’d discuss in a more general nature what I think the Bears should do. My opinion is totally important, because I have a blog, so I figured everyone would want to know.
The Bears are sitting at #19, one of the “cocktease” spots, since they’re about as late in the draft as your team can get without the sweet reward of a playoff appearance. I’d say a trade up is unlikely since the Bears don’t have a surplus of picks to bargain with and there’s really no need for it. I’d rank the teams greatest needs accordingly:
Defensive End: I suppose greatest “need” is a bit of a stretch. I don’t know that the Bears can’t get by with another year of Izzy playing opposite of Peppers, especially with Henry Melton building on a 7 sack season. That said, Lovie’s got one year to make a deep playoff run and the best way to improve the entire defense is to upgrade the pass rush with a true bookend to Julius Peppers. Quinton Coples is the best defensive end in the draft, but there’s no way in hell he’ll make it to 19. Melvin Ingram would be very nice and a slight possibility. I would also accept USC defensive end Nick Perry.
Wide Receiver: Brandon Marshall was an excellent pick up. Everyone knows how much I love the BBE, but he’s an expert slot receiver. Devin Hester at this point is a gimmick and a situational deep threat. Johnny Knox may not play at all this year. Eric Weems is less of a receiver than Hester. Dane Sanzenbacher is a white guy with bad hands. A true #2 wide receiver, would be nice. This is a deep draft at that position, and a guy like Stephen Hill or Alshon Jeffery could slip into the 2nd round.
Offensive Line: Could be either a tackle or a guard. Just another guy with some potential to throw into the mix, as the only lock right now is Garza at center. Chris Williams, Gabe Carimi, and J’Marcus Webb will all compete at tackle, while Edwin Williams, Chris Spencer, Lance Louis, and hopefully INSERT ROOKIE HERE will compete at guard. The Bears offensive line looked bad in the second half thanks to Caleb Hanie’s epileptic pocket presence, but when Cutler went down they had allowed just five sacks in their last five games, were 6th in the NFL in scoring, and they cleared the way for over 2,000 rushing yards last season. With a less idiotic blocking scheme, some help on the outside, and health from Carimi and C. Williams, the line will be better. One more body would help, though.
Then again, Frank Omiyale is gone, so maybe all of the world’s problems went with him. Fuck you, Frank.
Linebacker: They need someone who can push Nick Roach but also has the potential to slid over to MLB down the road. The time for an Heirlacher is nigh. Vontaze Burfict is batshit crazy and reckless and he’s sliding down draft boards. If the Bears can nab him in the middle rounds and train him next to Urlacher and Briggs, that could be a relatively risk-free pick with huge upside down the road.
Safety: It might surprise some reactionary folks that PRO BOWLER Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Chris Conte performed pretty well last year. It’ll surprise no one that the other safety spot was a disaster. I’m not saying the team needs to give up on Major Wright just yet, as he had a good stretch in the middle of season where he was, for the first time in his career, both healthy and effective. They just need another option that’ll let Brad Biggs tweet some more snarky comments about Lovie’s revolving door at safety. And yes, I’m aware Craig Steltz was surprisingly not that awful at times last year. He’s still Craig Steltz.
Cornerback: Charles Tillman is coming off the best year of a career where he’s been very good and I don’t really give a damn if you disagree. That said, the team needs an insurance plan, as he’s not young and has had injury issues in the past. Tim Jennings should be fine for a few years, and you can pencil in DJ Moore at nickel for a long time. This is just a position where you can never have enough depth.
Tight End: I think Kellen Davis is a fine player who allowed just five pressures (none in the last 11 games) and no sacks despite spending more time blocking than damn near any other tight end in the NFL. He’s a great red zone target and I think he’ll be a fine receiving threat in a new offense. No, I do not miss Greg Olsen. That said, the Bears may look for more of a pure receiver at the position to complement Davis, but that’s very, very low on the priority list.
So with all of that, my strategy would be:
1st Rd: Best available DE.
2nd Rd: Best available OL or WR, whichever is higher on their board
3rd: Linebacker
4th Rd: Whatever you didn’t address in Round 2 (maybe a guy like Marvin McNutt would appease Iggins!)
5th Rd: Best Available DE
6th Rd: Who
7th Rd: Cares?
Next month we’ll SKOscast the entire draft and you can all mock how incredibly wrong I am both here and in my mock draft. It’ll be grand. I’m just looking forward to seeing whether or not we can continue our Phil Emery boners or if we’ll have tone it down a notch.
Go Bears.
The Bears are sitting at #19, one of the “cocktease” spots, since they’re about as late in the draft as your team can get without the sweet reward of a playoff appearance. I’d say a trade up is unlikely since the Bears don’t have a surplus of picks to bargain with and there’s really no need for it. I’d rank the teams greatest needs accordingly:
Defensive End: I suppose greatest “need” is a bit of a stretch. I don’t know that the Bears can’t get by with another year of Izzy playing opposite of Peppers, especially with Henry Melton building on a 7 sack season. That said, Lovie’s got one year to make a deep playoff run and the best way to improve the entire defense is to upgrade the pass rush with a true bookend to Julius Peppers. Quinton Coples is the best defensive end in the draft, but there’s no way in hell he’ll make it to 19. Melvin Ingram would be very nice and a slight possibility. I would also accept USC defensive end Nick Perry.
Wide Receiver: Brandon Marshall was an excellent pick up. Everyone knows how much I love the BBE, but he’s an expert slot receiver. Devin Hester at this point is a gimmick and a situational deep threat. Johnny Knox may not play at all this year. Eric Weems is less of a receiver than Hester. Dane Sanzenbacher is a white guy with bad hands. A true #2 wide receiver, would be nice. This is a deep draft at that position, and a guy like Stephen Hill or Alshon Jeffery could slip into the 2nd round.
Offensive Line: Could be either a tackle or a guard. Just another guy with some potential to throw into the mix, as the only lock right now is Garza at center. Chris Williams, Gabe Carimi, and J’Marcus Webb will all compete at tackle, while Edwin Williams, Chris Spencer, Lance Louis, and hopefully INSERT ROOKIE HERE will compete at guard. The Bears offensive line looked bad in the second half thanks to Caleb Hanie’s epileptic pocket presence, but when Cutler went down they had allowed just five sacks in their last five games, were 6th in the NFL in scoring, and they cleared the way for over 2,000 rushing yards last season. With a less idiotic blocking scheme, some help on the outside, and health from Carimi and C. Williams, the line will be better. One more body would help, though.
Then again, Frank Omiyale is gone, so maybe all of the world’s problems went with him. Fuck you, Frank.
Linebacker: They need someone who can push Nick Roach but also has the potential to slid over to MLB down the road. The time for an Heirlacher is nigh. Vontaze Burfict is batshit crazy and reckless and he’s sliding down draft boards. If the Bears can nab him in the middle rounds and train him next to Urlacher and Briggs, that could be a relatively risk-free pick with huge upside down the road.
Safety: It might surprise some reactionary folks that PRO BOWLER Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Chris Conte performed pretty well last year. It’ll surprise no one that the other safety spot was a disaster. I’m not saying the team needs to give up on Major Wright just yet, as he had a good stretch in the middle of season where he was, for the first time in his career, both healthy and effective. They just need another option that’ll let Brad Biggs tweet some more snarky comments about Lovie’s revolving door at safety. And yes, I’m aware Craig Steltz was surprisingly not that awful at times last year. He’s still Craig Steltz.
Cornerback: Charles Tillman is coming off the best year of a career where he’s been very good and I don’t really give a damn if you disagree. That said, the team needs an insurance plan, as he’s not young and has had injury issues in the past. Tim Jennings should be fine for a few years, and you can pencil in DJ Moore at nickel for a long time. This is just a position where you can never have enough depth.
Tight End: I think Kellen Davis is a fine player who allowed just five pressures (none in the last 11 games) and no sacks despite spending more time blocking than damn near any other tight end in the NFL. He’s a great red zone target and I think he’ll be a fine receiving threat in a new offense. No, I do not miss Greg Olsen. That said, the Bears may look for more of a pure receiver at the position to complement Davis, but that’s very, very low on the priority list.
So with all of that, my strategy would be:
1st Rd: Best available DE.
2nd Rd: Best available OL or WR, whichever is higher on their board
3rd: Linebacker
4th Rd: Whatever you didn’t address in Round 2 (maybe a guy like Marvin McNutt would appease Iggins!)
5th Rd: Best Available DE
6th Rd: Who
7th Rd: Cares?
Next month we’ll SKOscast the entire draft and you can all mock how incredibly wrong I am both here and in my mock draft. It’ll be grand. I’m just looking forward to seeing whether or not we can continue our Phil Emery boners or if we’ll have tone it down a notch.
Go Bears.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Everything's Coming Up Cutler
I hesitate to cast any kind of opinion at this point on Phil Emery. For one, there are plenty of people out there who think Lovie is currently pulling the personnel strings. If that's so, kudos to Lovie. For another, if Phil did make the Marshall trade, it's still unwise to judge him before free agency is over and he's conducted his first draft.
That said, I like where things are headed, because so far, every major decision the Bears have made this offseason has been made with Jay Cutler's welfare in mind. That may sound incredibly simple, but it's surprisingly fucking novel for the Bears, mostly because they've gone so long without a franchise QB worth catering to and because the previous GM figured Jay could just magically transform a shitty offensive line and average receiving corp into awesomeness. The fact that Jay came close this year to doing just that before his injury is no reason not to tailor the offense to his every desire.
Let's review:
-The Bears tossed Mike Martz. While I think Mike did a good job of refining Jay's mechanics, no one can deny that a different scheme with more emphasis on protection and the run would be good for Jay.
-The Bears hired Jeremy Bates. I still have my reservations about the whole Two-headed OC monster idea, but Bates was the right guy to pick as the QB coach/passing game coordinator since he and Jay have a good relationship and Bates knows exactly how to utilize Jay's strengths, something Martz always struggled with.
-Frank Omiyale is gone. This one doesn't need much explaining, I just really wanted to get in a final "Fuck you, Frank Omiyale." I'm just kidding, of course. There will be many, many more.
And finally, the Bears made a trade for Brandon Marshall. I'm not going to address the alleged incident in too much detail, other than to note that charges haven't been filed, the accuser waited a full 24 hours before going to the police, and my own personal guess is that Marshall walks away from this without any charges or a suspension.
If we can focus on the on-field stuff (and I think it's safe to do so, because, despite his previous off-field troubles and the supposed risk he carries that has some of the usual meatballs making "team cancer" comments, Marshall's played in at least 15 games every year of his career), this is a tremendous move to pick up Marshall for just two 3rd round picks. Thanks to the Greg Olsen trade, the Bears still have a full draft and this move still leaves them with plenty of cap room. Marshall has always produced, averaging almost 1200 yards a year as a starter despite catching passes from Chad Henne (who couldn't find Marshall in the end zone on a fade route if Marshall was painted orange and was wearing a jet pack), Matt Moore, and (sorry Kyle) Kyle Orton. There's every reason to believe that he can be as productive with Cutler in Chicago as he was in Denver. I applaud.*
It's also a pretty great move to sign Jason Campbell (and to re-sign Josh McCown as the third stringer) in order to back up Cutler. While avid Start Kyle Orton reader and huge Cutler fan PenFoe said that he felt the new QB depth chart was a giant "Fuck You" to Mike Martz, I'd have to argue that it's more of a fuck you to Jerry Angelo, who always considered the back up quarterback position as a nice place to save money (the real fuck you to Martz was the move for Marshall, as the 6'4'' receiver is a nice rebuke to Martz' system of small receivers and Roy Williamses). With the exception of Chris Chandler and Brian Griese, this signing of Jason Campbell is the first notable instance of the Bears signing an established veteran who could potentially start somewhere else as the #2 QB. In the case of Chandler and Griese, the situation was different as well, since Jim Miller and Rex Grossman were nowhere near entrenched and both guys took the job with the clear hope of fighting for playing time. Campbell has no such illusions, which makes this an impressive move.
The Bears also made a couple of good pickups on special teams, signing Blake Costanzo and Eric Weems. Costanzo's ability on special teams is apparently great enough to send Brad Biggs into the levels of ecstasy usually only brought on by Tim Shaw (or Corey Graham. Or Rashied Davis. Or any special teams player that Biggsy thinks the shortsighted Bears will regret letting slip through their fingers).
As for Weems, there's been some chatter from meatheads and the often mistaken Kevin Seifert of ESPN's NFC North blog assuming that this means some kind of woe for Devin Hester's future as a Bear. Those people naturally just ignore the fact that Johnny Knox or Danieal Manning handled most Bears kickoff returns between 2008-2011 anyway and that Manning is gone while Knox may not play at all in 2012. Seifert even quoted some bullshit $10 million roster bonus due to Hester, which Sean Jensen of the Sun Times noted was just an escalator for receiving production that we all know Hester didn't reach.
There are still some major issues remaining, of course, that will really prove whether Phil or Lovie or whoever is running the show here is up to the task:
1) Avoiding a Forte holdout: He's not happy about the franchise tag, and though he's eventually going to sign the tag like everyone else, it would be nice to avoid a holdout. It seems the Bears may be playing hardball by flirting with Michael Bush. I'd really just like this problem to go away.
2) How to address the aging defense: there's an easy solution for this, and his name is Mario Williams. I don't think it's going to work, because Mario's apparently made it clear his concern is being the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. The Bears couldn't, and shouldn't pay that price. So then it gets trickier. As it stands the Bears still need another edge rusher opposite Peppers, a young linebacker who can play OLB and prepare to fill the Urlacher or Briggs spot in the near future, a veteran safety, and an heir to Charles Tillman. Obviously they can't fill all of these spots in one offseason. I'd like to see at least the safety or the DE problem solved in free agency. With the acquisition of Marshall, I'm fine with the 1st round pick going towards a defensive player, and I'm sure Lovie is too.
3) The offensive line: It's hard to remember in the chaos of the Hindenburg-esque end to the season, but there was a time, before Cutler went down and after Mike Martz finally abandoned "his" offense, that things were looking good. Then Chris Williams got hurt, Cutler went down, and it all went to hell. That said, there's still plenty of young talent to work with between Chris Williams (if they re-sign him, and it seems they will, and that he'll compete at tackle as well as guard), Chris Spencer, and Lance Louis, all of whom performed pretty well this year for long stretches. The J'Marcus Webb experiment seems to have failed at left tackle, but he still has some ability and might make a good interior linemen. A healthy Gabe Carimi has to be a potential upgrade at either tackle position. Roberto Garza played well at center and got an extension. If the Bears can sign one veteran guard or tackle to upgrade the unit, that, along with the change in scheme, should result in solid enough protection for Jay in a run-based attack. If not, one of their top two picks should go towards addressing the line once again.
That's really all of the glaring needs I can think of at the moment. It's hard to remember, but this team was looking really damn good when it was 7-3. That's not to say they can't spend their time adding depth and youth on defense, where it's sorely needed, but this is a roster more in need of an infusion of youth and some quality insurance rather than a complete overhaul.
The fact is, if the braintrust currently running the Bears has truly decided that their best chance for victory lies with giving their quarterback the time and weapons he needs to succeed, then things really have taken a turn for the better.
*- I should state that, should Marshall eventually be charged and found guilty of punching a woman in the face, I do not support assaulting women and I certainly will acknowledge that he's a jackass. As of now, though, it's all mere allegation and hearsay and most of the sources I generally believe to be reliable think that this will not result in lost playing time for Marshall.
That said, I like where things are headed, because so far, every major decision the Bears have made this offseason has been made with Jay Cutler's welfare in mind. That may sound incredibly simple, but it's surprisingly fucking novel for the Bears, mostly because they've gone so long without a franchise QB worth catering to and because the previous GM figured Jay could just magically transform a shitty offensive line and average receiving corp into awesomeness. The fact that Jay came close this year to doing just that before his injury is no reason not to tailor the offense to his every desire.
Let's review:
-The Bears tossed Mike Martz. While I think Mike did a good job of refining Jay's mechanics, no one can deny that a different scheme with more emphasis on protection and the run would be good for Jay.
-The Bears hired Jeremy Bates. I still have my reservations about the whole Two-headed OC monster idea, but Bates was the right guy to pick as the QB coach/passing game coordinator since he and Jay have a good relationship and Bates knows exactly how to utilize Jay's strengths, something Martz always struggled with.
-Frank Omiyale is gone. This one doesn't need much explaining, I just really wanted to get in a final "Fuck you, Frank Omiyale." I'm just kidding, of course. There will be many, many more.
And finally, the Bears made a trade for Brandon Marshall. I'm not going to address the alleged incident in too much detail, other than to note that charges haven't been filed, the accuser waited a full 24 hours before going to the police, and my own personal guess is that Marshall walks away from this without any charges or a suspension.
If we can focus on the on-field stuff (and I think it's safe to do so, because, despite his previous off-field troubles and the supposed risk he carries that has some of the usual meatballs making "team cancer" comments, Marshall's played in at least 15 games every year of his career), this is a tremendous move to pick up Marshall for just two 3rd round picks. Thanks to the Greg Olsen trade, the Bears still have a full draft and this move still leaves them with plenty of cap room. Marshall has always produced, averaging almost 1200 yards a year as a starter despite catching passes from Chad Henne (who couldn't find Marshall in the end zone on a fade route if Marshall was painted orange and was wearing a jet pack), Matt Moore, and (sorry Kyle) Kyle Orton. There's every reason to believe that he can be as productive with Cutler in Chicago as he was in Denver. I applaud.*
It's also a pretty great move to sign Jason Campbell (and to re-sign Josh McCown as the third stringer) in order to back up Cutler. While avid Start Kyle Orton reader and huge Cutler fan PenFoe said that he felt the new QB depth chart was a giant "Fuck You" to Mike Martz, I'd have to argue that it's more of a fuck you to Jerry Angelo, who always considered the back up quarterback position as a nice place to save money (the real fuck you to Martz was the move for Marshall, as the 6'4'' receiver is a nice rebuke to Martz' system of small receivers and Roy Williamses). With the exception of Chris Chandler and Brian Griese, this signing of Jason Campbell is the first notable instance of the Bears signing an established veteran who could potentially start somewhere else as the #2 QB. In the case of Chandler and Griese, the situation was different as well, since Jim Miller and Rex Grossman were nowhere near entrenched and both guys took the job with the clear hope of fighting for playing time. Campbell has no such illusions, which makes this an impressive move.
The Bears also made a couple of good pickups on special teams, signing Blake Costanzo and Eric Weems. Costanzo's ability on special teams is apparently great enough to send Brad Biggs into the levels of ecstasy usually only brought on by Tim Shaw (or Corey Graham. Or Rashied Davis. Or any special teams player that Biggsy thinks the shortsighted Bears will regret letting slip through their fingers).
As for Weems, there's been some chatter from meatheads and the often mistaken Kevin Seifert of ESPN's NFC North blog assuming that this means some kind of woe for Devin Hester's future as a Bear. Those people naturally just ignore the fact that Johnny Knox or Danieal Manning handled most Bears kickoff returns between 2008-2011 anyway and that Manning is gone while Knox may not play at all in 2012. Seifert even quoted some bullshit $10 million roster bonus due to Hester, which Sean Jensen of the Sun Times noted was just an escalator for receiving production that we all know Hester didn't reach.
There are still some major issues remaining, of course, that will really prove whether Phil or Lovie or whoever is running the show here is up to the task:
1) Avoiding a Forte holdout: He's not happy about the franchise tag, and though he's eventually going to sign the tag like everyone else, it would be nice to avoid a holdout. It seems the Bears may be playing hardball by flirting with Michael Bush. I'd really just like this problem to go away.
2) How to address the aging defense: there's an easy solution for this, and his name is Mario Williams. I don't think it's going to work, because Mario's apparently made it clear his concern is being the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. The Bears couldn't, and shouldn't pay that price. So then it gets trickier. As it stands the Bears still need another edge rusher opposite Peppers, a young linebacker who can play OLB and prepare to fill the Urlacher or Briggs spot in the near future, a veteran safety, and an heir to Charles Tillman. Obviously they can't fill all of these spots in one offseason. I'd like to see at least the safety or the DE problem solved in free agency. With the acquisition of Marshall, I'm fine with the 1st round pick going towards a defensive player, and I'm sure Lovie is too.
3) The offensive line: It's hard to remember in the chaos of the Hindenburg-esque end to the season, but there was a time, before Cutler went down and after Mike Martz finally abandoned "his" offense, that things were looking good. Then Chris Williams got hurt, Cutler went down, and it all went to hell. That said, there's still plenty of young talent to work with between Chris Williams (if they re-sign him, and it seems they will, and that he'll compete at tackle as well as guard), Chris Spencer, and Lance Louis, all of whom performed pretty well this year for long stretches. The J'Marcus Webb experiment seems to have failed at left tackle, but he still has some ability and might make a good interior linemen. A healthy Gabe Carimi has to be a potential upgrade at either tackle position. Roberto Garza played well at center and got an extension. If the Bears can sign one veteran guard or tackle to upgrade the unit, that, along with the change in scheme, should result in solid enough protection for Jay in a run-based attack. If not, one of their top two picks should go towards addressing the line once again.
That's really all of the glaring needs I can think of at the moment. It's hard to remember, but this team was looking really damn good when it was 7-3. That's not to say they can't spend their time adding depth and youth on defense, where it's sorely needed, but this is a roster more in need of an infusion of youth and some quality insurance rather than a complete overhaul.
The fact is, if the braintrust currently running the Bears has truly decided that their best chance for victory lies with giving their quarterback the time and weapons he needs to succeed, then things really have taken a turn for the better.
*- I should state that, should Marshall eventually be charged and found guilty of punching a woman in the face, I do not support assaulting women and I certainly will acknowledge that he's a jackass. As of now, though, it's all mere allegation and hearsay and most of the sources I generally believe to be reliable think that this will not result in lost playing time for Marshall.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
I Leave for a Few Months and Everything Goes To Hell
Hello again, internet.
You may have missed me. There's only so much a man can take, really. I spent a hell of a lot of time and far too many words defending Jay Cutler and the Bears before this last season to be able to grin and bear their injury-induced collapse. I'll give the New York Giants all of the credit in the world (having a pass rush like that in a league that's rapidly becoming a pass-only collective is a solid strategy), but looking at the NFL's final four this year it was hard to stomach the fact that the Bears as they were playing before the Cutler injury undoubtedly had one of the best shots they've ever had in my lifetime of making a title run. I'm always going to feel cheated, and I hope you'll forgive me for failing miserably at recapping a series of Caleb Hanie-led debacles.
What could I have said, honestly? The Bears lost their first three games without Cutler despite surrendering a whopping total of three touchdowns. You can criticize people for saying "if x would have happened they'd have won" (and I frequently do), but if you don't think that Bears team makes the playoffs with a full season of Jay Cutler, well, you're a moron.
The only thing I really have left to say on the actual games at the end of the season is this: loyal SKO reader Apex and I attended the Seahawks game together (thanks to his generously offered ticket), and I had a grand old time even if it was a total flop. Thanks, Pex. You're good people.
So let's bring everything up to today. Jerry Angelo, finally, wound up on the firing line. You can scroll back through the archives of this site to find plenty of words expressing my feelings on Jerry. He was never the completely inept boob that most meatballs portrayed him to be. He had definite strengths as a general manager. He could find some great talent (on the defensive side of the ball, at least) hidden in late rounds of the draft. He deserves a great deal of credit for resurrecting this franchise, because, let's face it, if you don't think the team was better off in the Angelo Era than in the McCaskey/Graves/Hatley era, you obviously weren't a Bears fan then. Or you've been attacked with brain slugs, and my heart goes out to you.
The problem with Jerry was a simple matter of time. I think new Cubs wunderkind Theo Epstein said it best: there's a shelf life on GM jobs. Jerry had 11 years to win a title and he didn't do it. His teams were continually weak in areas that Jerry didn't value enough to invest resources in, the offensive line and the wide receiver corps, and it was obvious by now that his philosophy was never going to change. I wish him well, and I'm glad he's gone.
As for Phil Emery? I know absolutely nothing about him. Few people do. He seems like a safe hire, one that can tolerate his inherited head coach and the absurd two-headed OC monster (I've seen college programs try this before. It rarely works, and the Bears are not Boise fucking State. It was a good move to get Jeremy Bates as the QB coach/passing game coordinator). Does this make him a bad hire? Not necessarily. I'd love to pass myself off as having some kind of actual input on Emery, but I don't. If he doesn't address the wide receiver issue in the draft or with what's shaping up to be a potentially promising free agent class he'll have lost me right off the bat. He's already got one strike on him, since, as loyal SKO reader TEC noted, Frank Fucking Omiyale is still on the roster. Again, I agree that a change was necessary. We'll see if this is anything more than a lateral move.
As for Lovie Smith, I don't disagree with keeping him, for one more year at least. This team's gone too far down one road to totally rebuild yet, and they're too devoted to Lovie's system to try and switch schemes and still contend. If he fails again next year, his players on defense will be old enough to force a rebuild anyway and it'll be easy to throw Lovie overboard.
I certainly wasn't sad to say goodbye to Mike Martz. To his credit, he helped fix many of the fundamental flaws in Jay's mechanics, and I truly believe Jay become a better quarterback under Martz.Jay will also be in a much better position to succeed without him.
As for the players on the field, well, at some point I hope to get to another position by position review. I'll only say for now that I can't wait to see Cutler healthy and back on the field, and that I wish Johnny Knox a speedy recovery, even though it appears he may not play this season. That was a terrifying injury. The story of the 2011 Bears, sadly.
That's all for now. I'll be back.
You may have missed me. There's only so much a man can take, really. I spent a hell of a lot of time and far too many words defending Jay Cutler and the Bears before this last season to be able to grin and bear their injury-induced collapse. I'll give the New York Giants all of the credit in the world (having a pass rush like that in a league that's rapidly becoming a pass-only collective is a solid strategy), but looking at the NFL's final four this year it was hard to stomach the fact that the Bears as they were playing before the Cutler injury undoubtedly had one of the best shots they've ever had in my lifetime of making a title run. I'm always going to feel cheated, and I hope you'll forgive me for failing miserably at recapping a series of Caleb Hanie-led debacles.
What could I have said, honestly? The Bears lost their first three games without Cutler despite surrendering a whopping total of three touchdowns. You can criticize people for saying "if x would have happened they'd have won" (and I frequently do), but if you don't think that Bears team makes the playoffs with a full season of Jay Cutler, well, you're a moron.
The only thing I really have left to say on the actual games at the end of the season is this: loyal SKO reader Apex and I attended the Seahawks game together (thanks to his generously offered ticket), and I had a grand old time even if it was a total flop. Thanks, Pex. You're good people.
So let's bring everything up to today. Jerry Angelo, finally, wound up on the firing line. You can scroll back through the archives of this site to find plenty of words expressing my feelings on Jerry. He was never the completely inept boob that most meatballs portrayed him to be. He had definite strengths as a general manager. He could find some great talent (on the defensive side of the ball, at least) hidden in late rounds of the draft. He deserves a great deal of credit for resurrecting this franchise, because, let's face it, if you don't think the team was better off in the Angelo Era than in the McCaskey/Graves/Hatley era, you obviously weren't a Bears fan then. Or you've been attacked with brain slugs, and my heart goes out to you.
The problem with Jerry was a simple matter of time. I think new Cubs wunderkind Theo Epstein said it best: there's a shelf life on GM jobs. Jerry had 11 years to win a title and he didn't do it. His teams were continually weak in areas that Jerry didn't value enough to invest resources in, the offensive line and the wide receiver corps, and it was obvious by now that his philosophy was never going to change. I wish him well, and I'm glad he's gone.
As for Phil Emery? I know absolutely nothing about him. Few people do. He seems like a safe hire, one that can tolerate his inherited head coach and the absurd two-headed OC monster (I've seen college programs try this before. It rarely works, and the Bears are not Boise fucking State. It was a good move to get Jeremy Bates as the QB coach/passing game coordinator). Does this make him a bad hire? Not necessarily. I'd love to pass myself off as having some kind of actual input on Emery, but I don't. If he doesn't address the wide receiver issue in the draft or with what's shaping up to be a potentially promising free agent class he'll have lost me right off the bat. He's already got one strike on him, since, as loyal SKO reader TEC noted, Frank Fucking Omiyale is still on the roster. Again, I agree that a change was necessary. We'll see if this is anything more than a lateral move.
As for Lovie Smith, I don't disagree with keeping him, for one more year at least. This team's gone too far down one road to totally rebuild yet, and they're too devoted to Lovie's system to try and switch schemes and still contend. If he fails again next year, his players on defense will be old enough to force a rebuild anyway and it'll be easy to throw Lovie overboard.
I certainly wasn't sad to say goodbye to Mike Martz. To his credit, he helped fix many of the fundamental flaws in Jay's mechanics, and I truly believe Jay become a better quarterback under Martz.Jay will also be in a much better position to succeed without him.
As for the players on the field, well, at some point I hope to get to another position by position review. I'll only say for now that I can't wait to see Cutler healthy and back on the field, and that I wish Johnny Knox a speedy recovery, even though it appears he may not play this season. That was a terrifying injury. The story of the 2011 Bears, sadly.
That's all for now. I'll be back.
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